基于博弈论的城市水源地水资源分配模式和相关政策分析

应用博弈论的方法,探讨水源地、城市及用水者等相关利益主体在不同决策模式下的行为方式,分析了“用水者各自决策”“城市政府主导分配”“市场交易”和“政府调控下的市场配置”4种水源地水资源分配模式,认为“政府调控下的市场配置”是相对最优模式。探讨了跨境水源地权利保护机制、用水总量控制政策背景下的水源地水资源分配、水源地水权交易和生态补偿等相关政策问题,并提出相关政策建议。     

Property rights and western United States water markets*

This paper addresses water scarcity issues in the American West and examines the allocation of water through the appropriative rights system and the extent markets are used to reallocate water from low‐ to high‐valued uses. The unique physical properties of water make it difficult to bound and measure, which makes defining property rights difficult. Markets are also impeded by disputes over third‐party effects due to the interdependencies of water users and complex institutional arrangements that dilute decision‐making authority. Analysis of water trading in the western United States indicates that the rate of permanent transfers is increasing over time and urban users are paying higher prices relative to agricultural users.     

中国水权交易的发展及其试点推广效应

水权交易是目前解决水资源稀缺的一项重要政策工具,亦是中国当前水资源管理改革的重要方向之一。基于中国水权交易所2016—2022年的交易数据对中国水权交易的总体概况、不同交易类型的水权交易特征进行统计描述性分析,并讨论其试点推广效应。研究表明:目前中国的水权交易以取水权交易为主,其次为区域水权交易,灌溉用水户水权交易渐趋活跃;区域水权交易主要表现为用水总量指标在区域间的重新配置,取水权交易主要表现为行业间的取水权交易,而灌溉用水户水权交易主要表现为行业内的水权交易;政府在水权交易中发挥了重要作用,随着水权交易的发展,参与主体开始出现多元化,更多的用水户开始进入水市场;中国的水权交易试点具有一定的推广效应,不仅仅表现为“量”的增多,还表现在交易方式上的创新。中国水权交易未来的发展空间在于不断创新水权交易方式并激励更多的用水户参与水权交易,需要因地制宜推进水权改革,加快推动初始水权的分配与确权工作;同时,还需要进一步完善水资源计量与监控体系,并积极推动水权交易法规制度建设,进一步推进水权交易市场的发展。     

地下水可交易水权制度框架及其作用研究

为解决地下水超采与浪费问题,研究在地下水管理中引入可交易水权制度,认为通过地下水水权交易,可以满足新进入者用水需求,有效地控制整个区域的地下水可开采总量。通过用水户之间的水权交易,可促进地下水资源在各用水主体间优化配置。为保障这一制度的运行,建议建立地下水可交易水权制度组织保障体系及法律保障体系。     

Do farmers benefit from participating in specialty markets and cooperatives? The case of coffee marketing in Costa Rica1

Historically low prices in the conventional coffee market have caused financial and social hardship among coffee farmers. In the face of this crisis, specialty markets have attracted the attention of the international donor community. These market segments have shown consistent growth over the last decade and exhibit price premiums in international markets. Therefore, if higher prices are passed on to farmers, access to specialty markets could help to alleviate the crisis brought on by low prices in the conventional sector. The present study attempts to identify the factors that determine farmers' participation in specialized markets and whether participation in these markets leads to higher prices for farmers. A two-stage model is used to analyze farmers' marketing decisions and their effect on the prices received. This procedure allows us to control for the endogeneity bias introduced by the marketing choice. Our results indicate that farmers participating in the specialty coffee segment do in fact receive higher prices than those participating in conventional channels. Additionally, we find that participation in cooperatives has a positive impact on the probability that a farmer chooses to grow specialty coffee and analogously on the prices that they receive. Based on these results, it seems that efforts to increase participation in the specialty coffee segment and in cooperatives would help to lessen some of the hardships brought on by low prices in the conventional coffee sector.     

Regional Planning of Wastewater Reuse for Irrigation and River Rehabilitation

Subject to a few agri‐environmental restrictions, municipal wastewater can be utilised for agricultural irrigation and river rehabilitation. This paper develops a single‐year Planning Model for a region in Israel which consists of a city and three potential wastewater consumers. The model incorporates, in one endogenous system, the economic, physical and biological relationships in the water–soil–plant–environment system and its objective is to maximise the regional social welfare. The model determines the optimal crop mix and the optimal allocation of the limited water and land resources among all potential users. Then, different allocation approaches from the concept of transferable utility games are applied to determine a reasonable and fair allocation of the additional net benefits which will be acceptable to all the players. The results support the collaboration among the economic entities and indicate economic and environmental advantages which can serve the decision‐makers.     

Price expectations of sheep and goats by producers and intermediaries in Quetta market,Pakistan

Analysis of producers' and intermediaries' livestock price expectations was used to describe the market in Quetta, the largest livestock market in the highlands of Balochistan Province, Pakistan, and to identify factors that determine price expectations of small ruminants. A total of 4800 expected prices for sheep and goats were collected from producers and market intermediaries at monthly intervals between January 1991 and December 1992. In addition to the expected price of the animal, liveweight, species, sex, breed, body condition (fatness), calendar day and month were recorded, and whether data were collected on a meat or meatless day. Monthly rainfall data were also collected. Models of goat and sheep price expectations were built to compare the similarity of the behaviour of producers and intermediaries. Results indicated that producers and intermediaries expected high prices from November to January and during religious holidays. They expected premiums and discounts related to animals' attributes. Liveweight and seasonality had the strongest effect on prices. Rainfall in the current and previous month was positively related to seller's expected prices suggesting that livestock are retained to take advantage of favourable grazing conditions. The models of price expectations showed that producers adjusted expected goat prices (P ≤ 0.10) for seasonality, liveweight, body condition, age, sex and breed, while they adjusted sheep prices for seasonality and liveweight only. High pay-offs could be expected if extension efforts focused on factors that determine sheep meat quality; however, the retail ceiling price of meat and the lack of grading are a disincentive to work in this direction. Seasonality of supply and demand is important in determining prices and this study provides baseline information for market scheduling; however, scheduling of sales of transhumant pastoralists may be difficult to achieve. Further investigation is justified to understand the gap in marketing knowledge between producers who sell in the villages and those who sell in Quetta.     

Variations in ecosystem services in response to paddy expansion in the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

The ecosystem of the Sanjiang Plain in China has dramatically changed in the past four decades. This study investigated the history of paddy field expansion in the Sanjiang Plain and discovered the ecosystem service variations in response to paddy expansion. Integrating a series of Landsat images, we obtained the paddy expansion history from 1976 to 2015. Then, we calculated ecosystem service values (ESVs) to estimate the ecosystem service variations caused by paddy expansion in the Sanjiang Plain. The results indicate that the paddy area increased from 404,789–2,598,449 ha during 1976–2015, leading to a decline in the total ecosystem service values by 11288.04 million dollars. The largest decline in ESVs in response to paddy expansion was caused by wetland reclamation (9998.54 million dollars). Apart from agricultural products and gas regulation functions, the ESVs provided by other functions all showed a declining trend. Paddy expansion in the Sanjiang Plain increased agricultural product function at the expense of the decline of other functions. In future management practices, the rational allocation of water resources and paddy distribution are necessary in order to achieve sustainable development of both water resources and agricultural production. Some suggestions including coculture systems, restoring habitats for aquatic species, farm management that fosters biodiversity in paddy fields are provided for future sustainability.     

Privatisation,empowerment and accountability: What are the policy implications for establishing effective farmer organisations?

Weak institutional development and information flows have constrained the extent to which the smallholder farming sector in developing countries can significantly drive growth and poverty reduction. This is despite widely implemented economic liberalisation policies focussing on market efficiency. Farmer organisations are viewed as a potential means of addressing public and private institutional failure but this has frequently been limited by inequalities in access to power and information. This article investigates two issues that have received little research attention to date: what role downward accountability plays in enabling farmer organisations to improve services and markets, and what influences the extent to which downward accountability is achieved. Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA), one of the largest farmer organisations in the world (>400,000 farmers) is examined alongside wider literature. Mixed methods were used including key informant interviews, and eight months of participant observation followed by a questionnaire survey. The article concludes that without effective downward accountability farmer organisations can become characterised by institutions and mechanisms that favour elites, restricted weak coordination and regulation, and manipulated information flows. This in turn reduces individuals’ incentives to invest. If farmer organisations are to realise their potential as a means of enabling the smallholder sector to significantly contribute to economic growth and poverty reduction, policy and research needs to address key factors which influence accountability including: how to ensure initial processes in formation of farmer organisations establish appropriate structures and rules; strong state regulation to enhance corporate accountability; transparent information provision regarding actions of farmer organisation leaders; and the role independent non-government organisations can play. Consequently attention needs to focus on developing means of legitimising rights, building poor people's capacity to challenge exclusion, and moving from rights to obligations regarding information provision.     

我国水资源的分配体系及其有效性分析

地表水的有效配置要求水资源的用水权是可转让的，地下水的有效配置则要求考虑使用者成本。而我国现行的水资源由行政分配，用水权无法转让，而且实行国家养水，福利供水政策，导致水过低，造成目前用水浪费，污染严重的局面，从水资源有效配置的角度出发，分析了我国水资源分配体系中存在的问题及影响因素，并就如何提高水资源的配置效率提供了一些建议。     

The Amenity Value of Agricultural Landscape and Rural–Urban Land Allocation

We analyse rural–urban land allocation in the light of the increasing environmental role of agricultural landscapes. The landscape amenity value of farmland varies across crops and as a result affects the optimal crop mix in addition to its effect on rural–urban land allocation. Investigating the effects of population and income growth processes, we find that, contrary to market outcomes, the socially optimal allocation may call for more farmland preservation under both processes. In an empirical application to a region in Israel, we find that the extent of market under‐supply of farmland is substantial and that population growth calls for more farmland preservation at the expense of urban land.     

农地流转对农业资本深化的实证研究

[目的]现阶段我国农业生产要素配置不合理、资源浪费现象严重、农业部门的整体效益较低。农地流转的过程既是农地资源重新配置与再利用,又是促进农业资本深化的重要方式。通过制定合理有效地农地流转制度来高效配置资本要素,从而实现农业的可持续发展。[方法]基于农地流转的规模效应和配置效应两个维度来分析农地流转对农业资本深化的影响,利用固定效应模型进行多元回归,分别求农地流转对两个核心指标的影响大小。[结果]农地流转对农业资本增密和滞后一期的农业资本配置效率具有正向促进关系。农地流转促进了农业现代化技术的推广与运用,加速了农业生产资料在单位面积土地上的运作效率,农地流转促进了农业资本的持续深化。[结论]加快农地合理规范流转是提高农业资本深化的重要途径。     

HERD INVENTORY AND SLAUGHTER SUPPLY RESPONSE OF BOTSWANA BEEF CATTLE PRODUCERS

A statistical model composed of rational distributed lags was used to estimate cattle inventory and cattle slaughter in the livestock sector of the Republic of Botswana. The impact of range and biological conditions, government infrastructure, technology, and cattle prices were tested in the initial maintained hypotheses. Results revealed that a polynomial rational lag structure, or cyclical effect, characterised the behaviour of herd inventories specific to changes in cattle prices. Contemporaneous decisions to market slaughter cattle were affected by the long-term cycle as well as the more direct influence of slaughter prices and range conditions within a one to two year period. The responsiveness of these sectors to changes in cattle prices is qualified within the biological and climatic constraints, and customs of the tribal and commercial cattle producing economies. It appears that the significance of the price-elasticities stands in contrast to the findings of other studies.     

Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin

Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policy makers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic‐hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, non‐agricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo river basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban‐industrial sectors.     

The economic and financial gains from water markets in Chile

Chile is one of the few countries that has encouraged the use of markets in water resource management. In order to assess the impact of water markets and transactions costs in Chile, four river valleys, the Maipo, Elqui, Limarí, and the Azapa were selected as case studies. Transactions from the Elqui and Limarí valleys, during the years 1986 to 1993, were analyzed to determine the gains-from-trade from market transfers. In the economic and financial analysis of water markets, crop budgets were used to estimate the value of water in agricultural production. The value of water-use rights to urban water-supply companies was estimated using the avoided cost of an alternative investment in a water-storage reservoir. The analysis demonstrated that the market transfer of water-use rights does produce substantial economic gains-from-trade in both the Elqui and Limarí Valleys. These economic gains produce rents for both buyers and sellers. But buyers, especially farmers growing profitable crops who buy water-use rights and individuals buying water-use rights for potable water supply, receive higher rents then sellers. Large table-grape producers in the Limarí Valley and individuals buying water for human consumption in the Elqui Valley received the highest rents. In the Elqui Valley net gains-from-trade per share were within the range of recent transfer prices of US$1000. In the Limarí Valley, gains-from-trade per share are 3.4 times the recent prices of US$3000 for a share of water from the Cogotí Reservoir. Where trading was active, especially in the Limarí Valley, transactions costs have not presented an appreciable barrier to trading. Nonetheless, in the large canal systems with fixed flow dividers in the Elqui and Maipo Valley there have been very few transactions. Various factors contribute to the lack of trading, but the absence of trading in these large canal systems highlights the costs of modifying fixed infrastructure, especially for trades between farmers.     

水量调配博弈分析及应用研究

提出水量调配博弈模型假设,建立完全竞争水量调配博弈模型,对水量调配博弈模型进行分析,得出结论:完全竞争市场的水量调配模式未必是有效率的,政府的作用至关重要。对水量调配博弈模型应用提出建议:建立一套符合中国国情的水权体系,完善水资源分配制度,建立合理的水价形成机制,健全水权交易市场。     

新形势下中国特色水权交易实践总结与发展对策

水权交易是发挥市场机制作用、优化配置水资源的重要手段,是落实水资源刚性约束要求、促进水资源节约和集约利用的关键举措。在总结现阶段水权交易进展及成效的基础上,分析了推进水权交易面临的主要问题及原因,结合用水权市场化交易工作部署,从顶层设计、平台建设、试点示范、交易监管等方面提出了推进水权交易的对策及措施,为完善水权交易制度体系,培育和发展水权交易市场,促进水资源节约和集约利用提供支撑。     

我国碳排放权市场影响因素分析——以广州碳排放权交易所为例

立足我国当前碳排放权市场的发展状况,从碳排放权市场的规模与价格角度,分析我国碳排放权市场的影响因素。以广州市为样本,基于广州碳排放权交易所的相关数据,结合广州当地经济发展状况,研究发现能源价格、不同产业的GDP增长率与当年碳排放权分配制度是影响碳排放权市场的主要因素,并根据实证分析结果提出了尽快建立统一的碳交易市场、完善碳排放权分配方案与将区块链技术应用于碳交易市场的政策建议。     

水权质量视阈下小流域水权冲突与协调措施

从水权质量的角度出发,对小流域水权冲突诱因及其协调措施进行研究,阐述了小流域水权冲突的相关概念,归纳总结出小流域水权冲突具有主体多元化、外溢效用严重、对抗激化引致暴力冲突的特征,并对小流域水权冲突经典表现进行介绍,然后对小流域水权冲突的诱因进行了分析。结果表明:当水权以低质量的形式表现出来时,引起其他用水户交易水资源时交易成本降低,机会主义行为发生概率上升,并且水权转让水平低,新的水权冲突不断发生。另外,水权质量低也造成水权凝滞现象发生,以及水权异动频发和水权约束力下降等一系列影响,进而加剧水权冲突事件发生的频率。因此,政府应创新小流域内水利基础设施投融资机制,建立小流域水权分配机制,推进小流域水权市场建设,引入生态补偿机制,以协调由低质量的水权引起的水权冲突。     

国际河流水权分配方法与适用——以中东两河为例

国际河流的水权分配问题已成为影响各流域国关系的重要因素之一。基于国际水法的基本原则,根据不同分配标准拟定不同国际河流水权分配方法,并应用于底格里斯幼发拉底河实例中,分析河流的具体各项数据,计算出各自的分配效果。结果显示,兼顾生态需水、人口水量及产水贡献三方面的流域国贡献比例分配法更加合理,更具有可操作性,更易被各流域国接受,能够减少和避免流域国之间的水冲突,稳定地区安全。