Human capital,innovation, and growth

This paper explores the interaction between human capital and innovation in the process of economic growth. Using a model of endogenous growth, we focus on how taxes and other policy instruments affect the incentives to invest in human capital. In contrast to many other growth models we find that the taxation of human capital has a substantial negative effect on its accumulation. This in turn reduces innovation and, consequently, the income growth rate. More surprisingly, other policies that are intended to stimulate growth may have opposing effects on innovation and the accumulation of human capital. For example, while subsidies to research and to intermediate inputs do have positive effects on innovation and growth, they lead to a lower stock of human capital, in the empirically relevant case when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is low.     

Monetary Policy in the Industrial World: Reflections on some Basic Issues

Abstract

This paper is a general assessment of monetary policy in major OECD countries during the 1990s. Within a simple policy framework that combines money growth, nominal income, and an open economy IS-LM type Mundell-Fleming model, the paper discusses the major strands in the conduct of monetary policy in developed industrial economies. It throws light on such problems as “rules versus discretion”, management of exchange rates, the effect of monetary changes on income and prices, and the rupture of monetary policy with other instruments of economic policy that also affect the economy.     

经济增长对我国农民收入影响的实证研究

本文采用1997～2009年我国27个省、自治区的分省面板数据,研究了区域经济增长对各省农民收入的影响。得到结论认为:①经济增长较快的省份,农民收入相对较高。长期来看区域经济增长速度提高1%,农户人均收入增加6.79%;②各省经济增长对区域农民收入增长的正向影响有一定的滞后性,前者对后者的滞后影响效应至少可以持续5年。     

新型职业农民培育政策实施效果研究——基于四川省农业与农民的双视角

新型职业农民培育是致力于建设新时代新农村的重要途径,也是实施乡村振兴战略的必然要求。以四川省2012~2019年的面板数据为基础,从农业经济和农民收入增长的双视角切入,使用双重差分模型控制相关变量,消除样本内生性问题。通过分析四川省新型职业农民培育对农业和农民的政策效果发现:政策试点区和非试点区的农业经济增长差距较小为0.2%,在2014年后增加为1.1%,增长0.9%;2014年前,政策试点区和非试点区的农民收入增长差距为-1.3%,在2014年后增加为12.5%,培育政策对区域农民收入增长促进效果显著,增长11.2%,基本能够判断现行的新型职业农民培育政策是有效的。     

Reducing China's regional disparities: Is there a growth cost?

While China's growth has been spectacular over the past 30 years, it has masked growing underlying disparities in the regional distribution of income with coastal provinces growing at a much faster rate than the rest of the country, exacerbating already marked differences in per capita income. Policy focused on addressing these growing disparities has had to face the possibility that spreading growth more evenly around the country will require a sacrifice of the national growth rate. Yet there is almost no empirical evidence that this is so and, if it is, how big the required sacrifice is. This paper contributes to filling this gap by analyzing the relationship between aggregate growth and the inequality of regional output distribution. We use a VAR model to simulate the effects over time on growth of a reduction in inequality and also the effects on inequality of an increase in growth. We find, first, that in the long run a more equal distribution can be obtained without a growth sacrifice. Second, in the short run a reduction in inequality reduces growth. Third, in the short and long runs an increase in growth actually reduces inequality.     

Economic Growth and Income Inequality: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Investigation

This paper empirically investigates the effect of income inequality on economic growth using extended panel data covering a broad range of developing and developed countries. We use system generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques in a dynamic panel analysis, which alleviates the possible positive bias in difference GMM due to the persistence of lagged dependent variables as instruments. We find strong evidence of a negative effect on growth from income inequality, which contradicts the findings of Forbes [2000, September. A reassessment of the relationship between inequality and growth, American Economic Review, 90(4), pp. 869–887] and Li and Zou [1998, October. Income inequality is not harmful for growth: Theory and evidence, Review of Development Economics, 2(3), pp. 318–34]. Further analyses using combined Gini coefficients show that the difference can be overall attributed to the problem of omitted control variables and the differences in how the variations in inequality across countries are reflected. We also find that the negative effects of inequality on economic growth can be of great significance when using a sample of less developed countries or more recent inequality data set.     

市场化进程、环境规制与经济增长——基于东、中、西部地区的经验研究

利用1999-2012年我国省际面板数据,将环境规制工具细化为命令控制型、市场激励型和公众参与型,实证分析了市场化进程、各类环境规制工具对经济增长的影响,以及各地区市场化进程如何影响市场激励型环境规制工具对经济增长的作用。研究结果表明,市场化进程对东、中、西部经济增长的促进作用都显著为正,但是各类环境规制工具对各地区经济增长的影响具有显著的差异性,各地区的市场化程度对市场激励型环境规制工具促进经济增长的影响同样表现出显著的差异性。因此建议根据不同环境规制工具对不同地区经济增长的影响,以及各地区市场化进程下市场激励型环境规制工具对经济增长的影响,制定与各地区经济发展状况、市场化进程相适应的差异性环境规制政策,以促进环境规制与经济增长的协调发展。     

International trade and economic growth: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach

The purpose of this work is to study the impact of trade openness on the economic growth of the countries bordering the Mediterranean using a panel of eight countries from 1975 to 2016. We apply ARDL panel which is a technique recently developed. We study the effects of openness to international trade on economic growth while incorporating economic policy variables. The results show that the variables of commercial and financial openness favor economic growth. The free trade agreements that the European Union has signed with certain countries in the Mediterranean basin are designed above all to encourage greater regional economic integration and an increase in their potential growth. Therefore, our findings show that the financial sector is slow to affect economic growth in these countries. This study reveals that human capital and the investment rate support the economic growth of our sample. In addition, we conclude that a process of economic convergence has begun in these countries. A causal analysis was carried out we found an unidirectional causality ranging from economic growth to trade openness.

     

Consumption,Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract

The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.     

经济复苏中的消费扩大与就业促进

国际金融危机爆发后欧美一些国家的负债消费模式正在发生重大改变,我国实现经济全面复苏将更有赖于扩大内需并着眼于消费的全面启动与持续扩大。就业、收入、消费存在着内在的联系,促进就业进而提高劳动者收入应成为未来宏观经济政策的优先选择。应在城乡统筹发展和区域协调发展、支持中小企业发展和个人创业、加大人力资本投资与城乡社会保障体系建设等方面做出努力。     

Understanding openness and productivity growth in China: An empirical study of the Chinese provinces

This paper investigates the effects of openness on China's regional productivity growth. We build a model of technology diffusion in which follower economies achieve productivity growth by taking advantage of technology spillovers from the world technology frontier. We hypothesize that China's regional productivity growth is a positive function of regional openness and a negative function of the current level of regional productivity. Empirical analysis in this paper focuses on how openness affects productivity growth in the Chinese provinces. We examine two effects of openness on regional productivity growth in China: the direct growth effect and the convergence effect. By using a variety of panel data regression techniques, we show that the direct growth effect of openness is the main effect while the convergence effect is insignificant. The findings of this paper lend strong support to the claim that the opening-up of China promotes the country's economic growth.     

Human and knowledge capital: A contribution to the empirics of state economic growth

Considerable debate persists over the prospects for regional economic convergence and the nature of economic growth in a sub-national context. Although endogenous growth theories have been invoked to explain persistent regional income gaps and related empirical phenomena, traditional models have yet to be fully discredited. This paper utilizes a more complete specification of a traditional growth model in an effort to better explain variations in regional per capita income and growth levels. The authors' effort involves a panel analysis of U.S. Gross State Product data that enables controlling for variations in underlying production technologies. They focus on the important role of both human and knowledge capital in specifying regional dimensions of productivity and growth. The use of alternative and unique definitions for knowledge capital inputs leads to an improved empirical understanding of the regional growth process.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Nov. 11–14, 1999.     

基于半参数分位数回归模型的服务业发展水平影响因素研究

利用2020年全国329个地级市相关统计数据,建立半参数分位数回归模型,研究地区经济发展水平、城镇化率、政府作用、收入水平对不同发展水平的服务业影响效应。研究表明：地区经济发展水平与收入水平对各层次服务业发展均具有显著正向作用,但收入水平的促进作用会随着服务业发展水平的提高而减弱;城镇化率处于65%～80%时,对服务业具有逐步增强的促进作用;政府作用在促进服务业增长方面促进作用较弱。     

Government spending and the distribution of economic growth

In the United States, total government spending, and especially government social spending, has increased greatly over the last 50 years. What effect this has had on economic growth is a subject of intense debate among politicians, policymakers, and economists. However, there has been less attention paid to the distributional effects of government spending even though economic inequality has grown greatly over the last generation and much social spending is at least indirectly intended to reduce inequality. The effects of government social spending in the United States on growth in family income at deciles of the income distribution were estimated. The results suggested that social spending but not non‐social spending was likely to increase growth in family income per capita measured over 10‐year intervals. The largest effects of social spending were for deciles below the median income. At no point in the distribution does social spending have a negative effect.     

财政转移支付、地方政府治理和制造业增长

文章对财政转移支付影响地方经济增长的一种可能的机制进行检验,即转移支付通过恶化地方治理水平进而对地方经济增长产生负面影响。文章基于利用1999～2007年各省制造业细分行业面板数据,运用计量模型进行实证分析,发现在财政转移支付占财政支出比重越高的省份,制造业中对治理水平要求越高的行业增长越慢。这个结果证实了转移支付通过恶化地方政府治理,从而不利于制造业增长的假说。研究认为,更多的转移支付并不一定会导致更快的经济增长,如果没有良好的制度,转移支付还会对落后地区的经济增长产生负面影响。     

区域贸易协定如何影响FDI选择——基于三国自由资本模型的研究

本文以三国自由资本模型为基础,考察差异化收入水平和生产率条件下区域贸易协定对FDI流向和流量的影响。结果发现:(1)多数情况下,FDI会从区外向区内流动,更多流向区内高收入成员国。(2)当区域自由化程度越高,区内外国家劳动生产率差异越大,或区外国家收入水平越高时,有越多的FDI从区外流向区内;当区域自由化程度越高,区内外国家劳动生产率差异越大,或区内国家收入水平差异越大时,FDI的区内流量越大。基于此,本文指出:为了获取更多的国际生产资本,各国都应积极主动加入自由贸易协定;积极发展深度一体化的区域贸易协定;区内落后国家应高度关注成立区域贸易协定后的利益分配,提升劳动生产率有利于改善区内落后国家的生产效应。     

Family size,birth order and educational attainment: Evidence from China

Using Chinese Household Income Project survey data from 2013, this paper investigates the effects of family size and birth order on children's educational attainment. The endogeneity of family size is an important identification issue in the test of the quantity-quality tradeoff. We use variations in a mother's exposure to various phases of China's family planning policies by Hukou type, ethnicity and regional differences in fine rates as instruments to identify the causal effects of family size. We find that family size has a negative effect on children's education. Using family fixed effects model, we find a positive birth order effect. In addition, both the family size and birth order effects are more pronounced for families where first-born children are females than those where the first-borns are males. Birth order effect is more evident in financially constrained families.     

A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers

Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP growth, with exports and imports. Lastly, the varied qualitative and quantitative impact of volatility in imports and exports on income growth among the Asian Tigers provides further thought for policy making.     

中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内，GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区，在长期，西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用，中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。     

Education and growth: A simple model with complicated dynamics

We construct a simple model of education and growth in which children spend a fraction of their time and parents spend a fraction of their income on education. Both a strategic complementarity and an intergenerational externality are present. The interactions between each pair of consecutive generations lead to rich dynamics. We show that multiple growth equilibria arise, some of them periodic and some aperiodic. We also find a negative correlation between volatility and growth, without a one‐way causal relationship between the two being, necessarily, present. Rather, this negative correlation is driven by the structural characteristics of the economy.