Trends and Cycles in GDP

The recent experience in the UK of substantial growth in GDP following the recession of the early 1980s has led to renewed interest in the measurement and explanation of business cycles. Development of economic as well as econometric theory has improved our ability both to measure the cycle more accurately and to offer a better explanation of its behaviour. In this Briefing Paper we present an analysis of these two developments.     

股市周期、投资者情绪与盈余管理——来自中国A股市场的证据

将中国大陆1394家上市公司2004年至2007年期间5576份年报,分为熊市悲观样本组与牛市乐观样本组,用Givoly&Hayn(2000)的应计项目模型和Ball&Shiva-kumar(2005)的应计项/现金流模型进行实证检验。研究发现:熊市悲观样本组的应计利润以及非经营性应计利润较低,会计盈余下降周期与熊市悲观周期吻合;牛市乐观样本组的应计利润以及非经营性应计利润较高,会计盈余上升周期与牛市乐观周期一致。上市公司经营者(代理人)操纵应计项目以及刻意安排应计项目在牛市与熊市之间回转,使得熊市悲观周期会计盈余被低估而牛市乐观周期会计盈余被高估,以迎合投资者(委托人)牛市过度乐观而熊市过度悲观的情绪和盈余预期。     

Overeducation in the Labour Market

Abstract.  This paper presents a review of the literature on overeducation. The paper assesses the consistency of overeducation within the context of a number of theoretical frameworks including Human Capital Theory (HCT) and Assignment Theory. The analysis goes on to discuss the various measurement controversies associated with the study of overeducation in order to provide an assessment of the extent to which the impacts of the phenomenon represent an economic reality as opposed to a statistical artefact. After reviewing the literature, it is concluded that the impacts of overeducation are likely to be non‐trivial and that the phenomenon may potentially be costly to individuals and firms, as well as the economy more generally. The existence of overeducation also raises some doubts with respect to the validity of some of the central assumptions and predictions of HCT that are unlikely to be fully explained by gaps in the standard wage equation framework.     

Beauty, Stature and the Labour Market: A British Cohort Study

The influence of physical appearance in the labour market is examined using longitudinal cohort data covering 11,407 individual born in Britain in 1958. Results show that physical appearance has a substantial effect onearnings and employment patterns for both men and women. Irrespective ofgender, those who are assessed as unattractive or short, experience a significant earnings penalty. Tall men receive a pay premium while obese womenexperience a pay penalty. The bulk of the pay differential for appearance arises from employer discrimination, although we find evidence for productivity differences among occupations. The impact of physical appearance is also evident in the marriage market. Among women, those who are tall or obese are less likely to be married; while among men, lower marriage rates are found for those who are short or unattractive.     

Demographic Trends in the Industrial World: Europe's Declining Population?

What will be the effects of a decline in population? David Coleman, of Oxford University, shows that Europe is faced by a population decline between now and 2020 and reviews some of the consequences.     

Distortionary Taxation and Labour Market Performance

Quarterly estimates of consumption, capital and labour tax rates are provided for six major OECD countries. We then use the 'stylized facts' methodology to evaluate the strength, sign and phase of cyclical comovements between tax rates and labour market variables. Labour taxes distort labour market de-cisions and help explain why the unemployment rate is so high in continental Europe. However, labour taxes cannot be the only determinant of diverging unemployment rates since the labour force is also reduced by higher taxes. Finally, we offer some preliminary structural evidence showing employment growth in particular to be negatively related to the taxation of labour.     

Promotions in the Spanish Labour Market: Differences by Gender

In this paper we compare the professional careers of women and men in the Spanish labour market. We use a sample from the Encuesta de Estructura, Conciencia y Biografia de Clase (1991) to estimate count data models (negative binomial models) to explain the number of promotions received in the firm, for males and females separately. Then, using the estimated coefficients from these models, we apply a variant of Oaxaca's decomposition approach to divide the gap in average promotions by gender into two parts: one of them due to differences in endowments and the other is associated with differences in the 'return' of such as endowments in terms of opportunities of upward mobility. The findings indicate that women receive fewer promotions than men with the same qualifications due to differential treatment in the market.     

Representation of Developments in Labour Market Research

A knowledge graph is a kind of semantic network representing some scientific theory. The paper describes the state of art in this field and addresses a number of problems that has not been solved yet. These are: implicit relations, strength of (causal) relations, and conditions. Concepts might be too broad or complex to be used properly, directions for solving this problem are explored. The solutions are applied to a knowledge graph in the field of labour markets.     

Restrictive Practices in South Africa's Labour Market

Dr Stanley Siebert, of the University of Birmingham, complements Professor Williams' analysis with a detailed history of the measures South African whites have adopted to safeguard their privileged position in the South African economy.     

Transient Jobs and Lifetime Jobs: Dualism in the British Labour Market

How long does a job last in Britain? We find that many workers have very short jobs and many have very long jobs. We estimate that in 1990, 40 percent of men were in jobs that will last 20 years or more. On the other hand, 24 percent were in jobs lasting less than five years. We conclude that the labour market is still capable of offering ‘lifetime jobs’ to many workers. Policy analysis of issues such as reform of the welfare state, pensions, and training should take note that reports of the death of ‘jobs for life’ appear to be exaggerated.     

中国经济增长与贫困减少——基于产业构成视角的分析

本文从经济增长的产业构成视角切入,就经济增长与贫困减少论题进行了实证研究。研究发现,虽然三大产业的增长都是经济增长的重要源泉,但在减少贫困方面,第一产业和第三产业增长的减贫效应非常显著,而第二产业增长的减贫效应微弱。将总体样本分为沿海地区与内陆地区的拓展回归分析表明,只有第一产业增长对沿海地区贫困减少产生显著的影响;相比之下,第一产业和第三产业增长均有助于内陆地区贫困减少。进一步研究显示,产业劳动力密集度和不同行业对劳动力技能需求的异质性是导致上述产业减贫效应差异的重要原因。     

Government Employment and Wages and Labour Market Performance

Government wage, benefit, and employment decisions are not taken on a profit-maximizing basis, and have a substantial impact on aggregate labour market performance and unemployment. In a two-sector labour market model with free mobility of labour, an increase in government wages or benefits reduces private sector employment, and government employment is not an effective counter-cyclical instrument. Empirical tests for Greece confirm that the expansion of the public sector in the 1980s contributed to the deterioration of labour market performance.     

Urban Poverty,Segregation and Social Networks in São Paulo and Salvador,Brazil

General consensus exists concerning the relevance of networks and space in poverty situations, despite a considerable dispute on the prominence of each element. While social‐support and poverty debates highlight the joint importance of space and networks, the research agenda on contemporary communities suggests that networks have recently started replacing space in social integration. These debates mainly consider networks and ties normatively and are restricted to the global North, hampering the formulation of comparative interpretations and more theoretical conclusions. This article discusses the relationship between space, sociability and poverty, based on research results on networks of poor individuals in two major Brazilian metropolises—Salvador and São Paulo. Research indicates the existence of great heterogeneity in the networks of poor individuals, although with substantial differences, on average, to middle‐class individuals. Certain types of networks and sociability are systematically associated with better living conditions, employment and income. Additionally, network mobilization by individuals presents important regularities associated with social mechanisms, understood as regular patterns that trigger or cause certain results. These mechanisms explain to a great extent the heterogeneity of networks, and mediate the individual's access to opportunities and everyday assistance. They therefore contribute decisively to the production (and reproduction) of urban poverty.     

我国劳动力成本状况与中美经济关系

本文主要从劳动力成本的角度对中关经济关系进行了深入探讨,结果发现:随着中国社会保障体系的逐步健全、劳动力市场的不断完善、劳动力增速的放缓、技术进步和资本深化等多种因素的出现,中国的劳动力成本将会继续上升,加之人民币升值等不利因素影响,中国出口会面临严峻挑战.短期内,中国的相对低劳动成本优势仍然会保持,所以尽管美国经济发生衰退,对中国进口和投资会减少,这会减少中美贸易逆差,但不会太多.