USING INPUT DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FUNCTION MODELS TO ASSESS THE NET BENEFITS OF DAIRY HERD IMPROVEMENT

Two methods of evaluating (the net social benefits of the dairy herd-improvement scheme operated by the New South Wales Department of Agriculture are described. The first involves derivation of 'an input demand' function for the herd-recording aspect of the scheme and use of this function to estimate the economic surplus (net of both private and public costs) provided by the service. The second approach involves deriving a production function for milk from which it is possible to estimate the contribution herd-recording and artificial breeding have made to increasing milk yields per cow. Social benefits are shown to have been less than social costs for herd-recording, however dairy farmers have made net private gains. The herd-recording scheme has contained a regressive subsidy element. The production function approach show that artificial breeding and herd-recording were profitable complements in production.     

REGIONAL CONSUMER EXPENDITURE STUDIES USING NATIONAL FOOD SURVEY DATA

Attention has been drawn in N.F.S. reports to the considerable regional variation in the consumption of individual foods. In this paper, the relevant theory and methodology of food expenditure analysis is briefly surveyed and an attempt is made to point out some of the gaps in the currnt state of knowledge. Results of preliminary analysis of regional variations in expenditure on apples are reported and methodological and statistical problems discussed. Finally, suggestions are made as to how some of the problems may be over-come and the lines along which future studies may proceed.     

THE ANALYSIS OF NET FARM INCOME: AN EXAMINATION OF FARM MANAGEMENT SURVEY DATA

The practical significance of the conventional “net farm income” is elusive. It would be useful to have an accepted method of dividing “management and investment income” into its recognised Components—managerial salary and return on tenant's capital. One is a residual if the other can be calculated, and both alternatives are considered. An empirical formula is suggested for estimating the managerial salary which may be imputed to the farmer, taking account of his total turnover, his labour bill and his net farm income. This formula is then applied to Farm Management Survey data, for individual farms and for groups of average, high and low performance (output per £ input). The method may permit closer analysis of relative profitability.     

AN APPLICATION AND EXTENSION OF THE MARKOV CHAIN MODEL TO CEREAL PRODUCTION

Given aggregate time-series data, conventional Markov Chain estimation of the stationary transition probabilities is performed for a model of the cereal market in Great Britain. The possibility of non-stationary probabilities is examined in the light of these initial results, and the basic model developed to allow exogenous variables to enter via their influence on these parameters. The evidence from the paper would appear to suggest that, at least in the case considered, time-varying transition probabilities are a most attractive alternative.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF A PILOT SURVEY OF SALT-AFFECTED DAIRY FARMS

A small stratified sample was drawn from irrigated dairy farms judged to exhibit two degrees (high and low) of salting in the soil. Cobb-Douglas production functions were fitted to time series and cross sectional data for each stratum. The results support the conclusion that the data from the two strata can be pooled and that the quality of the soil in this area can be modelled using an analysis of covariance approach. A preliminary confidence interval for the geometric mean of the ratio of the shadow price of water to the price of butterfat for farms in the sample was also calculated. This interval supports the hypothesis that rationed irrigation water is worth more to these farms than the price paid.     

ESTIMATING LINEAR PRODUCTION COEFFICIENTS FROM FARM BUSINESS SURVEY DATA: A NOTE

This paper presents the results of three approaches to estimating linear production coefficients from sample farm data by apportioning total input usage between individual enterprises. It is suggested that the use of Bayesian priors to conduct constrained estimation is preferable to the use of Inequality Restricted Least Squares.     

PRODUCTION RISK AND INPUT USE: PASTORAL ZONE OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Few attempts have been made to estimate production functions for the Australian grazing industries. The question of the nature of the effect of input levels on production risk has been broached even more rarely. Previous investigators had to employ models and methods of estimation which embody highly restrictive implicit assumptions about the nature of risk effects. A typical restrictive feature has been the implication that increasing input intensity leads to increasing risk. In this paper, a much less restrictive model and corresponding estimation techniques are brought to bear on individual farm data for 38 properties with 10 continuous years of production records. Perhaps not surprisingly, it is found that some inputs (especially those capital inputs which might normally be thought of as increasing the safety of production) tend to reduce risk.     

全国农业生态指数遥感监测评价方法研究

该研究借助遥感与GIS技术,考虑影响农业生态系统的关键因素,选取植被指数、地表温度、降水距平以及自然灾害等主要指标,建立了我国农业生态评价的指标体系。根据研究所提出的指标体系以及评价方法,开展了2006年3月上旬到10月上旬的全国农业生态综合评价,并详细分析了每个月我国各地区的生态状况,结果表明我国2006年农业生态总体状况比较好,只有个别地区比较差。该研究所提出的基于遥感与GIS的农业生态指数评价方法,可以及时有效地获取全国范围内农业生态系统状况,而且可以考虑长期业务化运行,它将能为全面掌握我国农业生产状况,保障我国农业平稳发展有非常重要的意义。     

A FARM GROWTH MODEL FOR POLICY ANALYSIS IN AN EXTENSIVE PASTORAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM

The development of a simulation model of an extensive pastoral farming system to assist analysts in their assessment of government policy measures is described. The model was designed to simulate, over a number of years, the physical and financial operation of a sheep and beef production system typically found in the North Island hill country of New Zealand. By manipulating model parameters and data related to prices, costs, taxation and credit, a range of policies can be represented and their effects simulated. The model is used to undertake an ex post analysis of the farm-level impact of the supplementary minimum price scheme in New Zealand and to project farm performance following the abolition of the scheme. Consideration is given to the use of the model to represent sheep and beef production systems elsewhere.     

新疆棉花生产要素成本收益及规模报酬变动趋势研究基于465户农户问卷调查数据

目的 由于生产要素的价格稳步攀升,新疆棉花生产成本过高,加上新疆棉花销售回归市场,价格不稳定,导致棉花生产风险增大,棉农种棉积极性降低。文章通过对新疆棉花成本收益及规模报酬变动趋势的研究,为棉农生产决策和政府政策提供参考。方法 在对新疆棉农问卷调查的基础上,研究棉花种植规模变动下生产要素的规模报酬。在二次函数的基础上寻找生产要素投入成本较低,收益最大的植棉规模,运用多元线性回归模型分析棉花生产要素投入对植棉成本的影响,以及不同植棉规模下生产要素对棉花产量增加的贡献程度。结果 新疆农户棉花生产的单位面积成本和收益随着户均种植规模的变化呈二次曲线变化;单位面积成本随着种植规模扩大,先下降,超过一定规模后上升,成本最低植棉规模为3.56hm²;单位面积收益随着种植规模扩大,先增加,超过一定规模后下降,收益最高的植棉规模为4.67~5.33hm²。研究发现,户均种植规模在2.5~4.5hm²时,土地费用、机械作业费、水电费、雇工费用投入对棉花产量的贡献较大,规模在7~10hm²时,化肥投入对棉花产量的贡献较大;农药、地膜、滴灌带等物质投入未体现规模趋势。结论 新疆农户棉花生产的成本和收益随着种植规模不同而变化的趋势符合规模经济原理,存在最优种植规模;在不同种植规模下,各种要素投入对新疆农户棉花产量的影响差异明显。因此,要引导棉农合理投入生产要素,降低成本,增加收益。     

HERD SIZE AND UNIT COSTS OF PRODUCTION IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR

This paper examines the relationship between herd size and unit costs of production in the England and Wales dairy sector. Following the two-stage estimation procedure of Dawson & Hubbard (1987), longrun average cost (LAC) functions are estimated from cross-section data for five separate years between 1976/7 and 1986/7. Results show that the LAC curves are U-shaped but highly skewed, implying that considerable economies of size are present at low output levels but diseconomies at larger levels are much less marked. Over time, technological change in particular has been shifting the LAC curves downward and to the right and away from the sector's long-run equilibrium. The differential shift of cost curves, depending on the size of production, implies that technological change has been biased in favour of larger herds.     

STRUCTURAL PROJECTIONS OF THE SCOTTISH DAIRY INDUSTRY USING MICRO AND MACRO MARKOV TRANSITION MATRICES

This article analyses changes in the size-structure of the dairy industry in the SMMB area. It compares the performance of projections based on easily available, aggregate data using well-known computer routines with projections made from detailed, infrequently collected, farm-level data. The paper suggests that although yields are continuing to rise this may no longer be sufficient to compensate for the loss of producers, so that there may be a fall in total milk output in the 1980s.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PEASANT FARM PRODUCTION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY*

In this paper the impact of cotton on a traditional food crop system in a semi-arid area of Kenya is analysed using a linear programming model and sensitivity analysis. Alternative criteria, maximax, maximin, and a standard average return maximand, are used in turn. The solutions are all evaluated as ‘best year’, ‘worst year’, and average values. This gives a range of results that cakes account of the uncertainty in the farming situation. Several policy conclusions follow from the analysis. It is argued that the approach used is more realistic than an approach in which a single maximand is used, and that the simplicity of the approach brings it within reach of many involved in farm production analysis.     

山东省粮食生产波动及主要投入要素效应的实证分析——基于17地市的面板数据

山东省17市粮食总产和单产从2002~2012年均呈增加趋势,其中,德州粮食产量和增产幅度最大,菏泽总产位居第二,而单产较低。菏泽、临沂、潍坊、聊城等产粮大市粮食单产仍有很大提升潜力。采用改进的多要素投入柯布-道格拉斯生产函数对山东省17个地市2002~2012年粮食总产量及影响其粮食生产三大投入要素(粮食种植面积、化肥施用总量、农业机械总动力)的面板数据进行的计量分析表明,粮食种植面积、化肥施用总量、农业机械总动力与山东粮食总产量均呈正向相关关系,且粮食播种面积、化肥施用总量和农业机械总动力每增加1个百分点,粮食产量分别增长1.097个百分点、0.258个百分点和0.082个百分点,在山东省粮食生产要素投入贡献份额上,技术进步贡献率达52.9%。种植面积对粮食总产量的贡献率达34.27%,化肥施用总量对粮食总产量的贡献率为10.26%,而农机总动力的贡献率为2.57%。根据研究结论提出促进山东省粮食生产持续稳定发展的建议,即确保粮食种植面积、科学运筹施肥、研发推广适用型农业机械、增加粮食生产中的农业科技投入、完善农业科技创新体系。     

THE ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FRONTIERS: THE AUSTRALIAN LIVESTOCK/CEREALS COMPLEX1

An attempt is made to combine, empirically, the estimation of product transformation surfaces with the more conventional methods of linear supply analysis. This synthetic approach is used to fit simultaneously a system of six aggregate supply functions. The products covered account for more than 70 per cent of the gross value of Australian rural production.     

A SIMULATION MODEL OF AN ARID ZONE SHEEP PROPERTY

A simulation model of a pastoral property in the Western Division of New South Wales is described. Problems of applying the model to analysis of decision situations faced by graziers are reviewed, and the results of some early applications of the model are summarized.     

A MICRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF TEA PRODUCTION USING A SEPARABLE RESTRICTED PROFIT FUNCTION

To derive policy-relevant information, the translog form of a separable restricted profit function was used to model empirically estate tea production in Sri Lanka. Data consisted of 87 observations of prices and quantities for various inputs and outputs from 54 different Sri Lankan tea estates. In different tests, the estimated model respected generally the properties implied by underlying assumptions. Results indicated increasing economies of scale in the factory across the sample and optimal field size to be between 300 and 400 hectares. Amongst estimated short-term elasticities, the supply elasticity of made tea was found to be +0.94.