出口退税对林产品贸易的影响研究

论述了林产品出口退税政策调整的动因,退税政策调整对林产品质量与国民经济增长的影响,并通过建立模型推行8种林产品实证分析。结果表明:自1996～2005年林产品出口退税额年均增长12.6%计算,每年带动林产品贸易出口额增长3.73%;出口退税对林产品出口增长的贡献率为24.2%。     

COINTEGRATION,AND CAUSALITY: EXPLORING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL AND PRODUCTIVITY

This study investigates the causal relationships between total factor productivity (TFP) and explanatory variables, such as public sector agricultural extension, farmer education, private sector patents and the weather. Cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied to the UK data which were used by Hallam (1990). Unlike Hallam, we find that there is a relationship between research spending and productivity. The same methodology is applied to new data for ten EC countries and the USA. In all cases there is evidence of a long run relationship between TFP and. Pooling the data for the ten EC countries and the USA, and then testing for causality shows that expenditures are Granger prior to TFP and that TFP is also Granger prior to expenditures. This result agrees with Pardey and Craig's (1989) US study.     

Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach

This paper quantifies the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in developing countries. We estimate the relationship between GDP and agricultural and non‐agricultural exports for 42 countries using panel cointegration methods. Results show that a long‐run relationship exists, the agricultural export elasticity of GDP is 0.07 whereas that of non‐agricultural exports is 0.13, and total exports Granger‐cause GDP, which supports the export‐led growth hypothesis. Structural differences exist in the relationship by broad income group. Balanced export‐promotion polices are implied for the poorest countries, but, for those with higher incomes, higher economic growth is achieved from non‐agricultural exports.     

An Analysis of the Linkage Between Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Summary

This article examines the relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth. Pakistan is used as a case study due to its large amounts of agricultural exports which have competed with industry for government support. This study estimates three simultaneous equations representing GDP, agricultural exports, and total imports while incorporating factors such as income remittances from abroad, investment, and manufactured exports as independent variables. The timing of this information is critical as Pakistan's policy makers now face major agricultural reforms in their quest for development. The estimation results show that a favorable relationship exists between agricultural exports and growth in GDP.     

Sources of agricultural productivity growth and stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines sources of agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Growth in the stock of traditional inputs (land, labor, livestock) remains the dominant source of output growth. Growth in modern input use was of secondary importance, but still accounted for a 0.2-0.4% annual growth rate in three of four sub-regions. Econometric results support earlier studies that suggest that land abundance may be a constraint on land productivity growth. Growth in agricultural exports and historic caloric availability had positive impacts on productivity. These latter results suggest that positive feedback effects exist between export performance and food security on one hand and agricultural productivity on the other.     

家具产业集聚外部驱动因素的实证研究——来自1988～2008数据的PCA与Granger检验分析

通过分析获取了产业集聚外部动因有效的变量,采集1988～2008年家具产业两位数的相关数据,研究家具产业基尼系数、家具产业国内消费量、出口量、全国固定投资额、居民消费水平5个变量的关系,以家具产业基尼系数为被解释变量建立PCA模型,并提取方差进行回归分析,并对变量间进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。结论表明投资与家具产业集聚是双向因果的关系,国内家具消费与家具产业集聚是弱的双向因果关系,家具出口则是单向因果关系。揭示出家具产业长期以来的低附加值生产方式,在没有或外部需求出现较强波动时,可能会造成多米诺骨牌效应,从而加快产业集聚反向替代的进程。     

Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

2035年中国人粮关系情景分析

该文以2035年作为典型年份,研究根据耕地、复种、粮作比例、播面单产、人均消费需求等不同条件组合,讨论不同情景下中国分县的粮食产量和人口承载力,向国家层面汇总,对2035年中国人粮关系的未来前景进行系统分析,探讨不同情景下中国人口-土地-粮食的互动关系,为中国人粮关系协调发展提供决策依据。研究结果表明:在不同耕地、复种指数、粮作比例和播面单产组合下,我国2035年人口承载力在8.79亿人和16.98亿人之间,不同的生产经营和消费方式对中国是否能实现人、粮平衡具有较大的作用。     

AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH EXPENDITURES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE

This note comments on the econometric analysis of the dynamic relationship between agricultural research expenditures and agricultural productivity change. The validity of the Almon restrictions, particularly endpoint restrictions, commonly imposed on the distributed lag is questioned. It is suggested that models incorporating such restrictions may lead to biased estimates of the effects of research spending. More fundamentally, doubts are raised as to whether any meaningful relationship between research spending and productivity change can be established from the available data.     

基于二元边际和贸易关系的中国农产品出口动态研究

[目的]文章基于动态的视角,测度中国农产品出口的贸易关系和二元边际变化,对农产品出口整体情况以及出口源地维度和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行研究。[方法]基于2000—2016年中国海关贸易库数据,测算出口贸易关系、贸易二元边际和区位基尼系数,对农产品出口动态的整体情况及其在出口源地和出口目的国维度的时空分布进行描述,并进行聚类分析。[结果]（1）从出口动态整体情况看,农产品出口增长迅速,集约边际占据主导,贸易关系“大进大出”。（2）从时空演化格局看,在出口源地维度,东部省份出口优势明显,空间格局高度集中,近年来集聚程度有所下降。（3）在出口目的国维度,东亚、东南亚、北美是主要的出口目的地和出口扩展地,集聚水平长期下降,原因是出口格局由“一超”变“多强”且中国出口到了更多的国家。（4）当同时考虑两个维度时,中国城市的出口扩展结构高度相似,绝大多数城市的扩展边际的贸易在全球分布相对均匀,东亚和东南亚为主要的出口扩展市场。[结论]为了保障农产品出口的稳定增长,既要努力维护贸易关系、实现集约边际增长,也要积极扩展新贸易联系;为了优化农产品出口格局,要推进中西部地区因地制宜挖掘特色农产品、开拓新...     

The public R&D and productivity growth in Australia's broadacre agriculture: is there a link?

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships between research and development (R&D) expenditure and productivity growth in Australian broadacre agriculture using aggregate time series data for the period 1953 to 2009. The results show a cointegrating relationship between R&D and productivity growth and a unidirectional causality from R&D to TFP (total factor productivity) growth in Australian broadacre agriculture. Using the dynamic properties of the model, data from beyond the sample period are analysed by employing the variance decomposition and the impulse response function. The findings reveal that R&D can be readily linked to the variation in productivity growth beyond the sample period. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicate that a significant out‐of‐sample relationship exists between public R&D and productivity in broadacre agriculture.     

Spillovers from high-value agriculture for exports on land use in developing countries: evidence from Madagascar

High-value agriculture for exports is increasingly important in developing countries. In a case study of contract farming for exports of vegetables from Madagascar, strong spillover effects of these trade opportunities on land use are found to exist. Using a matched plot sampling design, the productivity of rice—the main domestically consumed staple—is shown to be two-thirds higher on fields that were contracted during the off-season for the production of vegetables. This increase in yields is linked to an increase of soil fertility due to the application of fertilizer and compost, which farmers did not use prior to the contracts. Although agricultural output goes up significantly, labor productivity stays the same, suggesting that there is greater labor absorption on existing land and the diffusion of this type of technology at a larger scale throughout Madagascar would be expected to substantially decrease incentives to deforest by increasing wages and to boost productivity of existing lands relative to newly deforested ones.     

Efficiency in agricultural production: the case of peasant farmers in eastern Paraguay

This paper contributes to the productivity literature in developing country agriculture by quantifying the level of efficiency for a sample of peasant farmers from Eastern Paraguay. A stochastic efficiency decomposition methodology is used to derive technical, allocative and economic efficiency measures separately for cotton and cassava. An average economic efficiency of 40.1% for cotton and of 52.3% for cassava is found, which suggests considerable room for productivity gains for the farms in the sample through better use of available resources given the state of technology. Gains in output through productivity growth have become increasingly important to Paraguay as the opportunities to bring additional virgin lands into cultivation have significantly diminished in recent years. No clear strategy to improve farm productivity could be gleaned from an examination of the relationship between efficiency and various socioeconomic variables. One possible explanation for this finding is the existence of a stage of development threshold below which there is no consistent relationship between socioeconomic variables and productivity. If this is the case, then our results suggest that this sample of Paraguayan peasants are yet to reach such a threshold. Hence, improvements in educational and extension services, for example, would be needed to go beyond this threshold. Once this is accomplished, additional productivity gains would be obtained by further investments in human capital and related factors.     

景观异质性视角下生物多样性对农田生产力的影响研究进展与启示

目的 通过总结景观异质性的相关文献,明确现阶段景观异质性研究中生物多样性对农田生产力影响的趋势和方向,为后续研究与相关政策制定提供理论支持和参考依据。方法 文章对国内外不同景观异质性下对生物多样性和农田生产力的影响情况进行分析,梳理生物多样性对农田生产力的影响方式,了解影响农田景观异质性大小的因素和原理,系统总结了三者之间存在的级联关系,提出了农田可持续发展的实践建议。结果 （1）景观空间异质性对生物多样性—农田生产力关系具有显著的积极影响,但存在一定的阈值,超过该值则会产生负面影响;（2）在空间异质性视角下,农田中生物多样性与生产力之间存在广泛的正相关关系,农田面积作为一项操作简便且影响较大的农田景观指标,具有巨大的潜力;（3）景观的时间异质性和功能异质性与农田生物多样性—生产力关系同样具有积极的协同作用,在未来的研究中应当占有一席之地。结论 从景观异质性的视角出发,农田生物多样性对生产力有着广泛的积极影响,同时存在一个阈值使得二者关系达到最大值,通过采取保护小斑块农田等方法实现生态和生产的“双赢”,实现高质量的农业可持续健康发展。     

Subsidies and agricultural productivity in the EU

This paper investigates the relationship between EU agricultural subsidies and agricultural labor productivity growth by estimating a conditional convergence growth model. We use more representative subsidy indicators and a wider coverage (panel data from 213 EU regions over the period 2004–2014) than have been used before. We find that, on average, EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies increase agricultural labor productivity growth, but this aggregate effect hides important heterogeneity of effects of different types of subsidies. The positive effect on productivity comes from decoupled subsidies, that is, Pillar I decoupled payments and some Pillar II payments. Coupled Pillar I subsidies have the opposite effect: they slow down productivity growth.     

What comes first,agricultural growth or democracy?

Today, the international community faces two major development challenges: how to ignite growth and how to establish democracy. Economic research has identified two plausible hypotheses regarding this association. The first hypothesis emphasizes the need to start with democracy and institutions that secure property rights. The second hypothesis emphasizes the need to start with physical and human capital accumulation. In this article, we discuss some of the econometric evidence on the relationship between institutions, human capital, and agricultural productivity growth across developed and developing countries with the objective of finding support for one or the other hypothesis. We find that most variables used in the literature to capture the effect of institutions are not independent of the process of growth. While no evidence of causation from political institutions to agricultural productivity growth is found, human capital accumulation emerges as an important source of growth.     

我国农业机械总动力对农产品出口的动态效应——基于VAR模型的分析

在1981—2013年相关经济数据的基础上,运用向量回归(VAR)模型方法,从实证角度分析了我国农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间的动态关系。各项检验结果表明,我国农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间存在双向因果关系,适合建立向量回归模型。采用VAR模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分析方法,对农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间的动态响应关系进行计量研究,结果表明我国农业机械总动力对我国农产品出口具有长期的正影响。     

基于碳足迹的设施蔬菜生产环境效率及其分解

[目的]将碳排放纳入生产效率框架来评价设施蔬菜生产效率与资源环境之间的协调关系,对于蔬菜生产的可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]从碳足迹视角对设施蔬菜生产的环境效率进行评价分析。基于2011—2016年21个设施蔬菜生产省(区)的面板数据,采用SBM模型和Malmquist生产率指数,对主产区蔬菜生产环境效率进行测算和分解。在此基础上,构建环境效率—生产率矩阵对地区低碳化发展潜力进行了评价。[结果]不同蔬菜主产区环境效率存在差异,整体呈现为先升后降的倒U型变动趋势;设施蔬菜生产环境效率损失主要来源于种子、机械排灌等投入冗余以及碳排放过量;蔬菜生产中,技术"退步"是导致环境全要素生产率下降的主要原因,技术效率的提高促进了环境全要素生产率的增长,但未能抵消因技术进步"恶化"所带来的负效应。[结论]第一、二主产区设施蔬菜低碳化转型速度减缓,其他产区低碳化发展处于低迷状态,因此注重低碳生产技术的创新,加强技术推广,发挥技术进步和技术效率提升的协同效应,对加快建设资源节约和环境友好型农业至关重要。     

The pass-through of exchange rate changes to the prices of Australian exports of dairy and livestock products

Agricultural exports are usually assumed to operate in perfectly competitive international markets, but many are subject to non-tariff barriers to trade that can affect the degree of pass-through of exchange rate changes to foreign currency prices. The present study uses multivariate cointegration techniques to examine the effects of exchange rate changes on the prices of Australian exports of milk products, cheese, beef, sheepmeat, and hides and skins. The results indicate that Australian dairy exports operate in competitive markets in which pass-through is complete, but there is no stable long-run relationship between exchange rates and prices for any of the other livestock products.