Evaluating environmental policies under uncertainty through application of robust nonlinear programming

Environmental policy evaluation is characterised by a paucity of information. The novel technique of robust mathematical programming is introduced as a means to proactively account for this uncertainty in policy analysis. The procedure allows identification of expected bounds on the range of abatement costs associated with environmental policy. It also has the advantage of not limiting conclusions to realisations of specific point estimates or probability distributions. Empirical insights are provided in an application to a New Zealand inland lake threatened by nitrate pollution from dairy farming. Overall, this novel framework is demonstrated to have several key advantages, including explicit treatment of severe uncertainty, capacity to bound the range of expected abatement costs accruing to a given policy instrument, and the opportunity to identify robust plans that are immune to parametric variation.     

Agri‐environmental auctions for phosphorus load reduction: experiences from a Finnish pilot

We examine environmental auctions on working agricultural lands. We organized a discriminatory auction where farmers were asked to make bids on spreading gypsum on their fields to reduce phosphorus loads to surface waters. The parcel‐specific bids were ranked based on their load reduction–compensation ratios. To assess load reductions, we built an environmental benefit index (EBI) based on three factors: P‐status of the soil (phosphorus available for crops), field slope and location with respect to waterways. As the per tonne price of gypsum delivery from the factory was higher for small quantities, the auction format allowed bundling of field parcels to reduce transportation costs. We evaluate auction's ability to target the environmental (or abatement) measures to field parcels with the highest load reduction potential and analyse the economic efficiency of the auction by comparing the pilot auction with simulated bidding behaviour and with hypothetical flat rate payment schemes. The pilot auction targeted the environmental measures effectively. It was also more efficient than a flat rate payment, even when the flat rate scheme was combined with an EBI eligibility criterion.     

Integrated regional impact assessment of agricultural trade and domestic environmental policies

It remains challenging to derive general findings and conclusions from either economic theory or empirical studies on the relationship between international trade and the regional environment. Consequently, we aim to analyse environmental effects of agricultural trade policies in the Austrian Marchfeld region. We apply an integrated modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneity in agricultural production and environmental outcomes. Scenario analysis is applied to assess regional impacts of different trade policy scenarios. Sensitivity analyses reveal the relative influence of model parameters on outputs. The results indicate that lower domestic tariffs have small beneficial effects on the regional environment. The regional environmental impacts highly depend on the changes in world crop prices through global trade agreements. A laissez-faire market scenario that includes the elimination of trade barriers and agri-environmental payments (AEPs) leads to substantial environmental deterioration. Hence, the alignment of AEPs with WTO trading rules remains an important issue in the trade and environment debate.     

Extra-legal land market dynamics on a Guatemalan agricultural frontier: Implications for neoliberal land policies

Neoliberal land policies such as land administration seek to improve property rights and the efficiency of land markets to boost rural economic production. Quantitative studies of pre-existing land markets can help planners to tailor these policies to local conditions. In this article we examine an extra-legal land market currently being modernized by a World Bank-sponsored land administration effort. Specifically, we use a hedonic-type revealed preference model and household survey data to estimate the factors affecting extra-legal land prices along an agricultural frontier in Petén, Guatemala. Our model indicates that land value is significantly affected by land attributes including location, tenure status, presence of water, distance to roads, and distance to landowners’ homes, and that land prices in the northwestern Petén are estimated to have risen on average 26.5% per year between 1977 and 2000. We contend that this rate of increase provides a strong incentive for colonists to speculate in land rather than invest in state sanctioned property rights. We conclude that if frontier development programs, such as land administration, are to become attractive to settlers in Petén and elsewhere, they must compete favorably with economic incentives associated with land speculation, or alternatively, target landowners who are not interested in playing the land market.     

Cost-effectiveness of alternative green payment policies for conservation technology adoption with heterogeneous land quality

This paper quantitatively analyses the cost‐effectiveness of alternative green payment policies designed to achieve a targeted level of pollution control by heterogeneous microunits. These green payment policies include cost‐share subsidies that share the fixed costs of adoption of a conservation technology and/or input reduction subsidies to reduce the use of a polluting input. The paper shows that unlike a pollution tax that achieves abatement through three mechanisms, a negative extensive margin effect, a negative intensive margin effect and a technology switching effect, a cost‐share subsidy and an input reduction subsidy are much more restricted in the types of incentives they provide for conservation of polluting inputs and adoption of a conservation technology to control pollution. Moreover, they may lead to varying levels of expansion of land under production. Costs of abatement with alternative policies and implications for production and government payments are compared using a simulation model for controlling drainage from irrigated cotton production in California, with drip irrigation as a conservation technology.     

Landscape patterns of development under two alternative scenarios: Implications for conservation

The spatial pattern of urban development has important ecological and conservation implications. Urban sprawl, characterized by scattered and low-density urban development, is commonly criticized for its negative ecological impact. In response, growth management policies have been proposed in order to promote compact development, which is generally considered more favorable from an ecological perspective. Spatial simulations of land cover change are useful for comparing urban development scenarios and their potential effects. One aspect that has not received much attention is how the rate of development may affect differences between compact development and urban sprawl in terms of their potential impact to biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale. Our goal in this study was to compare the spatial pattern and landscape-scale conservation and ecological implications of sprawling development (expected under unregulated development) versus compact development (promoted by growth management policies) at different development rates. We focused on Israel's Mediterranean region—a region characterized by high human population density and heterogeneous land cover. Using a cellular automata model, DINAMICA-EGO, we calibrated and validated an urban development model for the period between 1998 and 2007. Using this period as a reference, we simulated two scenarios 20 years into the future: unregulated (resulting in a more sprawling development pattern) versus regulated development (resulting in a more compact development pattern). For each scenario we analyzed a range of development rates, and compared built-up area patterns, and several landscape-level attributes of natural habitats, conservation priority areas, and protected areas. We found that at development rates comparable to those observed during 1998–2007, there was no major difference between the two scenarios. At higher development rates, some differences between the scenarios emerged: natural core areas were more fragmented and smaller in their extent, and a higher proportion of conservation priority areas were expected to undergo development in the unregulated scenario. Overall, the regulated scenario was more favorable for conservation. Since the regulated and unregulated scenarios exhibited only minor differences in lower development rates, modifications to policy measures included in the regulated scenario should be considered in order improve its effectiveness.     

Land use and economic effects of alternative biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States

Being the two largest ethanol producers in the world, biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States affect both their domestic markets and the global food and biofuel economy. In this article we develop a price endogenous mathematical programming model to simulate and analyze the impacts of biofuel mandates and trade distortions on land use, agricultural commodity and transportation fuel markets, and global environment. We find that an 80% increase in total biofuel production from its 103 billion liter baseline level to the mandated 183 billion liter level in 2022 can be achieved with less than 2% increase in total cropland use in both countries. In the United States, this would occur with cellulosic biofuels meeting nearly half of the biofuels consumed and produced largely on cropland pasture and corn ethanol meeting the rest of the mandate and resulting in a 2% increase in corn price. In Brazil, the expansion in sugarcane production would be achieved by reducing land under pasture and a marginal increase in intensification of livestock production. In the aggregate, biofuel policies increase economic surplus in both countries by 1% and redistribute the benefits from agricultural consumers to agricultural producers and the fuel sector. Finally, we also find that full implementation of the mandates in North America, China, and the European Union would reduce the global life‐cycle global greenhouse gas emissions by about 5%.     

Impacts of foreign policies on the gains from research and promotion

This paper compares llie direct and indirect effects of rest-of-the-world (ROW) policy on welfare in country A: the direct effect due to the change in world price caused by (he policy in (he absence of research/promotion-induced shifts in supply/demand, and the additional (or indirect) effect of the policy on (he welfare gain to country A from its investment in research and promotion. The results showed that the reduction in aggregate economic benefits from research/promotion due to a world price-reducing policy in ROW could be in the range of 25-50% of the direct reduction in social welfare due to the ROW policy. In the case of Australian beef/veal, it is possible for the welfare impact of the ROW policy via research payoff in country A to exceed the direct welfare cost.     

Factors influencing the use of alternative land cultivation technologies in Swaziland: Implications for smallholder farming on customary Swazi Nation Land

Poor land preparation and late planting are among the factors responsible for the decline in food production on customary Swazi Nation Land (SNL). While efforts are being made to develop an improved national land cultivation programme, this process can be helped by identifying factors that influence farmers to use alternative technologies for land cultivation. Using cross-section data collected in 2009 from a random sample of 210 farmers in Komati, three land cultivation technologies were identified; (i) use of tractors; (ii) use of draught animals; and (iii) use of hand hoes. For a country like Swaziland where human health problems, particularly HIV/AIDS, make manual labour a scarce resource, the use of tractors is regarded as a modern technology that can achieve time and labour savings. The empirical evidence from this study indicates that the use of tractors is significantly influenced by household wealth and size of arable land used by households. However, given that land holdings on customary land are generally small, sparsely distributed and often fragmented, tractor hire service providers face relatively high overhead and transaction costs. Furthermore, investment in mechanised farming by individual SNL households is constrained by the lack of secure tenure. Given these challenges, this study makes recommendations for creating an enabling environment that could promote the adoption of improved land cultivation methods by smallholders on customary SNL.     

改革开放三十年我国水产业发展的政策回顾

改革开放三十年,我国水产业发展迅速,在世界上占有举足轻重的地位.水产业的发展得益于我国改革开放后中央领导对水产工作的高度重视,本文首先简要描述了我国水产品产量情况及在世界上的地位,然后回顾水产养殖业改革开放三十年的发展历程, 在此基础上,分析了改革开放以来,党中央领导对水产工作所做出的政策文件批示,指出了水产业的大发展得益于改革开放.     

Efficiency of alternative property right allocations when farmers produce multiple environmental goods under the condition of economies of scope

The efficiency implications of different property right allocations when two environmental goods can be produced under the condition of economies of scope are analysed. It is assumed that an environmental agency – acting on behalf of the community – employs an auction-based mechanism to buy biodiversity services from farmers. However, farmers' production of biodiversity produces a second good as a by-product (e.g., mitigation of a river pollutant) that is valued by point-source emitters who are engaged in a pollution trading market. The efficiency implications of allocating the property right of the good, mitigation, to either the agency or farmers are analysed. If the agency owns the mitigation then the agency can sell mitigation to point-source emitters, offsetting the cost of biodiversity. If farmers own mitigation, then they sell it directly to point-source emitters. Assuming similar transaction costs associated with each property-right allocation, allocating the property right to farmers improves efficiency, as farmers take account of their private information to make profit-maximising decisions about the supply of biodiversity and mitigation; the agency would have trouble accessing this private information.     

The impact of OECD biofuels policies on developing countries

OECD countries’ biofuels policies, derived from energy and environmental legislation and activated by high oil prices, were the primary cause of not only the sudden spike in grain and oilseed prices in 2007–2008 but also of the ensuing price volatility. Even though developing countries have a comparative advantage in biofuels production, they were shut out of rich countries’ biofuel markets by trade discriminating biofuels policies. Developing countries would not have been able to take full advantage of the price spike in the short run anyway given the low supply elasticities and the long time required for biofuel production to come online, unlike for corn‐ethanol. The controversy over the right price of food is misplaced and policy makers should instead focus on improving biofuels policies, which like their counterpart agricultural policies in previous decades, have damaged the welfare of developing countries.     

企业准备金的所得税政策比较研究

如何采取有效的税收政策来保证企业既能及时足额地提取准备金增强其抵御风险能力,又不可能利用准备金政策进行利润操纵或避税,是企业所得税政策研究的核心问题。通过对不同性质企业和不同国家的准备金所得税政策以及税收政策与会计政策进行比较研究,提出要从5个方面对我国企业准备金所得税政策进行改革：建立专项准备金与一般准备金相配合的企业准备金税收待遇模式;制定统一而规范的企业准备金税收政策体系;企业准备金税收政策要与其会计政策相互协调配合;建立准备金信息披露机制,加强准备金外部审计和检查审核;改革企业呆账认定办法,简化呆账核销程序。     

Blocking,attracting, imposing,and aligning: The utility of ASEAN forest and environmental regime policies for strong member states

International institutions, including ‘global regimes’ and ‘regional regimes’, address an increasing number of environmental issues. While in the past much attention was given to global regimes, a plethora of regional institutions and organizations (regional regimes) and their environmental policies have recently gained more momentum in political practice and attention in scholarship. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is one such regime, and is actively developing its own policies relating to (e.g.) forests and the environment. These policies necessarily have to be useful for the regime’s member states; however, we further argue, that within the member states the regime’s policies especially have to be useful for specific member states’ bureaucracies, because it is they who actually develop the policies on behalf of the member states. Further, this paper aims to analyse the utility of ASEAN’s forest and environmental policy for specific member states and their responsible bureaucracies. Our analytical framework builds on regional regime theory, bureaucratic politics, and concepts of actor’s utility and interests. It differentiates the utility of the regional regime policies into several functions: (i) blocking unpleasant international initiatives, (ii) attracting international political or financial support, (iii) imposing rules on other member states, and (iv) aligning the interests of member states against external political opponents. Our results indicate that ASEAN’s environmental and forest policies serve all four functions. For instance, through ASEAN structures, Indonesia is blocking strict CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) regulation of ramin wood to maintain existing ramin protections and business, and the ASEAN Biodiversity Centre is found to be instrumental in blocking ambitious claims towards biodiversity from international actors. In addition, Malaysia and Singapore have imposed an ASEAN wildfire haze pollution agreement onto other member states in order to protect their directly affected interests in air quality and air traffic. ASEAN is also attracting to its members various international environmental funds in areas including climate change, community-based forestry, and sustainable peatland management. Last, member states under ASEAN actively align their positions in international climate negotiations as well as global forest deliberations to enhance their influence. We conclude that policies developed within regional regimes such as ASEAN are aligned with the interests of stronger member states, and their bureaucracies in particular. It remains unclear, however, how powerful these actors need to be in order to make this customization of regime policies valid for them. The results suggest that not only a potential hegemon, but also second or third powers may have this option. At the same time, member states’ activities do not seem to be conducted by states as unitary actors; instead, issue-specific actions are based on the interests of issue-relevant bureaucracies, which are in charge of representing a given member state in a given field of a regime’s policy.     

Price anomalies and effectiveness of macro control policies: Evidence from Chinese housing markets

Since the housing market reform in 1998, China has experienced a rapid growth. Continuous surges in housing prices have been criticized by the public. In light of deviation of the price from its intrinsic value, the central government implements a series of policies to intervene the housing market, but makes little difference. Little vigorous academic work on the price anomaly and impact of macro-control measures has been conducted for housing markets in urban China. This research employs econometric methodologies to investigate the interactions between housing price and market fundamentals, in order to identify the existence of price anomaly in the housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai during 1998–2012. In addition, we conduct asymmetry analysis based on an advanced econometric model to investigate the impact of macro-control measures on price and volume. Our findings suggest that the market inefficiency is indicated by lack of interaction between housing supply and demand in Beijing and Shanghai. The opposite directions of impulse responses of price to income in the two cities are mainly attributed to the different market structures. While price anomalies are found occasionally, the housing prices are considered reasonable in Beijing and Shanghai for most of the time. Furthermore, the analysis on the role of macro-control policies in Chinese housing markets reveals that government interventions regulate the market ineffectively at the current stage.