INVESTING IN GRAIN STORAGE FACILITIES UNDER FLUCTUATING PRODUCTION*

Fluctuating annual harvest volumes create a peak load problem in the provision of grain storage capacity. There are a number of technologies for handling and storing grain, ranging from capital intensive to labour intensive methods. Optimal provision of grain storage capacity can therefore be analysed in the framework of the conventional peak load pricing model. An investment model of grain storage is outlined and the optimal technology choices are determined according to simple investment roles. Capacity of the more capital intensive storage types should be only provided if the extra capital cost is justified by the saving in operating costs, which depends on the expected utilisation of storage. Some level of supply failure is justifiable. An examination of grain storage costs in Western Australia revealed that horizontal storage was the best technology for dealing with most grain storage demand at sites where turnover is limited In the receival period. This concurs with the general investment choices in Western Australia. However, there appears to be a high level of overcapacity at many sites, implying that the cost of supply failure is perceived to be greater than the marketable value of the grain.     

Changes in grain handling catchments in Australia: an historical perspective

This paper explores some of the important issues that influence the magnitude of receival site grain catchments in Australia. Changes in grain harvests, transport and grain handling technologies and costs; changes in farming systems, crop yields and harvesting capacity; investments in roads and on‐farm storage and economies of size in grain receival infrastructure are shown in combination to affect the size of grain catchments in major grain‐growing regions of Australia over the last 30 years. The size of grain catchments that minimise growers’ costs of road transport of their harvested grain and their receival point charges in various time periods are determined. Differently shaped grain catchments are considered. The main finding is that the size of grain catchments that minimise farmers’ grain transport, off‐farm storage and handling costs since the mid‐1980s has consistently increased, principally due to lessening real costs of road transport, more on‐farm storage and economies of size in grain receival, despite higher grain yields and a greater intensity of cropping. These findings are consistent with the observed reduction in the number of receival sites in many grain‐growing regions of Australia. Site rationalisation is less evident in states where the receival network is owned and operated by a grower cooperative.     

Factors and scenarios affecting a farmer’s grain harvest logistics

This paper explores how changes in Australia’s grain industry supply chains are likely to impact on the nature and profitability of an Australian farmer’s grain harvest logistics. A simulation model is used to show how receival site rationalisation, cheaper on‐farm storage, larger trucks, higher‐yielding crops and new harvest technologies, separately and in combination, affect the nature and profitability of a farmer’s grain harvest logistics. Applying the model to a typical Australian grain farm shows that many of these changes unambiguously advantage the farm business, and often, the combination of these changes increases a farmer’s harvest profits by at least 10 per cent. For many farmers, the task of efficiently designing and managing harvest logistics will be an increasingly difficult yet important series of choices due to the range of storage options, grain pathways, crop portfolios and market opportunities that are arising. A farmer’s decisions about cost‐effective on‐farm storage and transport, and their judicious use, will be a key contributor to additional profit in future years.     

Trends in China's regional grain production and their implications

The paper examines the growth of China's regional grain production during the reform period. Impacts of regional trends on China's interregional grain transfers and international trade are tackled. It linds that there are significant variations between regions in terms of magnitudes and patterns of growth. Northern regions experienced a faster growth than southern regions. There is a tendency to shift grain production centres towards north, leading to a modification of crop composition in total national output, a reversal of the prevailing direction of interregional transfers and a change in contents of grain flows. The study argues that this shift is an inevitable resulf of the uneven progress of reforms and economic development and, consequently, the varying opportunity costs of grain production in different regions. The analysis suggests that for China as a whole, further growth of grain output has been impeded by the lack ot new technologies and increasingly high opportunity costs of grain production. In the northeast region where the potential for increasing maize output is relatively high, production has been constrained by the shortage of transport and storage facilities as well as policy obstacles. The study concludes that there is a necessity for China to decentralize its grain international trade. In doing so, the imports of grain in the south will increase, and so will the exports of maize in the north.     

CENTRALIZED PRAIRIE GRAIN COLLECTION: SAVINGS RELATED TO MARKET EFFICIENCY

A great deal of controversy and debate has arisen as to how many grain delivery points should be maintained to serve the grain growing areas of the Prairies. Many proponents for a change in the system have opted for a need for centralization. In this study, changes in the grain collection system are analyzed for a small region of Saskatchewan using a total of farmers' trucking and storage costs, road costs, elevators' and railways' costs. A modified Stollsteimer model was used to determine the effect on systems cost (sum of the five costs) as the number of grain collection points changed. Centralization of the system tended to reallocate costs from elevator and rail, to farm storage, trucking and road components. Elevator efficiency, to a major extent, determined the number of delivery points required. For the existing system (in 1974) the optimum number of points were estimated to be 80 (of a total of 178). For various alternatives examined, the optimum number varied between 46 to 107, under the existence of the Crowsnest Freight rates. The study suggests that a highly centralized system, (such as that consisting of up to five points for the study area, equivalent to 25 for the province) would increase the total costs of grain handlings and transportation. II y a eu beaucoup d'opinions et de discussions au sujet des centres de livraison de grains qui devraient etre maintenus en service dans les régions de cultures de grains des “Prairies”. Beaucoup de gens favorables à un changement du système sont partisans de la nécéssité d'une centralisation. Dans cette étude, les changements dans le système de collecte des grains sont analysés pour une petite partie du Saskatchewan en utilisant les coûts de transport et de stockage payés par les fermiers, les coûts de transport par chemin de fer et par route, ainsi que les coûts des élévateurs. Un modèle “Stollsteimer” modifyé a été utilisé afin de déterminer les effets sur le système de coûts, lorsque le nombre de centres de livraison de grains variait. Une centralisation du système tend à redistribuer les coûts des élévateurs et des transports par chemin de fer vers les. trois autres composantes (stockage et transport payés par les fermiers et le coût de transport routier). II est clair que l'efficacité des élévateurs, en majeure partie, détermine le nombre des centres de livraison requis. Pour le système existant en 1974, le nombre optimal de centres était estimé a 80 (sur un total de 178). En fonction de la prise en considération de plusieurs variantes et en utilisant le système des prix “Crowsnest Freight rates”, le nombre optimal variait de 46 à 107. l'étude suggère qu'un système hautement centralisé (équivalent à un maximum de cinq centres pour la région étudiée et a vingt-cinq centres pour toute la province) augmenterait le coût total de transport et de maniement des grains.     

Grain transport and rural credit in Mozambique: solving the space–time problem

This paper shows how credit market failures can lead to large welfare losses in grain markets by inducing increased transport for seasonal storage in locations with low credit costs. The burden of these welfare losses falls primarily on rural households. These conclusions are obtained from a spatial/temporal model solved using a mixed complementarity formulation that easily handles interest rate differentials across space. Efforts to address credit market failures and to improve the efficiency of rural storage should be given priority as opposed to the creation of large, formal sector grain collection centers.     

市场化改革背景下我国玉米供给反应实证研究基于2008—2019年东北三省省级面板数据

目的 我国玉米供需形势变化需要国内玉米供给适时作出调整,通过分析玉米供给的影响因素及其背后的农户行为,为国家制定政策并引导农户根据市场需求调整玉米种植决策提出建议。方法 文章利用2008—2019年辽宁、吉林、黑龙江三省省级玉米播种面积和出售价格的面板数据,加入替代作物比较效益和取消玉米临时收储政策虚拟变量,基于Nerlove 模型对玉米供给反应进行实证研究。结果 （1）东北地区玉米短期缺乏价格供给弹性,长期则富有弹性;（2）东北地区玉米播种面积短期内具有一定的刚性;（3）玉米与大豆、水稻的比较效益是影响东北地区农户玉米种植决策的重要因素;（4）取消玉米临时收储政策对东北地区玉米播种面积具有显著的负向影响。结论 短期内仅通过市场价格变化调整玉米供给能力有限,还需要一些配套支持政策及时引导农户调整种植决策;取消玉米临时收储政策后要加快建立优质优价机制,引导农户种植适应市场需求的玉米品种从而增加种粮收入;通过加大“两区”政策支持,将土地、资金、设备等生产要素向优势产区集中,提升优势产区产能。     

Market Emergence and Transition: Arbitrage, Transaction Costs, and Autarky in China's Grain Markets

Using trimonthly Chinese provincial grain prices from 1988 to 1995, we estimate a parity-bounds model of interregional trade for four subperiods to characterize how multiple aspects of market performance change during the process of economic transition. For each period, we estimate the extent to which arbitrage opportunities are realized by traders, the transaction costs between location pairs, and the likelihood that regions do not trade. Trade restrictions cannot explain the pattern of uneven market development over time. Infrastructure bottlenecks, managerial incentive reforms, and production specialization policies, all were likely important factors affecting market performance.     

如何提高矿产资源保障能力

随着经济快速发展和工业化、现代化进程的不断推进,我国矿产资源供需形势严峻,已成为制约经济可持续发展的重大瓶颈之一。缓解“瓶颈”制约,提高矿产资源保障能力的基本思路应是实施“开源”和“节流”,立足国内和开拓国外。不断扩大可供的资源基础,不断提高资源节约、集约利用水平,不断增强境外资源供应能力,促进矿山生态保护,不断夯实资源开发利用基础。     

民国时期华北灾荒与天津粮食市场(1912-1936年)

民国时期，华北地区水旱虫灾频发，其直接后果就是粮食减产或绝收，致使粮食价格上涨，影响到天津城市的粮食供应。为了维持稳定的粮食市场，灾荒期间，政府委托商会组织粮商持照调运粮食，期间发生的运输问题、各地留难问题均由商会负责协调，商会在粮食调运中发挥了不可替代的作用。同时，政府从税厘和运费方面优惠商人，以便于粮食调剂。天津粮食市场整合的绩效显著，一方面平抑了粮价，稳定了市场和社会秩序；另一方面，政府和商人合作，各自实现了利益的最大化，达到了双赢，可以说是官商合作的成功范例。     

粮食安全视阈下河南粮食仓储业发展的思考

粮食是确保国家稳定与长治久安的重要战略物资,河南省作为我国重要产粮区与粮食仓储流通区,其地位和责任十分重要.基于粮食安全视角,本文分析了河南粮食仓储业发展及存在的问题,并就如何进一步加强现代化粮仓建设、完善监督管理、提高信息化程度、培养专业化人才及延长产业链等提出建议.以期为河南省扛稳粮食安全责任,促进粮食仓储业良性发...     

EFFECT OF ASSEMBLY COSTS ON OPTIMUM GRAIN ELEVATOR SIZE AND LOCATION

This paper considers simultaneously the effect of assembly costs and economies of scale on optimum size and location of grain elevators. When assembly factors (transportation costs and grain sales density) are included, optimum elevator size may be as little as 25 to 50 per cent of the size when in-plant costs only are considered. These results are important to all parts of Canada's grain industry, but especially relevant in view of the importance currently associated with efficient grain assembly and in view of the significance of farmer cooperatives in Canadian grain assembly and storage.
EFFETS DU COUT DE RASSEMBLEMENT RELATIF A LA GRANDEUR OPTIMUM ET LA SITUATION GEOGRAPHIQUE ďELEVATEUR. - ľétude considère simultanément ľeffet du coût de rassemblement et des économies àľéchelle optimum et ľemplacement, des élévateurs. Quand le cout du transport et la concentration de ventes de graines est inclu, la grandeur optimum des élévateurs peut étre réduit de 25 à 50 p. 100 de la grandeur basé sur le coût ďusine seul Ces résultats ont une importance pour ľindustrie des graines dans tout le Canada mais plus spécialement à cause de ľimportance couramment attachéàľefficacité du rassemblement des graines et la position primordiale des coopératives rurales dans la tâche de rassemblement et de ľentreposage des graines.     

回顾过去、瞻望未来,林业建设任重而道远──为迎接2000年而作

回顾50年来林业建设的历程。在党中央既符合国情也符合林情的方针政策指引下,林业建设取得了举世瞩目的成绩。但由于政策上的失误,也出现了“两危”的局面,走的是一条独具特色的、未能形成系统的、科学的林业建设道路。在世纪之交,我国林业建设又面临着向新的历史阶段发展,提出了奋斗目标─—在今后一段时间,首要的是提高人们对森林功能的认识,没有认识,什么事情也办不成;并寄希望于青年林学家能投身于林区,与森林为伍,艰苦奋斗一生,创造出前无先人的森林作业法,作出货真价实的贡献。为此,提出了4个重点课题,组织4个科、教、产攻关队伍的设想。同时,根据林木生长长期性的特点,应有“超前”的思想与行动。     

浅谈网格架在平房仓施工中的应用

新型复杂储粮仓房的出现,使施工工艺遇到了前所未有的挑战。在当下,由于人工成本不断提高,必须采用新技术、新工艺降低人力成本上升带来的冲击。网格架施工技术是现代新型、复杂粮仓建设的一种趋势,不仅提高了施工效率,减少了工期,而且在处理复杂工艺上和安全上得到进一步的提升。     

The impact of transport-and transaction-cost reductions on food markets in developing countries: evidence for tempered expectations for Burkina Faso

Reductions in transport and transaction costs are expected to have a major effect on the functioning of food markets in developing countries. For Burkina Faso, this is a relevant issue as it may have important consequences for the food markets in urban and rural deficit areas. A partial equilibrium model is presented to analyze the short-term effects of reduced costs on price formation, inter-regional cereal trade, and farmers' and traders' storage strategies. Our results show that the high expectations with regard to the direct effects of cost reductions on food prices and food availability require some nuance. The effects of a reduction of transport costs will be small. Moreover, also the unintended negative consequences on the competitive position of farmers and traders in other regions that do not profit from road construction should be taken into account. Finally, it is concluded that only if transport and transaction costs are reduced simultaneously, will both the consumers and farmers benefit significantly.     

玉米的常规储存与管理探讨

为玉米安全度过保管期,保持原有物理性质,延缓玉米的卫生品质指标的下降.根据玉米的储藏特点以及每段时期的保管方法和玉米入库时期的操作情况,总结出玉米的周期保管经验,提出了玉米质量管理的基本要求,包括:把好入库质量关、选择入库时机、粮情检查及粮堆发热诊断等.管理措施的实施有效地减少了玉米的保管损耗,起到了降本增效的目的.     

Price dynamics in the Bangladesh rice market: implications for public intervention

In this paper, the price dynamics of a rice market are examined using dynamic programming techniques. The model is parameterised to the case of Bangladesh and thus represents the situation of a very poor country which has characteristically high price elasticity (due to income effects) and high storage and interest costs. The incentives for private sector storage and its impact on price stability are examined. Various options for public intervention in the storage sector are also explored, including price ceiling schemes and subsidisation of storage costs. Results show that interventions that remove private disincentives (such as storage subsidies) are much cheaper than direct intervention by government, but the impact on the probability distribution of prices is quite different. The effect of trade on the probability distribution of prices is also examined.     

DEREGULATION AND EFFICIENCY IN GRAIN TRANSPORT

In this paper, it is argued that removing restrictions on road transport will not be sufficient to encourage efficiency improvements in grain freight industry while rail authorities continue to operate as public monopolies. This is because of the structure of costs in the grain freight industry, which imply that road transport cannot compete with rail transport in areas where road is the more efficient mode. While the tendency for a regulated monopoly to cross-subsidise inefficient operations is common place, the focus in this analysis is on the nature of the cross-subsidy in the grain freight industry, and shows that it is a type of cross-subsidy that is well hidden by aggregation. A model of investment in a rail network is presented where the monopoly power afforded to the rail industry is shown to be due to economies of traffic density. A case study of the grain rail network in Western Australia is presented where it is shown that the rail authority has been able to maintain very uneconomic sections of rail line, despite the introduction of road competition and apparently competitive pricing practices.     

仓储小麦品质变化监控检测研究现状及进展

小麦仓储过程中品质会发生一系列的变化,保持其品质新鲜,控制和减缓粮食品质劣变,不用或少用化学熏蒸药剂,为消费者提供绿色放心粮食,是中国粮食仓储行业目前面临的一项紧迫任务.文章对气调储粮、温湿调控、智能监控、害虫检测、菌群检测等储粮检测方法方式进行了系统阐述分析,综述了仓储小麦品质劣变监控检测的研究进展,并结合当前存在的...     

高大平房仓储粮减损增效探索

高大平房仓储粮第一年秋、冬低温季节利用小功率风机进行下行式机械通风降低基础粮温;储存稳定期在确保储存安全的前提下,进入第2年、第3年秋冬季节则采用自然通风;气温上升季节对仓房实施隔热密闭、仓顶喷淋等一系列控温措施,在低能耗的情况下,可有效控制粮温,且大大减少了因通风产生水分散失而造成的储粮损耗.经过3年的储藏,损耗率低至1.42‰,且稻谷品质达到要求,降低储粮保管费用.