Labour Utilization and Wage Inflation in Australia: An Empirical Examination*

This paper tests the hypothesis that the level of labour utilization within the firm should be substituted into the Phillips Curve in place of traditional measures of excess demand. Gregory and Smith (1983) proposed overtime hours as a proxy for labour utilization within the firm. For various reasons we prefer the deviation from trend in hours worked. The results support the underlying hypothesis, and add strength to the view that to understand the process of wage inflation at the macro level we must examine the utilization of labour at the micro level of the firm.     

An Empirical Examination of Entry Patterns in Local Telephone Markets*

In this analysis we examine the market entry patterns of new local telephone companies. We construct and estimate a multinomial logit model using information describing numbering code distribution within local telephone markets and the associated income, density, and regulatory characteristics of these markets. Our findings support the conventional wisdom that facilities-based entry by new local competitors is more likely to occur in large urban telephone markets. In addition, we present evidence that, with the exception of territories served by Ameritech, entry is more likely to occur in Bell Operating Company service territories.     

利率与通货膨胀:一个费雪效应的经验分析

本文应用现代时间序列计量经济学技术，结合中国1979－2000年间的有关数据，进行了费雪效应在中国的实证研究。经验证据表明在这一时期同时存在长期和短期费雪效应。这样，无论在长期还是短期，名义利率的变化主要反映预期通胀而不是实际利率的变化，所以必须慎用名义利率作为货币政策松紧程度的指标。这在政策上可理解为政府为控制通胀而调整利率的一种规则，从而本文的分析对未来利率调整幅度的具体确定与计算有潜在的应用价值。     

Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation*

This paper provides empirical estimates of the determinants of crime rates in Australia. It differs from most modern criminological analysis by being aggregative rather than offender-based and by deriving from the economic approach to criminal behaviour. Its major finding is that court committals and imprisonments have operated as major deterrent factors in explaining variations in recorded crime rates. These deterrence results seem especially strong and robust. Improved measurement, however, could alter the findings for some other influences examined. The paper considers the relationship of these research findings to criminal justice policy.     

A Generalization of the Fisher Equation*

The Fisher equation is generalized by introducing differential expectations. It is argued that borrowers and lenders may adjust their expectations of inflation with different speeds. The appropriate reduced-form equation for the interest rate is derived and estimated using the data series contained in Fisher's The Theory of Interest.     

An Empirical Assessment of the Swedish Bullionist Controversy*

In the 18th century, a fierce political debate broke out in Sweden about the causes of an extraordinary depreciation of the currency. More specifically, the deteriorating value of the Swedish currency was blamed arbitrarily on monetary causes (e.g., the overissuing of banknotes) and on non-monetary causes (such as balance-of-payments deficits). This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of this so-called “Swedish Bullionist Controversy”. The results of vector autoregressions suggest that increasing amounts of paper money did give rise to inflation and a depreciation of the exchange rate. Conversely, non-monetary factors were probably less important for these developments.     

Economic Progress in Australia: An Analysis of Occupational Mobility*

Educational attainment and gender are firmly established in the labour economics literature as key determinants of an individual's economic standing at a given point in time. The concern of the present paper is to determine the impact of these characteristics on economic progress over time. A multinomial logit approach to estimating occupational attainment at various career points is employed. The use of this method of analysis in conjunction with the intertemporal linking of occupations enables us to provide a number of important insights into economic progress in the Australian labour market. Additional years of education are shown to increase the probability of employment in better jobs at the time of labour market entry and also to enhance career mobility. Analysis of male-female differences highlights the sizeable gap between the occupational distributions of these groups. Part of this difference may reflect inequality of opportunity between males and females in the Australian labour market.     

Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia*

Two key relationships which feature prominently through out modern international monetary theory are: (i) covered interest parity and(ii) speculative efficiency of the foreign exchange market, i.e., the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the spot rate. This paper presents some empirical evidence for these two hypotheses using Australian data over the period September 1974 to December 1981 during which the Australian dollar was essentially floating. Both quarterly and overlapping monthly data are used. The results obtained generally provide some support for the two hypotheses.     

An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series*

Whether or not shocks persist has important implications in economics. An empirical study investigates this issue for key Australian and US macroeconomic time series. The existence of persistence is investigated by unit root tests and its magnitude estimated by recently proposed techniques. Results from these different approaches are compared.     

On Regional Unemployment: An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Geographical Differentials in the UK

In this paper we consider the determinants of regional disparities in unemployment rates for the UK regions at NUTS‐II level. We use a mixture panel data model to describe unemployment differentials between heterogeneous groups of regions. The results indicate the existence of two clusters of regions in the UK economy, characterized by high and low unemployment rates, respectively. A major source of heterogeneity appears to be caused by the varying effect (between the two clusters) of the share of employment in the service sector, and we trace its origin to the fact that the high unemployment cluster is characterized by a higher degree of urbanization.     

基于矩阵法的我国银行间市场风险传递效应实证研究

笔者基于2011年上市银行数据,运用矩阵法对我国银行间市场风险的传递效应进行模拟研究,并考虑到非银行金融机构在银行同业交易中的比重不断上升,将非银行金融机构交易数据纳入模型进行重新测算。结果表明我国银行间市场上系统性风险发生的可能性增大,表现为风险传染源银行数量的增加和风险传递范围的扩大。     

Australia and the Pacific Economy*

The industrialization and growth of East Asian countries has shifted the centre of world trade and economic activity towards the Pacific. There has already been a huge redirection of Australia's trade and external economic interests towards the region, based importantly on the emergence of Japan as a major economic power. Australia's future economic prospects will be significantly determined by how it manages its trade policy interests in the context of continuing East Asian industrialization. The most promising Australian trade policy approach is one which allies Australia's trading interests to those of East Asian countries in seeking to maintain an open non-discriminatory trade regime, supportive of the transformation of trade specialization necessary to the industrialization of resource-deficient countries, and which marries that objective to the liberalization of her own and Pacific country markets.     

The Effect of Equal Pay for Females on the Composition of Employment in Australia*

Equal pay for female workers in Australia resulted in marked increases in labour costs. These varied across industries. However. changes in the industrial structure induced by equal pay are found to contribute little by way of explanation for the relatively faster growth of female than male employment in the 1970s.     

Wages and Unemployment in Australia*

This paper reviews various models that may be used to analyze the inflation-unemployment problem in Australia. The focus is on the unemployment problem, rather than on inflation, and on the role of wages, nominal and real, in affecting this problem. Models discussed include the Popular Keynesian, Phillips Curve, Fixed Coefficient and Neoclassical Models. The possibility of increasing returns is considered. Australian evidence bearing on the appropriateness of these models is discussed. The effect of demand expansion on the exchange rate and hence real wages is stressed. Some emphasis is placed on the concept of ‘union-voluntary’ unemployment. At the end possible solutions to the unemployment problem are summarized.     

Asymmetric Monetary Policy in Australia*

We find evidence for asymmetric behaviour in Australian monetary policy. During 1984–1990, the Reserve Bank of Australia acted with considerable discretion yielding poor performance of an interest rate rule. However, it behaved asymmetrically to inflation and the output gap in downturns and upturns. On embracing inflation targeting from 1991, it enhanced its credibility by anchoring inflation expectations. Not only did its actions become more predictable in 1991–2002, it responded asymmetrically only to output, switching to act more acutely in downturns. Although its asymmetric behaviour could result from asymmetric preferences or non‐linear aggregate supply, our results support the former explanation.