Auditor environmental assessments

Classic rule-based systems appeared to have enormous potential for accounting and auditing problems. Unfortunately, there has been limited adoption of those systems. Why have those systems not lived up to their promise? This paper pursues one potential explanation.Typically, expert systems require that the user provides it with environmental assessments. Unfortunately, those assessments vary based on who is making the assessment. This paper finds that a group of partners and managers, when compared to a group of staff, each generated different environmental assessments to the same situation. However, in a rule-based system, different assessments can lead the user to different recommendations. As a result, different users in the same situations can generate different solutions from the same system. Accordingly, the quality of the recommendations from an expert systems are not “user neutral.”.     

The effects of decision aid structural restrictiveness on cognitive load,perceived usefulness,and reuse intentions

As accounting environments become increasingly automated through information technology support systems, the underlying systems are increasingly restrictive in an effort to direct user behavior and decision making. However, consistent with the theory of technology dominance, restrictive systems have been found to dominate users' decision processes and to have a detrimental effect when decisions require knowledge from outside the system's capability. This study expands upon this research through an examination of users' preferences for more (less) restrictive systems based on their own level of domain knowledge. Incorporating theory on task technology fit, we theorize that users with less knowledge will prefer to be dominated by the system, while users with greater levels of knowledge will prefer a system that provides the user with a level of control over the decision process rather than submitting entirely to the decision aid's control. These theorizations are empirically tested through an experimental design that varies the level of systems restrictiveness across groups of novice and experienced participants. The results confirm that novice (experienced) participants find a highly restrictive system substantially (minimally) reduces cognitive load, increases (decreases) usefulness of the decision aid, and strengthens (weakens) the intention to reuse the system in the future. The results add an important piece to understanding the effect of restrictive systems in that the users that are most susceptible to dominance by decision aids are the users most willing to adopt a restrictive system that reduces the effort they must put forth and in turn reduces the knowledge they accrue from using the system.     

Machine‐independent audit trail analysis—a tool for continuous audit assurance

This paper reports the results of a research project which examines the feasibility of developing a machine‐independent audit trail analyser (MIATA). MIATA is a knowledge‐based system which performs intelligent analysis of operating system audit trails. Such a system is proposed as a decision support tool for auditors when assessing the risk of unauthorized user activity in multi‐user computer systems. It is also relevant to the provision of a continuous assurance service to clients by internal and external auditors. Monitoring user activity in system audit trails manually is impractical because of the vast quantity of events recorded in those audit trails. However, if done manually, an expert security auditor would be needed to look for two main types of events—user activity rejected by the system's security settings (failed actions) and users behaving abnormally (e.g. unexpected changes in activity such as the purchasing clerk attempting to modify payroll data). A knowledge‐based system is suited to applications that require expertise to perform well‐de?ned, yet complex, monitoring activities (e.g. controlling nuclear reactors and detecting intrusions in computer systems). To permit machine‐independent intelligent audit trail analysis, an anomaly‐detection approach is adopted. Time series forecasting methods are used to develop and maintain the user pro?le database (knowledge base) that allows identi?cation of users with rejected behaviour as well as abnormal behaviour. The knowledge‐based system maintains this knowledge base and permits reporting on the potential intruder threats (summarized in Table I). The intelligence of the MIATA system is its ability to handle audit trails from any system, its knowledge base capturing rejected user activity and detecting anomalous activity, and its reporting capabilities focusing on known methods of intrusion. MIATA also updates user pro?les and forecasts of behaviour on a daily basis. As such, it also ‘learns’ from changes in user behaviour. The feasibility of generating machine‐independent audit trail records, and the applicability of the anomaly‐detection approach and time series forecasting methods, are demonstrated using three case studies. These results support the proposal that developing a machine‐independent audit trail analyser is feasible. Such a system will be an invaluable aid to an auditor in detecting potential computer intrusions and monitoring user activity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can knowledge based systems be designed to counteract deskilling effects?

Recent calls in the information systems research community argue that we know intelligent systems deskill users, and future research should focus on how to design systems that do not deskill, rather than continue to examine whether the phenomenon occurs. This should be a wakeup call for public accounting firms focused on implementing restrictive audit support systems, which leads to de-skilling of novice accounting professionals. Our research focuses on redesigning knowledge-based systems to facilitate expertise development and counteract the de-skilling effects that result from use of such systems. Specifically, we manipulate the design of the system interface by providing information cues in a screen format consistent with expert knowledge representations and manipulate automatic provision versus voluntary use of explanations for users during task completion. Results show that after using the knowledge-based system to complete a series of reenacted client engagements over a three-day period, both the interface design manipulation and automatic provision of explanations had a positive effect on novice accounting professionals’ development of expert-like knowledge structures. The results of the study have important implications for the development of knowledge-based systems intended to support accounting professionals’ (and other knowledge workers’) expertise development processes.     

Activity-based costing user satisfaction and type of system: A research note

This paper examines user perceptions of Activity-based costing (ABC) performance for three different types of system in a major information and communication provider in South East Asia. Few prior ABC studies have considered the effect of system type on ABC performance. The study draws on a survey of 54 developers and 181 users of 16 different ABC systems within the organisation to produce five performance constructs (cost accuracy, cost-benefit trade-off, ABC impact, information use, and decision action). The results show that both the development inputs and user performance perceptions varied with the type of system (embedded, stand-alone, ad-hoc). While embedded systems enjoyed far stronger inputs (e.g. top management support, rewards and recognition, task significance) and greater development team cohesion than stand-alone systems, they were perceived by users to perform significantly less well. These findings suggest that system type is an important factor in assessing ABC performance.     

Combining Expert Systems and Hypertext: Opportunities and Obstacles

Hypertext discussions are occurring more frequently at expert systems conferences. Hypertext is not an expert system language or expert system shell, but instead it is simultaneously a method of storing and retrieving data. The growing interest in hypertext in the expert system domain is because the combination of hypertext capabilities and expert systems creates a compelling synergistic relationship (Oren, 1987). During a panel discussion at the Second International Symposium on Expert Systems in Business, Finance and Accounting, Bill Swartout compared traditional expert systems to hypertext by saying that the knowledge base (e.g. the production rules) of an expert system can be thought of as formal knowledge and hypertext can be thought of as informal knowledge. This article will demonstrate how this informal knowledge can add power to traditional expert systems by increasing the flexibility of the explanation facilities and thereby the appeal of the system to a broader range of users. The article also will discuss how expert systems can improve the functionality of hypertext systems by adding intelligence to traditional hypertext systems. This article is divided into three sections. The first describes basic hypertext concepts. The second section shows how hypertext can enhance expert systems and, conversely, how expert systems can enhance hypertext systems. The final section discusses some potential problems and concerns that must be considered when designing a hypertext system.     

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED,TAXES DRIVE THE JANUARY EFFECT

The multitude of explanations for the January effect leaves the reader confused about its primary cause(s): is it tax‐loss selling, window dressing, information, bid‐ask bounce, or a combination of these causes? The confusion arises, in part, because evidence has generally been presented in support of a particular hypothesis though the same evidence may be consistent with another hypothesis. Furthermore, prior work does not adequately control for the bid‐ask bounce. In this article we try to disentangle different explanations of the January effect and identify its primary cause. We find that tax‐related selling is the most important cause, overshadowing other explanations.     

Anticipating transitions beyond the current mobility regimes: How acceptability matters

Today's car-based transportation systems require a transition toward sustainability. This is particularly the case in suburban areas, where the costs for introducing a new transportation system are high due to the low population density. At the same time the negative externalities of the current mobility regime – such as health costs and congestions – are increasing rapidly. Based on expert interviews with car manufacturers, transportation authorities, environmental groups, and scientists we identify two visionary characteristics of future, more sustainable transportation systems: automated driving and sharing. Using these two characteristics, we apply the scenario-axes technique to develop four mobility scenarios for a suburban context that range from business-as-usual to a radical and more sustainable one. In an evaluation with ten criteria that measure a scenario's performance from a user perspective, the radical scenario performs worst since it does not meet current individualistic user requirements. Our findings suggest that lock-ins of users’ expectations act as barriers for the diffusion of novel transportation systems. These barriers cannot be overcome by technological innovations and regulation alone. Hence, we call for innovative arenas, wherein technology and user acceptability could co-evolve.     

Mutual Fund Manager Forecasting Behavior

I examine publicly released annual earnings forecasts issued in conjunction with stock recommendations by mutual fund managers of actively managed open-end mutual funds. I find that mutual fund manager annual earnings forecasts systematically overestimate the earnings number later disclosed at the annual earnings announcement. In further analyses, I attempt to distinguish between two explanations for this forecast bias: an untruthful reporting bias (market manipulation) and a truthful cognitive bias (optimism). These explanations generate different predictions about the timing of changes in fundholdings of forecasted securities between the forecast release and annual earnings announcement dates. I interpret my findings as more consistent with an optimism explanation for mutual fund manager annual forecast bias and less consistent with a market manipulation explanation for this bias. I am, however, unable to eliminate an unobservable selection bias either in the decision of the mutual fund manager to report a forecast publicly or in the media's decision to publish that forecast as an explanation for my finding that mutual fund manager forecasts are biased.     

Do Managers Use Meeting Analyst Forecasts to Signal Private Information? Evidence from Patent Citations

This study examines whether firms manage earnings to meet analyst forecasts to signal superior future performance. Prior research finds that firms use earnings management to just meet analyst forecasts and that these firms have a positive association with future performance (Bartov et al., 2002). There are two potential explanations for the positive association – signaling and attaining benefits that allow for better future performance (i.e., the real benefits explanation). Prior studies cannot provide evidence of signaling because they do not control for the real benefits explanation. Our research design enables us to control for the real benefits explanation because we can identify potential signaling firms within the sample of firms that just meet analyst forecasts. We use a unique database from the National Bureau of Economic Research to construct a proxy for the manager's belief about future firm value due to patents. We find that firms with more patent citations are more likely to just meet the analyst forecast and manage earnings to achieve this goal. We also find firms that just meet analyst forecasts with more patent citations have significantly better performance than firms with fewer patent citations, which is consistent with signaling and not the real benefits explanation.     

R&D Shocks and News Shocks

Most of the theoretical work in the news shock literature abstracts away from structural explanations, assuming instead that news is a pure signal giving agents advance notice that aggregate technology will undergo exogenous change at some future point. This paper proposes that a surprise improvement in sector‐specific productivity in the research and development sector can be seen as news about aggregate productivity. I not only offer a deeper explanation for the news but also show that the model performs modestly better in matching empirical facts than a standard, one‐sector neoclassical growth model augmented with exogenous news shocks does.     

Development and validation of an improved DeLone-McLean IS success model - application to the evaluation of a tax administration ERP

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is critical to an organization’s success. However, the factors that contribute to the success and usage of these ERP systems have received little attention. This study developed and validation of an improved DeLone-McLean IS success model. Additionally, we examined the factors which influence ERP system usage, employee satisfaction, information quality, service quality, and system quality, as well as the factors that influence the system’s overall success. The proposed model is based on a mixed-methods case study (MM-CS). The results show that the proposed model significantly measures the success of an ERP system. The organizational climate, the information quality, the system quality, and the service quality all have an impact on the usage of an ERP system. The proposed model also shows that the use of an ERP system, training and learning, and the three information (IS) quality constructs are all significant predictors of user satisfaction. The results also indicate that gender and years of ICT use on the path of ERP users have a moderating effect on the relationship between teamwork & support and use.     

Dynamic web server construction on the intranet using a change management framework

As organizations increasingly emphasize effective collaborative working through networked systems, the World Wide Web (WWW) server and associated intranet technologies are gaining wider acceptance as a new enterprisewide information systems paradigm. In an intranet collaborative working environment, data used in the web server are usually modified more frequently than are those used in a traditional Internet web server. Thus, to support synchronous collaboration without causing any inconsistency among multiple concurrent users, the intranet web server must provide users with synchronized and consistent views of shared data. However, current web technologies have limitations in supporting this, largely because the existing Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) is unidirectional and does not allow web servers to send messages to their web browsers without first receiving requests from them. This paper proposes a web-based change management framework that can overcome such limitations and support synchronous collaboration in an intranet computing environment. The web-based change management framework facilitates management of dependency relationships between shared data in the web server and dependent user views in the client web browser and allows the web server to actively propagate changing details of the shared objects to all users referencing them. On the basis of the change management framework, we propose a dynamic web server that can support synchronous collaboration in various intranet-based collaborative systems including concurrent engineering design systems and electronic approval systems. The prototype system of the dynamic web server is developed on a commercial Object-oriented Database Management System (ODBMS) called OBJECTSTORE using the C++ programming language. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

End-user access to multiple sources: incorporating knowledge discovery into knowledge management

The End-User Access to Multiple Sources—Eams system—integrates given information sources into a knowledge management system. It relates the world of documents with the database world using an ontology. The focus of developing the Eams system is on the acquisition and maintenance of knowledge. Hence, in both worlds, machine learning is applied. In the document world, a learning search engine adapts to user behaviour by analysing the click-through-data. This eases the personalization of selecting appropriate documents for users and does not require further maintenance. In the database world, knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) bridges the gap between the fine granularity of relational databases and the actual information needs of users. KDD extracts knowledge from data and, therefore, allows the knowledge management system to make good use of already existing company data—without further acquisition or maintenance. A graphical user interface provides users with a uniform access to document collections on the Internet (Intranet) as well as to relational databases. Since the ontology generates the items in the user interface, a change in the ontology automatically changes the user interface without further efforts. The Eams system has been applied to customer relationship management in the insurance domain. Questions to be answered by the system concern customer acquisition (e.g. direct marketing), customer up- and cross-selling (e.g. which products sell well together), and customer retention (here, which customers are likely to leave the insurance company or ask for a return of a capital life insurance). Documents about other insurance companies and demographic data published on the Internet contribute to the answers, as do the results of data analysis of the company's contracts. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

再售期权、货币幻觉与商品住宅价格泡沫

再售期权和货币幻觉两个因素分别从投资者对未来现金流分布的信念差异和对贴现率估计偏差的角度解释房地产价格泡沫的形成和膨胀。本文以上海商品住宅市场为例,运用动态剩余价值模型从租金房价比角度测度上海房价泡沫水平,并检验再售期权和货币幻觉对上海房价泡沫的解释作用。经验分析发现,上海商品住宅市场存在再售期权和货币幻觉效应,其中货币幻觉效应对房价泡沫影响具有不对称性但解释作用更强,建议应重点关注高通胀和实际负利率对房价泡沫的影响。     

Firm life expectancy and the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect

I argue that the reason the book-to-market effect is stronger in small stocks is because smaller stocks generally have shorter life expectancy and therefore shorter equity duration. I build a model in which the book-to-market effect is stronger in stocks with shorter life expectancy. Empirically, I use delisting probability as my proxy for life expectancy. The data support my model's central prediction and its additional implications for stock return and variance. My results provide a rational explanation for the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect, evidence previously taken as support for behavioral explanations.     

Creating breakthroughs at 3M

Most senior managers want their product development teams to create break-throughs--new products that will allow their companies to grow rapidly and maintain high margins. But more often they get incremental improvements to existing products. That's partly because companies must compete in the short term. Searching for breakthroughs is expensive and time consuming; line extensions can help the bottom line immediately. In addition, developers simply don't know how to achieve breakthroughs, and there is usually no system in place to guide them. By the mid-1990s, the lack of such a system was a problem even for an innovative company like 3M. Then a project team in 3M's Medical-Surgical Markets Division became acquainted with a method for developing breakthrough products: the lead user process. The process is based on the fact that many commercially important products are initially thought of and even prototyped by "lead users"--companies, organizations, or individuals that are well ahead of market trends. Their needs are so far beyond those of the average user that lead users create innovations on their own that may later contribute to commercially attractive breakthroughs. The lead user process transforms the job of inventing breakthroughs into a systematic task of identifying lead users and learning from them. The authors explain the process and how the 3M project team successfully navigated through it. In the end, the team proposed three major new product lines and a change in the division's strategy that has led to the development of breakthrough products. And now several more divisions are using the process to break away from incrementalism.     

MIND YOUR ACCRUALS: PERCEIVED USEFULNESS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION IN THE AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC SECTOR UNDER DIFFERENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS

This study examines the usefulness of three accounting systems (cash, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) accrual, and Government Finance Statistics (GFS) accrual) for public sector decision‐making. From a survey of internal users, external users, and preparers in Australia, we find that GAAP accrual information is perceived to be relatively more useful and understandable than the other two systems for most decisions examined. The relatively higher ratings for GAAP accrual information differ from earlier studies and may reflect an experience or familiarity effect whereby perceptions of usefulness are enhanced because respondents have become more used to the system. This effect might also explain the lower ratings for GFS accrual.     

Automated explanation of financial data

We describe a methodology for explanation generation in financial knowledge-based systems. This offers the possibility to generate explanations and diagnostics automatically to support business decision tasks. The central goal is the identification of specific knowledge structures and reasoning methods required to construct computerized explanations from financial data and models. A multistep look-ahead algorithm is proposed that deals with so-called cancelling-out effects, which are a common phenomenon in financial data sets. Our method is an extension of the traditional variance decomposition in accounting. The method was tested on a case-study conducted for Statistics Netherlands involving the comparison of financial figures of firms in the Dutch retail branch. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.