Corporate Disclosure of Environmental Liability Information: Theory and Evidence*

Abstract. The decision to disclose information concerning a firm's environmental liabilities is modeled as a sequential game involving the firm, a capital market, and outside stakeholders who can impose proprietary (political) costs on the firm. A partial disclosure equilibrium is derived in which firms reveal information strategically, maximizing the share-value net of expected political costs. Inherent uncertainty regarding the existence and size of the liabilities creates a setting where outsiders are uncertain if management is informed about these liabilities, so firms can plausibly withhold “bad news”, that is, they do not disclose liabilities that exceed a threshold level. Three novel hypotheses are that a firm is more likely to disclose as (1) its pollution propensity increases, (2) outsiders' knowledge of its environmental liabilities increases, and (3) the risk of incurring proprietary costs decreases. Empirical support is found for the hypotheses, based on the accounting disclosures made by sample firms selected from the records of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Energy. Improved accounting and auditing standards for environmental disclosure would build on at least three implications of the study:

• 1 To the extent that inherent uncertainty leaves managers with discretion as to what to disclose, the partial disclosure equilibrium result suggests that not all firms will comply with disclosure standards.
• 2 Publishing broad environmental performance indicators for companies in nonaccounting outlets would increase public awareness of a manager's private information endowment, making voluntary accounting disclosures of the liabilities more likely.
• 3 If a significant decline in stakeholder tolerance of pollution occurs, the expected proprietary costs of disclosing increase, and companies become less likely to disclose.

     

Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-exporting economies as a determinant of export volumes of a sample of 12 industrial countries. Four fixed-coefficient panel-data estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1–2003:4 using three measures of exchange-rate volatility. Our aim is to provide a theoretically and empirically justifiable specification that can guide researchers. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we find little evidence that volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade. We use second-generation RC estimation, which corrects for biases arising from incorrect functional forms, omitted variables, and measurement errors. Our results suggest that the finding of a significant and negative impact of volatility is attributable to specification biases. JEL no. C23, F3, F31     

Further Evidence on Consequences of Debt Covenant Violations

We present new evidence on debt covenant violation (DCV) consequences that have not previously been examined in the literature. In particular, we show that a DCV triggers significant information asymmetry and uncertainty on the part of shareholders and auditors as reflected in higher bid–ask spreads, return volatility, and audit fees. Further, these consequences occur even when lender‐imposed costs are relatively lower, consistent with the act of default itself triggering shareholder and auditor uncertainty. The results highlight costs to the firm of having bright‐line rules in contracts, and add to an understanding of the consequences of DCVs.     

Individual Investors' Attention to Accounting Information: Evidence from Online Financial Communities*

Online financial communities provide a unique opportunity to directly examine individual investors' attention to accounting information on a large scale and in great detail. I analyze accounting-related content in large samples of Yahoo! message board posts and StockTwits and find investors pay attention to a range of accounting information, fixating particularly on earnings, cash, and revenues. Consistent with the expectation that investors react to relevant information events, I find accounting-related discussion elevated around the filings of earnings releases and 8-K reports, but the reaction to periodic reports is confined to small firms. I also find investors expand their acquisition of accounting information and processing efforts in poor information environments. Greater attention to accounting information at earnings releases does not appear to be meaningfully associated with better information processing.     

Evidence on the predictive ability of inflation-adjusted earnings measures*

Abstract. The results of prior studies on the information content of inflation-adjusted data in general, and of the SFAS 33 pronouncement in particular, have been mixed. The present study is motivated by the need to address further the relevance of SFAS 33 data to decisions made by security-market participants. The relevance of the SFAS 33 data is assessed in two contexts: (1) the association of security returns with inflation-adjusted and historical cost based earnings, and (2) the SFAS 33 data's ability, in a one-period-ahead prediction of security returns in comparison with the traditional historical cost model. The association test leads to mixed and inconclusive results. The predictive ability test indicates that several inflation-adjusted measures of firms' earnings outperformed the historical cost earnings measure for 1981 and 1982. The latter results were not sensitive to the form of user loss function, sample size, and type of sample. These results may suggest that the recent decision by the FASB to make reporting according to the SFAS 33 pronouncement optional was premature. Résumé. Les résultats d'études précédentes sur le contenu informationnel des données ajustées pour tenir compte des effets de l'inflation en général, et de l'émission par le FASB de la Norme n^o33 en particulier, ont été mixtes. L'étude qui suit se justifie par la nécessité de se pencher davantage sur la pertinence des données selon la Norme n^o 33 relativement aux décisions prises par les intervenants sur le marché des valeurs mobilières. Les auteurs évaluent la pertinence des données selon la Norme n^o 33 dans deux contextes: 1) l'association du rendement des titres aux bénéfices ajustés pour tenir compte des effets de l'inflation et aux bénéfices exprimés à la valeur d'origine et 2) la valeur des données selon la Norme n^o 33 dans la prévision, un exercice à l'avance, du rendement de titres par comparaison au modèle traditionnel du coût d'origine. Le test d'association mène à des résultats mixtes et non concluants. Le test de la valeur de prédiction indique que plusieurs mesures des bénéfices ajustées pour tenir compte des effets de l'inflation sont supérieures à la mesure des bénéfices au coût d'origine pour 1981 et 1982. Ces derniers résultats n'ont pas été sensibles à la forme de la fonction de perte de l'utilisateur, à la taille de l'échantillon et au type d'échantillon. Ces résultats donnent à penser que la décision récente du FASB de rendre facultative l'application de la Norme n^o33 en matière de publication d'information était prématurée.     

Relative versus Incremental Information Content*

Abstract. This study distinguishes between incremental and relative information content. Incremental comparisons ask whether one accounting measure provides information content beyond that provided by another, and apply when one measure is viewed as given and an assessment is desired regarding the incremental contribution of another (e.g., a supplemental disclosure). Relative comparisons ask which measure has greater information content, and apply when making mutually exclusive choices among alternatives, or when rankings by information content are desired (e.g., when comparing alternative disclosures). Questions of both incremental and relative information content arise frequently in accounting. However, few previous studies have examined questions of relative information content. Possible explanations include unfamiliarity with the relative versus incremental distinction, and the additional statistical complexity involved in testing for relative information content. First, we examine analytically the relation between incremental and relative information content, demonstrating that they address different research questions and require different tests for statistical significance. Second, we identify accounting research contexts in which questions of relative and incremental information content arise. Third, we propose a new regression-based test for relative information content. This test applies to both returns and valuation studies, generalizes to any number of predictor variables, and can be used in conjunction with White's (1980) adjustment for heteroskedasticity. Fourth, we illustrate tests for relative and incremental information content in a familiar research setting that compares the information contents of net income, cash flows, and net sales in 40 industries. Résumé. Les auteurs établissent la distinction entre le contenu marginal et relatif en information. Les comparaisons du contenu marginal visent à déterminer si une mesure comptable livre un contenu en information supérieur à celui d'une autre, et elles s'appliquent dans les cas où une mesure est considérée comme étant donnée et où l'on souhaite évaluer la contribution marginale d'une autre mesure (par exemple, la présentation de renseignements complémentaires). Les comparaisons du contenu relatif visent à déterminer quelle mesure livre un contenu en information supérieur, et elles s'appliquent dans les cas où les choix entre différentes possibilités sont mutuellement exclusifs ou lorsqu'il s'agit d'établir des classifications selon le contenu en information (par exemple, dans la comparaison de différentes possibilités en ce qui a trait à la présentation d'information). La question du contenu marginal aussi bien que du contenu relatif en information se pose fréquemment en comptabilité. Dans les études réalisées jusqu'à maintenant, l'on s'est peu intéressé aux questions touchant le contenu relatif en information. Cette lacune pourrait s'expliquer, entre autres, par le caractère inusité de la distinction entre contenu relatif et contenu marginal en information et par la complexité statistique accrue que supposent des tests portant sur le contenu relatif en information. Selon un schéma analytique, les auteurs examinent en premier lieu la relation entre le contenu marginal et le contenu relatif en information, en démontrant que les mesures correspondantes se rapportent à des questions de recherche différentes et qu'elles exigent des tests de signification statistique différents. Ils déterminent en deuxième lieu quels sont les contextes de recherche comptable dans lesquels se posent les questions pertinentes au contenu relatif et marginal en information. Ils proposent, en troisième lieu, un test inédit fondé sur la régression et s'appliquant au contenu relatif en information. Ce test convient à la fois aux études de rendement et aux études d'évaluation, peut être généralisé à n'importe quel nombre de variables prédictives et peut être utilisé en association avec l'ajustement de White (1980) relatif à l'hétéroscédasticité. Ils illustrent, en quatrième lieu, l'application de tests du contenu relatif et marginal en information dans un contexte de recherche familier où le contenu informationnel du bénéfice net, des flux de trésorerie et du chiffre d'affaires net est comparé dans 40 entreprises.     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

风险度量和投资组合构造的进一步实证

构造投资组合是资产管理基本内容,不同的风险度量方法可以构造不同的投资组合,何种度量方法理角效,学者们说法不一,本文主要运用方差、下方风险和风险价值三种度量方法进行风险度量和资产配置,试图通过实证的方式来比较三种风险度量方法在资产选择上的异同,本文实证的结果和前期国内学者的结论大有出入。     

Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior*

Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sell‐side analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good (bad) news, which corroborates previous findings on the post‐analyst‐revision drift. The opposite effects of information uncertainty on forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good versus bad news support the analyst underreaction hypothesis and are inconsistent with analyst forecast rationality or optimism suggested in prior literature.     

Nonaudit Services and Earnings Management: UK Evidence*

Using a sample of UK firms for the period 1996‐98, we provide empirical evidence on the relation between nonaudit services (NAS) purchase and three proxies for earnings management: (1) the likelihood that client firm accounting practices during the sample period were publicly criticized or subject to regulatory investigation; (2) the likelihood that client firms were required to restate prior financial statements or adjust current year results upon adoption of Financial Reporting Standard (FRS) No. 12, which was intended to curb opportunistic use of provisions; and (3) the mean absolute value of client discretionary working capital accruals over the sample period. The level of NAS purchase is measured, alternatively, as (1) the ratio of nonaudit to total auditor fees, (2) the natural log of NAS fees, and (3) the decile rank of a particular client's NAS fees given all NAS fees received by the audit firm practice office. With one exception, we find that all three measures of earnings management are positively and significantly associated with the three measures of NAS purchase.     

Further Evidence on the Effect of Clean Indoor Air Laws on Smoking: The Italian Case

The evidence about the effectiveness of anti-smoking legislation on smoking behavior is mixed. We provide new estimates for Italy using unexplored data drawn from the Household Budget Survey. We show that the smoking ban introduced in 2005 has a significant effect on smoking incidence. According to our baseline specification, the ban reduces household-based smoking prevalence by 1.3 percentage points. Results are robust to the various empirical strategies proposed in the literature, even accounting for seasonality.