Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata

This is one of the first studies to estimate a popularity function at the microlevel. Using German microlevel data for the years 1991, 1992, 1998, and 2008, we show that a positive assessment of the economy significantly improves government popularity, while negative evaluations decrease satisfaction with the government. Voters take the (current and expected) national and personal economic situation into account. We find no evidence for a grievance asymmetry, i.e., voters not only punish the government for a bad economy but also reward them in good times. Finally, we show that popularity functions are only very crude proxies for vote functions, with the latter being mostly driven by party identification.     

Sources of productivity growth: an empirical analysis with German sectoral data

Many theoretical analyses of the sources of economic growth focus on knowledge spillovers and scale economies to explain growth endogenously. The contribution of this paper is to shed some light on these arguments by an empirical investigation based on a production function framework. Sectoral production functions are estimated with annual German data of 51 sectors from 1960–90. The estimates reveal that both a pure Solow growth model and a Solow model augmented with human capital cannot account for the observed productivity increases. The model should be extended by allowing for inter-industry spillovers and scale economies at the aggregate level, as well as for scale economies associated with human capital at the sectoral level. The business cycle affects observed productivity changes in the short run and in the long run.     

Long-run determinant of Korean economic growth: empirical evidence from manufacturing

This paper challenges the recent contrarian view that the phenomenal growth of East Asian NICs is fuelled mainly by the accumulation of production inputs not by TFP growth. To appraise this view, we investigated and re-evaluated South Korean manufacturing growth (1973(Q1)–1993(Q4)). Using Johansen's cointegrating analysis, our results show that South Korean manufacturing appears to have increasing returns to scale in production technology. The ‘learning by doing’ effect defined by Lucas (1988) is empirically supported. This effect appears to be observed as a long-run determinant of South Korean manufacturing growth. Consequently, South Korean manufacturing growth can be described by an endogenous economic growth model, such as the Lucas (1988) model, contradicting the contrarian view.     

The structure of the German economy

Exploiting the information contained in an economy’s input-output matrix and using the novel approach developed by Fisher and Marshall (2011), we calculate Rybczynski effects and Stolper–Samuelson effects for Germany in 2007. We show how sectoral output and factor remuneration react to exogenous changes of factor endowments and product prices, respectively. These calculations are implemented using two different models comprising one with labour and capital as the classical production factors and one where we introduce patent stock as an additional factor of production. In the former, we further differentiate between a scenario where all production factors are mobile and one with sector-specific capital. In the latter analysis, we measure the impact of innovation-targeting policy action for sectoral output. Positive Rybczynski effects of patents and high-skilled workers are strongest in knowledge-intensive sectors, while other sectors contract. The introduction of patents as a further production factor has only minor influence on the Rybczynski effects of other factors.     

Long-run relationships between labor and capital: Indirect evidence on the elasticity of substitution

This paper proposes an indirect method for making empirical inference on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. The idea is that estimates of the elasticity may be retrievable from theory derived behavioral equations, by conducting comparative statics with respect to this parameter. This approach is readily applicable to more realistic models than those which are commonly used to derive estimates of the substitution elasticity. It is demonstrated that the conventional approach does not yield sensible estimates on quarterly Finnish manufacturing data. By applying the indirect method, a long-run empirical relationship is found that is consistent with an elasticity of substitution below one.     

Regulation and shadow economy: empirical evidence for 25 OECD-countries

New empirical findings for the impact of regulations on economic activities in the shadow economy are presented here. A comprehensive regulation index covering major fields (e.g. labour and product market regulation and the quality of institutions) has been used to analyze the relationship between the density of regulations and the size of shadow economies. The empirical results from 25 OECD countries for the time period 1995–2005 show that—apart from tax burden and tax moral—main causes for the development of the size of shadow economies are labour and product market regulations, overall regulations and poor quality of official public institutions and administration. These findings can provide additional information on policy measures to tackle the problem of growing shadow economies.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns

This paper investigates the determinants of European Union FDI in the CEECs at sectoral level. The aim is to understand whether and to what extent FDI undertaken in different sectors reacts to the characteristics of the host countries. The analysis is based on a dataset created specifically for this purpose. It concentrates on the manufacturing sectors, classified according to the Pavitt taxonomy. Firstly, data summarizing the recent trend of FDI in the CEECs is presented and then empirical evidence given to account for differences between sectors. The estimated model is a generalization of a three-way fixed effect model incorporating 'classic' variables, such as labour costs as well as country-specific variables, i.e., the stage reached in the transition process. The results confirm the presence of heterogeneity at sector level.     

Time-series model forecasts and structural breaks: evidence from Spanish pre-EMU interest rates

Analysis of the future behaviour of economic variables can be biased if structural breaks are not considered. When these structural breaks are present, the in-sample fit of a model gives us a poor guide to ex ante forecast performance. This problem is true for both univariate and multivariate analysis and can be extremely important when co-integration relationships are analysed. The main goal of this article is to analyse the impact of structural breaks on forecast accuracy evaluation. We focus on forecasting several interest rates from the Spanish interbank money market. In order to carry out the analysis, we perform two forecasting exercises: (a) without structural breaks and (b) when structural breaks are explicitly considered. We use new sequential methods in order to estimate change-points in an endogenous way. This method allows us to detect structural breaks in all four rates in May 1993. However, the effects of these breaks are not very strong, since we found scarce gains in forecasting accuracy when the structural breaks are included in the models.     

Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries

In this study, we applied a threshold cointegration test to investigate the properties of asymmetric adjustment on long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) in nine transition countries between January 1995 and December 2008. Although there was strong evidence of long-run PPP for these nine transition countries (i.e., Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Russia), the adjustment mechanism was asymmetric. These results have important policy implications for the nine transition countries included in the study.     

Inflation and real sectoral output shares: Dynamic panel model evidence from seven OECD countries

Models of the cost of inflation often conclude that inflation misallocates resources. For example, inflation may lead to an increase in the variability of relative prices and it is often claimed that this increase in variability leads to a misallocation of resources. This claim raises the following empirical question, does inflation alter the composition of real output; that is, does it change real output shares? We examine this question using dynamic panel data methods for nine sector panels each with seven OECD countries from 1970 to 2005. We find evidence that inflation changes the real shares of some sectors even when inflation is treated as endogenous.     

Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division

This paper deals with the determinants of match attendance in the German premier football league. We analyse uncertainty measures of match outcome as well as uncertainty of championship outcome. Furthermore, we incorporate supporter clubs, reputation, performance measures and weather effects as explanatory variables. Due to the limited capacity of the stadiums, observations on attendance are right censored in our sample. While other authors use the ordinary least squares estimator, which is inconsistent in this framework, we take this restriction implicitly in consideration by using a Tobit model. In conclusion, we show that reputation and goodwill are more important for attendance levels than the thrill of outcome uncertainty.¹ First version received: September 1999/Final version received: January 2001     

Reorientation of the Time-series Analyses for Macroeconomics

In empirical studies of macroeconomic theories, close attention should be paid to the relationships between the deterministic trends of different variables, especially when economic relations are investigated in the context of economic growth. The paper explains in an expository manner what kind of research can be undertaken to examine the reality of macroeconomic theories in terms of deterministic trends. Japanese postwar quarterly data of money, price, income and Solow's residuals are analysed to study the reality of the neutrality hypothesis regarding money.
JEL Classification Numbers: C32, N10     

Research on the development and countermeasures for circular economy

Ecological economics and sustainable development economics are the basic theories to research on circulareconomy. Through the systemically research on the relationship of the three above, this paper thinks that the reuse andrecycle of circular economy is a way that the stall is mended after a sheep is lost. Although the reduction technicallycontrols the production process, it cannot solve the waste caused by blind production and excess competition. We haveexperienced variety obstacles when implementing the circular economy, whose main reason is the conflict between theindividual ration and the social ration. Therefore, only when the individual ration and social ration incline to conformity,the cooperating Nash equilibrium will be appeared. In order to realize the harmony of ecology, economy and society, wehave to explore effective evaluation theory. This paper cites the ＂five flows of wealth operation theory＂ from professorMa Chuandong to search operation mechanism of circular economy, makes clear the developing thoughts of circulareconomy based on the realities, and brings forward some countermeasures to develop circular economy based on theabove theoretical analysis.     

The law of value and laws of statistics: sectoral values and prices in the US economy, 1977-97

This study replicates findings that sectoral prices and valuesare highly correlated cross-sectionally, and that deviationsbetween them are small. Yet after controlling for variationsin industry size that produce ‘spurious correlation’,I find no reliable evidence that relative values have any influenceupon relative prices. The smallness of price–value deviationsthus does not result from such an influence; it is shown insteadto result from a lack of dispersion in the data. Values turnout to be no better predictors of prices than any other randomvariable with the same probability distribution.     

浅析农村经济发展

受国际金融危机的影响,我国的宏观经济发展尚未好转,经济增长速度仍然缓慢,形势依然严峻,受大环境的影响,农业农村经济发展也仍然萎缩难行。因此,必须通过加强市场的资源配置,调整农业农村产业结构,保证就业,促进增收,重视民生,从而维护农业农村的稳定和发展。     

Choosing and using payment instruments: evidence from German microdata

Germans are still very fond of using cash. Of all direct payments transactions in 2008, cash accounted for an astounding 82 % in terms of number and for 58 % in terms of value. With a dataset that combines transaction information with survey data on payment behaviour of German consumers, we shed light on how individuals decide on their cash usage. We employ a two-stage empirical framework which jointly explains payment card ownership and the use of cash. Our results indicate that cash usage is compatible with systematic economic decision making. Consumers decide on the adoption of payment cards and then use available payment media according to transaction characteristics, the relative costs of cash and card usage, socio-demographic characteristics and their assessment of payment instruments’ characteristics. Importantly, older consumers use significantly more cash than younger consumers. We show that this difference in payment behaviour is not attributable to age as such but largely to differences in the characteristics of older and younger consumers. This suggests that the high cash intensity of older consumers cannot fully be attributed to the role of habit or to their slow adoption to new payment technologies.     

Efficiency in the Domesday economy, 1086: evidence from Wiltshire estates

It may surprise some readers that frontier methods such as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) can be used to assess the productive efficiency of the estates of eleventh century England. This is possible because in 1086, William the Conqueror carried out a comprehensive survey (the Domesday Survey) of lands he invaded 20 years earlier. The survey provides high-quality data on the inputs and outputs of most manors in England. A previous analysis of the data for Essex estates indicated that the average efficiency of the Domesday agricultural economy was comparable to, if not higher than that for more modern economies, that some tenants-in-chief displayed significantly more entrepreneurial flair than others, and that the geographical location, the size of the estate and the arable/livestock mix all significantly affected estate efficiency. In this article, analysis of a second Domesday county, Wiltshire, confirms the general results for Essex, but indicates some differences in the factors affecting estate efficiency.     

区域经济对黑龙江省职业教育发展的影响——谈德国职业教育对黑龙江省职业教育发展的启发

黑龙江省"八大经济区"的划分促进了区域经济的飞速发展,在这种背景下,职业教育也迎来了机遇和挑战。为了适应、促进经济的区域发展该省对职业教育进行了大力度的改革,并取得了瞩目的成绩。但仍然还存在着问题。因此,致力于研究职业教育的深度改革,在借鉴德国先进经验的基础上提出了可以促进该省职业教育持续发展的改革措施,希望可以为该省的职业教育发展做出贡献。