人力资本积累、收入分布演化与经济增长

本文建立了一个同时含有物质资本、人力资本积累及收入分布演化的内生增长模型,来研究人力资本积累、收入分布演化与经济增长的相互作用.我们发现,更高的初始收入差异将通过直接降低人力资本增长率与间接提高下一期的物质资本与人力资本比这两个渠道对经济增长率产生负面影响.另一方面,降低收入差异能获得更高的人力资本与经济增长率,这将使得低收入国家有可能追赶上高收入国家.     

Institutions,human capital,and growth: The institutional mechanism

This paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between human capital, institutions, and economic growth. The paper first develops a micro-foundation model linking institutions to human capital. The advantage of our modeling strategy is that the human capital accumulation function is derived from an endogenous process. The theoretical model shows that improvements in the quality of institutions foster human capital accumulation, decrease income inequality and change the historical development path. The paper uses cross-country panel data from 1965 to 2005 to test some of the model's propositions and finds that deep structures or structural institutions – which are very persistent and rooted on the historical development path of an economy – affect long-term economic performance, while political institutions are uncorrelated with productivity and long-term economic growth. The empirical estimates also show that growth of physical and human capital – instead of levels – determines long-run economic growth.     

教育体系、收入分布与经济增长

本文使用一个包含物质资本与人力资本积累的世代交叠模型,研究不同的教育体系对经济增长的影响.我们发现,在公立教育体系下,最优的教育投资水平高于私立教育体系,收入差异也将会比在私立教育体系下下降得更快.因此,与私立教育体系相比,公立教育体系更有利于人力资本积累,在公立教育体系下一个国家将会有更高的经济增长率与更为平等的收入分布.     

Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non‐uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long‐run growth rate of per‐capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi‐endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.     

Does income inequality hinder economic growth? New evidence using Australian taxation statistics

Using taxation statistics, we first derive consistently defined Gini coefficients for the period 1942–2013 for Australia as a whole as well as its eight states and territories. While income inequality exhibited a downward trend until 1979, it has since been on the rise not only over time, but also across states and territories. We then proceed to examine the effect of inequality on economic growth after controlling for changes arising from investment in physical and human capital using available panel data across all states and territories (1986–2013). We find that inequality adversely affects economic growth with a couple of years delay, an outcome consistent with similar studies undertaken in the United States and Europe. Our findings suggest that policymakers can address rising income inequality by implementing measures that support, and enhance, human capital accumulation given its long-run economic and social benefits.     

Redistributive Tax and Growth in a Model with Discrete Occupational Choice

An optimal redistributive tax-subsidy formula is derived for a growth model where income inequality is endogenously driven by an adult's choice of occupation between work and management. Investment in human capital is the engine of growth. The world's stock of exploitable knowledge as well as the economy's average human capital determine the potential rate of return from investment in human capital in an economy. How much available knowledge would be exploited in the economy depends on the proportion of innovators in our model. A redistributive tax reform impacts growth as well as income inequality via its influence over the occupational choice. The optimal redistributive tax rate is path-dependent in the sense that it depends on the initial wealth distribution. The normative implication of the model is that the optimal capital income tax rate could very well be positive if the initial wealth inequality exceeds a threshold. The optimal capital income tax rate depends inversely on the initial wealth inequality.     

Factors of production,productivity, institutions,and development: Evidence from Brazil

The economic growth and development literature emphasizes that investment in technology and physical and human capital is essential for achieving higher levels of development. Political and economic institutions are also relevant in this process. With a sample of 5,503 Brazilian municipalities, this study carries out a development accounting exercise and measures the effects of institutional quality on per capita gross domestic product (GDP), physical capital intensity, human capital stock, and productivity. The empirical results indicate that institutional quality affects GDP per capita mainly through human capital accumulation and total factor productivity.     

The trade-off between environmental care and long-term growth—Pollution in three prototype growth models

The effects of increased environmental care on optimal technology choice and long-term growth are studied for an economy in which pollution is a side-product of physical capital used in production. First, it is shown that in case of a standard neoclassical production structure, the result is a less capital-intensive production process whereas the long-run growth rate is not affected. Next, we introduce assumptions of the endogenous growth literature. When there are constant returns to physical capital, an increase in abatement activities crowds out investment and lowers the endogenous growth rate. When human capital accumulation is the engine of growth, physical capital intensity declines and the endogenous optimal growth rate is unaffected by increased environmental care or is even higher, depending on whether or not pollution influences agents' ability to learn.The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee, to Lans Bovenberg, Noud Gruijters, Theo van de Klundert, Lex Meijdam, and Sweder van Wijnbergen for helpful and stimulating comments. The views expressed in this paper are the authors' own and should not be attributed to the Ministry of Finance.     

The dynamics of catch-up and skill and technology upgrading in China

This paper accounts for China’s economic growth since 1980 in a unified endogenous growth model in which a sequencing of physical capital accumulation, human capital accumulation and innovation drives the rise in China’s aggregate income. The first stage is characterized by physical capital accumulation. The second stage includes both physical and human capital accumulation, and in the final stage innovation is added to the mix. Model calibrations indicate that the growth model can generate a trajectory that accords well with the different stages of development in China.     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

珠三角地区资本结构与劳资关系的实证研究

根据资本-劳动替代的“拐点论”,经济发展的初期总是伴随着物质资本的积累,物质资本将在相当长的时期占据经济增长的主导地位;由于资本劳动的边际替代率递减,当物质资本积累处于一定阶段,产生对人力资本更多需求,人力资本则成为这个时期的主要资本;只有在经济持续发展,政治文明发展到一定程度,信任、规范、网络和社会公德等社会资本才有可能成为推动经济发展的主导力量。珠三角地区城市的劳资关系在近30年均处于下降趋势,物质资本总体处于上升趋势,人力资本意义上的劳动力尤其是高层次高素质的劳动力较缺乏;社会资本可以显著的促进物质资本和人力资本的积累,物质资本水平的提高并不必然产生人力资本积累和社会资本积累的结果,人力资本积累也不必然促进社会资本的发展。需要转变经济发展方式,为资本演化创造物质条件,促进人力资本和社会资本积累,并在企业管理层面上促进合作型劳资关系的形成。     

Phases of economic development and the transitional dynamics of an innovation-education growth model

This paper extends earlier analysis of the transitional dynamics of a growth model in which both human capital and innovation drive income expansion. Funke and Strulik [2000. On endogenous growth with physical capital, human capital and product variety. European Economic Review 44, 491-515] suggest that the typical advanced economy follows three development phases, characterized in a temporal order by physical capital accumulation, human capital formation, and innovation, and that the transitional dynamics of the model reproduce such a sequencing. I argue that other sequences of the phases of development are possible and show that the model can generate a trajectory in which innovation precedes human capital formation. This trajectory accords with the observation that the rise in formal education followed with a considerable lag the process of industrialization. U.S. income and educational time series data are used to corroborate the innovation-education trajectory.     

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for human capital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.     

Growth and social security: the role of human capital

This paper studies the growth and efficiency effects of pay-as-you-go financed social security when human capital is the engine of growth. Employing a variant of the Lucas model [Lucas, R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3–42.] with overlapping generations, it is shown that a properly designed, unfunded social security system leads to higher output growth than a fully funded one. Furthermore, the economy with an unfunded social security is efficient, while the other one is not. These results stand in sharp contrast to those obtained in models where the reason for economic growth is physical capital accumulation.     

内生经济增长理论框架下的市场失效与财政政策

内生经济增长理论认为,知识和人力资本的外部效应与创新带来的垄断势力推动经济增长的同时,也会带来非帕雷托最优的经济增长收入分配的不公平,将阻碍经济增长;加快知识和人力资本积累、促进技术进步以及缓解收入分配不公平的财政政策能纠正市场失效,使长期经济增长达到社会最优.     

城乡收入差距对中国经济增长的影响机制研究——基于我国省际动态面板数据的系统GMM分析

从理论上分析了城乡收入差距影响经济增长的传导机制;基于2000—2008年我国30个省、市、自治区(除西藏)的面板数据,采用系统广义矩分析方法对我国城乡收入差距通过物质资本积累和人力资本积累两个途径对经济增长的影响机制进行了实证分析。结果表明,现阶段我国城乡收入差距的扩大通过抑制人力资本积累进而阻碍经济增长的作用,要大于通过增加物质资本积累进而促进经济增长的作用。因此,现阶段我国城乡收入差距的扩大对经济增长总体上具有阻碍作用。最后,提出了具体的政策建议以缩小城乡收入差距、促进经济增长。     

收入不平等对经济增长影响的实证研究

采用联立方程分析方法,实证分析了收入不平等对经济增长影响的三种机制,探讨了收入不平等如何通过影响物质资本投资、人力资本投资和居民消费来作用于经济增长。结果表明,从长期看收入不平等的扩大会刺激物质资本投资,但不利于人力资本投资和居民消费增长,收入不平等对经济增长的长期影响为负。因此,从经济发展的角度政府不应容忍收入不平等的过分扩大。     

Reexamining the interaction between innovation and capital accumulation

In endogenous growth models with innovation and capital accumulation Arnold [J. Macroeconomics 20 (1998) 189] and Blackburn et al. [J. Macroeconomics 22 (2000) 81] show that long-run growth of per capita income is independent of innovation activities; it is solely determined by preferences and the human capital accumulation technology. As a result, government policies do not affect long-run growth. This paper develops an endogenous growth model with innovation and (physical and human) capital accumulation to show that long-run growth depends on both innovation and capital accumulation technologies as well as on preferences and that government taxes and subsidies can have effects on the long-run growth rate.     

AIDS crisis and growth

We investigate an OLG economy where an AIDS epidemic influences human capital accumulation and growth through the creation of large numbers of orphans. We study how intra-family allocations regarding school and work time of children are adjusted in the face of AIDS within a family, and how, in turn, these adjustments influence accumulation of physical and human capital. We compute the aggregate effects of an AIDS epidemic on human and physical capital accumulation and growth. We find that growth effects of an AIDS epidemic are large. Some policies such as subsidization of AIDS medication have relatively small effects.     

Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states

How does financial development affect economic growth: through its impact on accumulation of physical and human capital or by boosting total factor productivity (TFP) growth? We use a new data set on output, inputs, and total factor productivity for the US states to study this question. Unlike previous cross-country research that tries to disentangle the channels through which financial development impacts growth, we use a plausibly exogenous measure of financial development: the timing of banking deregulation across states during the period 1970–2000. At the same time our new data set allows us to go beyond what was previously done in the state banking deregulation literature and identify whether finance impacts states’ input accumulation or TFP growth. We find, in line with existing cross-country studies, that deregulation boosts growth by accelerating both TFP growth and the accumulation of physical capital without having any impact on human capital. In contrast to the cross-country studies, we also find that the effects of deregulation are largely independent of states’ initial level of development; both rich and poor states grow faster after deregulation. Additionally, since our data set breaks down aggregate output into three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and the remaining industries, we are able to show that deregulation accelerates the growth of productivity in manufacturing. This last finding answers an important critique of the banking deregulation studies which asserts that observed growth effects may be coming from the growth of financial industry itself and not from the beneficial effect of finance on other industries, such as manufacturing.