基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价方法

基础设施建设以及开发环境涉及的不确定性是政府或投资者关注的核心问题之一。实物期权方法是解决不确定性问题的一个有效途径,云理论对于不确定性有更准确的描述。首先,结合实物期权理论及云理论,建立了基于正态云的基础设施建设实物期权定价模型,可以更准确地描述项目的期望与风险程度;其次,结合基础设施建设项目特征,用正态云模型的期望、熵和超熵表示期望现金流现值和投资成本,得到实物期权价值计算方法;最后,通过实际案例分析,验证了方法的有效性,并提出了未来研究的方向与建议。     

Should the north make unilateral technology transfers to the south?: North–South cooperation and conflicts in responses to global climate change

Whether developed countries should make unilateral technology transfers to developing countries in order to address global environment problems is debatable. This paper discusses the issue in a framework that recognizing nations' joint production of environmental externalities. Unlike the existing literature on unilateral transfers, this paper presents a North–South environmental–economic optimal growth model that allows transfers to mitigate externalities only. The paper derives criteria that would make such transfers feasible. By solving the transfer problem in a modified RICE model [Nordhaus, W.D., Yang, Z., 1996. A regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies, Am. Econ. Rev., 86 (4) 741–65], this paper also provides information on the timing and the amount of unilateral transfers from North to South to address potential global warming problem, one major global environmental externality. A policy implication from this study is that moderate employment of unilateral transfers would benefit North along with the world as a whole.     

Environmental Product Standards in North–South Trade

Consumption is one channel through which the environment is damaged. To protect the environment, various product standards have been introduced across the world. This paper uses a new economic geography framework to explore the effects of environmental product standards on environment in a North–South trade model. It examines the situation in which the North unilaterally introduces an environmental product standard. Specifically, those products that do not meet the standard are not allowed to be sold in the North's market. It is found that such a standard may worsen the North's environment but improve the South's environment as a result of firm relocation.     

International Technology Transfers and Competition*

This paper analyzes North–South technology transfers in a model of oligopolistic competition and spatial product differentiation. Two firms in the North supply a high‐tech good and a technically related low‐tech good. They decide about licensing the low‐tech good to suppliers in the South. With the license Southern firms get access to technology from the North, which enables them—with a certain probability—to enter the market for the high‐tech good. Northern firms may therefore license strategically to influence the competitive environment in the high‐tech market. In this setting, multiple equilibria with and without licensing may arise, and the resulting outcomes may be inefficient from the viewpoint of the Northern firms.     

Does the Optimal Size of a Fish Stock Increase with Environmental Uncertainties?

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the ‘convex-cost effect’ and the ‘gambling effect’. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.     

Basic Stochastic Dynamic Systems of Growth and Trade

Uncertainties are intrinsic features of dynamic economic systems, and this paper considers the dynamic implications of factor endowment (labor, capital) uncertainties for a small growing trading economy. The stochastic growth models presented extend the open neoclassical two-sector growth model (Deardorff) to a stochastic environment in continuous time, and extend the diffusion dynamics of one-sector growth models (Merton; Bourguignon) to a trading two-sector economy. It is demonstrated that the basic propositions of deterministic steady-state growth and endogenous growth theory, under some specifications and certain parametric restrictions, are preserved within a stochastic framework.     

The diffusion of Internet telephony among consumers and firms: Current issues and future prospects

This paper analyses the current demand and market potential for Internet telephony—the transmission of voice over the public Internet or over a private Intranet—a technology that has attracted considerable attention as an appealing alternative to traditional telephony but that is likely to develop as a component within an integrated system of video, data and voice applications. The paper investigates technical, economic and social factors supporting and hindering the adoption of Internet telephony. In doing so, it relies upon the idea that the diffusion of Internet telephony is determined both by the attributes of the technological applications as perceived by the potential adopters, and by the characteristics of different users. According to this view, the research points out that relevant uncertainties reside on the demand side, particularly among residential users, and that in the future, businesses are more likely to adopt these applications than consumers. The assumptions concerning the future diffusion of Internet telephony are supported by the results of a survey carried out among a sample of Internet telephony service providers in Europe and North America.     

陕北地区生态与经济互动发展初探

陕北地区位于我国生态脆弱区,生态建设与经济发展是区域发展的两大目标,二者长期难以协调,影响到陕北地区可持续发展,如何实现生态重建与经济发展的协调统一是该区亟待解决的难题。本文以互动发展观为理论指导,结合陕北地区延安市西北部吴起县的生态建设模式,从互动发展的角度提出了陕北地区生态重建与经济发展的对策。     

Unprotected resources and voracious world markets: A proof of losses in North–South Trade

This paper develops a generalization of Chichilnisky's [Chichilnisky, G., 1994. North–South Trade and the global environment. American Economic Review 84 (4), 851–874.] model of North–South Trade, making use of the dual theory of international trade. The central purpose is to provide rigorous proof of the previously unproven assertion that the South can lose from trade and from price changes that normally constitute terms-of-trade improvements.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

发展草地农业是农牧交错带农业结构调整的出路

农牧交错带的农业产业结构调整在生态环境不断恶化、农民收入增长乏力的状况下势在必行。本文分析了农牧交错带生态经济的现状,明确了生态经济理论应作为农业产业结构调整的主要理论依据,并指出实行人工种草、舍饲养殖,发展草地农业、畜牧业是农牧交错带农业结构调整的出路。最后,提出了结构调整的关键措施。     

North–South Trade and Pollution Migration: The Debate Revisited

The paper examines the effect of freer North–South trade in goods on pollution, commodity terms-of-trade and national welfare, utilizing a factor endowment framework. North and South are distinguished in terms of the relative endowment of a pollution causing natural resource: South is relatively more resource abundant. Compared to the analysis of Copeland and Taylor (1994)—which is the central work so far on this subject—this paper internalizes the commodity terms-of-trade impact of individual environment policies. It is derived that if countries specialize completely in the free-trade equilibrium, both are induced to reduce their pollution as compared to autarky. It is interesting and paradoxical that the South also reduces its pollution, despite specializing in the pollution-intensive good. Again, contrary to common perception, free trade may entail an overall terms-of-trade loss for the North, while South will always have a positive change in the terms-of-trade. Finally, inspite of better environment, free trade may cause both the countries to gain or lose in terms of aggregate welfare. This research has benefitted from comments received at the conference on International Dimension of Environment Policy organized by the European Science Foundation and Tilburg University, October 7–12, 2000 Kerkrade, The Netherlands and the International Conference on Environment and Development organized by CITD, School of International Studies, JNU, April 7–8, 2005, New Delhi, India, as well as those received from two anonymous referees. A small section of this research was published in Mehra and Das (2002).     

The state of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets: A multidisciplinary literature review

The objective of this research work is to study the progress of research on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and outline and identify the key disciplines, journals, articles and authors. For this the author studied the existing literature from the various fields in which technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets research work have been published using ISI Web of Knowledge database. The paper finds that there is increasing research work on technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets and the bibliographical search resulted in ninety-one documents written by one-hundred-sixty-one authors in eighty-four journals in seventy-two disciplines. The five major disciplines and their underlying journals are business and economics, agriculture, psychology, public administration, and environmental sciences and ecology accounting for majority of publications. In journals the most prolific, measured by number of articles published are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine, World Development, and Higher Education; and most influential, measured by the global citation received, are Harvard Business Review, Social Science and Medicine and Sociological Review. The top 10% of the journals are responsible for 23% of all publications but 85% of all global citations received. This highlights that despite the high, diverse and increasing number of journals; only few are dominating and shaping the research arena of technological uncertainties, social uncertainties and emerging markets. Further, in the ten most cited articles, no author appears more than once.     

三峡库区水体生态安全问题及对策

三峡库区水体生态环境虽然在长江源区和三峡库区实施了综合治理，情况得到缓解，但目前情况依然严峻，随着南水北调工程的实施，三峡地区的环境问题将对长江中下游地区，乃至华北地区的生态安全均造成威胁，事关全局，必须加强综合治理力度，全面实施六大工程，完善三大机制，恢复生态平衡，维护水体生态安全。     

The choice of environmental policy instruments under correlated uncertainty

This paper analyzes how the presence of correlated uncertainty between the cost and benefit of environmental pollution control can affect the choice of policy instruments. It is shown that the superiority of the nonlinear-tax instrument in which the corrective tax coincides with the expected schedule of marginal benefit may break down in favor of a linear-tax or a quantity instrument when the policy environment shifts from the case of independently distributed to the case of correlated uncertainties. With various combinations of parameter values of the two probability distributions, we also construct three distinct ranges in each of which one instrument turns out to be superior to the other two.     

中国频繁遭遇贸易摩擦的原因及其对策

改革开放以来,中国对外贸易发展迅速并取得了巨大成就,但与其他发达国家（地区）相比,对外贸易的发展之路仍很漫长。外部环境的不确定性和自身素质不高等因素给中国对外贸易带来了干扰和阻碍,尤其是在后危机时代,由此引起的贸易摩擦已成为中国进一步融入世界经济过程中的一个难以回避且需要谨慎处理的主要障碍。因此,如何妥善处理对外贸易摩擦,并有效跨越贸易壁垒,进而实现对外贸易又好又快发展,是摆在中国面前的一大难题。本文首先从外部层面和内部层面入手分析了中国频繁遭遇贸易摩擦的主要原因,接着提出构建和完善应对贸易摩擦的预警机制和快速反应机制,并分别从政府、行业协会和企业等不同层面提出了相应的对策和建议,以有效应对并跨越频繁遭遇的贸易壁垒,进而促进中国对外贸易的健康和持续发展。     

The uncertain foundations of the welfare state

The welfare state is often portrayed as provider of insurance against ‘uncertainties’, in Knight's (1921) sense of the term, which would be refused or underinsured on private markets. This image conflicts with the standard economic model of risk exchange founded on the subjective interpretation of probability, which predicts that all individual uncertainties will be insured by private markets. Our aim in this paper is to explain why this prediction fails and, building on contributions to decision theory that take seriously the idea of Knightian uncertainty, to show why social insurance may be justified.     

低碳城市是改善我国城市环境与发展的新机制——关于低碳城市的理论、政策和实践的研究

文章首先指出：未来40年内中国城市化进程将高速发展,然而,中国城市环境问题相当严重,传统的高碳发展道路充满危机,必须开创一条低碳发展的绿色道路。随后进行了四点理论分析,指出低碳城市是改善我国城市环境与发展的新型机制,低碳城市需要理性处理经济与环境的关系,低碳城市需要不断创新和学习,低碳城市需要探索最适合自己国家、地区的模式。文章总结了低碳城市的政策框架,总结了低碳城市在中国华北、华东、华南地区的实践。     

瞻园假山的植物景观空间尺度变迁研究

从植物景观空间尺度变化的角度研究了瞻园中的南 假山和北假山的植物景观在不同历史时期的空间尺度变化， 运用对比、图解、量化的方法，讨论分析植物在这一特定景 观环境中的植物景观尺度变化及其带来的影响，并提出未来 适宜的植物尺度建议，为江南古典园林遗产原真性保护和当 前园林植物景观尺度设计提供借鉴和指导。结果表明瞻园北 假山处植物景观尺度仍在适宜范围内，背景植物观赏视角为 16°~25°；南假山植物尺度呈现不适宜趋势，背景植物观 赏视角为38.4°；综合考虑空间尺度和视线适宜性的条件 下，北假山处植物高度的适宜参考值H=16~30.7m，最佳 参考值H=15~27.7m，南假山处背景植物高度的适宜参考值 H=6.4~19.25m，最佳参考值H=9.4~11.1m。同时2处景 点由于植物种类的变动导致的景点的文化性略有缺失。     

广西北部湾经济区生态环境保护问题的研究

北部湾是我国目前为止最洁净的绿色海湾,海碧、天蓝、空气清新是北部湾最宝贵的资源和品牌优势。同时,北部湾作为继长三角珠三角和黄渤海后又一个经济增长极,其开放开发必然会给生态环境带来一定的影响。如何保护北部湾,确保经济发展的同时不损害环境已成为北部湾经济区发展的重要课题。通过对广西北部湾经济区的走访调查,结合其特殊性,提出对广西北部湾可持续发展的一些建议和构想。