Valuation of American Futures Options: Theory and Empirical Tests

This paper reviews the theory of futures option pricing and tests the valuation principles on transaction prices from the S&P 500 equity futures option market. The American futures option valuation equations are shown to generate mispricing errors which are systematically related to the degree the option is in-the-money and to the option's time to expiration. The models are also shown to generate abnormal risk-adjusted rates of return after transaction costs. The joint hypothesis that the American futures option pricing models are correctly specified and that the S&P 500 futures option market is efficient is refuted, at least for the sample period January 28, 1983 through December 30, 1983.     

期权定价理论及在我国资产评估领域应用的分析

本文首先介绍了布莱克--斯科尔斯期权定价模型(B-S模型)的产生背景、前提假设与期权定价理论的发展简史;然后介绍了B-S模型的一些变型,接着又介绍了二叉树期权定价模型及其假设,以及B-S模型在股指期权、货币期权、期货期权及实物期权等领域中的应用;最后,作者结合会计准则与评估准则,强调了继续研究期权定价理论的必要性和迫切性.     

Option Valuation with Systematic Stochastic Volatility

We use an extension of the equilibrium framework of Rubinstein ( 1976 ) and Brennan ( 1979 ) to derive an option valuation formula when the stock return volatility is both stochastic and systematic. Our formula incorporates a stochastic volatility process as well as a stochastic interest rate process in the valuation of options. If the “mean,” volatility, and “covariance” processes for the stock return and the consumption growth are predictable, our option valuation formula can be written in “preference-free” form. Further, many popular option valuation formulae in the literature can be written as special cases of our general formula.     

Option Pricing and Replication with Transactions Costs

Transactions costs invalidate the Black-Scholes arbitrage argument for option pricing, since continuous revision implies infinite trading. Discrete revision using Black-Scholes deltas generates errors which are correlated with the market, and do not approach zero with more frequent revision when transactions costs are included. This paper develops a modified option replicating strategy which depends on the size of transactions costs and the frequency of revision. Hedging errors are uncorrelated with the market and approach zero with more frequent revision. The technique permits calculation of the transactions costs of option replication and provides bounds on option prices.     

Electric Utility Stranded Costs: Valuation and Disclosure Issues

We analyze the stock market's valuation of electric utility "stranded costs" (i.e., costs that might become unrecoverable under deregulation), and investigate whether stranded costs that have arisen as a result of voluntary firm business decisions are valued differently from those that are more directly linked to regulatory mandates. Further, we study whether investor valuations differ across jurisdictions. Finally, we examine the relation between investor valuation of stranded costs and the decision by utilities to make stranded cost-related disclosures in their financial statements voluntarily.
We find that investors anticipate that, on average, approximately 10% of total stranded costs will be borne by utility shareholders. Stranded costs arising from voluntary operating or investing decisions made by utilities are valued more negatively than those associated with mandatory power purchase contracts, consistent with investors assigning a higher recovery probability to the latter. Investor valuations of stranded costs associated with utility generating investments do not differ systematically across jurisdictions. We find that stranded costs are valued less negatively for voluntary disclosers not just in the year of disclosure but also in the preceding two years, implying that it is not disclosure per se that favorably influences valuation. Voluntary disclosers operate in jurisdictions that have more clearly established stranded cost recovery mechanisms, suggesting that both stranded cost disclosure and valuation are prompted by reduction in uncertainty about recoverability.     

Option Replication in Discrete Time with Transaction Costs

Option replication is discussed in a discrete-time framework with transaction costs. The model represents an extension of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial option pricing model to cover the case of proportional transaction costs. The method proceeds by constructing the appropriate replicating portfolio at each trading interval. Numerical values of these prices are presented for a range of parameter values. The paper derives a simple Black-Scholes type approximation for the option prices with transaction costs and demonstrates numerically that it is quite accurate for plausible parameter values.     

实物期权理论在房地产价值评估中的应用

房地产开发时间长,价格变化快,传统的净现值法易低估房地产开发项目的价值,往往导致对项目的低评。本文通过引入实物期权理论,在论述其在房地产开发价值评估中应用的合理性基础上,结合房地产开发的实例讨论在不确定性条件下房地产推迟开发带来的投资机会价值,为房地产价值评估提供一种更贴近实际情况的方法。     

证券流动性折价的期权理论在限售股评估中的应用

一、引言从2005年4月中国证监会发布《关于上市公司股权分置改革试点有关问题的通知》启动股权分置改革起．至2007年底．沪、深两市共1298家上市公司完成了股权分置改革,占应股改公司的98％,未完成股改的上市公司仅剩33家。     

并购中企业实物期权价值评估的研究

本文采用实物期权法,建立了企业并购中目标企业的价值评估模型,认为并购中目标企业的价值不仅包括企业自身的价值,还应包括由于并购的实物期权特征和协同效应产生的目标企业的附加价值。目标企业自身的价值由传统的折现现金流法计算并通过实物期权理论调整;并购附加价值由实物期权法,改进的折现现金流法和专家评分法进行计算和分配。     

Jump Diffusion Option Valuation in Discrete Time

We develop a simple, discrete time model to value options when the underlying process follows a jump diffusion process. Multivariate jumps are superimposed on the binomial model of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979) to obtain a model with a limiting jump diffusion process. This model incorporates the early exercise feature of American options as well as arbitrary jump distributions. It yields an efficient computational procedure that can be implemented in practice. As an application of the model, we illustrate some characteristics of the early exercise boundary of American options with certain types of jump distributions.     

Valuation of a Repriceable Executive Stock Option

We introduce a path-dependent executive stock option. The exercise price might be reduced when both the firm’s stock price and a stock market index fall greatly. The repriceable executive stock option has a simple payoff that may be used for realistic executive rewards. We show the valuation formula, and compute the probability of the repriceable executive stock option expiring in-the-money. Both price and probability are important pieces of quantitative information when choosing an executive compensation package.     

Dividend Forecast Biases in Index Option Valuation

Since the early days of option pricing theory,the assumption that the dividends on the underlying stock or index over the life of the contract are known has not been challenged. We examine the sensitivity of index option prices to the assumption of dividend uncertainty. We consider a number of issues related to the forecasting of dividends and build a dividend forecasting model that passes several rigorous tests for unbiasedness. We then generate option prices using contemporary market levels and interest rates. We find that prices generated with the actual dividends are unbiased with respect to those generated using the forecasted dividends. The magnitudes of the forecast errors, however, are sufficiently large to suggest a concern, but the percentage errors are consistently small, typically amounting to less than two percent of the option price. We conclude that the convenient assumption that the stream of future dividendsis known is probably innocuous. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Convertible Preferred Stock Valuation: Tests of Alternative Models

We undertake a comprehensive test of several contingent claim valuation models adapted to callable, convertible preferred stocks employing a sample of 24 issues and over 27,000 daily price observations. To our knowledge, no large-scale tests of these models have been published. The most complete model tested is an extension of the 1970s developments of Ingersoll and of Brennan and Schwartz, allowing for realistic contract features including delayed callability and nonconstant call prices. The mean and the mean absolute pricing errors are approximately –0.18 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, and this model fits the data substantially better than the simpler alternatives that ignore such features. Thus, the added computational complexity required for the most complete model examined is evidently merited. Moreover, to the extent that the most complete model accurately mirrors reality, the evidence suggests that investors rationally account for many of the complex features imbedded in typical contracts.     

Investment Dynamics with Information Costs

Investment in physical capital at the microlevel is infrequent and large, or lumpy. The most common explanation for this is that firms face nonconvex physical adjustment costs. The model developed in this paper shows that information costs make investment lumpy at the microlevel, even in the absence of nonconvex adjustment costs. When collecting and processing information are costly, the firm optimally chooses to do it sporadically and to be inactive most of the time. This behavior results in infrequent and possibly large capital adjustments. The model fits plant‐level investment rate moments well, and it also matches some higher order moments of aggregate investment rates.     

Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns

We develop a model in which the volatility of risky assets is subject to random and discontinuous shifts over time. We derive prices of claims contingent on such assets and analyze options-based trading strategies to hedge against the risk of jumps in the return volatility. Unsystematic and systematic events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans, or shifts in economic policy regimes may drastically alter firms' risk profiles. Our model captures the effect of such events on options markets.     

股权质押与公司估值:理论与实证

本文基于2000—2020年我国A股上市公司数据,探讨了控股股东股权质押对上市公司代理问题及其估值的非线性影响。研究发现,控股股东股权质押比例较低(高)时将会缓解(加剧)上市公司的代理问题,从而使其估值上升(下降)。进一步分析显示,随着控股股东股权质押比例的提高,上市公司的财务约束和财务困境水平先降后升,呈U形变化;与此同时,控股股东高股权质押比例降低了上市公司增量现金的边际价值,增加了其审计费用和违规频次。从企业异质性来看,国企子样本中上述关系大多不显著。本文研究对进一步理解股权质押的内在运行机制和经济后果有一定参考意义。     

Valuation of a Developmental Drug as a Real Option

Valuing a capital investment as a real option (or series of options) has advantages over standard DCF valuation when the investment creates the future flexibility to delay, abandon, or expand an element of the project based on the resolution of a major source of uncertainty. The uncertainty is generally dealt with using a “volatility” term that aims to reflect the variability in the future value of the underlying asset. But there are certain situations in which the uncertainty has a second dimension. For example, drugs in development can be abandoned either because of bad technical outcomes (the drug doesn't work) or unfavorable resolutions of market risk (though the drug works, its market potential turns out to be too limited). In an article published earlier in this journal, the authors illustrated the valuation of an early‐stage pharma R&D investment using a real options approach in which the market and technical risks were folded together into the volatility parameter. In this article, the authors explain why they have concluded that this is an incorrect approach and then show how to handle market and technical risk as two separate dimensions of risk in valuing an R&D program. The potential use of this technique extends beyond pharma and biotech R&D to any situation in which the outcome of an important uncertainty is independent of the resolution of market risk associated with the underlying asset.