居住安排与社会支持对老年人医疗服务利用的影响研究——以上海为例

文章在对上海市静安区老年人进行随机抽样调查的基础上,采用tobit模型分析了居住安排与社会支持对老年人治疗性医疗服务利用的影响,采用logit模型分析了居住安排与社会支持对老年人预防性医疗服务利用的影响。研究发现,居住安排与社会支持对老年人医疗服务利用具有显著影响,但对不同层次、不同类型的医疗服务利用影响不同,同时,老年人的自理能力水平对这种影响发挥调节作用。在我国已经实现了医疗保险全覆盖的背景下,拓宽社区支持功能,提高老年人医疗服务的可及性并提升基层医疗服务质量应成为医疗政策的重要议题。     

Co-operation in Risky Environments: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia

The semi-arid and arid rangelands of Sub-Saharan Africa arecharacterised by high variability and by heavy reliance of herderson access to common resources, predominantly pasture and water.In these systems, the capacity of the community to co-operateover resource management is critical and the effectiveness ofmanagement has a direct impact on exploitation rates and landallocation patterns. In this paper, we develop a model to capturethe impact of climatic variability on capacity to co-operateand on resulting land use and allocation patterns, and applythe model to data collected from communities located on theBorana Plateau in southern Ethiopia. Results indicate that rainfallvariability has a negative impact on stock densities, consistentwith risk-averse producer behaviour, but has no statisticallysignificant impact on land allocation patterns in this marginalarea. Furthermore, co-operation has a direct negative impacton stock densities and land allocated to private pastures. Theresults support the hypothesis that individual incentives toovergraze and encroach on common pastures can be mitigated incommunities with high co-operative capacity.     

Living Conditions and Basic Needs: Evidence from African Countries

We here use five rounds of Afrobarometer data covering more than 100,000 individuals over the 2004–2016 period to explore the link between individual self‐reported measures of living conditions and access to four basic needs. We not only consider own access to these needs, but also various indices of their deprivation, satisfaction and inequality. We find some evidence of comparisons to those who are better off and to those who are worse off, in terms of access to basic needs, in the evaluation of current living conditions. Overall, however, subjective living conditions are mostly absolute in African countries. There is notable heterogeneity by level of development, with the effect of lack of access to basic needs being more pronounced in poorer countries. Equally, comparisons to the better off are associated with better living conditions in poorer countries, suggesting the existence of a tunnel effect: this latter disappears with economic development.     

Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community

In this paper, we investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in 15 sub‐Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community, between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time‐series data and analysis (we use the fixed effects and fixed effects with instrumental variables estimators to account for heterogeneity and endogeneity in thin panels), suggest that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the community. We highlight that inflation has offset the Mundell–Tobin effect and consequently reduced the much needed economic activity in the community, and also the importance of an institutional framework conducive to a stable macroeconomic environment as a precondition for development and prosperity in the community.     

养老保险的普及是否导致城镇独居老人的增加？

本文基于中国老年人口健康长寿跟踪调查2005年数据的城镇老人样本，在考虑养老金内生性问题后，发现领取养老金的老人与家人合住的可能性更高，经由进一步验证，这可以用家庭成员间讨价还价模型或“财富吸引孩子”的理论加以解释。基于2002—2005年面板数据的固定效应模型和随机效应模型发现，养老金对老人与家人合住的正向影响正随时间推移而弱化。研究结果表明中国养老保障体系的拓展在近期并不会导致城镇独居老人群体的膨胀。     

补充医疗保险对中老年人医疗服务利用的影响研究

我国基本医疗保障制度顶层设计逐渐完善,但针对部分高额医疗费用,基本医保的报销水平仍然有限,与基本医疗保险相衔、面向全体基本医疗保险参保人员的补充医疗保险将作为在更大范围分散风险的补偿手段满足人民群众的医疗需求,为此探究补充医疗保险对中老年人医疗服务利用的影响。 采用2018年中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）的数据,构建两部模型进行分析探究。 结果表明,补充医疗保险增加了中老年人体检、门诊和住院的可能性,同时减少了其在门诊费用支出。 因此,政府应鼓励居民购买补充医疗保险,以解决基本医疗保险无法满足患者的医疗服务需求的问题,同时为我国补充医疗保险发展提出相关建议。     

International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region

Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have undertaken substantial reforms in market liberalisation policies and regional integration initiatives. Theory suggests that trade can affect output through the exploitation of comparative advantage, increasing return to scale, liberalisation policies and technology. This work investigates the impact of agricultural exports to, machinery and chemical imports from and tariffs on agricultural products by total partners to the Southern African Customs' Union, SADC, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world on agricultural production. Following Hausman tests, three panel fixed-effect models are estimated. The first is for aggregate machinery imports, chemicals imports and agricultural exports. The second is for disaggregated exports and imports according to the respective destination and source regions above. The third is for aggregate imports and disaggregated tariffs implemented by the various export destination regions toward the SADC. The results agree with the theory that international trade is good for development. Agricultural market expansion through export opportunities and access to inputs are significant sources of agricultural production enhancement in the SADC region. Tariffs barriers to agricultural exports are found to be significant impediments to agricultural production. However, the disparity of effects by export destination and the insignificance of the impact of trade with the rest of Africa are worth emphasising.     

IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs and their Critics: Evidence from the Recent Experience of Egypt

The IMF-supported stabilization and structural adjustment programs implemented by Egypt in the 1990s were successful in meeting their objectives, and when compared with earlier attempts and the experience of other developing countries. The authorities undertook a sharp reduction in the government's overall deficit and its central bank financing allowing for increased credit availability to the private sector within a framework of a rapidly decelerating monetary expansion. Despite initiating comprehensive market reforms that significantly improved the environment for private investment, the response of the private sector has been disappointing. It is argued that until institutional, regulatory and political constraints are removed, Egypt will not join the group of high-investing and fast-growing economies.     

性别工资差别与人力资本--来自大学毕业生的经验分析

在劳动力市场上 ,雇主歧视、人力资本的初始点和积累不同等原因都会导致性别工资差别。本文对上海市两所大学毕业生的能力培养和毕业后的两期收入作了实证研究。我们分析了毕业生的性别和人力资本差异对工资水平的影响 ,计量分析还发现在控制了其他因素后 ,大学里女性对自身学习能力的培养普遍高于男性 ,但是在劳动力市场上女性的工资仍然要低于男性 ,这种工资差别随工作年限的增长在扩大     

Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya

Climatic variability exerts tremendous influence on the livelihoods and well-being of pastoralists in the Horn of Africa. Recent advances in climate forecasting technologies have raised the intriguing prospect of reasonably accurate forecasts of coming seasons’ rainfall patterns. We explore the value of such external climate forecast information to pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya using data collected using both open-ended, qualitative methods to identify and understand indigenous climate forecasting methods and quantitative data collected using survey instruments. On balance, climate forecast information does not seem a limiting factor at present in pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa.     

Growth, Technological Change, and ICT Diffusion: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries

In this paper we present an overview of GDP and productivitygrowth patterns in OECD countries over the past decade, on thebasis of harmonized data. Our evidence suggests that fast-growingcountries generally shared three characteristics: improvementsin labour utilization; a generalized enhancement in human capital;and rapid shifts in the composition of physical capital towardsinformation and communication technology (ICT) equipment. Particularly,we show that technological change embodied in new ICT capitalgoods has been a primary source of output and productivity growthin ICT-using sectors. The international comparison allows relatinggrowth patterns to institutional and policy indicators, therebyoffering some preliminary insights into the potential sourcesof growth disparities. Cross-country evidence yields some tentativesupport to the idea that institutional factors affecting competitionin the product market are likely to affect productivity patterns,especially in a period of rapid diffusion of a general-purposetechnology (such as ICT).     

独居老人主观幸福感影响因素分析——基于CGSS 2017年的数据

在以人口老龄化为核心的人口结构性矛盾日益突出的背景下,独居老人由于其群体特殊性,他们的健康福祉和生活质量问题尤为值得学界关注。基于中国综合社会调查2017年数据对1 016名独居老人的主观幸福感影响因素进行分析发现：家庭支持（家人情感支持和经济保障）、社会支持（社会阶层归属感、信任感及公平感）和政府部分制度支持（医疗保障制度）显著影响独居老人主观幸福感,政府的其他制度支持却无显著影响;此外,独居老人的主观幸福感也呈现出显著的性别、年龄、城乡和健康状况差异。基于此,相关部门应从政府、家庭和社会及个人层面入手来探索增进独居老人生活福祉的可行路径。     

我国大城市80后生育观的调查研究——基于杭州市的数据

调整人口政策,平衡人口结构对于现阶段全面做好人口工作具有十分重要的意义。文章首先简要的对生育观文献进行了述评,进而在此基础上运用问卷调查的方法分析了杭州市80后的生育观现象,主要表现为杭州市80后都有生儿育女的观念、孩子的数量为一至两个、女性偏好略大于男性、生育的动机主要为满足亲子感情及家庭完整等高层次的精神需要、晚婚晚育普遍等方面。最后上升到更宏观的角度,从整个国家的视角为我国经济发达的大城市的生育政策调整提出政策建议,主要有继续坚持实行计划生育基本国策不动摇;从人们的经济条件和生活质量方面影响人们的生育行为;鼓励大城市推行适度的开放二胎政策;完善并加大对计划生育家庭的扶助制度,以期能为政府相关部门建言献策。     

失地农民基本生活保障制度：浙江的证据

基于浙江省11市建立失地农民基本生活保障制度的实践,对建设失地农民基本生活保障制度的内容和类型、主要特点和存在的问题进行了归纳、提炼与分析,并提出进一步完善的政策性建议。浙江省建立失地农民基本生活保障制度的实践对推进城市化起了积极的促进作用,浙江的经验也为其他省加快建立失地农民基本生活保障制度提供了决策参考。     

市场潜能、人口密度与非农劳动生产率——来自中国地级面板数据的证据

本文基于样本期为1999—2004年的地级面板数据并运用动态面板数据的计量方法，对中国地级区域市场潜能、人口密度等经济地理因素与其非农业劳动生产率之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明，地级区域的市场潜能、人口密度等经济地理因素对其非农劳动生产率都存在显著为正的影响。而且，无论是从绝对弹性还是标准化弹性来看，地级区域市场潜能对其非农劳动生产率的影响都更大。