Investigation of causality based on complex use of statistical methods (case study of social research)

The article deals with the problem of revealing cause–effect relations in the social research by a complex of statistical methods. The ways for solving the problem for experimental and non-experimental data are regarded. In the research the role of the statistical methods in formation of causal relation hypotheses is revealed and the methods of hypotheses verification in conditions of experiment or upon latent structure modelling are discussed. The possibilities of the use of the factor analysis and the analysis of variance in revealing cause–effect relations are also considered. Special attention is paid to the interpretation of the analysis results depending on the character of the empirical data and the conditions they were obtained in. The approaches to causal relations revealing based on the development of the schemes of the complex analysis of the empirical data by the statistical methods aimed at investigation of the cause and effect relation in a long-term research are suggested. We take into account the hierarchical structure of the schemes reflecting the structure of the subject of cognition, the specificity of which requires the use of “rigid” and “flexible” models in combination. Its variant could be the method of structural equation modelling. The article gives an example of the research of causal relations in the assessment of the quality of education services in higher institution. Each stage of the assessment is provided with building of certain “rigid” or “flexible” mathematical models. Their combination allows using the obtained quality parameters as an instrument of regulation of interaction between education service providers and clients.     

战略管理思想与战略管理会计

20世纪60、70年代的战略管理思想指出了战略的长期导向以及组织内外部相互匹配的本质;80年代的波特战略管理思想对企业外部产业环境与竞争对手更加关注;90年代迄今的战略管理思想则聚焦于企业内部资源尤其是无形资源与能力。80年代产生的SMA突破了传统管理会计的内向性局限,具有明显的外向性与长期性特征。90年代迄今的战略管理思想拓展了SMA的研究视角,为21世纪的SMA提供了新的研究维度——企业无形的资源与能力。本文认为,需重新认识SMA的特征。随着战略管理思想的不断发展,21世纪的SMA作为交叉学科,内容与方法将更加丰富和完善。     

项目组织的基因构件方法化研究

随着时代的发展,传统的项目管理的方法有力地促进了项目的完成;但是,它也显露出一系列的不足和缺陷。为此,将从人体基因的角度,对项目管理的方法进行基因构件化;从基因成分的确定,到基因组的设计,再到基因构件化的设计,从而构建起一个基因构件化的模型。在此基础上,对模型的实现平台进行了阐述,将会有力地促进项目组织对环境的适应性和项目的成功。     

城市用地对经济增长贡献的分析

随着经济的高速发展,城市用地扩张在城市经济中所起的作用越来越明显。目前城市建设用地的投放被称为"地根",和货币金融政策"银根"并驾其驱作为宏观调控的两大主要手段。中央政府和地方政府由于存在着利益分配的问题,因而掌握土地实权的地方行政将土地投放作为发展经济的重要驱动。但是土地投入对经济的贡献到底有多大,应该用什么样政策来管理土地投入使用,通过利用改进后的索洛模型来分析,得出的统计结果和模型假设相矛盾。出现这种不合的原因归结为两点,一是中国统计数据质量不高,二是模型适用经济体大小范围。但是能从统计结果大致看出三种要素在经济增长中地位的高低,资本最为重要,其次为劳动力,最后是土地投入。土地投入的作用很小。只要土地投入达到必需量后,土地的进一步投入带来的经济增长很小。最后,进一步提出相关的政策建议,中国应该走"聪明增长"的道路,而不是盲目地扩大城市用地范围。     

我国上市公司董事会模式研究

董事会是公司治理的核心层,董事会模式对上市公司的发展具有重要意义。文章讨论了我国上市公司的董事会模式及存在问题,并从提高董事会和监事会的运作效率方面提出改进董事会模式的建议与对策。     

乡村振兴背景下生鲜农产品流通RFID技术应用标准化研究

随着乡村振兴战略不断推进,农业问题再次成为人们关注的焦点。生鲜农产品高效流通为农业的可持续发展提供良好的支撑。高质量高效率的生鲜农产品流通关乎农业的可持续发展、农村振兴和农民增收。文章基于文献述评与研究思考,分析RFID技术在生鲜农产品流通中的应用及标准化现状,探讨乡村振兴背景下生鲜农产品流通RFID应用标准化的瓶颈与发展对策。研究结果表明,在生鲜农产品流通过程中,商业模式的创新是制约RFID技术应用标准化顺利推进的首要因素;技术创新在助推RFID系统革新过程中具有重要作用,要加大技术创新力度,提升RFID技术水准;要完善标准化人才培养模式,培育高素质复合型人才,优化人才结构;建立标准化协同工作机制,健全标准化共享平台。     

Systems analysis approach to research on German education

The paper shows some of the experience of the empirical research on demographic accounting which is being carried out at Heidelberg University, F.R. of Germany. The first part of the paper presents the system including the subsystems (population system, educational system, manpower system). It contains some suggestions how to measure the connections between the subsystems. The first measure is a measure of substitution, the second deals with the degree of general use of a certain educational level in terms of occupation.

In the second part of the paper special reference is given to the empirical Heidelberg studies of the educational subsystem. At present the main purpose of the project is to try out the functional relations between the various transition rates involved in the system. There-upon a sensibility analysis will be developed which provides empirical data as to which transition rates are of strategic relevance for educational planning. Here the transition rates are defined as dependent variables, certain influencing factors or determinants as independent variables. Empirical results of the structural analysis will be published at the end of 1968, those of the sensibility analysis at the end of 1969.     

央企管理者来源对企业绩效的影响效果研究

本文将央企集团的高管作为研究对象,实证检验央企高管来源对集团绩效的影响,拟为央企集团经理人选聘的作用机制提供经验证据。研究发现:总经理岗位轮换与集团绩效的关系因继任情景不同,产生不同的结果。一方面,来自内部晋升的董事长会过度干预执行层的工作而导致企业绩效下降,这种情况在总经理岗位轮换的时候更为严重;另一方面,高管团队的稳定性对岗位轮换的总经理产生重要影响。因此,实施董事长轮岗制度,同时保证经理层的稳定性更有利于企业的发展。本文研究有助于深化认识央企高管晋升机制、高管变更的经济后果,并为国有企业高管聘任机制改革提供经验启示。     

The creative response and the endogenous dynamics of pecuniary knowledge externalities: an agent based simulation model

The paper elaborates an agent based simulation model (ABM) to explore the endogenous long-term dynamics of knowledge externalities. ABMs, as a form of artificial cliometrics, allow the analysis of the effects of the reactivity of firms caught in out-of-equilibrium conditions conditional on the levels of endogenous knowledge externalities stemming from the levels of knowledge connectivity of the system. The simulation results confirm the powerful effects of endogenous knowledge externalities. At the micro-level, the reactions of firms caught in out-of-equilibrium conditions yield successful effects in the form of productivity enhancing innovations, only in the presence of high levels of knowledge connectivity and strong pecuniary knowledge externalities. At the meso-level, the introduction of innovations changes the structural characteristics of the system in terms of knowledge connectivity that affect the availability of knowledge externalities. Endogenous centrifugal and centripetal forces continually reshape the structure of the system and its knowledge connectivity. At the macro system level, an out-of-equilibrium process leads to a step-wise increase in productivity combined with non-linear patterns of output growth characterized by significant oscillations typical of the long waves in Schumpeterian business cycles.     

Sustainable development of global entrepreneurship: infrastructure and perspectives

Development of the modern global entrepreneurship is one of the most perspective and promising means of overcoming the consequences of the global economic crisis, as well as prevention of future crises of economic systems, as it ensures full level of optimization of production and distribution processes. The purpose of the article is to determine perspectives of sustainable development of the global entrepreneurship. For determining the level of sustainability of development of the modern global entrepreneurship, the authors use the methods of statistical analysis of time rows (method of horizontal and trend analysis). The authors perform a complex analysis of dynamics of development of global companies and performed evaluation of their sustainability. Also, the necessity for changing the model of managing the development of modern global entrepreneurship for increasing its sustainability is substantiated. As a result, it is concluded that modern global entrepreneurship is developing in the unstable way, and practical recommendations are offered for solving this problem. A perspective model of sustainable development of the modern global entrepreneurship is developed and presented. A certain limitation of the results of the performed research is the framework character of the offered recommendations.