Further Evidence from Survey Data on Australian Manufacturing Price Changes*

Three data sets from two different quarterly surveys have been used in estimating six standard models of price change behaviour. Results for Total Manufacturing Industry, for all three data sets, show prices respond to both actual cost movements and commodity market excess demand conditions. For most ASIC two-digit industries, prices respond rapidly to actual cost movements, and for many industries they also respond directly to excess demand conditions. No single excess demand measure is appropriate for all industries. The magnitude of orders and inventories influences is very small, but capacity utilization contributions seem far from trivial. Industry results are frequently sensitive to the survey used and/or to the method used to weight individual firm's responses.     

Adjustment of Profits: Evidence from Australian Manufacturing

Studies of industry profitability generally deal with long-run equilibrium models, making no allowance for slow adjustment to equilibrium. In this study, a cross-sectional analysis is carried out against a sample of Australian manufacturing industries at the Australian Standard Industrial Classification (ASIC) four-digit level between 1977–78 and 1984–85. Firstly, a profit model is estimated in equilibrium form as well as allowing for both uniform and variable adjustment rates across industries. The variable adjustment model is superior, with either model implying at least half adjustment to equilibrium within the seven-year sample period. Secondly, results are examined for the impact of firm homogeneity of firms within industries. Homogeneity of firms is found to have substantial impact,increasing both the estimated profits-concentration relationship and the estimated speed of adjustment.     

The Demand for Australian Rules Football*

Declining attendances at Australian Rules football games organized by the VFL recently have become the focus of much concern. An econometric analysis of the demand for football is presented, using annual average attendance data for the years 1950–86. It is found that increases in admission prices had a significant negative effect on demand, and increases in real income a positive impact. Amongst other variables of importance in explaining demand are lagged attendance and uncertainty of outcome. Elasticities of demand are calculated and it is shown how they might be used to predict attendance under different pricing scenarios.     

“母市场效应”:来自中国制造业对外贸易面板数据的证据

文章通过模型的建构证明了母市场效应的存在性。文章采用Bergstrand(1989)的引力模型,考察了中国制造业中出口额较大、出口国较多的HS码共28章产品。通过对各章产品面板数据的回归分析发现,除了陶瓷品外,其余27章产品均存在显著的母市场效应。其中钢铁、无机化学和车辆等产品呈现较强的母市场效应,而纺织品、精密仪器等产品则呈现较弱的母市场效应。28章产品中除了陶瓷外其余均为劳动密集型产品,而且绝大部分产品对伙伴国来说为奢侈品。距离、是否接壤和是否有共同语言等变量对中国制造业产品的出口影响并不太显著,对各章产品影响方向也不一致。自由贸易协定对中国制造业产品出口具有显著的促进作用。     

成本冲击与价格粘性的非对称性——来自中国微观制造业企业的证据

本文在状态依存模型框架内,估计了中国制造业企业价格粘性的非对称性和异质性。结果显示制造业产品的价格粘性具有非对称的特征,同时企业的"异质性"也影响了产品的价格粘性。根据价格粘性理论,存在价格粘性时,货币是"非中性"的,通过调整货币数量能够影响短期内的产出。然而,由于价格粘性的非对称性,在通货膨胀时期,央行为了抑制通胀而采取的紧缩性货币政策将更多地表现为产出减少,而非价格水平下降;相反,为提高产出而实行的扩张性货币政策将更多地表现为价格水平上升,而非产出水平提高。只有通货紧缩时期,价格粘性的非对称性出现反转,扩张性货币政策在短期内才更有效。     

Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: Time-Series Evidence from Australian Manufacturing

This paper uses historical annual data for 27 years from 1968-69 on eight two-digit ANZSIC industries to assess the impact of the changes in industry assistance on economic efficiency. The empirical analysis shows that a 1 per cent decline in the nominal rate of assistance leads to between O.J 8 and 056 per cent gain in total factor productivity, the latter our measure of economic efficiency. This finding has strong policy implications for the future of tariff reform in the manufacturing sector.     

The Persistence of Income Shocks: Evidence from Rural Indonesia

This paper estimates the persistence of transient income shocks to farm households in rural Indonesia. Persistence is defined as the elasticity of a household's 1997 household per capita income with respect to its 1993 per capita income, controlling for time‐invariant characteristics of the household. Local rainfall levels are used as an exogenous source of transitory variation in 1993 income. Four main conclusions emerge. First, roughly 30% of household income shocks remain after four years. Second, the persistence of negative and positive shocks is approximately equal; if anything, positive shocks last longer. Third, neither positive nor negative income shocks disproportionately affect poor households. Finally, measurement error in income and unobserved household heterogeneity are important sources of bias. These findings cast doubt on common arguments advocating public intervention to stabilize or redistribute income, and suggest that anti‐poverty policy should address more permanent causes of household poverty.     

The Effect of Foreign Demand on Residential Property Prices: Evidence from Australia

This study estimates the impact of foreign demand for Australian residential real estate on property prices. Using postcode-level administrative data and fixed-effects regression techniques we find a positive relationship between foreign investment approvals and price growth. Our analysis suggests that, on average, foreign investment contributed between $80 and $122 to quarterly price growth in Sydney and Melbourne between July 2010 and March 2015. This is a small proportion of the increase in property prices over the period.     

Offshore Outsourcing and Productivity: Evidence from Japanese Firm‐level Data Disaggregated by Tasks

This paper examines the relationship of offshoring with productivity, based on the original survey data of Japanese firms. Productivity gains were found in the firms offshoring both manufacturing and service tasks, but not in the firms offshoring only either manufacturing or service tasks. This paper also finds that firms offshoring to various destinations tend to be more productive than non‐offshoring firms. These results suggest that the level of firms' engagement in offshoring is more important for productivity than whether or not firms engage in offshoring.     

Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Australian Firm Panel Data

This paper investigates the key drivers of fixed firm investment of listed non‐financial companies in Australia over the period from 1987 to 2009. A Tobin's q model of investment is augmented to account for the effect of economic uncertainty on the investment decision. The effects of Tobin's q, sales and cash flows on firm investment rate are also analysed and discussed. Consistent with existing literature, this research finds clear evidence of negative effects of both macroeconomic and firm idiosyncratic uncertainty on Australian firm investment. However, evidence also shows that firm‐specific uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than macroeconomic uncertainty.     

Tests of Income Pooling on Household Budget Data: The Australian Evidence

The unitary household model implies pooling of all individual incomes. This study distinguishes between various types of income pooling and tests them on Australian household income/expenditure data. The tests recognise the endogeneity of both earned and unearned income and are performed using a 3 SLS estimation procedure that allows feedback between the various equations. The results support income pooling for some items, though not for others. Moreover, income pooling across gender seems much less likely for old people than for the younger individuals. The study, also, provides evidence on the interaction between the various types of income.     

融资约束对制造业产出的抑制性影响分析

融资约束究竟会对中国制造业产出带来多大的抑制效应,一直是学术界关注的问题。分别从企业外部融资利息支出占现金流的比重、内源资金积累的自由现金流和由企业资产和成立年限构建的SA指数这三个维度,考察我国制造业面临的融资约束及其对企业产出的影响。实证结果显示,融资约束抑制了我国制造业的产出水平。利息支出占现金流比重的增加将导致我国制造业产出下降;同时,企业产出与自身积累的自由现金流显著正相关;而SA指数每增加一个单位将导致企业产出下降1.15%。分行业来看,融资约束对企业产出的制约在技术密集型行业表现得尤为显著,对于其中的典型行业——通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,产出的下降比例最高;分所有制来看,融资约束对国有企业产出的抑制效应虽然为负,但并不显著,而融资约束却能显著降低民营企业的产出水平。     

The Speed and Stability of Price Adjustment in Australian Manufacturing*

A model of industry speed of price adjustment is derived from firm pricing behaviour. The model is applied to quarterly two‐digit Australian manufacturing data for the period 1985 (Q3) to 2002 (Q3). The results suggest that the industry speed of price adjustment is positively related to the average size of large firms within the industry and is negatively related to industry concentration. We also find that import share has a role in attenuating the effects of industry concentration and that growth in a moving average of real gross domestic product reduces the speed of price adjustment. Calculated industry speeds of price adjustment are both stable across the period of examination and small, suggesting that manufacturing prices are sticky.     

The Role of Government Assistance in Structural Change in Manufacturing: Australian Evidence

By the 1970s the Australian manufacturing sector was, by OECD standards, small, fragmented and inward looking. Successive Australian Federal Governments have since responded by progressively reducing levels of assistance to manufacturing in an effort to promote structural change. In this article we investigate whether these lower levels of assistance have accelerated the pace of structural change by estimating an empirical model using a pooled cross-section time-series data set. Our results suggest that reduced levels of assistance to manufacturing have had a positive impact on the pace of structural change in the Australian manufacturing sector. In addition, we find that taxes on factor inputs can be expected to impede structural change, and it would appear that structural change proceeds at a faster pace in more specialised manufacturing sectors.     

Do Exchange Rate Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Reserve Accumulation? Evidence from Emerging Markets*

It is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries, motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness, tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations. Using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998:M1 to 2016:M12, we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves. Moreover, we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a “leaning against the depreciation wind” policy, rather than the appreciation wind (i.e., we provide evidence of a “fear of depreciation”).     

Disaggregated Earnings and Stock Prices: Evidence from International Listed Shipping Firms

The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of earnings from vessel sales on stock prices for international listed shipping firms. The empirical findings show that operating income from vessel sales has a higher power in explaining stock prices than operating earnings only as a sole piece of accounting information for future profitability, investment opportunities, and firm valuation. The testing period is from 2000 to 2009. The methodologies are those of panel cointegration and panel causality tests. The implications are very crucial, since managers may manipulate annual earnings by such non-operating activities.     

The Effect of Foreign Entry Regulation on Downstream Productivity: Microeconomic Evidence from China*

We examine the cross‐industry influence of foreign entry regulation (based on a novel measure) on the productivity outcomes of downstream firms through input–output linkages in China. In contrast to the significant liberalization of the manufacturing sector, restrictions on the service sector remained stringent over the period 1997–2007. We find a powerful depressant effect of foreign entry barriers imposed on the upstream manufacturing and service industries on the productivity of downstream manufacturers, and this effect depends on a number of industry‐ and firm‐specific features. Our research calls for further investment liberalization (particularly in the service sector) in China.