Individual characteristics,behavioral biases,and attitudes toward foreign workers: Evidence from a survey in Japan

This study examines individual attitudes toward foreign workers jointly with their trade policy preferences based on a survey of more than 10,000 respondents in Japan. Our bivariate probit estimation results show that people influenced by status-quo bias or risk aversion tend to have significantly lower probability of supporting both foreign workers and imports. Individuals opposing foreign workers tend to have pessimistic views of the national economy's prospects and no personal acquaintance with foreigners. We also confirm the effects of standard variables, such as education and occupation. These findings suggest that wide-ranging measures are required for expanding support for foreign workers.     

Individual preferences on trade liberalization: evidence from a Japanese household survey

This paper studies an individual’s preference on trade liberalization using a Japanese household survey, the Keio Household Panel Survey. As a result, we show that preferences toward trade liberalization are affected by economic factors (income, gender, family, asset, and job status) as well as noneconomic factors (noncognitive factors and behaviroal biases). We find that male, educated, and people with smaller family prefer trade liberalization. Furthermore, people who prefer liberty to equality and have less local patriotism, tend to be positive to trade liberalization.

     

Effects of U.S. Trade Remedy Law Enforcement under Uncertainty: The Case of Steel

This paper investigates the impact of U.S. trade remedy law enforcement on import penetration of foreign-manufactured steel into the U.S. steel market. Given the quasi-judicial process for implementation of the two provisions relevant to U.S. steel imports, section 701 (countervailing duty) and section 731 (antidumping duty), I derive the probability-augmented model to be used as the theoretical basis for the research. The results obtained in this paper indicate that the trade remedy policy was effective. However, the elasticity-measured degree of effectiveness was small.     

Change of U.S.‐Russia relations after the September 11 terrorist attacks

This paper analyzes the changes of U.S.‐Russia relations after September 11. The analysis deals with the issues relating to both military and economic cooperation. In particular, this article focuses on examining the impact of the terrorist attacks on U.S.‐Russian relations. Specifically, the paper discusses the results of the visit of U.S. President Bush to Russia and its impacts on the relations between the two countries. First, the paper analyzes the U.S. position toward Russia under the Bush Administration before the terrorist attacks. Second, it looks at how Russia perceived and took advantage of the terrorist attacks to improve its relations with the United States. Third, it explores the nature of the quasi alliance between the United States and Russia. And finally, it examines the possibilities and limitations of the long‐term cooperation agreement between the U.S. and Russia from an economic and military perspective.     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

恐怖袭击、反恐行动与贸易效率:袭击目标异质性的视角

文章运用消除内生性的异质性随机前沿引力模型,实证分析了2005~2015年"中巴经济走廊"周边国家异质性恐怖袭击目标与贸易效率的因果关系,进一步检验了反恐行动在这一因果关系中的调节效应,借助局部散点回归拟合图和箱型估计量调节效应图对反恐行动调节效应的非线性问题做了适当的拓展性探究。研究表明:第一,从恐怖袭击目标异质性来看,全样本中贸易效率对上一年度"私人及财产"目标袭击的敏感度较强,而中国样本中贸易效率对上一年度"商业目标"袭击的敏感度较强;第二,反恐行动在全样本的"恐怖袭击-贸易效率"因果关系链条中发挥了显著调节效应,"私人及财产"目标袭击对贸易效率的条件边际效应低于"商业目标"袭击,这可能与地区内对前者投入的反恐资金与资源更多有关;第三,局部散点回归拟合图和箱型估计量调节效应图显示,恐怖袭击对贸易效率的条件边际效应具有非线性,应当谨慎解释模型中存在的交互效应。     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

The effects of Europe’s internal market program on production and trade: A first assessment

The Effects of Europe’s Internal Market Program on Production and Trade: A First Assessment. — The paper analyzes the extent of structural changes that have occurred inside the EC since the launching of the internal market program. The first part of the paper examines intersectoral shifts in the pattern of specialization within EC manufacturing and finds relatively little change from 1986 to 1992. The second analyzes the trade impact of the internal market program, and finds that internal and external trade creation have both prevailed. The third uses regression analysis to explain the share of intra-EC imports in total EC imports in 1986 and in 1992, and identifies the impact of the internal market program.     

International Trade and R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

A current concern for China's long‐term growth prospect is whether China can become an innovative economy and achieve industrial upgrading to compensate for the gradually declining competitiveness resulting from low‐cost labor. The present study examines this issue by exploring how trade participation impacts on the R&D investment of manufacturing firms through various channels. Merging China's Annual Manufacturing Survey Dataset and the Chinese Customs Dataset allows us to study such a relationship at the individual firm level. The empirical results suggest that channels such as geographical diversification of export markets, share of imports from high‐income countries, average unit value of imports, number of intermediate goods and capital goods imports, and the trade regime are significant factors that influence firm‐level R&D investment. The study discusses the policy implications of the empirical findings in relation to industrial and trade policies that may be potentially beneficial for China's transition towards an innovative economy.     

An Empirical Study of Suicide Terrorism: A Global Analysis

This paper provides the first venue‐based empirical investigation of the number and lethality of suicide terrorist attacks on a global scale. For 1998–2010, we assemble a data set of 2448 suicide terrorist incidents, drawn from the three main terrorist event databases, i.e., International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and RAND. Our data set distinguishes between domestic and transnational suicide terrorist missions. For the quantity of suicide terrorism, we apply zero‐inflated negative binomial panel (country‐year) estimation for country‐specific variables and negative binomial panel estimation for attack‐specific variables. We also present linear regression panel estimations for the impact of suicide terrorism in terms of casualties per attack. Economic, political, and military variables, at times, differentially influenced the two kinds of suicide terrorism. A host of policy conclusions are drawn from the empirical findings.     

Reputation and learning: Japanese car exports to the United States

This paper incorporates learning and reputation building into a simple dynamic stochastic model with asymmetric information. We use the model to study a bilateral trade flow influenced significantly by learning and reputation, namely U.S. imports of Japanese cars over the period 1961–2004. Numerical simulations replicate the trade flow in a robust fashion. Including the Voluntary Export Restraint in our simulations predicts U.S. imports decreased by 2.46 million cars over the years 1981–1984. Since learning and reputation building require time, predicted short run trade patterns can be quite different than those predicted in the long run. We apply this idea to understand the change in Japanese market share in the U.S. automobile market. We also explore the importance of sectorial differences in the speed of learning and reputation building on predicted trade patterns. Lastly, we examine how the extent of asymmetric information existing between importers and exporters changes under different trade policies.     

Factor adjustment implications of a free trade agreement between the United States and Thailand

Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may be experienced by U.S. and Thai industries from a proposed U.S.–Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–2008 period. Ten U.S. industries are found to be candidates for factor adjustment pressures based on past experiences. These industries account for 38% of all U.S. imports from Thailand and 4% of imports from all trading partners. Results also show that nine Thai industries face possible adjustment pressures. These industries account for 9% of Thai imports from the United States. An FTA should result in a larger increase in U.S. exports to Thailand than U.S. imports from Thailand because Thai exporters face much lower tariffs in the U.S. market than do U.S. exporters in the Thai market.     

Impacts of trade liberalisation on aggregate import in Bangladesh: An ARDL Bounds test approach

Bangladesh has been liberalising its trade regime extensively since 1992 in order to achieve higher trade performance and GDP growth. However, despite the long period of liberalisation, imports are still growing faster than exports, increasing the trade deficit. Trade liberalisation is considered a crucial contributory factor. The paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the aggregate import in Bangladesh, using the ARDL Bounds Test approach with annual time series data from 1972–1973 to 2004–2005. Empirical results suggest that trade liberalisation through reduction of the import duty rate increases the aggregate import substantially in the short run, but insignificantly in the long run. Trade liberalisation using simplification of non-tariff measures shows a significant but low positive impact on the aggregate import in the long run. Liberalisation interaction with price decreases imports slightly hence improves the trade balance, while interaction with income increases imports slightly hence worsens the trade balance. An increase in imports is mainly stimulated by an increase in income. Moreover, higher income elasticity compared to price elasticity indicates that an effort to maintain imports at the desired level by increasing import duty could be counter balanced and ineffective. Therefore, a consistent policy to promote not only consumption of domestically produced products, but investment, production, and backward linkage industries is essential in order to improve the trade balance and GDP growth in Bangladesh.     

Agricultural production and food consumption in China: A long-term projection

This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China's demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is to increase by 33% by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the “quality” gap in future Chinese food demand.     

中美反补贴争端的起源与发展趋势

随着中美两国贸易的快速发展,两国之间的贸易争端也日渐频繁,不断增加。中美两国有关反补贴争端就是近年来新产生的一种贸易争端。长期以来,美国一直奉行不对"非市场经济国家"适用反补贴法的政策,然而,在美国贸易保护政策进一步抬头、国会压力不断增大以及国内一些产业的产品竞争力不断减弱的背景下,美国政府首次对非市场经济国家的进口产品适用反补贴法。这一做法,必将使中美反补贴争端愈演愈烈。中国政府和企业必须高度重视,认真对待,决不能掉以轻心。     

Digital product imports and export product quality: Firm-level evidence from China

Based on the Statistical Classification of the Digital Economy and Its Core Industries (2021) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the information and communications technology products released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development to construct a digital product catalog manually, this paper analyzes the impact of digital product imports on Chinese firms' export product quality using a combined data set of the Annual Survey of Industrial Production and China Custom Records from 2000 to 2013. The results show that digital product imports have a significant positive effect on a firm's export product quality. To address potential endogeneity, this paper uses a series of instrumental variables (IVs) and constructs a multi-timing difference-in-differences model using the firm's first digital product import as exogenous shock, and finds strong supporting evidence. Digital product imports improve the quality of export products through three mechanisms: technology spillovers, productivity, and information-searching capabilities. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that digital product imports have greater impacts on foreign-owned and capital-intensive firms, and digital intermediate imports play a bigger role than do digital non-intermediate imports. The results of this paper have important implications for developing countries that wish to improve the quality of exports through digital trade.     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

Convergence in Revealed Preferences for Automobiles as Differentiated Goods: U.S. and OECD Countries: 1970–1999

Attributes of differentiated goods in personal consumption have both conceptual and policy importance in macroeconomic applications that include obsolescence rates of capital stock, the savings rate, and environmental issues. While there is both direct and indirect evidence of variation in preferences for these attributes across countries, there is also conjecture that recent global integration has reduced this variation. We examine convergence between the U.S. and four OECD countries in the levels of automobile attributes over the 1970–1999 period. Results of panel unit root tests with the U.S. as the comparison country showed convergence in the constructed measures of size, performance and efficiency. In pairwise comparisons between the U.S. and OECD countries, results of our model estimations indicated convergence in size and efficiency with estimated half lives to convergence of between four to six years. Disaggregating the definitional components of performance, results show convergence in horsepower when selected economic variables are controlled. We find that measures of trade, per capita income and price appear to be among the mechanisms through which increasing global integration relates to convergence. Directions for further study of convergence preferences for attribute profiles across countries are discussed.     

The trade balance effects of U.S. foreign direct investment in Mexico

This paper examines the effect of U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico on U.S. exports to and imports from Mexico. The rise of intrafirm exports and imports following U.S. FDI in Mexico suggests that FDI affects trade flows. Empirical estimation proceeds with tests for stationarity and cointegration. The finding of cointegration among the variables leads to estimation of the hypothesized relationships with a vector error-correction model. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition reveal that FDI leads to increased exports and imports during the time period considered.     

The welfare effects of U.S. antidumping duties

Antidumping duties are among the most frequently used nontariff barriers to trade. Despite this, empirical analysis of the welfare effects of antidumping duties has been very limited. This paper helps close this gap by computing the welfare effects of 30 U.S. antidumping duties. These effects are computed using a Dixit-Stiglitz type model of preferences in conjunction with data from the International Trade Commission. The paper finds that the import relief provided by antidumping duties is small in comparison to the losses imposed on U.S. consumers.