Bubbles,Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets

The Masters Hypothesis suggests that long‐only index funds were the main cause of a massive increase in commodity prices in 2007–2008 and 2011–2012. Central to the Masters Hypothesis are three basic tenets: (i) long‐only commodity index funds were directly responsible for driving futures prices higher; (ii) the deviations from fundamental value were economically very large; (iii) the impact was pervasive across commodity futures markets. There has been a great deal of empirical research on the Masters Hypothesis and commodity market bubbles. However, surprisingly few studies have found evidence that directly support the main tenets of the Masters Hypothesis. Some have attributed the lack of supporting evidence to the low‐power of time‐series tests, market efficiency issues and a lack of conditioning variables within models. In this paper, we address each of these issues using updated data and new empirical approaches. Still, price behaviour consistent with the Masters Hypothesis is surprisingly difficult to find in the data. This is an important finding given the on‐going policy debate and regulations proposed or being implemented to limit speculative positions in these markets.     

Commodity index investment and food prices: does the “Masters Hypothesis” explain recent price spikes?

The “Masters Hypothesis” is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure in recent years from commodity index investors created massive bubbles in food and energy prices. The purpose of this article is to review the evidence from recent studies that investigate the empirical relationship between index investment and price movements in agricultural futures markets. One line of research uses time‐series regression tests, such as Granger causality tests, to investigate the relationship between price movements and index positions. This research provides little evidence in support of the Masters Hypothesis in agricultural futures markets. A second line of research uses cross‐sectional regression tests and studies in this area provide very limited evidence in favor of the Masters Hypothesis for agricultural futures markets. A third line of research investigates whether there is a significant relationship between commodity index trading and the difference, or spread, between futures prices of different contract maturities on the same date. These studies report a range of results depending on the type of test. However, the bulk of the evidence indicates either no relationship or a negative relationship, which is once again inconsistent with the Masters Hypothesis. Overall, this growing body of literature fails to find compelling evidence that buying pressure from commodity index investment in recent years caused a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices. The Masters Hypothesis is simply not a valid characterization of reality.     

从三大效益角度分析伊春林权制度改革

任何改革都和效益分不开,改革就是为了追求最大效益的结果,国有林区林权制度改革本质上是一场效益改革。林业是一个特殊的行业,集三大效益即经济效益、生态效益和社会效益于一体,因而分析林权改革必须体现改革和效益的关系。对伊春林权改革的实施情况进行介绍,从经济、生态、社会角度来分析其改革的绩效,并从林权制度改革方案和相关配套制度两方面来分析林权改革存在的问题,针对这两方面问题提出完善林权改革的相应对策。     

Impacts of feed ingredient subsidy removal and concurrent trade liberalization in Tunisia

This article summarizes findings from a recent agricultural policy study examining the impacts of trade liberalization and removal of feed ingredient subsidies in Tunisia. A linear programming model was used to simulate private sector response to these policy changes. Increased feedgrain prices result from subsidy removal but effects are lessened if subsidy removal is coupled with trade liberalization. Induced long-term effects are improved efficiency in production of feedgrains, feedgrain substitutes, and livestock.     

大花萱草的组织培养

通过采取大花萱草5个品种的花茎、花瓣做为外植体,接种在相同的培养基上诱导分化、继代培养和生根培养。结果表明不同品种大花萱草存在很大的差异,而同一品种的不同部位其愈伤组织的诱导率也不相同,花茎优于花瓣。说明大花萱草的组织培养应用品种而异,针对不同的品取不同的培养基及适当的激素浓度。     

一品红的组织培养

通过采取一品红两个品种的花轴、茎尖和茎段作为外植体,接种在相同的培养基上诱导分化,继代培养和生根培养;培养结果,不同品种间存在着差异,而同一品种的茎尖最容易诱导产生幼苗,继代培养基以MS BA2.0 NAA0.2最有利于不定芽的产生。     

Towards an Integration of R & D and Marketing in Production Development

Abstract

In this paper, two approaches which are characteristic for Research & Development and Marketing departments are compared. First, R&D versus Marketing orientations are explained, then the major differences between them are presented. The integration of both approaches may improve competitive advantage of the food industry. Factors stimulating such integration are presented on the basis of data from real business circumstances. Innovation is regarded as a major source of competitive advantage of company. Therefore, integration in sensory methodology, that is commonly but differently used by R & D and Marketing departments, may contribute to the improvement of innovation practices and successful business performance. Finally, the role of consumer tests, oriented for marketing and product development, is illustrated.     

矮牵牛快繁技术研究

以重瓣矮牵牛的不同外植体为试验材料，诱导不定芽，产生再生植株；分别用叶片、茎段、茎尖和花蕾作为外植体进行培养，结果表明茎尖最易诱导产生幼苗，出苗率为90％；继代培养基以MS BA2 NAA0．1最有利于不定芽的产生，用于重瓣矮牵牛的快繁生产。     

Innovation and University‐Firm R&D Collaboration in the European Food and Drink Industry

In the National Innovation System (NIS), knowledge is produced and accumulated through interactive innovation processes that are embedded in a national context, which in turn may help determine innovation. This paper investigates how product and process innovations in the European food and drink industry are affected by: (i) NIS structure; (ii) NIS output in terms of scientific publications and the supply of graduates; (iii) NIS cohesion and coordination; (iv) NIS scientific impact and specialisation. The main source of data on innovation by firms is the EU‐EFIGE/Bruegel‐UniCredit dataset. This is supplemented by information from the International Handbook of Universities, Eurostat and a bibliometric analysis of academic research output. Our results suggest that large research institutions in the public sector may well be detrimental to interaction between university and industry and to process innovation. The indicators used for public research assessment are not necessarily the most appropriate proxies of local knowledge spillovers.     

绿色科技创新的运行本质研究

从绿色科技的创新和绿色的科技创新的辨证关系出发,论述了影响绿色科技创新的宏观因素和微观因素,阐述了以“绿色科技的创新”为标志的绿色科技创新的“发展向”模式、绿色科技创新的协调度和持续度,以及绿色科技创新的运作调控机制。     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
Green Revolution
Economics of Product Markets of Agriculture
Induced Innovation: Technology, Institutions, and Development     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
Financial Management in Agriculture by P. J. Barry; J. A. Hopkin and C. B. Baker
The Economics of Production by Bruce R. Beattie and C. Robert Taylor
Grain Marketing Economics Edited by Gail L. Crammer and Walter G. Heid, Jr.
Irrigated Forestry in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands: A Synthesis by F. B. Armitage
Agribusiness and the Small-Scale Farmer — A Dynamic Partnership for Development by Simon Williams and Ruth Karen Boulder
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Practices and Principles by Peter F. Drucker
Innovation The Attacker' s Advantage by Richard N. Foster     

农村公共产品供给机制变迁的历史困境及其突破

农村公共产品供给机制创新是深化农村改革和新农村建设的重要内容。城乡非均衡发展战略、农作制度改革的"单项突进"以及供需主体的双重缺失,导致了农村公共产品供给的历史困境,并日益成为困扰和阻碍农业和农村发展的瓶颈。本文在考察建国以来农村公共产品供给制度变迁轨迹的基础上,试图探寻新时期解决农村公共产品供需失调的制度安排,无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

浅谈我国土地开发整理的创新问题

土地开发整理作为补充耕地,实现耕地占补平衡,改善生产条件和生态环境,提高土地生产能力,优化利用结构,取得社会经济效益的重要措施。为了做好这一事业,必须按照党的十六大确立的全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标,探索和研究新世纪土地开发整理的理念创新,任务创新,机制创新,树立土地开发整理在国土资源管理、土地资源可持续发展中的地位和作用。     

Promoting GHG mitigation policies for agriculture and forestry: A case study in Guadeloupe,French West Indies

Climate change is now accepted as self-evident. It is time to find new production methods, set up new organizations and introduce new policies and new incentives to enable our economies and societies to face this issue. Innovation is required at all levels, from farming practices to government policy. Agricultural and forestry systems are strongly linked to their local environment and are often interdependent (economically, socially, etc.). This paper discusses how a landscape scale approach can help to mitigate climate change in forestry and agriculture. It describes the French Climagri^® approach, which is based on a GHG inventory and scenario analysis at sub-national scale in order to promote innovation. It discusses the strengths (transversal approach, GHG hot spot identification, impact of non-climate policies) and weaknesses (data collection, uncertainties, incentives) of such an approach based on a case study in Guadeloupe. This paper suggests ideas for tools to help in drawing up new efficient GHG policies and helps to explain landscape scale GHG inventories and data interpretation in a tropical context.     

Book Reviews

Book reviews in this article:
Ontario's Cattle Kingdom: Purebred Breeders and their World 1870–1920 M. Derry
The Biotechnology Revolution in Global Agriculture: Invention, Innovation and Investment in the Canola Sector Edited by Peter W. B. Phillips and George G. Khachatourians     

我国技术创新能力地区差异研究

创新是一个民族进步的灵魂，是一个国家兴旺发达的不竭动力。结合影响技术创新的因素，构建了评价指标体系。采用因子分析法，找出了影响我国技术创新能力的主要因子。建立技术创新能力计价模型，比较了我国省区之间技术创新能力的差异；提出了建议。     

基本农田保护机制的创新问题探讨

结合近几年基本农田保护规划实施的情况,从保护指导思想、保护管理体系、保护手段、布局调整、投入机制与农民参与等方面,对基本农田保护机制的创新进行了探讨。     

“创新”是企业生存发展的灵魂——中石化西北石油局“十五”大后生产和经营的实践探索

"创新"使西北石油局极大地解放了生产力.体制创新,转轨改制,队伍结构得到了合理调整,资源得到了优化配置,为技术创新、管理创新提供了制度保证.技术创新支撑企业超常发展,经济实力大幅度提高.     

我国地方政府创新研究:现状、热点与展望

随着"中国地方政府创新奖"的设立,地方政府创新逐渐成为政治学、公共管理学的热门研究内容,研究成果丰硕。基于文献计量分析,文章对近二十年来中国地方政府创新的研究成果进行分析、归纳,试图准确把握当前我国地方政府创新研究的热点及其未来趋势。在对我国地方政府创新研究现状进行分析的基础上,对地方政府创新动因、扩散及可持续性等热点主题予以总结,进而发现当前我国地方政府创新研究存在研究深度不够、理论体系缺乏等薄弱之处,并对地方政府创新研究的未来进行了展望。