What does futures market interest tell us about the macroeconomy and asset prices?

Economists have traditionally viewed futures prices as fully informative about future economic activity and asset prices. We argue that open interest could be more informative than futures prices in the presence of hedging demand and limited risk absorption capacity in futures markets. We find that movements in open interest are highly pro-cyclical, correlated with both macroeconomic activity and movements in asset prices. Movements in commodity market interest predict commodity returns, bond returns, and movements in the short rate even after controlling for other known predictors. To a lesser degree, movements in open interest predict returns in currency, bond, and stock markets.     

Volatility spillover and investment strategies among sustainability-related financial indexes: Evidence from the DCC-GARCH-based dynamic connectedness and DCC-GARCH t-copula approach

This study analyzes the dynamic connectedness between the ESG stock index, the renewable energy stock index, the green bond stock index, the sustainability stock index, and the carbon emission futures by employing a novel method: the DCC-GARCH-based dynamic connectedness approach. Given the strong volatility spillover among these indexes, we adopt the DCC-GARCH t-copula model to calculate these indexes' hedging ratios and portfolio weights. Our findings show that the carbon emission futures are the volatility transmitter, and the green bond is the volatility receiver. The total dynamic connectedness is affected by international political, economic, and other events. Furthermore, for stock market volatility investors, taking the long position in carbon emission futures and the short position in renewable energy stock can achieve the highest hedging effect.     

PRICING CURRENCY OPTIONS UNDER STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES AND JUMP‐DIFFUSION PROCESSES

We investigate the effects of stochastic interest rates and jumps in the spot exchange rate on the pricing of currency futures, forwards, and futures options. The proposed model extends Bates's model by allowing both the domestic and foreign interest rates to move around randomly, in a generalized Vasicek term‐structure framework. Numerical examples show that the model prices of European currency futures options are similar to those given by Bates's and Black's models in the absence of jumps and when the volatilities of the domestic and foreign interest rates and futures price are negligible. Changes in these volatilities affect the futures options prices. Bates's and Black's models underprice the European currency futures options in both the presence and the absence of jumps. The mispricing increases with the volatilities of interest rates and futures prices. JEL classification: G13     

Futures and futures options with basis risk: theoretical and empirical perspectives

Under a no-arbitrage assumption, the futures price converges to the spot price at the maturity of the futures contract, where the basis equals zero. Assuming that the basis process follows a modified Brownian bridge process with a zero basis at maturity, we derive the closed-form solutions of futures and futures options with the basis risk under the stochastic interest rate. We make a comparison of the Black model under a stochastic interest rate and our model in an empirical test using the daily data of S&P 500 futures call options. The overall mean errors in terms of index points and percentage are ?4.771 and ?27.83%, respectively, for the Black model and 0.757 and 1.30%, respectively, for our model. This evidence supports the occurrence of basis risk in S&P 500 futures call options.     

沪深300指数期货价格随机利率效应研究

经典持有成本模型在非随机利率假设无法满足的条件下仅仅是远期合约而非期货的定价模型。本文采用拟合SHIBOR曲线的方法生成无风险纯折现债券模拟价格序列,对沪深300指数期货价格的随机利率效应进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,由于利率管制、股指期货市场和货币市场发展不成熟等因素的共同作用,沪深300指数期货价格中不含随机利率效应,指数远期和期货理论价格相等;如果持有成本模型其他假设条件也得到满足,则该模型可以用于沪深300指数期货定价。     

An Empirical Investigation of the Market for Comex Gold Futures Options

Option-pricing models that assume a constant interest rate may misprice futures options if the interest rate fluctuates significantly or if the price of the underlying asset is correlated with the interest rate. The futures option-pricing model of Ramaswamy and Sundaresan allows for a stochastic interest rate and correlation of the underlying asset's price with the interest rate. Using a data set of daily closing prices for Comex gold futures options, this paper tests the Ramaswamy and Sundaresan model against a constant interest rate model. Results indicate that the stochastic interest rate model is a superior predictor of market prices.     

Futures Options and the Volatility of Futures Prices

Assuming nonstochastic interest rates, European futures options are shown to be European options written on a particular asset referred to as a futures bond. Consequently, standard option pricing results may be invoked and standard option pricing techniques may be employed in the case of European futures options. Additional arbitrage restrictions on American futures options are derived. The efficiency of a number of futures option markets is examined. Assuming that at-the-money American futures options are priced accurately by Black's European futures option pricing model, the relationship between market participants' ex ante assessment of futures price volatility and the term to maturity of the underlying futures contract is also investigated empirically.     

存在市场摩擦条件下股指期货定价模型及其应用——以沪深300股指期货为例

依据无套利原理,考察存在市场摩擦条件下股指期货定价模型,并将其应用于我国股指期货市场,构建沪深300股指期货套利模型。该套利模型考虑了现实中存在的交易成本、借贷利差等市场摩擦因素对套利机会的影响,从而在实务中具有一定的参考价值。     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

股指期货是股灾的“幕后推手”吗——基于2015年股灾期间沪深300股指期货高频数据实证分析

选取2015年6月15日至8月26日股灾期间沪深300股指期货与沪深300指数5分钟高频数据,通过E-G两步协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应模型等,对股灾期间股指期货市场价格发现功能及波动溢出效应进行实证研究.结果表明:股灾期间沪深300股指期货仍具备价格发现功能,但存在对现货市场的单向波动溢出,具有一定的"助跌"效应.     

恒生指数和沪深300股指期货套期保值效果对比研究

本文利用OLS、ECM、ECM-GARCH模型对沪深300股指期货和恒生指数期货的最优套期保值率进行了估算,并在风险最小化框架下对它们的套期保值效果进行了对比研究。结果发现:无论是哪种股指期货,不考虑期现货间存在的协整关系会使估算的最优套期保值率偏高,影响套期保值效果;其次是虽然在样本内外,沪深300股指期货的套期保值效果比恒生指数期货的好,但是沪深300股指期货套期保值效果的稳定性比恒生指数差。此时,ECM-GARCH和OLS模型分别为样本内外投资者利用沪深300指数期货进行套期保值时的最佳选择;对于恒生指数股指期货,最优模型是ECM。     

Stock index dynamics and derivatives pricing with stochastic interest rates

The paper analyzes the equilibrium valuation of stock index derivatives in an economy with stochastic interest rates and with a representative agent having time-additive power utility. The equilibrium short interest rate dynamics and the equilibrium term structure of interest rates are described by an affine one-factor term structure model. In equilibrium the value of the stock index is a non-trivial function of the short interest rate. The paper investigates the consequences of the induced stock index dynamics for the theoretical spreads between index forward prices and index futures prices and the consequences for the valuation of options on stock index futures.The paper was written while the author was a visiting scholar at Department of Finance, Kellogg Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University. I thank for helpful comments and suggestions from Gurdip Bakshi, Avi Bick, Menachem Brenner (the editor), Zhiwu Chen, San-Lin Chung, Mark Fisher, Andreas Höger, Marti Subrahmanyam, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Western Finance Association meeting in San Diego, the European Financial Management Association meeting in Istanbul, the European Finance Association meeting in Vienna, and the Center of Analytical Finance workshop at University of Aarhus. Financial support from the Danish Natural Science and Social Science Reasearch Councils is gratefully acknowledged.     

International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets

This paper examines the information transmission between Japan and the US by using the Tokyo Euroyen and Chicago Eurodollar futures. These two interest rate futures markets provide a better understanding of international information transmission than stock markets, which have been shown to exhibit nonsynchronous trading and market segmentation. The results show that traders in Tokyo (Chicago) use information that is revealed overnight in Chicago (Tokyo). The bivariate EGARCH-t model provides no evidence of volatility spillovers in either direction, suggesting that the opening price rapidly reflects foreign information. The overall results support the hypothesis that the domestic market efficiently adjusts to foreign news. The results are also broadly consistent with the covered interest arbitrage effects.     

A Likelihood Ratio Test of Price Volatilities: Comparing Stock Index Spot and Futures

This paper uses three methods to estimate the price volatility of two stock market indexes and their corresponding futures contracts. The classic variance measure of volatility is supplemented with two newer measures, derived from the Garman-Klass and Ball-Torous estimators. A likelihood ratio test is used to compare the classic variance measure of price volatilities of two stock market indexes and their corresponding futures contracts during the bull market of the 1980s. The stock market volatilities of the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) indexes were found to be significantly lower than their respective futures price volatilities. Since information may flow faster in the futures markets than in the corresponding stock market, our results support Ross's information-volatility hypothesis. It was also noted that the NYSE spot volatility was lower than the S&P 500 spot volatility. If the rate of information flow and firm size are positively related, then the lower NYSE spot volatility is explained by the size effect. The futures price volatilities for the two indexes were insignificantly different from each other. With stock index spot-futures price correlations approaching unity, one implication of our results for index futures activity is that smaller positions in futures contracts may suffice to achieve hedging or arbitrage goals.     

Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures-Cash Basis

Deviations from no‐arbitrage relations should be related to market liquidity, because liquidity facilitates arbitrage. At the same time, a wide futures‐cash basis may trigger arbitrage trades and, in turn, affect liquidity. We test these ideas by studying the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the index futures basis. There is evidence of two‐way Granger causality between the short‐term absolute basis and liquidity, and liquidity Granger‐causes longer‐term absolute bases. Shocks to the absolute basis predict future stock market liquidity. The evidence suggests that liquidity enhances the efficiency of the futures‐cash pricing system.     

Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute

This study examines the effects of the US–China trade dispute on the informational linkages and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets. Using the daily price data of four assets representing the real and financial sectors in China during 2016–2019, empirical findings suggest that the futures–spot correlations for the stock index, copper, and corn markets have increased significantly during the trade dispute. In contrast, sharp declines in the dynamic correlations between gold futures and spot markets, as gold is a safe haven asset, are observed during the event window. During uncertainty disturbance (i.e., the trade dispute), the futures–spot cointegrated relationships in the gold and corn markets are found to adjust more quickly and efficiently, whereas the correction speeds of the market deviations for the stock index and copper market are moderately slower. With the intensive integration of market expectations with uncertainty shocks, the economic shocks of trade disputes tend to remarkably improve the pricing efficiency of China's futures markets, except for the gold futures market. China's spot markets, however, seem to be more sensitive to the noise trades and information disturbances arising from the trade dispute.     

基于波动效应与价格发现的期指仿真交易研究

沪深300股指期货仿真交易的推出,对我国现货市场的影响如何以及这种影响是否有利于现货效率的改进。首次采用修正的GARCH模型和向量误差修正模型（VEC）将股指期货推出后现货市场波动性的变化和股指期货与现货市场的价格发现功能结合起来进行对比研究。结果表明,期指仿真交易的推出对于现货市场效率的改进确实存在正面的影响。其引入在短期内加大了现货市场的波动,但这一波动正是市场信息流动加速的反映,因而提高了市场信息的传递效率。同时期货价格领先于现货价格,存在由期货市场到现货市场长期的单向因果关系,说明期货价格具有引导现货价格向均衡方向调整的功能,从而在经验上支持了股指期货市场的开放政策。     

股指期货与股票现货市场竞争关系研究——来自中国的经验证据

本文利用模拟生态学中种群间动态关系的Lotka-Volterra模型,对沪深300股指期货同股票现货市场在交易规模方面的竞争关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,沪深300股指期货推出初期,股指期货市场与股票现货市场在交易规模方面存在竞争性的交易转移效应;随着股指期货市场相关规则的不断健全和完善,股指期货市场与股票现货市场在交易规模方面由竞争关系转变为共存关系,出现交易引资效应。同时,研究还发现,股指期货市场与股票现货市场之间关系由竞争性转变为共存性的重要原因是股指期货市场监管力度的加大,股指期货市场投资者结构的优化,以及股指期货市场期现套利交易的盛行。     

Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility

Abstract:   This paper examines the lead‐lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.     

Monetary policy shocks and stock returns: evidence from the British market

This paper examines the impact of anticipated and unanticipated interest rate changes on aggregate and sectoral stock returns in the United Kingdom. The monetary policy shock is generated from the change in the 3-month sterling LIBOR futures contract. Results from time-series and panel analysis indicate an important structural break in the relationship between stock returns and monetary policy shifts. Specifically, whereas before the credit crunch, the stock market response to both expected and unexpected interest rate changes is negative and significant; the relationship becomes positive during the credit crisis. The latter finding highlights the inability, so far, of monetary policymakers to reverse, via interest rate cuts, the negative trend observed in stock prices since the onset of the credit crisis.