A Complete-Market Generalization of the Black-Scholes Model

The author proposes a new single-stock generalization of the Black-Scholes model. The stock price process is Markovian, the volatility is time-varying, and the market is complete. We also consider the option pricing based on our model and a connection with the equilibrium theory.     

The bias in Black-Scholes/Black implied volatility: An analysis of equity and energy markets

In this paper we examine the extent of the bias between Black and Scholes (1973)/Black (1976) implied volatility and realized term volatility in the equity and energy markets. Explicitly modeling a market price of volatility risk, we extend previous work by demonstrating that Black-Scholes is an upward-biased predictor of future realized volatility in S&P 500/S&P 100 stock-market indices. Turning to the Black options-on-futures formula, we apply our methodology to options on energy contracts, a market in which crises are characterized by a positive correlation between price-returns and volatilities: After controlling for both term-structure and seasonality effects, our theoretical and empirical findings suggest a similar upward bias in the volatility implied in energy options contracts. We show the bias in both Black-Scholes/Black implied volatilities to be related to a negative market price of volatility risk. JEL Classification G12 · G13     

Asymmetry in Stock Returns Following Block Trades on the Australian Stock Exchange: A Note

A number of recent US. studies have examined the price impact of large (block) trades using intraday data. A major finding is that the price movement following block trades continues upwards following purchases but reverses following sales. This asymmetry in price behaviour, which suggests that block sellers pay a liquidity premium while block buyers do not, has been described as 'intriguing' and a 'key puzzle'. The purpose of this note is to determine whether the phenomenon exists on the Australian Stock Exchange. Evidence consistent with the 'puzzling' asymmetry is shown to exist when returns are measured from the block trade until the close of trade. Contrary to US. findings, which have shown that prices appear to reverse following both block purchases and sales in transaction time analysis, the asymmetry in price behaviour is also demonstrated to exist in transaction returns for the ASX. All results are found to be robust to a number of research design innovations and data partitions.     

A Generalization of the Formulas for Options on the Maximum or the Minimum of Several Assets

Abstract

This paper generalizes the option on the maximum or the minimum of two assets (several assets) within a stochastic interest rate framework. A Gaussian model is used to describe the interest rates. Closed-form solutions for the market values are presented. The use of the options is illustrated with numerical examples.     

Over-the-Counter Option Market Dividend Protection and “Biases” in the Black-Scholes Model: A Note

Most options are traded over-the-counter (OTC) and are dividend “protected;” the exercise price decreases on the ex date by an amount equal to the dividend. This protection completely inhibits the early exercise of American call options. Nevertheless, OTC-protected options have market values which differ systematically from Black-Scholes values for European options on non-dividend paying stocks. The pricing difference is related to both the variance of the underlying stock return and to time until expiration of the option, but it is quite small in dollar amount.     

Price discovery in the U.S. stock and stock options markets: A portfolio approach

Option prices vary with not only the underlying asset price, but also volatilities and higher moments. In this paper, we use a portfolio of options to seclude the value change of the portfolio from the impact of volatility and higher moments. We apply this portfolio approach to the price discovery analysis in the U.S. stock and stock options markets. We find that the price discovery on the directional movement of the stock price mainly occurs in the stock market, more so now than before as an increasing proportion of options market makers adopt automated quoting algorithms. Nevertheless, the options market becomes more informative during periods of significant options trading activities. The informativeness of the options quotes increases further when the options trading activity generates net sell or buy pressure on the underlying stock price, even more so when the pressure is consistent with deviations between the stock and the options market quotes. JEL Classification C52, G10, G13, G14     

Using Academic Research for the Post‐Implementation Review of Accounting Standards: A Note

The IASB and the FASB discuss formal processes for a post‐implementation review (PIR). This note contributes to this discussion in three ways. First, we argue that academics can, and should, play a significant role in a PIR. Second, we suggest a framework for empirical studies that are useful in a PIR, which enhances understandability of accounting research by standard setters. And third, we propose a process by which standard setters can take advantage of and embed academic research in a PIR.     

The Skewness of the Price Change Distribution: A New Touchstone for Sticky Price Models

We present a new way of empirically evaluating various sticky price models that are used to assess the degree of monetary nonneutrality. While menu cost models uniformly predict that price change skewness and dispersion fall with inflation, in the Calvo model, both rise. However, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the late 1970s onward show that skewness does not fall with inflation, while dispersion does. We present a random menu cost model that, with a menu cost distribution that has a strong Calvo flavor, can match the empirical patterns. The model exhibits much more monetary nonneutrality than existing menu cost models.     

The dynamics in the spot,futures, and call options with basis asymmetries: an intraday analysis in a generalized multivariate GARCH-M MSKST framework

The main purpose of the study is to explore the dynamic relationship among the TAIEX spot, futures, and options markets by proposing an innovative multivariable GARCH-M MSKST (Multivariate Skewed-Student distribution) model. In addition to the considerable feedback effects of these three markets in terms of return transmissions, a significant bidirectional relationship is also found in volatility transmissions between futures and spot markets, and unidirectional spillover occurs from futures to options markets. Specifically, futures are found to exert the most influence on spot and options, and play an important role in disclosing information and pricing discovery to the other two markets. Comparing the magnitude of the effect the positive and negative basis has on spot prices, it is evident that positive basis has a greater impact on the spot market than negative basis does. Of interest, our study shows that positive basis has even more effect than negative basis does on the conditional variance of return on spot and futures.

The dark side of financial innovation: A case study of the pricing of a retail financial product

The offering prices of 64 issues of a popular retail structured equity product were, on average, almost 8% greater than estimates of the products' fair market values obtained using option pricing methods. Under reasonable assumptions about the underlying stocks' expected returns, the mean expected return estimate on the structured products is slightly below zero. The products do not provide tax, liquidity, or other benefits, and it is difficult to rationalize their purchase by informed rational investors. Our findings are, however, consistent with the recent hypothesis that issuing firms might shroud some aspects of innovative securities or introduce complexity to exploit uninformed investors.     

行为视角下的疫情分析:成因、影响与对策综述

本文从流行性传染病特征和医学传染病模型出发,对影响疫情的非理性因素、疫情的直接与间接结果进行文献综述,分析极端事件中的反应不足与过度反应。在成因上,本文梳理了不完全信息贝叶斯学习和显著性理论等决策行为假说,来理解人们行为背后的信息处理机制和情感作用渠道。在结果上,疫情及有关政策对经济金融活动的直接影响尚缺准确评估,恐慌情绪与羊群行为、社会信任危机、风险态度转变及异质性信念等疫情间接结果也有待深入研究。最后,本文基于已有文献和疫情行为分析,对未来学术研究及政策管理提供思路和建议。     

Presentation of the English translation of Ettore Majorana's paper: The value of statistical laws in physics and social sciences

We consider a consistent pricing model of government bonds, interest-rate swaps and basis swaps in one currency within the no-arbitrage framework. To this end, we propose a three yield-curve model, one for discounting cash flows, one for calculating LIBOR deposit rates and one for calculating coupon rates of government bonds. The derivation of the yield curves from observed data is presented, and the option prices on a swap or a government bond are studied. A one-factor quadratic Gaussian model is proposed as a specific model, and is shown to provide a very good fit to the current Japanese low-interest-rate environment.     

Size and Administration Costs in the Voluntary Sector: A Note

Despite the recent major changes to regulation of the voluntary sector as a result of the Charities Acts 1992 and 1993 the independent Commission on the Future of the Voluntary Sector has now suggested further major changes in the definition and control of the sector. This paper looks at the growth of registered charities during this decade compared with the decline in the number of registered companies and examines evidence on economies of scale in the charities. Possibly charities should be encouraged to promote mergers and acquisitions as a means to greater efficiencies in charitable activity.     

A Field Study of the Review Process: Research Note

Despite the stated importance of the audit review process in auditing standards and textbooks, research on the process itself is limited. This study provides evidence on the nature and purpose of the review process by examining the actual review notes prepared by managers of a Big-6 accounting firm. A sample of twenty-eight audit engagements resulting in 3,008 separate review notes was examined. The results suggest that quality control aspects appear to be the main focus of the review process. Review notes sometimes indicated the need to gather further information and/or undertake additional testing, and provided direct as well as indirect advice on the audit approach to subordinates. Few surprises resulted from the review process, and the review notes and approaches varied among managers.     

The Production of Goods in Excess of Demand: A Generalization of Self-Protection

We consider a risk-averse firm producing a limited number of goods that can be defective. The firm must determine its level of production before knowing which goods will be defective. Such is the case, for example, for a producer of telecommunications satellites. The problem under scrutiny can be interpreted as a generalization of self-protection for more than two states of nature. In our model, the firm determines jointly its level of production and its demand for insurance. It is shown that, under reasonable assumptions, the two strategies are complements.     

成语谐音仿拟广告词理解的认知阐释

从认知语言学中的完形趋向理论和概念合成理论出发,重新审视成语谐音仿拟广告词。这一尝试性分析揭示了该类广告词理解的认知过程,扩展了这两个理论对语言现象的解释力,同时也为解释这类广告词广受青睐的深层原因提供了一种新的阐释空间,从而丰富了对这一语言现象的研究。     

成语谐音仿拟广告词理解的认知阐释

从认知语言学中的完形趋向理论和概念合成理论出发,重新审视成语谐音仿拟广告词。这一尝试性分析揭示了该类广告词理解的认知过程,扩展了这两个理论对语言现象的解释力,同时也为解释这类广告词广受青睐的深层原因提供了一种新的阐释空间,从而丰富了对这一语言现象的研究。     

Measuring the Comparability of Company Accounts Conditionally: A Research Note

Comparability indices summarize the level of comparability between companies at a national and international level, an issue of importance to investors, regulators, and standard setters. Comparability indices can identify areas where comparability is low and where comparability is deteriorating. Furthermore, they can be used to quantify the extent to which initiatives such as International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are successful in raising comparability between company accounts. Despite past literature emphasizing how factors other than country influence accounting methods used by companies, current comparability indices ignore these other factors. This paper introduces new national and international indices within the T index framework to fill this gap in the literature. Formula for the new national and international indices, and their standard errors, are provided. An example using European data is used to demonstrate the calculations and illustrate the importance of controlling for these firm specific factors.     

Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note

The predictability of stock returns is often assessed using classical statistical significance from predictive regressions. Statistical inference, however, can belie the economic importance with which investors regard various predictors. This paper examines the influence that predictors have on an investor's optimal portfolio allocations. The results show that return predictability is sufficient to induce horizon effects in optimal allocations. After incorporating estimation risk, however, little evidence of predictability remains. We also assess the relative importance of three predictor variables. While dividend yield is the most important predictor, optimal allocations are also sensitive to the term spread and the relative bill rate.