Trends and Cycles in GDP

The recent experience in the UK of substantial growth in GDP following the recession of the early 1980s has led to renewed interest in the measurement and explanation of business cycles. Development of economic as well as econometric theory has improved our ability both to measure the cycle more accurately and to offer a better explanation of its behaviour. In this Briefing Paper we present an analysis of these two developments.     

股市周期、投资者情绪与盈余管理——来自中国A股市场的证据

将中国大陆1394家上市公司2004年至2007年期间5576份年报,分为熊市悲观样本组与牛市乐观样本组,用Givoly&Hayn(2000)的应计项目模型和Ball&Shiva-kumar(2005)的应计项/现金流模型进行实证检验。研究发现:熊市悲观样本组的应计利润以及非经营性应计利润较低,会计盈余下降周期与熊市悲观周期吻合;牛市乐观样本组的应计利润以及非经营性应计利润较高,会计盈余上升周期与牛市乐观周期一致。上市公司经营者(代理人)操纵应计项目以及刻意安排应计项目在牛市与熊市之间回转,使得熊市悲观周期会计盈余被低估而牛市乐观周期会计盈余被高估,以迎合投资者(委托人)牛市过度乐观而熊市过度悲观的情绪和盈余预期。     

Overeducation in the Labour Market

Abstract.  This paper presents a review of the literature on overeducation. The paper assesses the consistency of overeducation within the context of a number of theoretical frameworks including Human Capital Theory (HCT) and Assignment Theory. The analysis goes on to discuss the various measurement controversies associated with the study of overeducation in order to provide an assessment of the extent to which the impacts of the phenomenon represent an economic reality as opposed to a statistical artefact. After reviewing the literature, it is concluded that the impacts of overeducation are likely to be non‐trivial and that the phenomenon may potentially be costly to individuals and firms, as well as the economy more generally. The existence of overeducation also raises some doubts with respect to the validity of some of the central assumptions and predictions of HCT that are unlikely to be fully explained by gaps in the standard wage equation framework.     

Beauty, Stature and the Labour Market: A British Cohort Study

The influence of physical appearance in the labour market is examined using longitudinal cohort data covering 11,407 individual born in Britain in 1958. Results show that physical appearance has a substantial effect onearnings and employment patterns for both men and women. Irrespective ofgender, those who are assessed as unattractive or short, experience a significant earnings penalty. Tall men receive a pay premium while obese womenexperience a pay penalty. The bulk of the pay differential for appearance arises from employer discrimination, although we find evidence for productivity differences among occupations. The impact of physical appearance is also evident in the marriage market. Among women, those who are tall or obese are less likely to be married; while among men, lower marriage rates are found for those who are short or unattractive.     

Distortionary Taxation and Labour Market Performance

Quarterly estimates of consumption, capital and labour tax rates are provided for six major OECD countries. We then use the 'stylized facts' methodology to evaluate the strength, sign and phase of cyclical comovements between tax rates and labour market variables. Labour taxes distort labour market de-cisions and help explain why the unemployment rate is so high in continental Europe. However, labour taxes cannot be the only determinant of diverging unemployment rates since the labour force is also reduced by higher taxes. Finally, we offer some preliminary structural evidence showing employment growth in particular to be negatively related to the taxation of labour.     

Demographic Trends in the Industrial World: Europe's Declining Population?

What will be the effects of a decline in population? David Coleman, of Oxford University, shows that Europe is faced by a population decline between now and 2020 and reviews some of the consequences.     

Long-term Unemployment and the Labour Market: some further results

In a previous Briefing Paper we discussed the current high rate of long-term unemployment. We described the process by which the ratio of long-term unemployment to total unemployment was determined and suggested some explanations for the rapid rise in long-term unemployment since 1980. We also investigated the role of long-term unemployment in shifting the relationship between unemployment and vacancies. In this Briefing Paper we extend our study to consider the relationship between unemployment and inflation. In particular we discuss the apparent failure of high unemployment to affect the growth of real wages. Finally we compare some policies for reducing unemployment.     

Trade,Technology and the Labour Market: The Case of South Africa*

This study advances previous work on the effects of trade and technological change on labour markets within the framework of Heckscher–Ohlin trade theory. We provide evidence for an unskilled labour abundant developing country by employing dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques. For South African manufacturing, trade‐mandated increases in earnings are positive for labour and negative for capital whilst technology‐mandated increases are negative for both factors. We also find it important to take account of endogeneity issues in analysing the impact of technology and price changes on factor returns and in isolating factor‐ and sector‐bias of technological changes.     

Promotions in the Spanish Labour Market: Differences by Gender

In this paper we compare the professional careers of women and men in the Spanish labour market. We use a sample from the Encuesta de Estructura, Conciencia y Biografia de Clase (1991) to estimate count data models (negative binomial models) to explain the number of promotions received in the firm, for males and females separately. Then, using the estimated coefficients from these models, we apply a variant of Oaxaca's decomposition approach to divide the gap in average promotions by gender into two parts: one of them due to differences in endowments and the other is associated with differences in the 'return' of such as endowments in terms of opportunities of upward mobility. The findings indicate that women receive fewer promotions than men with the same qualifications due to differential treatment in the market.     

Restrictive Practices in South Africa's Labour Market

Dr Stanley Siebert, of the University of Birmingham, complements Professor Williams' analysis with a detailed history of the measures South African whites have adopted to safeguard their privileged position in the South African economy.     

Wage Formation,Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness*

Empirical studies of regional wage formation and interregional migration routinely include the regional unemployment rate as indicator of local labour market tightness. However, these studies are usually motivated by economic theories that emphasize transition probabilities between unemployment and employment, and the unemployment rate is an imperfect proxy for these probabilities. We use a large micro data set to compute estimates of the rate of outflow from unemployment for 90 Norwegian travel‐to‐work areas. The outflow rates perform better than traditional measures of regional labour market tightness in panel data analyses of regional wages and interregional migration.     

Transient Jobs and Lifetime Jobs: Dualism in the British Labour Market

How long does a job last in Britain? We find that many workers have very short jobs and many have very long jobs. We estimate that in 1990, 40 percent of men were in jobs that will last 20 years or more. On the other hand, 24 percent were in jobs lasting less than five years. We conclude that the labour market is still capable of offering ‘lifetime jobs’ to many workers. Policy analysis of issues such as reform of the welfare state, pensions, and training should take note that reports of the death of ‘jobs for life’ appear to be exaggerated.     

Representation of Developments in Labour Market Research

A knowledge graph is a kind of semantic network representing some scientific theory. The paper describes the state of art in this field and addresses a number of problems that has not been solved yet. These are: implicit relations, strength of (causal) relations, and conditions. Concepts might be too broad or complex to be used properly, directions for solving this problem are explored. The solutions are applied to a knowledge graph in the field of labour markets.     

Regional Imbalances and Market Potential in Brazil

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of market potential on regional wage imbalances between Brazilian municipalities. Using data from the 1980, 1991 and 2000 Brazilian Census, which render 3,630 comparable municipality areas, we estimate the NEG's wage equation using a spatial panel data model accounting for endogeneity. Our results show new evidence of a strong relationship between market potential and wages, indicating that regional attributes, as well as individual, are correlated with wages and their regional disparities.

Inégalités régionales et potentiel commercial au Brésil

RÉSUMÉ La présente communication évalue les effets du potentiel commercial des inégalités salariales régionales entre différentes municipalités au Brésil. Sur la base de données extraites des recensements effectués en 1980, 1991 et 2000 au Brésil, permettant de comparer 3,630 municipalités, nous sommes en mesure d'estimer l’équation salariale de NEG en utilisant un modèle de données de panel spatial, en tenant compte de l'endogénéité. Nos résultats fournissent de nouvelles informations sur l'existence de rapports étroits entre le potentiel commercial et les salaires, indiquant la corrélation entre les attributs, tant régionaux qu'individuels, et les salaires ainsi que leurs disparités régionales.

Desequilibrios regionales y potencial de mercado en Brasil

EXTRACTO Este trabajo estima los efectos del potencial de mercado sobre los desequilibrios salariales regionales entre municipalidades brasileñas. Utilizando datos extraídos de los censos brasileños de 1980, 1991 y 2000, que incluyen 3630 áreas municipales comparables, estimamos la ecuación salarial de NEG empleando un modelo espacial de datos de panel que tiene en cuenta la endogeneidad. Nuestros resultados muestran nueva evidencia de una fuerte relación entre el potencial de mercado y los salarios, indicando que los atributos regionales, así como los individuales, se correlacionan con los salarios y sus disparidades regionales.

     

Government Employment and Wages and Labour Market Performance

Government wage, benefit, and employment decisions are not taken on a profit-maximizing basis, and have a substantial impact on aggregate labour market performance and unemployment. In a two-sector labour market model with free mobility of labour, an increase in government wages or benefits reduces private sector employment, and government employment is not an effective counter-cyclical instrument. Empirical tests for Greece confirm that the expansion of the public sector in the 1980s contributed to the deterioration of labour market performance.     

中国经济增长与贫困减少——基于产业构成视角的分析

本文从经济增长的产业构成视角切入,就经济增长与贫困减少论题进行了实证研究。研究发现,虽然三大产业的增长都是经济增长的重要源泉,但在减少贫困方面,第一产业和第三产业增长的减贫效应非常显著,而第二产业增长的减贫效应微弱。将总体样本分为沿海地区与内陆地区的拓展回归分析表明,只有第一产业增长对沿海地区贫困减少产生显著的影响;相比之下,第一产业和第三产业增长均有助于内陆地区贫困减少。进一步研究显示,产业劳动力密集度和不同行业对劳动力技能需求的异质性是导致上述产业减贫效应差异的重要原因。