农业发展银行粮食信贷政策面临两难选择

农业发展银行作为国家政策性银行，其制定和执行的粮食信贷政策是国家粮食流通体制改革、国家粮食安全和“三农”问题等宏观政策在微观上的体现。其信贷政策制定和执行的好与坏，将直接影响粮食流通体制改革的成败、国家粮食安全和“三农”政策的贯彻与实施。     

对粮食流通体制改革后农发行经营管理面临新形势的调查

今年全国粮食流通体制改革工作会议在北京召开，确定了“放开收购市场，直接补贴粮农，转换企业机制，维护市场秩序，加强宏观调控”为主要内容的粮食流通体制改革新政策。多年来，农业发展银行向粮食收购企业投放了大量贷款，与国家粮食流通体制关系密切，粮食流通体制改革后给农业发展银行带来了什么影响?换句话说，粮食流通体制改革后农业发展银行将面临哪些新形势呢?对此，我们以粮食产量占黑龙江省四分之一的绥化市为例，进行了调查研究。     

完善粮食风险基金包干办法推进全省粮食流通体制改革

这次全省粮食工作会议是学习和贯彻落实全国粮食流通体制改革会议精神，研究部署我省粮食流通体制改革工人的一次重要会议。会议传达了全国粮食工作会议精神，提出了我省的贯彻意见，全省财政部门要认真贯彻执行。下面，我就如何进一步完善我省粮食风险基金包干办法讲几点意见。     

关于当前粮食流通体制改革相关问题研究

今年5月末，国务院颁布了《粮食流通管理条例》，标志着我国延续多年的“计划主渠道”粮食购销体制向以“市场主渠道”新的购销体制的转变，也标志着我国粮食流通体制改革进入了实质操作阶段。但由于粮食流通体制改革是一项复杂的系统工程，改革中的一些深层次问题如何处理将直接影响到本次改革的成败。因此，找准我国粮食流通体制改革的难点，妥善解决好这些问题，成为我们的当务之急。为此，本文在调查的基础上进行了认真分析研究，并提出政策建议。     

粮食购销市场化对山区农民收入与粮食信贷管理的影响及对策

最近国务院出台的《国务院关于进一步深化粮食流通体制改革的意见》(以下称《意见》)掀起了以全面实施粮食购销市场化为标志的新的一轮粮食流通体制改革高潮，这一改革将对我国粮食生产和流通产生深刻的影响，特别是对主产区农民的增收、扩大粮食种植面积和确保国家粮食安全的效果是显而易见的，但对于山区农民的增收和粮食流通管理并不是很有利，一定程度上加大了山区粮食信贷管理工作的难度。     

积极支持粮食企业体制改革努力防范和化解信贷风险

2004年5月19日，国务院决定：全面放开粮食收购市场，积极稳妥推进粮食流通体制改革。随着粮食流通体制改革的不断深入和完善，必将为农业发展银行(简称农发行，下同)实行收购资金封闭管理提供更好的政策和体制环境。但是，从目前状况来看，由于粮食企业普遍家底较薄，地方政府财力支持有限，     

适应粮食流通体制改革新形势切实做好农发行粮食信贷工作

当前,我国粮食流通和生产面临新的形势,农业发展银行必须及时转变观念和经营思路,认真贯彻全国粮食流通体制改革工作会议精神,推进粮食流通体制改革,加强粮食收购资金供应与管理,进一步强化内部管理,促进农发行改革与发展。一、进一步增强新形势下做好收购资金供应与管理的责任     

当前粮食流通体制中存在的问题及对策

根据国务院《关于进一步深化粮食流通体制改革的决定》，全国各地都以“三项政策，一项改革”为重点，积极推进粮食体制改革，经过两年多的运行，已经取得明显的成果，但是，任何重大改革都不可能毕其功于一役，一些长远的和深层次的矛盾还没有得到完全解决，加入世贸组织也要求我们按国际规则对有关粮食政策进行必要的调整，因此，我们必须在改革的基础上，因势利导，进一步完善粮食流通政策，深化粮食流通体制改革。     

粮食流通机制急需完善

粮食收储企业实现顺价销售,是贯彻国务院深化粮食流通体制改革“三项政策、一项改革”的重要内容,也是保证粮食流通体制改革成功的关键环节。但是,在县级粮食流通体制改革中,却难以实现顺价销售,整个粮食流通体制改革也因此遇到了困难。有人说,造成这一问题的几个关键问题是:国家(收储企业)粮库库容过小,影响敞开收购;银行资金保障不了,缺乏收购资金;财政补贴不到位,收储企业难以为继;工商部门管理不够,粮食“非法”     

充分认识粮食清查审计的意义

近年来，我省作为粮食主产省，按照中央粮食流通体制改革的一系列政策措施，特别是前几年坚持深化以“三项     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。