Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections,worldwide: 1972–2020

Oil demand in the road transportation section accounts for more than 50% of total world oil consumption amongst the whole sectors, including road, aviation, railway, waterways and international marine transportation. The high demand rate of oil makes this sector the main and major oil consumer in the world. The vehicle ownership or intensity of vehicles is one of the main factors which determines the development of oil demand in this major sector.Vehicle ownership (in 1000 population) is estimated using the nonlinear Gompertz model on the basis of pooled time series (1972–2020) and cross-sections data for 154 countries. Different saturation levels for the selected countries and over time horizon is calculated by adding specific demographic and geographic variables. Then, under two different scenarios – business as usual and policy scenario – we make projections of oil demand in the road transportation sector across 154 countries by using available data up to 2020.According to the results of the model, it is predicted that the number of world total vehicles will be approximately 1.5 times higher in 2020 than in 2008. Moreover, oil demand projections for road transportation over 2009–2020 show that under business as usual scenario, world oil demand will increase to 14,748 million barrel of oil equivalent until 2020 while under the policy scenario, which is based on the fuel efficiency improvement by 20% during a period of 10 years until 2020, world oil demand in the aforementioned sector will increase only to 11601 mboe until 2020.     

KVARTS - a quarterly model of the Norwegian economy

This paper presents the main characteristics of the first version of a quarterly 12 sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy. The general purpose of the project is to obtain a framework for quantitative analysis of the short-term development of the economy. Quarterly national accounts data constitute a main data source, but short- term statistics outside the national accounting system also play a significant role in the model structure. The model's main structure and basic theoretical properties are presented, selected estimation results for single equations are reported and some experiences from simulation experiments performed on selected model blocks and by means of the complete model are given.     

On the Cost of Opportunistic Behavior in the Public Sector: A General‐Equilibrium Approach

This paper studies the wasteful effect of bureaucracy on the economy by addressing the link between opportunistic behavior of government bureaucrats and the public sector wage bill. In particular, public officials are modeled as individuals competing for a larger share of those public funds. A simple extraction technology in the government administration is introduced in a standard real‐business‐cycle setup augmented with detailed public sector. The model is calibrated to German data for the period 1970–2007. The main findings are: (i) the model performs well vis‐à‐vis the data; (ii) due to the existence of a significant public sector wage premium and the high public sector employment, a substantial amount of working time is spent in opportunistic activities, which, in turn, leads to significant losses in terms of output; and (iii) the model‐based loss measures obtained for the EU‐12 countries are highly correlated to indices of bureaucratic inefficiency.     

Western Rules for Eastern Banking

The article outlines the most significant changes in the banking sector and traces its possible future path in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the context of competing banking models. The main conclusion is that despite the transition the orientation of the banking sector will be towards the government sector (including the central bank). The new network of financial interrelations that emerged during transition is characterised by the banking sector's significant net defensive position and creditor passivity. Although CEE countries are developing their financial systems in line with a universal banking model the aggregate balance sheets of their banking sectors reveal a structure that is more in line with other proposed models. Financial relations between households, the corporate sector and the state sector intermediated by the banking sector reveal a severe retreat of banks from the corporate sector in favour of maintenance of government and central bank operations.     

GENERAL PUBLIC LICENSING AND THE INTENSITY OF AGGREGATE SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT

We develop a theoretical model in which the sophistication of technologies improves over time due to research and development (R&D) undertaken by software developers in two sectors. In the commercial sector, R&D intensity is driven by economic incentives, whereas in the sector using the General Public License (GPL), it is driven by the preference-based labor supply of individuals. A higher amount of GPL labor allocation generates equilibrium effects that adversely affect commercial software development. When the degree of imitation in the GPL sector is relatively higher than in the commercial sector, or the commercial sector has increasing returns of a limited degree, the R&D intensity in the commercial sector would decline by more than any increases in R&D intensity in the GPL sector. Thus, aggregate R&D intensity in the long run would be reduced. Numerical simulation indicates that this outcome pertains under realistic parameter ranges.     

减免东盟农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.在Chingem模型的基础上,按照中国与东盟达成的"早期收获方案",模拟2006年减免东盟原六国农产品进口关税对中国宏观经济和产业的短期影响.研究表明,减免东盟六国农产品进口关税有利于我国经济增长,其中经济增长的动力来源于就业水平的提高;国内价格水平会下降,如CPI下降了0.11%;出口增长高于进口增长,贸易顺差有增加的趋势;促进了制造业的发展,其中纺织部门受益最大;羊毛部门受纺织业的拉动产出增长,而其它的农业和服务业部门影响轻微.     

Public sector motivation and development failures

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of the relationship between public sector motivation and development. In the model the public sector produces a public good and workers are heterogeneous in terms of public sector motivation (PSM). Wages in the private sector increase with the quality of the public good. In this context, public sector wage premia (PSWP) have two opposite effects: low PSWP helps screen workers with PSM into the public sector, while high PSWP helps motivate workers to be honest. Raising PSWP may not improve the quality of governance and multiple equilibria might arise. The model highlights that the relative importance of workers selection and provision of ”on the job” incentives in the public sector varies in systematic ways with wages in the private sector. We provide anecdotal and original empirical evidence consistent with the theoretical predictions and discuss some policy implications for public sector reforms in developing countries.     

BANK COMPETITION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Income inequality rises with financial development initially and then drops. We reach this conclusion by numerically solving a heterogeneous agent model parameterized to the Chinese economy. The model features a banking sector with Cournot competition, and the process of financial development in the model economy begins with the deregulation of the banking sector. Based on regressions with the fixed effects and the system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis also suggests an inverted‐U relationship between income inequality and financial development using provincial data from China. (JEL E25, G21, G28)     

Foreign Direct Investment, inequality, and growth

This paper examines the interactions between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), inequality, and growth, both from an empirical and a theoretical point of view. Using a panel of 119 developing countries, we observe that FDI promotes both inequality and growth, and tends to reduce the share of agriculture to GDP in the recipient country. We then set up a growth model of a dual economy in which the traditional (agricultural) sector uses a diminishing returns technology, while FDI is the engine of growth in the modern (industrial) sector. The main predictions of the model are consistent with the stylized facts observed in the data.     

HM treasury macroeconomic model 1986

This paper describes HM Treasury's Macroeconomic Model as at the beginning of 1986. It outlines the key relationship in the large (1 200 variables) model and relates them to the IS/LM model. The behavioural hypothesis underlying the main sectors of the model eg price determination, supply, and the domestic financial sector of the model are explained using a stylized representation of the main model. Some of the key econometric estimates are provided. Overall model properties are illustrated by means of model simulations.     

Demographic change and economic growth: The role of natural resources in the MENA region

This paper analyses the conditional effect of demographic change on economic development in the MENA region. We employ fixed-effects panel analysis on data from 19 countries in the region and demonstrate a negative impact of natural rents on the relationship between the working-age population and economic growth. Once the critical level of approximately 16% of resource rents (as share in total GDP) is reached, a one-unit increase in working-age population appears to harm economic growth. Further tests show that this finding is mainly driven by the negative effects of resource rents on female labor force participation. However, other drivers are a large public sector, low private sector development and inefficient labor market policies and issues such as the “Dutch disease”. The main finding remains after robustness checks in the form of controlling for competing hypotheses. Policy makers are advised to encourage economic diversification, female employment and private sector development.     

The Contribution of the Farm Sector to Annual Variations in Gross Domestic Product in Australia'

A simple empirical model is developed in which some of the main linkages from the farm sector to the Australia macroeconomy are captured. The model is simulated over the period from the mid-1950s to the mid-1980s. The results. though necessarily tentative, suggest that the relative importance of the form sector as a source of short-term instability in the non-farm sector of the Australian economy may not have declined over this period despite the relative decline in the 'importance' of the farm sector as indicated by more traditional measures .     

Fiscal deficits,banking crises and policy reversal in a semi-open economy

We study the effect of domestic policies and external shocks in a semi-open economy characterized by incomplete liberalization of the financial sector. We argue that in such transition economies stabilization programs can have a negative impact on the fiscal imbalances, offsetting to some extent the very achievement of the stabilization program. We develop a simple general equilibrium model which allows propagation of shocks in the presence of government guarantees and imperfect capital mobility. We also empirically test the impact of positive foreign interest shock on the Indian economy using a reduced form VAR approach. The econometric evidence, though broadly consistent with the main predictions of the model, suggests no significant impact of foreign interest rate shock on output and credit. We conclude that incomplete liberalization of the financial sector in transition economies has two effects. It reduces i) exposure to external financial shocks (like the current credit crisis) and ii) ability to deal with real sector shocks (which may arise from global recession in the medium term) due to endogenous policy reversals and presence of government guarantees.     

Welfare and equity impacts of cross-border factor mobility in Bangladesh: A general equilibrium analysis

We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with cross-border factor mobility to assess the impacts of a foreign wage shock and the effects of counteractive policy measures in Bangladesh. The model features migration of workers and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the ready-made garments (RMG) sector. Our simulation results show that returning migrants induced by a foreign wage fall would reduce household welfare by lowering wages and increasing unemployment, particularly for unskilled workers in the domestic labor market. To counteract this negative shock, FDI promotion in the RMG sector and a human-capital development program are considered. The former policy minimizes the negative impacts of the foreign labor market shock, while a combination of both policies is more equitable.     

广州第三产业发展变化及空间分布特征分析

第三产业特别是生产性服务业的发展正日益成为支配城市经济的主要因素．并对城市内部结构产生着深刻的影响。本文回顾了广州第三产业发展变化历程、分析了广州市区第三产业空间分布特征．并对其形成原因进行了探讨。     

Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy

The main objective of this paper is to compare the cost of climate policy consistent with the 2 °C global warming target (Paris Agreement target) with the cost of climate change induced agricultural productivity shocks, using a recursive dynamic CGE model for India. The social cost of carbon, in terms of loss in agriculture sector, is estimated to be about 2 percent of GDP, at zero rate of discount, under conservative forecasts of fall in agricultural productivity. In comparison, the cost of climate policy consistent with the Paris Agreement target of 2 °C is about 1 percent of GDP. Thus, there is a strong case for the adoption of ambitious climate policy in India, provided other countries also adhere to the same. Besides, revenues generated from the carbon tax and emission allowance could be a means to support the development and adoption of new energy and agricultural technologies, to increase social sector expenditure and to reduce abatement costs.     

PUBLIC SERVICES IN THE AREA OF THE SOCIAL ECONOMY IN ARGENTINA

ABSTRACT*: The author describes the development of the public sector of the social economy in the last few years. The state-owned companies with significant participation in the economic activity of the country were privatized within the so-called State Reform Scheme (Law 23696), beginning in 1990. Privatizations are still being carried out, but the main activities that were formerly in the hands of the state (electricity, transport, public service) are now in the hands of the lucrative private sector (corporations, mainly of foreign origin). The policy regarding the transfer of these companies has not favoured the social economy sector.     

经济发展水平、产业结构与碳排放强度——中国省级面板数据分析

利用我国29个省市自治区1995—2007年的面板数据,本文分析了二氧化碳排放强度同经济发展水平及产业结构之间的关系。通过多项计量检验,比较了不同计量模型之后,笔者选取了能够修正面板异相关和自相关的可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)模型。研究表明,(1)碳强度同人均GDP之间存在"N"形关系。(2)第二产业比重同碳强度存在正相关关系,即第二产业比重越高,二氧化碳排放强度就越高。(3)对经济发展与碳排放之间关系进行的情景分析表明,如果产业结构不改变,没有实施另外的政策,经济增长速度本身难以引致碳排放强度的大幅下降,2020年二氧化碳排放强度下降40%~45%的目标难以实现。