A Complete-Market Generalization of the Black-Scholes Model

The author proposes a new single-stock generalization of the Black-Scholes model. The stock price process is Markovian, the volatility is time-varying, and the market is complete. We also consider the option pricing based on our model and a connection with the equilibrium theory.     

The bias in Black-Scholes/Black implied volatility: An analysis of equity and energy markets

In this paper we examine the extent of the bias between Black and Scholes (1973)/Black (1976) implied volatility and realized term volatility in the equity and energy markets. Explicitly modeling a market price of volatility risk, we extend previous work by demonstrating that Black-Scholes is an upward-biased predictor of future realized volatility in S&P 500/S&P 100 stock-market indices. Turning to the Black options-on-futures formula, we apply our methodology to options on energy contracts, a market in which crises are characterized by a positive correlation between price-returns and volatilities: After controlling for both term-structure and seasonality effects, our theoretical and empirical findings suggest a similar upward bias in the volatility implied in energy options contracts. We show the bias in both Black-Scholes/Black implied volatilities to be related to a negative market price of volatility risk. JEL Classification G12 · G13     

Asymmetry in Stock Returns Following Block Trades on the Australian Stock Exchange: A Note

A number of recent US. studies have examined the price impact of large (block) trades using intraday data. A major finding is that the price movement following block trades continues upwards following purchases but reverses following sales. This asymmetry in price behaviour, which suggests that block sellers pay a liquidity premium while block buyers do not, has been described as 'intriguing' and a 'key puzzle'. The purpose of this note is to determine whether the phenomenon exists on the Australian Stock Exchange. Evidence consistent with the 'puzzling' asymmetry is shown to exist when returns are measured from the block trade until the close of trade. Contrary to US. findings, which have shown that prices appear to reverse following both block purchases and sales in transaction time analysis, the asymmetry in price behaviour is also demonstrated to exist in transaction returns for the ASX. All results are found to be robust to a number of research design innovations and data partitions.     

Price discovery in the U.S. stock and stock options markets: A portfolio approach

Option prices vary with not only the underlying asset price, but also volatilities and higher moments. In this paper, we use a portfolio of options to seclude the value change of the portfolio from the impact of volatility and higher moments. We apply this portfolio approach to the price discovery analysis in the U.S. stock and stock options markets. We find that the price discovery on the directional movement of the stock price mainly occurs in the stock market, more so now than before as an increasing proportion of options market makers adopt automated quoting algorithms. Nevertheless, the options market becomes more informative during periods of significant options trading activities. The informativeness of the options quotes increases further when the options trading activity generates net sell or buy pressure on the underlying stock price, even more so when the pressure is consistent with deviations between the stock and the options market quotes. JEL Classification C52, G10, G13, G14     

The dark side of financial innovation: A case study of the pricing of a retail financial product

The offering prices of 64 issues of a popular retail structured equity product were, on average, almost 8% greater than estimates of the products' fair market values obtained using option pricing methods. Under reasonable assumptions about the underlying stocks' expected returns, the mean expected return estimate on the structured products is slightly below zero. The products do not provide tax, liquidity, or other benefits, and it is difficult to rationalize their purchase by informed rational investors. Our findings are, however, consistent with the recent hypothesis that issuing firms might shroud some aspects of innovative securities or introduce complexity to exploit uninformed investors.     

A Field Study of the Review Process: Research Note

Despite the stated importance of the audit review process in auditing standards and textbooks, research on the process itself is limited. This study provides evidence on the nature and purpose of the review process by examining the actual review notes prepared by managers of a Big-6 accounting firm. A sample of twenty-eight audit engagements resulting in 3,008 separate review notes was examined. The results suggest that quality control aspects appear to be the main focus of the review process. Review notes sometimes indicated the need to gather further information and/or undertake additional testing, and provided direct as well as indirect advice on the audit approach to subordinates. Few surprises resulted from the review process, and the review notes and approaches varied among managers.     

成语谐音仿拟广告词理解的认知阐释

从认知语言学中的完形趋向理论和概念合成理论出发,重新审视成语谐音仿拟广告词。这一尝试性分析揭示了该类广告词理解的认知过程,扩展了这两个理论对语言现象的解释力,同时也为解释这类广告词广受青睐的深层原因提供了一种新的阐释空间,从而丰富了对这一语言现象的研究。     

成语谐音仿拟广告词理解的认知阐释

从认知语言学中的完形趋向理论和概念合成理论出发,重新审视成语谐音仿拟广告词。这一尝试性分析揭示了该类广告词理解的认知过程,扩展了这两个理论对语言现象的解释力,同时也为解释这类广告词广受青睐的深层原因提供了一种新的阐释空间,从而丰富了对这一语言现象的研究。     

Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note

The predictability of stock returns is often assessed using classical statistical significance from predictive regressions. Statistical inference, however, can belie the economic importance with which investors regard various predictors. This paper examines the influence that predictors have on an investor's optimal portfolio allocations. The results show that return predictability is sufficient to induce horizon effects in optimal allocations. After incorporating estimation risk, however, little evidence of predictability remains. We also assess the relative importance of three predictor variables. While dividend yield is the most important predictor, optimal allocations are also sensitive to the term spread and the relative bill rate.     

Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach

The majority of classification models developed have used a pool of financial ratios combined with statistical variable selection techniques to maximize the accuracy of the classifier constructed. Rather than follow this approach, this article seeks to provide an explicit economic basis for the selection of variables for inclusion in bankruptcy models. This search to develop an economic theory of bankruptcy augments the existing bankruptcy prediction literature. Variables which occur in bankruptcy probability expressions derived from the solution of a stochastic optimizing model of firm behaviour are 'proxied' by variables constructed from financial statement data. The random nature of the lifetime of a single firm provides the rationale for the use of duration or hazard-based statistical methods in the validation of the derived bankruptcy probability expressions. Results of the validation exercise confirm that the majority of variables included in the empirical hazard formulation behave in a way that is consistent with the model of the firm. The results highlight the need for developments in the measurement of earnings dispersion.     

学习·交流·发展——2009年中评协《中国资产评估》通联培训会议侧记

中国资产评估协会<中国资产评估>通联培训会议于2009年7月6日在宁夏银川召开.     

The Role of Private Knowledge in Reducing the Information Wedge: A Research Note

Abstract:   In this first ever study to examine the marginal importance of collateral level vis‐à‐vis reputation in reducing information asymmetry, we find using unique data for UK business credit, that pre‐existing reputation is the single‐most important determinant in inducing a bank to extend a loan. Moreover, a bank responds positively to higher levels of collateral and negatively to higher credit requests. Similar to Cole (1998) , but controlling for collateral level, we find that it helps to have banked with the lender before. Non‐trivial information search costs imply an important role for reputation in extending credits.     

Budgeting—the Role of Trust and Participation: A Research Note

Prior studies have found a combination of an evaluative style with high budget emphasis and high participation to be associated with better behavioural outcomes (e.g., lower job-related tension) than all other combinations of budget emphasis and participation. Yet there has been little research to investigate the theory on why this particular combination of budget emphasis and participation is associated with better behavioural outcomes. A path analytical model, which investigates the intervening effects of trust and participation on the relationship between budget emphasis and job-related tension, was used. Senior Norwegian managers were selected as subjects for this study. The results indicate that budget emphasis has an insignificant direct effect on job-related tension but a strong indirect effect through trust and participation. Trust also has an intervening effect on the relationship between budgetary participation and job-related tension. It is therefore possible to conclude that high budget emphasis is associated with high budgetary participation and high trust. High trust, in turn, is associated with reduced subordinates' job-related tension.     

Pricing the Risks of Default: A Note on Madan and Unal

In their well-known article, Madan and Unal (1998) presented one of the first intensity-based credit risk models. In this approach the default intensity is directly linked to the market value of the firm's equity. In order to derive the probability of default Madan and Unal have to solve a partial differential equation (PDE). Here, we show that one of the transformations in the derivation of the solution of this PDE is not correct and analyze the difference between the correct solution of the PDE and the solution based on the incorrect transformation. As a consequence of the transformation error the credit risk of a debtor is systematically underestimated.     

Measuring Effective Tax Rates in the Presence of Multiple Inputs: A Production Based Approach

We suggest a new method for comparing tax regimes acrossjurisdictions. The approach aggregates taxes on inputs by focussingon production, rather than investment, decisions. Taxes on variousinputs affect production decisions by increasing marginal costs.By calculating the difference between the tax-inclusive and tax-exclusivemarginal cost of production, we determine the effective excisetax rate on marginal costs implied by all of the various taxesimposed upon the firms inputs. The effective tax rate on marginalcosts provides a convenient summary measure of the potentialimpact of taxes on all inputs on production location decisions.     

东亚货币一体化的国际风险分担机制分析——基于第二代最优货币区理论的拓展

在经济全球化的背景下,区域货币一体化对于区域内各国的经济发展有着重要意义。当前的国际金融危机使东亚地区货币合作又重新进入人们的视野,关于东亚货币一体化的可行性分析也进入了一个崭新的阶段。此时,我们更需要从抵御风险,实现共同发展的角度来探讨东亚货币一体化。中国作为东亚区域内有影响力的大国,应对此问题有深入思考。本文对最优货币区理论进行了有益的拓展,建立了基于微观基础的国际风险分担机制模型,并运用动态优化的方法严格证明了货币一体化所形成的国际风险分担机制使成员方达到消费保险的目的,这为进一步推动东亚货币一体化的建设提供了新的理论依据。     

征信系统、中小企业融资与博弈论初探

导致中小企业融资难问题的最直接原因不是信息不对称、融资担保制度缺失以及信贷管理模式滞后等外部因素,而是中小企业自身的失信行为。征信系统通过信用约束机制,改变银企博弈收益矩阵,从而使中小企业在收益最大化条件下自觉守信,从根本上解决中小企业融资难问题。     

实物期权研究述评

实物期权思想是Wcisbrod（1974）和Arrow（1974）等人研究在给定不可逆条件下政府投资决策时首先提出的。随后,实物期权被广泛运用于资本预算和价值评估领域,相比传统的资本预算模型（DCF）具有无比优越性。而将实物期权理论用于解释企业存在与效率边际则为企业理论提供了一个动态的观察角度,必将对企业理论的发展产生深远影响。     

A case of an early 1900s principal-agent relationship in the Mississippi lumber industry

Correspondence for the L. N. Dantzler Lumber Company, dating from 1904, survives in the Lumber Archives of the University of Mississippi. The correspondence is from the personal files of R. Breland, who rose to the position of office manager of the Dantzler Mills. An analysis of the correspondence reveals a unique agency relationship between the Dantzler Lumber Company and Breland. Breland was hired by the Dantzlers as a land agent. At the time, he was also employed by the Finkbine Lumber Company, a competitor of Dantzler's. Breland's behaviour supports the traditional behavioural assumption in agency theory that individuals will maximize their own self-interests with guile. His access to information allowed him to profit at the expense of others. He used his connections in land-related transactions to achieve personal gain.     

Comparing Trading Performance of the Constant and Dynamic Hedge Models: A Note

The constant and dynamic hedge models, with the presence of transaction costs are compared for the Share Price Index futures contract trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. The optimal hedge ratio is estimated by using a dynamic, bivariate two-stage model for the return equation with a dynamic GARCH error structure for the conditional hedge ratios. When portfolio projections are compared based on their profit positions (net of transaction costs), the GARCH hedge model dominates the next best competitor in terms of trading profit.