Medium-term EU integration impacts on Norwegian agriculture: A partial equilibrium analysis

The paper analyses and discusses possible impacts on Norwegian agriculture of an EU membership based on the regionalized agricultural sector model CAPRI. Norwegian agriculture is characterized by a small-scale farming structure and high levels of support. Previous analyses have shown that Norwegian agriculture is expected to undergo dramatic changes because of EU membership in terms of farm income, production and structural change. Our study indicates that a substantial share of the agricultural production can be maintained at the national level. Milk and crop production may remain largely unaffected, while meat production decreases in the range of 10-20% compared to a reference run without membership. However, a reduction in total farm income by about 40% indicates that structural adjustments will follow EU accession. The results are discussed in view of the pattern of adjustments observed in Finland and Austria after EU accession in 1995. The need for the dairy industry to take advantage of the improved market access is stressed. Attention is also called to some strengths and limitations of the CAPRI model to analyse large-scale policy changes and to identify model improvements as an area of future research.     

The Role of Home Gardens in Promoting Multi-Functional Agriculture in Hungary

Home gardens are small-scale family farms managed with traditional methods. Throughout Hungary's history, they have provided food security and diet quality to families who have faced volatile food prices and fluctuating real incomes. If markets function better with European Union (EU) accession, the conditions for reliance on home gardens may weaken—although not for all Hungarians. This paper reports the results of an interdisciplinary project investigating the economic value of home gardens of over 400 farmers in rural Hungary. We find that home gardens generate several public goods, including agro biodiversity and cultural heritage. The most economically, geographically and ecologically marginalized farmers not only manage the home gardens with the highest levels of public goods, but also derive the highest private benefits from them. Should Hungary seek to promote multi functional agriculture in line with the objectives of the EU's reformed Common Agricultural Policy, then provisions for home gardens would need to be incorporated into national programmes and legal frameworks. This research identifies some of the crops and the characteristics of farmers and farming communities that would constitute least cost targets for related programmes. Findings have implications for other EU member Central and Eastern European Countries with similar traditions of home gardening.     

Transatlantic Similarities and Contrasts in Rural Development PoliciesTransatlantische Ähnlichkeiten und Gegensätze bei den Politiken zur Entwicklung des ländlichen RaumsPoints communs et divergences transatlantiques sur le développement rural

Transatlantic Similarities and Contrasts in Rural Development Policies
The United States (US) and European Union (EU) share many general policy aims for rural areas, but they differ in the ways in which they try to achieve these aims. The principal difference lies in the role envisioned by agriculture in overall rural development. EU policies treat agriculture as a provider of public goods, and many of its 'rural' programmes target agriculture. In the US, very few Federal rural development programs are focused solely on agriculture. Differences of approach may be linked to different farm distributions, population densities, historical settlement patterns, and the historical policy process per se . In particular, in the US rural development policy does not cover the environment or income support to farmers; these are addressed through other programmes. In contrast, the EU classifies its agri-environmental programmes as rural development, claiming that more environmentally-friendly farm practices bring benefits to the broader rural economy. US State and local initiatives emphasize many themes found in the EU's Pillar II programmes, such as value-added or sustainable agriculture. Overall, although there are marked differences in the ways in which policies are implemented, the coverage of these policies in the EU and US is rather similar.     

STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND

Full integration of agriculture into the GATT framework is shown to be the most fruitful approach to resolve agricultural trade problems and to ensure an overall success of the Uruguay Round. Full integration implies, however, that certain widely discussed ideas for agricultural trade reform, such as producer subsidy equivalents, will be less useful. An alternative proposal for trade reform is outlined which is applicable across all sectors and hence would better promote full integration of agriculture into GATT.     

Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis

The stabilization of global climate presents one of the most complex problems in public good provision the world has faced. Continuation of “business as usual” policies, leading to warming of more than 2 degrees over the next year, will produce significant damage to agricultural systems and catastrophic damage to the natural ecosystems that ultimately support agriculture. The best solution to the public goods problem is a “contract and converge” agreement in which the ultimate outcome is a common global entitlement to CO₂ emissions per person.     

西部区域特色农业发展与生产性公共产品供给

发展特色现代农业是西部农业现代化的基本取向,而发展特色现代农业乃至农业现代化,农业基础设施等生产性公共产品是物质基础和基本条件。从西部农业公共产品供给实际出发,以区域特色农业实现规模化、专业化发展为取向,进一步创新农业公共产品供给模式是西部特色现代农业发展的基本要求。     

Determinants of Voter Support for a Five‐Year Ban on the Cultivation of Genetically Modified Crops in Switzerland

While much effort has been devoted to estimating market premiums for non‐genetically modified (GM) food, the results of such research are largely silent about the preferences for the public good aspects, or externalities, of GM food production. For public goods, the closest substitute of private consumption decisions is voting on referenda. In November 2005, 55.7% of 2 million Swiss voters approved a five‐year moratorium (ban) on the commercial cultivation of GM plants in Switzerland. The present study examines how individual voting decisions were determined by: (i) socioeconomic characteristics; (ii) political preference/ideology; and (iii) agreement with a series of arguments in favour and against the use of GM plants in Swiss agriculture. The analysis is based on the data of the regular voter survey undertaken after the national‐level voting in Switzerland. The results suggest that current concerns about the use of genetically engineered plants in agriculture may not automatically decrease with higher levels of education/knowledge and generational change. Furthermore, analysis of voter motives suggests that public support for a ban on GM crops may be even larger in other countries, where industrial interests in crop biotechnology are less pronounced.     

农村公共产品供给机制变迁的历史困境及其突破

农村公共产品供给机制创新是深化农村改革和新农村建设的重要内容。城乡非均衡发展战略、农作制度改革的"单项突进"以及供需主体的双重缺失,导致了农村公共产品供给的历史困境,并日益成为困扰和阻碍农业和农村发展的瓶颈。本文在考察建国以来农村公共产品供给制度变迁轨迹的基础上,试图探寻新时期解决农村公共产品供需失调的制度安排,无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

International Poultry Trade and the GATT

This research simulates and evaluates present and future trends in international poultry trade utilizing the Armington framework which allows traded goods to be differentiated by their country of origin. Parameters in the Armington model were estimated, and the trade distorting impacts of tariffs and export subsidies on the international poultry market were simulated. Results illustrate the potential impacts of increased trade protection on future market potential oversees. They also demonstrate the importance of a meaningful agreement on agricultural trade in the Uruguay Round of the GATT.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.     

The Need for Comprehensive Climate Change Mitigation Policies in European Agriculture

During the last decade the European Union has shown a firm determination to move to a low carbon economy. Since 2008 the agricultural sector has been part of this strategy and is included in the EU effort sharing decision. Introducing specific GHG mitigation obligations for agriculture could be one option to achieve an overall GHG emission reduction target. One argument for this strategy would be that the agricultural sector is the main contributor of non‐CO₂ greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, a comprehensive EU mitigation policy would most likely have to take into account the particularities of its diverse agricultural sector, reflected by different trends in historical GHG emission reductions, and a varied mitigation cost structure between farming systems. Consequently, using targeted but flexible policy instruments may more equitably distribute the mitigation efforts across Member States and reduce cost inefficiencies. The increased uptake of technological and management emission mitigation measures would be crucial to keep mitigation costs for EU farmers at a minimum. However, while unilateral action would initially signal the EU's commitment to serious GHG mitigation effort in the sector, ultimately a multilateral agreement is needed to minimise emission leakage and to reduce global GHG emissions effectively.     

TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENT: EFFICIENCY,EQUITY AND SOVEREIGNTY CONSIDERATIONS

The Uruguay Round trade agreement includes a new programme of work to examine the relationship between trade and environmental policies. Environmental groups remain suspicious that trade liberalisation will undermine or discourage improvements in environmental standards. In this paper, the use of trade measures to protect producers from competition with goods produced under less stringent environmental standards is examined. It is shown that such measures will not improve national welfare, and may undermine environmental policies. Failure of a government to enact appropriate environmental policies constitutes an implicit subsidy, and equity considerations suggest that this will continue to create pressure for changes to the GATT to protect producers who are meeting higher standards.     

AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND THE URUGUAY ROUND*

With the Punta del Este Declaration, agriculture was accorded prominence in the GATT negotiations and, for the first time, national support policies were on the agenda. In this paper, the progress of the negotiations on agriculture is reviewed in an attempt to understand the factors which shaped the final outcome and to assess the likely impact of the round on liberalising agricultural trade. Although the immediate impact is likely to be modest, the round will provide longer term benefits to agricultural trade through the extension of the GATT rules-based system to agriculture. The framework which has been laid should provide a sound basis for future negotiations. Within the multilateral framework, the pace of change is a function of the willingness of all parties to compromise and this is evident in the Uruguay Round's outcome which reflects the European Union's agricultural reform agenda.     

Multifunctionality of agriculture: an inquiry into the complementarity between landscape preservation and food security

Without support, the levels of agricultural public goods suchas food security and landscape preservation would fall shortof demand in high-cost countries. However, as demonstrated byNorway as a case study, the current level of support is disproportionatefrom a public goods perspective, and the policy instrumentsare badly targeted at the public goods in question. Becauseagricultural land is a major component of both food securityand landscape preservation, giving rise to a high degree ofcost complementarity between the public goods, it would be moreefficient to support land-extensive production techniques thanproduction per se.     

Building an empirically-based framework to value multiple public goods of agriculture at broad supranational scales

Agricultural landscapes deliver multiple, highly valued goods such as cultural amenities, biodiversity conservation and climate stability. These goods are often delivered as side-effects of farmers' production decisions driven by broad-scale, supranational changes in agricultural, trade or other policies. Human well-being is thus affected in ways not taken into account in these macro-policy decisions. To avoid this policy failure, there is a growing demand for the valuation of broad-scale changes in public goods by the general public. For this purpose, context-rich valuation scenarios at this broad scale need to be developed which are empirically-based, policy-relevant and understandable by the general public. In this way, respondents are focused on actual trade-offs rather than invited to give symbolic reactions. This paper presents and discusses a valuation framework developed to fulfil these criteria. The approach is based on a typology of Macro-Regional Agri-Environmental Problems (MRAEP). Each MRAEP is defined by: (1) prevailing farming systems and agricultural landscapes; (2) current levels of public-good delivery; (3) expected direction of land-use change; and (4) expected effects of such change on public-good provision in each macro-region. Multivariate analysis of EU-wide data on agricultural landscapes and farming-systems led to identify thirteen macro-regions in the EU. Current public-good provision was described using public-good indicators. Only those public goods that are expected to change or could be improved by available policy options (core public goods) were used to generate choice alternatives for survey respondents. The paper ends by discussing innovative elements in the proposed approach, achievements, shortcomings and possible policy uses.     

新时期地质调查发展战略研究——农业地质工作在和谐农村建设中的战略作用

研究目的:探讨农业地质工作的主要任务、内容,研究其在和谐农村建设中的战略作用,为促进和谐农村建设发挥农业地质作用提供建议。研究方法:公共产品理论,公益性地质调查分类理论。研究结果:农业地质产品的生产与服务主要属纯公共产品的公共服务业,是公益性地质工作,开展地质、地下水、土壤、地球化学、地质环境等多学科、多专业的综合调查研究工作,在和谐农村建设中具有战略作用。研究结论:和谐新农村建设、农业产业结构调整、农民增产增收和粮食安全、农业发展规划、农村生态环境保护和防灾减灾、土地整理等工作,对农业地质产品和服务提出了新需求,迫切需要加强农业地质产品调查与服务体系建设,提供方便、快捷、公开的服务。     

农村公共产品供给中的政府责任担当:基于扩大内需视角

扩大农村消费需求对于拉动经济增长具有重要作用,增加农村公共产品供给又是扩大农村消费需求的关键。增加农村公共产品供给不仅能够缓解农村贫困、提高农民收入,而且能够直接提高农村消费能力。总量不足是我国农村公共产品供给中存在的主要问题,体现为农村基础设施建设落后,农村教育、医疗卫生及社会保障事业城乡差距明显。农村公共产品供给不足的原因主要在于政府责任的缺失。增加农村公共产品供给,政府应切实统筹城乡发展,加大对农业、农村的投入力度,合理界定纵向间政府职责、建立政府间责任分担机制,建立体现农民偏好的决策机制、提高供给效率,强化农村公共产品市场化改革中的政府责任。     

AGRICULTURE AND THE MACRO-ECONOMY: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

Agricultural economics is sometimes criticised for being microcentred. We should not apologise; colleagues who study industrial organisation or many aspects of public sector economics are neither more nor less guilty. The fact remains, however, that agriculture, like all sectors, operates within a macro-economic framework and there is a growing spate of literature focusing on that broader perspective. It runs in two directions: the farming consequences of macro-economic developments where much of the attention focuses on exchange rates and interest rates, and the effects of agricultural policies on the economy at large. The objective here is to review the situation. Topical issues considered range from the value of the dollar and the operation of the European exchange-rate, mechanism, to controversies surrounding the recent GATT negotiations.     

Implications of World Trade Organisation accession for China's agricultural trade patterns

This paper examines the composition of China's international trade from 1980 to 1997, with a focus on agriculture and a view towards understanding agriculture's changing trade structure relative to other sectors. We analyse the time series behaviour of individually traded goods at the Standard Industrial Trade Classification three-digit level, categorised into three groups: agricultural commodities, 'other' primary commodities and manufactures. We find that China's agricultural trade has expanded along comparative advantage lines in only a very modest way, suggesting that World Trade Organization membership will have a large impact on China's agricultural trade patterns.