Firm turnover,restructuring and labour productivity in transition: the case of Poland

Many studies have found strong and positive relationship between per capita income and health care expenditure. These studies usually adopt the assumptions that (1) the relationships among the variables are constant; and/or (2) the supply-side market for health care could be treated by using standard demand functions models. To take into account of the supply side of health care, we use the demand and supply approach with the cointegration model to re-examine this issue. By using Taiwan health care expenditure data, our results show that the real income elasticity is smaller than unity and the health care expenditures are primarily for ‘curing’ rather than ‘caring’.     

Modelling demand and supply influences on utilization: A flow demand model to predict hospital utilization at the small area level

This study outlines a model to predict hospital utilization at the small area level within a National Health Service (NHS) institutional context. The proposed approach departs from alternative analyses based on utilization flows of hospital care between a local population and a hospital. A flow demand model is outlined that relates flow demand to utilization flows; models the interaction between hospital supply and utilization of alternative hospitals; captures the process of demand for hospital care, with special attention given to the role of other health care sectors, to the organizational and institutional context of the hospital system and to geographic variations. The flow approach partly overcomes the problem of dealing with simultaneity of determination between supply and demand. A two-part econometric model suitable to estimate the flow demand model for prediction purposes is tested and applied to the Portuguese health care system. The results show the model to be robust and to provide key information for defining future hospital policies at the central level.     

Forecasting requirements for health care personnel

Accurate forecasting of requirements for health care personnel is an important part of avoiding significant imbalances that create costly inefficiencies in health care markets. Manpower shortages threaten access, quality, and costs of health care. This article reviews five general approaches previously used to determine manpower requirements. Suggestions are made for the analytic components of a comprehensive model for identifying significant imbalances in supply or demand for health care workers.     

Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan

The paper presents a small macro model for Pakistan economy focusing the impact of investment in human capital on the key macroeconomic variables. The demand side is modeled along the Keynesian lines while the supply side is modeled as per neoclassical theory of production. This framework allows analyzing the effects of investment in human capital on supply side variables (like labor, physical and human capital) and demand side variables (like consumption and investment) at the same time.The model has small forecasting horizon in which three alternative scenarios regarding government spending on education are evaluated from 2012 to 2016. The model shows that the link between human capital and labor market is weak however a change in education spending affects output through enhancing productivity and through multiplier-accelerator principle. Though the model is small in size and forecasting horizon, it can help in evaluating the future paths of key macroeconomic variables associated with education spending.     

The demand and supply of credit for households

The demand and supply of credit in the rural credit markets is investigated in this article using household data from India. The aim is to study the effects of household, farm productive characteristics and the policy variables on the demand and supply of credit. A type 3 Tobit model is estimated which corrects for sample selection and endogeniety bias. In addition, a generalized Double Hurdle model is estimated where the information on the household's access to credit is included to estimate the demand and supply of credit. The results suggest that the size of the operational holdings, net-wealth, dependency ratio, educational level of the household and the wages and output prices are important determinants of the demand and supply of credit for farm households. The Double Hurdle model confirms that the ‘size of land owned’ plays a crucial role in whether the household has access to a loan or not.     

An estimation of the demand and supply for physician services using a panel data

Using the single-equation and simultaneous equations methods, demand and supply for physician services at medical practices are estimated with panel data, which is primarily based on American Medical Association divisional surveys. Fixed effects and no-effects models are employed for estimation of the parameters of the simultaneous equations and their elasticities. The results suggest that the demand is highly income inelastic. However, private insurance and Medicaid raise the rate of utilization. The adverse effect of uninsured is also evident, though it is not as high as private insurance. Evidence also supports the demand inducement hypothesis and points to the rising demand for health care as the U.S. population is aging. The supply function parameters generally demonstrate their expected pattern. It is notable that the malpractice liability premiums exhibit a negligible effect on the supply of office visits.     

Financing medical specialist services in The Netherlands: Welfare implications of imperfect agency

Since 1995 the financing scheme for medical specialist services in the Netherlands has moved from a fee-for-service scheme to a capitation scheme. This paper analyzes the economic and welfare effects of this policy change. The paper adopts a numerical model that integrates demand and supply considerations and that recognizes the potential roles of moral hazard and supplier-induced demand. The paper finds that the shift in financing regime has been welfare-reducing. The policy change induced medical specialists to lower the supply of the health services which was already lower than optimal before the policy reform.     

Integrated water and economic modelling of the impacts of water market instruments on the South African economy

A static computable general equilibrium model of South Africa is adapted to compare new taxes on water demand by two industries, namely forestry, and irrigated field crops. Comparisons are made with respect to both the short and the long run, in terms of three target variables, namely (i) the environment; (ii) the economy; and (iii) equity. Since the taxes on the two industries do not raise the same amount of revenue, the target variables are calculated per unit of real government revenue raised by the new taxes (also referred to as the marginal excess burdens of the taxes). The model results are robust for moderate values of the water elasticity of demand in the two industries, in both the long and the short run. The tax on irrigated field crops performs better in terms of all three the target variables in the short run. In the long run the tax on irrigated filed crops is better in terms of water saving, but reduces real GDP and the consumption by poor households.     

中国老人医疗保障与医疗服务需求的实证分析

本文采用2005年中国老年健康长寿调查数据库(CLHLS)22省调查数据,建立了中国65岁以上老年人群的医疗服务需求模型,实证分析了医疗保障对老人医疗服务需求的影响。本文的主要结果如下:第一,医保制度对老人医疗服务的影响主要表现在提高就医程度,而非就医选择行为的改变,同时医保制度又明显地促进了老人及时就医率。第二,医保制度对减轻老人家庭医疗负担具有显著作用。第三,城镇医保和公费医疗所发挥的作用明显高于其他保险形式。本文的基本判断是,国家医保政策在改善中国老人医疗服务利用和减轻老人家庭医疗负担方面确实发挥了良好的积极作用,并且更多惠及了就医必要性更大的老年人群,从资源配置角度看是提高效率的。因此,进一步推进全民基本医疗保障制度的建设不仅是国家惠及全民的医改重任,也是中国医疗卫生应对老龄化挑战的有效选择。     

科技创新政策供需匹配模型构建及实证研究

科技创新政策供给成为促进创新活动开展的关键动因。匹配度检测与评估是科技创新政策管理的保障措施,是基于证据的科技创新政策调整依据。运用供需匹配理论,引入政策供需主体共同作用对象——科技创新政策,构建科技创新政策供需匹配架构。以2014年9月至2017年7月中共中央国务院、发改委、商务部、财务部、科技部发布的82份科技创新政策文件,以及采用问卷调查法对科研院所、高等院校、企业管理人员的调研结果为依托,实证研究中国科技创新政策供需错位问题。结果表明：在供需匹配理论模型中引入调节变量——科技创新政策,可以研究科技创新政策供需匹配状况;在供给导向性政策和环境导向性政策方面,科研院所、企业与政策供给主体的匹配度相对较低。     

THE INFLATION AND SUPPLY SIDE CONSEQUENCES OF DEMAND SIDE SHOCKS*

This paper outlines a small general equilibrium model derived under the assumptions of imperfect competition and non-constant returns to scale Cobb-Douglas technology. The model is used to simulate the short-run supply side effects of a demand shock. The simulation results reveal that demand shocks lower prices and result in positive supply side effects, which in turn strengthen the positive demand side effects on unemployment.     

Plans,disequilibria and macroeconomic policy simulations

In the paper some specific problems of applying a disequilibrium model of a centrally planned economy for policy simulation experiments are analysed. It is shown that a model in which demand, supply and plan output variables are simultaneously introduced can be used for policy simulation in a more effective way than a model which describes either demand or supply side of an economy. In the empirical part of the paper a disequilibrium-type model of the Polish economy is used for simulating alternative internal and external economic policies for 1971–80. It has been found that internal deflationary policies would have been relatively efficient in minimizing consumption excess demand at a given level of consumption output in the period investigated.     

MONTHLY GDP FORECASTING USING BRIDGE MODELS: APPLICATION FOR THE FRENCH ECONOMY

This paper presents a model to predict French gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly economic information through bridge models, for both supply and demand sides, allowing thus economic interpretations. For each GDP component, bridge equations are specified by using a general‐to‐specific approach implemented in an automated way by Hoover and Perez and improved by Krolzig and Hendry. This approach allows to select explanatory variables among a large data set of hard and soft data. A rolling forecast study is carried out to assess the forecasting performance in the prediction of aggregated GDP, by taking publication lags into account in order to run pseudo real‐time forecasts. It turns out that the model outperforms benchmark models. The results show that changing the set of equations over the quarter is superior to keeping the same equations over time. In addition, GDP growth seems to be more precisely predicted from a supply‐side approach rather than a demand‐side approach.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Hospital Care inflation in the United States: prices adjustments in a disequilibrium econometric framework

Uncontrollable medical care expenditure inflation in excess of general price inflation in the United States has prompted the writing of this paper. It is argued that such a frustrating phenomenon is due to the existence of disequilibrium in the hospital market. This phenomenon can be verified only by modelling the market by disequilibrium methods. In this paper, a model of price adjustment in non-clearing market is presented and tested by using autoregressive techniques. It is found that excess demand for hospital care has been the source of disequilibrium for a large part of the period of the study, 1965–1984. It is observed then the key factor causing excess demand is low out-of-pocket expenditure for hospital care by patients due to third-party payments. Had the co-insurance rate been adjusted upward or co-payment patient rate not fallen, excess demand would have been eliminated. This study also finds that the response of providers and regulators to cost inflation through price control policy seems to be ineffective in bringing the market to a state of equilibrium.     

Imperfect Competition and the Gains from Trade in a Macro Duopoly Model

A general-equilibrium duopoly trade model is developed. In the micro model, constant-elasticity market demand curves produce backward-bending reaction functions. This is combined with a macro analysis in which the real wage is determined competitively, while nominal variables depend on the money supply. Trade can lead to large increases in aggregate output, employment, and real wages. The gains from trade are the result of increases in market size, and greater competition in each market. The benefits of trade are largest when marginal-cost curves slope downward and the labor supply curve is elastic.     

Supply and demand explanations and their ceteris paribusclauses

This paper argues that supply and demand explantions are causal explanations and that it is helpful to recognize this fact explicity, for then one can appreciate that the variables impounded in the ceteris paribusclauses attached to supply and demand curves are other causes. One can then specify clearly the conditions of membership in a ceteris pairbusclause: 1) include all those factors that within the given time period significantly affect the amount supplied or demanded but; 2) do not include any factors that themselves within the given time period significantly depend on the price of the particular commodity or service. Note the vague word ‘significantly’. If one insists on the general interdependencies established in general equilibrium analyses, one must reject partial equilibrium analyses altogether, but to do so would rule out work that may be enlightening and useful. Such theoretical purism is also indefensible, since general equilibrium analyse rely on similar causal approximations. This analyses of ceteris paribusclauses is helpful in understanding where supply and demand analysis or comparative statics goes wrong, as in traditional functional distribution theory.     

On modeling the agricultural sector in developing economies: An integrated approach of micro and macroeconomics

The paper introduces a theoretically consistent and empirically implementable method for the construction of general equilibrium models of the agricultural sector in a developing economy. The point of departure is the agricultural household, for which the microeconomic behavioral relations are formulated based on the assumption of utility and profit maximization. These relations are estimated from microeconomic data. In the second step the estimated microeconomic behavioral relations are aggregated across households into the macroeconomic behavioral relations, i.e., the supply and demand functions for the agricultural sector. Third, the linkage equations between the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy are specified on the basis of alternative assumptions on environmental and institutional characteristics and they are estimated from macroeconomic data. Finally, the macroeconomic behavioral relations and linkage equations are combined to provide a general equilibrium solution of the agricultural sector. The solution of the alternative equilibrium models can be used for comparative statics analysis of government policies and of changes in other exogenous variables. The illustrative application of the model is based on Indian data.     

中国通用航空产业补贴效率及最优补贴制度研究—以低空飞行服务业为例

补贴效率是检验补贴制度设计合理性、运行有效性的核心标准。研究发现,我国通用航空飞行服务业补贴制度存在相对供给挤占、暂时性收益陷阱、恶性亏损经营和资金体内循环4类突出的效率损失及福利侵蚀问题,补贴对通航运营企业经营效益提升无显著影响。立足补贴效率受损形式并顺应有效供给和需求严重不足的产业发展矛盾,以社会福利和外部性为核心,从结构重塑、机制优化两个维度出发,全面建立我国通用航空飞行服务业补贴制度并探讨最优补贴边界,最大化补贴效益。首先,以需求二维影响机制为理论支撑,搭建“需求侧保险费率补贴制度+供给端弹性补贴计划”的双侧补贴模式,减缓有效供需规模偏小对企业短期非理性补贴行为的过度激化。其次,从调整补贴标准、丰富补贴层次、规范补贴流程、定位补贴属性4个方面着手深度优化供给侧补贴计划,并以应用事后补贴安排、筹建再保险补贴基金的形式细化需求侧补贴内容,以期最大程度减少补贴效率损耗对预期补贴福利的影响。