技术进步的恐慌与诱惑

从上个世纪的80年代开始，我们感受到了前所未有的社会变化，人们的生活发生了巨变，以“芯片”作为主要电子元件的设备充斥着人类的生活。我们传输信息的速度加快了，我们收集、整理信息的速度也加快了，我们的管理水平提高了，我们工作的速度也提高了，我们对世界改变的速度也加快了。人们感受到了由于技术进步带来的好处，工资的待遇提高了，汽车、洋房增多了，人们所需的日常物品丰富了，人们休闲娱乐的方式增多了。人们的寿命增长了。     

企业家们的新年祝福

商场在疯狂甩卖,其降幅和冷清堪比非典时期;出租车的空位多了,地铁公交却更拥挤了;公司的年终奖打折了,企业都在喊亏损;华尔街爆发危机了,全球的股市都在跌;公司晚会不办了,出国旅游取消了,皮草名车也不买了……经济危机真的来了。企业家们受影响了么?显然不会例外。央行行长的头发都白了,而更多企业家的头发都掉光了;有的企业家绝处逢生,东山再起,而有的从云端落下,光环尽失;有的企业家卷款逃     

卡内基的墓志铭

今天的院务会上,讲了当前和今后一段的工作,讲了干部管理问题、讲了带队伍和落实责任的问题、也讲了思想政治工作和分配问题,表扬了好的现象、做法和苗头,也批评了一些不良现象。晚饭后我思索着一天的事情和自己讲过的话,突然想起了一个从书本上熟悉了的人,他就是卡内基。在19世纪后半叶的美国,随着现代工业的崛起,不但造就了大量的商品和财富,也造就了一批富可     

刘晓光：生命中无法忘却的天山

“刚当兵就想跑,到了兰州发了一件棉大衣,毛的,给了一缸子肉,我觉得可以了,吃饱了,也够本了,想回家了,就准备逃跑了,实际上还是怕吃苦呗。”     

标准体系方法论中程序模块的理论和方法

本文对标准体系方法论中核心程序模块的理论和方法进行了深入的分析,研究建立了标准体系目标分析的纵横目标分析方法,建立了标准体系的三维目标空间,构建了结构化和概念化的标准对象系统,建立了目标关联的标准需求分析方法,定位了标准适用性分析的对象和判据项目,在标准体系结构设计方面引入了标准体系拓扑结构,丰富了标准体系结构设计的选择,给出了技术标准、管理标准、工作标准区分的要点,制定了标准体系表的编制方法,确定了标准体系研究报告和编制说明的编写方法等,明确了标准体系构建的成果形式。     

丘吉尔庄园 做一名优雅快乐的“乡下人”

有人说,古罗马人学会了奢华,就有了名利的庄园：英国人看透了工业,就有了乡村的庄园;俄国人得到了农奴,就有了贵族的庄园;法国人创造了葡萄酒,就有了飘满酒吞的庄园。     

盛名之下的执着——广州地产二十年健康发展高峰论坛纪实——铸就辉煌 再创未来

广州地产二十年的发展，改变了广州的形象，创造了一个良好的投资环境，提高了广州市的城市品位，提升了老百姓的生活品质，使广大的老百姓从中得到了许许多多的实惠。”     

品德品质品牌——企业成功的三大法宝访石家庄安延汽车服务中心总经理:李毅

人物背景 1996年,技校出身的李毅创建了石家庄安延汽车服务中心,经过12年的发展,拥有了一流的配套设备和先进技术,树立了以人为本的管理理念,组建了专业的团队队伍,完善了企业文化.     

把引力接到新的空间

卡缪搬家了。马奎斯搬家了。卡尔维诺搬家了。莫内搬家了。林布阑搬家了。毕加索搬家了。瑞典KOSTA BODA彩色玻璃搬家了。英国WEDGWOOD骨瓷搬家了。法国HEDIARD咖啡搬家了。诚品敦南店搬家了。写下以上文字的许舜英搬家了。     

略论我国城镇住宅业发展模式的转变

近十多年来．我国城镇住宅业发展已经取得了举世瞩目的成就：一是许多居民不同程度改善了居住条件，二是拉动了经济增长．推动了几十个行业的发展，增加了财政收入，三是促进了劳动就业，四是改变了城市形象。在取得重大成就的同时．也产生了一系列问题：一是房价持续上涨，过分脱离了大多数居民收入水平，使许多住房困难家庭看不到改善住房的希望；     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Analysis of high dimensional multivariate stochastic volatility models

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation and comparison of flexible, high dimensional multivariate time series models with time varying correlations. The model proposed and considered here combines features of the classical factor model with that of the heavy tailed univariate stochastic volatility model. A unified analysis of the model, and its special cases, is developed that encompasses estimation, filtering and model choice. The centerpieces of the estimation algorithm (which relies on MCMC methods) are: (1) a reduced blocking scheme for sampling the free elements of the loading matrix and the factors and (2) a special method for sampling the parameters of the univariate SV process. The resulting algorithm is scalable in terms of series and factors and simulation-efficient. Methods for estimating the log-likelihood function and the filtered values of the time-varying volatilities and correlations are also provided. The performance and effectiveness of the inferential methods are extensively tested using simulated data where models up to 50 dimensions and 688 parameters are fit and studied. The performance of our model, in relation to various multivariate GARCH models, is also evaluated using a real data set of weekly returns on a set of 10 international stock indices. We consider the performance along two dimensions: the ability to correctly estimate the conditional covariance matrix of future returns and the unconditional and conditional coverage of the 5% and 1% value-at-risk (VaR) measures of four pre-defined portfolios.     

公路工程施工组织设计探析

近些年,国家对基础性建设的投入越来越大,我们的公路建设也日益增多。公路工程是一项综合性、系统性较强的工程,是集路基、路面、路线、桥涵、隧道等于一体的综合体系。随着经济社会的发展和施工工艺的不断进步,人们对公路工程的要求也更加严格。为了保证公路建设的正常施工,就需要工程设计按时按量完成。而如何处理好质量与工期的矛盾则是公路设计者面临的难题。本文对公路工程设计的重要性,步骤等进行一个分析研究。     

The Geography of Innovation in China and India

The BRICS countries in general, and China and India in particular, are now widely regarded as the areas of the world likely to challenge the economic leadership of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). A large part of this challenge will come from rapid technological catch‐up by China and India. Yet, despite a recent rise in interest, there is limited knowledge about how and where innovation takes place in these two leading emerging countries and to what extent the Chinese and Indian territorial systems of innovation differ from those in the EU or the US. In this article we explore the geography of innovation in China and India, concentrating on understanding key territorial‐level innovation trends by country, region and technology field, using the US and the EU as benchmarks. We find significant contrasts between the geography of innovation in China and India and that of the US and the EU. First, the degree of concentration of innovative activities in both countries is extremely high. Levels of agglomeration of innovation in the coastal provinces of China, as well as in Delhi and the South of India, significantly exceed the levels of agglomeration found in the USA and the EU. Secondly, China has witnessed a more rapid increase in the degree of concentration of innovation than India. We posit that the differences in the geography of innovation between, on the one hand, China and India and, on the other hand, between these countries and the developed world are rooted in different institutional settings, different systems of innovation and different national innovation strategies.     

Statistical Inference under Symmetry

We explore the consequences of adjoining a symmetry group to a statistical model. Group actions are first induced on the sample space, and then on the parameter space. It is argued that the right invariant measure induced by the group on the parameter space is a natural non-informative prior for the parameters of the model. The permissible sub-parameters are introduced, i.e., the subparameters upon which group actions can be defined. Equivariant estimators are similarly defined. Orbits of the group are defined on the sample space and on the parameter space; in particular the group action is called transitive when there is only one orbit. Credibility sets and confidence sets are shown (under right invariant prior and assuming transitivity on the parameter space) to be equal when defined by permissible sub-parameters and constructed from equivariant estimators. The effect of different choices of transformation group is illustrated by examples, and properties of the orbits on the sample space and on the parameter space are discussed. It is argued that model reduction should be constrained to one or several orbits of the group. Using this and other natural criteria and concepts, among them concepts related to design of experiments under symmetry, leads to links towards chemometrical prediction methods and towards the foundation of quantum theory.     

基于模型分析的液压伺服系统性能参数预测

为了提高液压伺服系统的控制精度,文章对液压伺服系统中的一些非线性参数进行了预测与估计。参数估计之前,首先对目标液压工作系统进行了建模与参数化描述,抽取了其控制和工作模型,计算并推导了模型中主要的液压参数直接的数学关系,如液压受力分析、受力传递函数、噪声信号过滤函数等。在此基础上,采用最小二乘估计算法对液压伺服系统中的非线性参数进行预测,给出了详细的参数分析过程和预测参数推导过程,建立了主要参数的估计计算公式。最后,对所估计的非线性参数进行了仿真和测试。结果表明,文章所选择的参数预测结果与实际的运行结果基本吻合,预测算法参数估计误差小。     

电子音乐流派的社会变革(英文)

从社会和政治变化、电子音乐流派的发展,形成了电子音乐,科学和技术的发展对电子音乐有重大的影响。他们是四个不同历史时期的发展——未来派,法西斯主义,达达派、电子音乐的时期。从最早使用:麦架,嘘声,窃窃私语,爆炸等。音乐和表达感情的表现,在阶级斗争,政治变革和经济危机、发展迅速的电子音乐,用在许多不同的零件,例如播放音乐、电影、电视等,都成了一个必不可少的组成部分的音乐市场。     

科技是绿色建筑发展的基础

近年来,全球气候恶化,温室气体效应危害了全人类的生存环境。随着我国城市化进程的加速,相应的建筑物和设施将大幅增加,建筑能耗随之加大。一种能节约能源及资源、减轻环境负荷的绿色建筑应运而生,成为我国建设小康社会的必由之路。文章认为,日新月异的科技进步必然是绿色建筑发展的坚实基础和唯一途径。     

Building resilience for sustainability of MSMEs post COVID-19 outbreak: An Indian handicraft industry outlook

The handicraft business constitutes concept selling rather than mere product selling, which is highly dependent on demand. Handicrafts' Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an expanding market in developed countries. The impact of the pandemic on this industry is severe due to the industry's informal nature and seasonal demand. The survival and resilience of these handicraft MSMEs face many challenges in the post-COVID-19 outbreak. The focus of the present study is to understand and analyze the key challenges for building resilience in handicraft MSMEs by scrutinizing the existing literature and interactions with stakeholders. EFA and the Grey DEMATEL approach are used to analyze the challenges for the adoption of resilience. EFA is used to categorize the challenges into various dimensions. The study has divided the challenges for the inclusion of resilience into survivable, sustainable, and viable categories using EFA to plan for short- and long-term business growth. Grey DEMATEL is being utilized for understanding these contextual relationships for each resilience dimension. Grey systems theory is a methodology that enables the incorporation of improbability and vagueness into the analysis. Findings of the study revealed the influencing challenges for each of the dimensions such as competition from machine-made products, insufficient government support and incentives for export, and inefficient managerial concern and response to internationalization as the prominent challenges. The results of this study illustrate the causal relationships amongst the identified resilience challenges to the various stakeholders. These findings offer practical insights for the government to allocate resources and impose measures to ensure resilience, as well as understanding the cause-effect relationship. Managerial implications and Policy insights for building the resilience of handicraft MSMEs are discussed in detail.     

中国行业报营销策略研究

文中立足中国行业报现状,存在的问题及原因,提出中国行业报营销策略的研究.通过中国行业报理论的四要素阐述.根据现代市场营销理论的研究成果.把商品和服务整体地销售给消费者的一系列经营管理活动,展现了行业报面临的形势和挑战.文中针对行业报面临的形势、挑战和现状,提出了行业报的发展趋势及主要对策.