A Note on the Stock Market Reaction to Dividend Announcements

In this paper, we examine the stock market reaction to dividend announcements. A sample of dividend increases and decreases is partitioned by payout ratio increases and decreases. Previous research has examined the differential reaction to payout ratio increases and decreases only for dividend increases. In addition to an event study, cross-sectional regressions are estimated using the percent changes in payout ratio and dividend to explain abnormal returns. We conclude that payout ratio changes appear to be only an artifact of an earnings stream that is more variable than the dividend stream, rather than revealing any significant shifts in managerial policy.     

Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements

This paper investigates the information content of options trading prior to dividend change announcements. I find a positive (negative) relation between pre‐announcement abnormal implied volatility (IV) spread (abnormal IV skew) and cumulative abnormal stock returns around dividend change announcements. The predictive power of informed options trading is stronger for announcements of dividend reduction and when the options market is more liquid relative to the stock market and weaker when information has already been incorporated in the stock market. The predictability of informed options trading is robust to a placebo test and alternative measures of informed options trading. Overall results suggest that informed options trading predicts dividend change announcement returns.     

Insider Trading around Dividend Announcements: Theory and Evidence

The informational role of strategic insider trading around corporate dividend announcements is studied based on the efficient equilibrium in a signalling model with endogenous insider trading. Insider trading immediately prior to the announcement of dividend initiations has significant explanatory power. For firms with insider selling prior to the dividend initiation announcement, the excess returns are negative and significantly lower than for the remaining firms (with no insider trading or just insider buying) as implied by our model. Another implication is that dividend increases may elicit a positive or negative stock price response depending on the firm's investment opportunities.     

Prior Information and the Market Reaction to Dividend Changes

We investigate two hypotheses regarding the information content of dividend change announcements. The first is that the importance of information signaled by a dividend change depends on the reliability of earnings forecasts existing before the dividend announcement. The second hypothesis is that the stock price reaction to dividend change announcements is related to earnings forecast error as of the time of the dividend announcement. Our results reveal that dividend increases convey more information for firms in which financial analysts least accurately predict earnings. The results also indicate that dividend increase and decrease announcements provide market participants with information which, on average, allows them to differentiate between firms on the basis of future earnings realizations. These differential information effects are shown to be robust to price, size, dividend yield, and overinvestment effects.     

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected aggregate discount rates and, specifically, that good earnings news is associated with a positive shock to required returns. Consistent with this interpretation we find that Treasury bond rates and implied future inflation expectations respond directly to earnings news. We also find some evidence that the negative relation between earnings news and market return persists beyond the immediate announcement period, suggesting that market participants do not immediately fully impound these future market return implications of aggregate earnings news.     

上市公司立案公告的市场反应及其含义

以往关于我国上市公司违反法规行为给投资者带来的财富损失的文献基本都以监管机构处罚公告作为事件研究的原点,而未考察处罚公告之前的另一项重要事件:立案公告。我们发现,在证监会处罚公告附近的市场反应约为-2%(这与以往文献一致),而立案公告附近的市场负反应则高达-6%左右。这意味着仅关注处罚公告事件将明显低估投资者的实际财富损失。在尝试解释立案公告日附近市场反应的截面差异时,我们发现立案公告前最近年度的盈余管理幅度越大,市场反应越负面,这意味着投资者在面临模糊信息时可能参考了此前的会计信息质量进行投资决策。我们还讨论了本文证据对我国证券市场虚假陈述行为的民事诉讼制度的含义。     

现金股利政策、内部控制与市场反应

本文选取2007-2016年沪深两市A股公司为样本,按内部控制质量高低分为两组,分别检验市场对现金股利分配力度的反应。结果表明,在内部控制质量较低组,现金股利分配力度与累计超额收益正相关;而在内部控制质量较高组,两者不存在显著关系。进一步分析产品市场竞争和产权性质后发现,该效应主要存在于产品市场竞争激烈组和国有企业组。因此,本文认为,投资者对不同内部控制质量企业实施的现金股利政策存在差异化反应,该结论对管理层和监管层具有一定的指导意义。     

Tobin's q-Ratio and Market Reaction to Capital Investment Announcements

There is a significant positive relation between Tobin's q-ratio and the magnitude of stock market reaction to capital investment announcements. The findings have the following implications for capital investment theory: (i) The results provide evidence substantiating the link between the q-ratio and real investment for industrial firms. For public utilities however, no such link exists, (ii) The study finds that average q and marginal q are correlated but the relation is somewhat more complicated than simple equality as assumed by numerous empirical studies. (iii) The findings suggest that investors can use average Tobin's q-ratio to identify companies with profitable real capital investment opportunities.     

Insider Trading and Firm Performance Following Open Market Share Repurchase Announcements

The long‐run performance of equity securities subsequent to announcements of open market repurchases (OMR) remains a contentious topic. In this paper we propose the “dichotomous expectations hypothesis” which posits that insider trading following share repurchase announcements reveals private information concerning the future operating performance of announcing firms. In particular, insider abnormal purchases (abnormal sales) should predict an improvement (decline) in operating performance that leads to higher (lower) long‐run stock returns. Our hypothesis offers a credible economic link between insider trading and subsequent long‐run stock performance through the intervening variable of operating performance. The empirical results show consistency with this linkage.     

The Role of Default Risk in Determining the Market Reaction to Debt Announcements

The stock price reaction to straight debt announcements is examined by differentiating firms on the basis of any subsequent change in their overall default risk. Results indicate that firms that will within six months of straight debt announcements undergo debt rating downgrades experience significant negative abnormal stock returns at the time of the new debt announcements, while firms with bond ratings that are later upgraded exhibit significant positive abnormal returns. Multiple regression analysis shows these results to be robust to the influence of filing size, tax shield effects, relative pre-announcement long-term debt levels, and subordination effects.     

Merger Announcements and Trading

We test whether an increase either in informed trades or in large liquidity trades leads to greater correlation of trading volume across markets. We confirm that both trading volume and positive returns of target companies are abnormally high before merger announcements. We find a statistically significant increase in the correlation between New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq/regional trading volume before merger announcements. Furthermore, after merger announcements, we find evidence of both large liquidity trading and a statistically significant increase in the correlation of trading volume across markets.     

Market Behavior of Institutional Investors around Bankruptcy Announcements

This paper examines, using proprietary ASX data containing institutional holdings, if institutional investors exit en mass prior to announcements of financial distress. Evidence indicates that while some institutional investors exit the stock, the withdrawal is gradual, commencing approximately 115 days prior to event. This is driven by active institutional investors reacting to the release of the financially distressed companies’ last publicly released financial reports. There is no significant decline in institutional holdings before announcements; most institutional investors hold financially distressed shares through to failure. There is evidence that the lack of disclosure drives the increase in information asymmetry prior to company failure.     

Dividend Announcements and Changes in Beta

This study examines changes in beta risk around dividend announcement dates. The evidence shows that beta changes are strongly influenced by the changing behavior of large and small betas. This implies that researchers who attribute risk changes to specific announcements may need to control their research design for regression order bias. Further research may also be needed to ascertain whether or not this regression order bias plays a significant role in the estimation of abnormal returns in event studies.     

Stock Return Volatility and Dividend Announcements

This paper is based on models presented in Kim and Verrecchia (1991a, 1991b) relating to share price volatility and the quality of announcements. It investigates the differences in informational quality between dividend cuts and dividend rises, and between interim and final dividend announcements. The results indicate that when dividends are cut, the interim announcement is perceived as being more significant than the final, whereas the reverse is true when dividends are increased. Implied standard deviations suggest that volatility is expected to peak on the day of final announcements. A peak is also expected after interim announcements of a cut in dividend, but not after announcements of an increase.     

Incentive Compensation and the Stock Price Response to Dividend Increase Announcements

Linking executive compensation to stock price performance is predicted to decrease the usual positive price response to dividend increases for two reasons. One, increasing pay‐performance sensitivity (PPS) exacerbates managers' optimistic bias regarding future firm performance, reducing the credibility of dividend signals. Two, increasing pay‐performance sensitivity reduces the need for dividends as a means of reducing agency costs. Consistent with behavioral and agency theories of corporate finance, we find that price response does decrease as pay‐performance sensitivity increases and that this effect is concentrated in firms with low market‐to‐book ratios. Additional findings are most consistent with the agency cost explanation.     

Relation Between Predisclosure Information Asymmetry and Trading Volume Reaction Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

This study investigates the effects of differences in predisclosure information asymmetry on trading volume reaction during quarterly earnings announcements. The analyses show that trading volume reaction to quarterly earnings announcements is positively related to the level of predisclosure information asymmetry and to the magnitude of the price reaction to the announcements. These results are consistent with Kim and Verrecchia's (1991a) theoretical trading volume proposition, and with Atiase and Bamber's (1994) tests of the proposition based on annual earnings announcements. This study also provides evidence on the relation of predisclosure information asymmetry and trading volume before and after quarterly earnings announcements.     

投资者意见分歧视角下盈余公告的市场反应经验研究

本文从投资者意见分歧角度出发,研究盈余发布前后一段时间内中国股票价格行为特征,并在此基础上首次考虑公告所引发的二次意见分歧对市场反应产生的影响。研究结果表明意见分歧越高的公司,股价在公告前高估情况越严重、在公告时的下降幅度越大,二次意见分歧高的股票其超额收益较大。此外,本文还发现中国股市普遍存在盈余公告提前泄露,股价的收益特征较国外有所前移,通过进一步分析发现市场知道坏消息的时间要早于好消息。     

Does Shareholder Composition Matter? Evidence from the Market Reaction to Corporate Earnings Announcements

We examine whether institutional ownership composition is related to parameters of the market reaction to negative earnings announcements. When firms report earnings below analysts' expectations, the stock price response is more negative for firms with higher levels of ownership by momentum or aggressive growth investors. There is no evidence, however, that these institutions cause an “overreaction” to earnings news. Ownership structure is also related to trading volume and to stock price volatility on days around earnings announcements. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the composition of institutional shareholders effects stock price behavior around the release of corporate information.     

Market Reaction to Multiple Contemporaneous Earnings Signals: Earnings Announcements and Future Earnings Guidance

We examine market reactions to contemporaneous announcements of current earnings and future earnings guidance for evidence on how investors trade off relevance and reliability. Current earnings are more reliable than future earnings guidance, but future earnings guidance may be more relevant for predicting future performance. We find that current earnings are more strongly associated with announcement-period returns than concurrently disclosed future earnings guidance, consistent with investors’ relative preference for reliability. We find similar return reactions to stand-alone earnings and to earnings released with guidance. In contrast, return reactions are lower for guidance announced simultaneously with current earnings than for stand-alone guidance.