The Variability of IPO Initial Returns

The monthly volatility of IPO initial returns is substantial, fluctuates dramatically over time, and is considerably larger during “hot” IPO markets. Consistent with IPO theory, the volatility of initial returns is higher for firms that are more difficult to value because of higher information asymmetry. Our findings highlight underwriters’ difficulty in valuing companies characterized by high uncertainty, and raise serious questions about the efficacy of the traditional firm‐commitment IPO process. One implication of our results is that alternate mechanisms, such as auctions, could be beneficial for firms that value price discovery over the auxiliary services provided by underwriters.     

Initial and Long-Run IPO Returns in Central and Eastern Europe

ABSTRACT

This article provides original evidence on IPO underpricing and long-run underperformance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and compares results to the European Union’s developed capital markets from 2000 to 2009. Using both index-adjusted and CAPM-adjusted returns, we find significant underpricing that is significantly higher than underpricing of comparable IPOs in the European Union’s developed capital markets. We show that the CEE’s initial IPO returns also exhibit significantly higher volatility. In line with the asymmetric information theory, we indicate that smaller IPOs in the CEE region have greater underpricing than the larger IPOs. Contrary to the literature, we unambiguously confirm long-run underperformance toward the benchmarks. In some model specifications, we also find that IPO long-run underperformance in the CEE region is less present than in the European Union’s developed capital markets.     

Underwriter Reputation, Initial Returns, and the Long-Run Performance of IPO Stocks

We find that the underperformance of IPO stocks relative to the market over a three-year holding period is less severe for IPOs handled by more prestigious underwriters. Consistent with prior studies, we also find that IPOs managed by more reputable underwriters are associated with less short-run underpricing. Among the various existing proxies for underwriter reputation, the Carter–Manaster measure is the most significant in the context of initial returns and also in the context of the three-year performance of IPOs. The study also provides an updated list of the Carter–Manaster measure for various underwriters.     

IPO上市首日收益率的星期效应——来自深圳中小企业板的证据

本文借助非参数检验和稳健回归的方法,研究了深圳中小企业板IPO上市首日收益率的星期效应。结果表明:在整个样本期存在星期效应,即星期四的IPO平均上市首日收益率显著高于其他交易日,并且星期四IPO的数量最少;这种效应不能用风险来解释;在控制IPO抑价因素后仍然存在;这种效应在不同时期存在差异,这可能与IPO的数量有关。     

Public Information, IPO Price Formation, and Long-Run Returns: Japanese Evidence

The price formation process of JASDAQ IPOs is more transparent than in the United States. The transparency facilitates analysis of important issues in the IPO literature—why offer prices only partially adjust to public information and adjust more fully to negative information, and why adjustments are related to initial returns. The evidence indicates that early price information conveys the underwriter's commitment to compensate investors for acquiring and/or disclosing information. Offer prices reflect pre-IPO market values of public companies and implicit agreements between underwriters and issuers that originate well before the offering. Underadjustment of offer prices is substantially reversed in the aftermarket.     

IPO首日超额收益率影响因素分析

本文对2000年至2012年期间上海证券交易所新股IPO首日的超额收益率进行了总体分析,发现沪市新股IPO首日超额收益率均值水平高达109.7%。明显高于纽约、香港和新加坡证券市场。基于沪市的高超额收益率水平及属性结构特征,本文从公司自身因素、市场因素和制度因素三个层面构建了IPO首日超额收益率影响因素指标体系,并采用因子分析和多元回归分析相结合的方法对IPO首日超额收益率的影响因素进行了分析。分析发现,规模因子、上市市场成熟度因子和收益性因子对新股首日收盘收益率起负向影响作用,而上市公司成长能力因子则起正向影响作用;保荐制审核方式比通道制方式下的新股首日超额收益率小,网下询价、网上定价发行方式则比其他发行方式首日收盘收益率大。     

Evidence on Price Stabilization and Underpricing in Early IPO Returns

Using data on 560 firm-commitment initial public offerings of common stock for the 1982–1983 period, we find that the cross-sectional distribution of one-day returns is modeled better as a mixture of two distributions, with the parameter estimates of one distribution being consistent with underpricing and the other with price stabilization. Further, the evidence that early IPO returns are drawn from a mixture distribution persists for at least four weeks. The implications of these results for the analysis of IPO returns are illustrated by examining the influence of a measure of ex ante price uncertainty on IPO pricing.     

The Thrift IPO as the First Stage of its Subsequent Sale

Although the underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) has been well documented, the underpricing of foreign IPOs have received relatively little attention. In a comparative analysis of foreign and domestic IPOs in the U.S. market for the 1990-1993 period, we find that for a matched sample, foreign IPOs are significantly more underpriced. Our results are consistent with the models developed by Rock (1986), Beatty and Ritter (1986), and Carter and Manaster (1990). Examination of the characteristics of foreign IPOs reveals that they are more likely to be larger in size, employ more prestigious underwriters and are much more likely to list on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).     

Assets in Place, Growth Opportunities, and IPO Returns

We consider a simple model positing that initial public offering price is equal to the present value of an entity's assets in place and growth opportunities. The model predicts that initial return is positively related to both the size and risk of growth opportunities. Consistent with this prediction, we find initial return to be positively related to both the fraction of the offer price that is accounted for by the present value of growth opportunities and various proxies of issue uncertainty. We also find that IPO investors equate one dollar of growth opportunities to approximately three quarters of tangible assets.     

Information Collection and IPO Underpricing

This study provides new evidence that IPO underpricing is economic rents paid for investor to gather costly information. Subrahmanyam and Titman (1999) report that diverse investor information, once aggregated in the public market, could provide a more informative stock price and accurate feedback to firm’s investment decision. I investigate the hypothesis that IPO underpricing as economic rents could be higher, when investor information is diverse. In support of this hypothesis, I find a positive and significant correlation between the extent of underpricing and the information diversity measure proposed by Barron et al. (1998). There is a positive and significant correlation between this information diversity measure and an IPO firm’s subsequent (absolute) change in capital and R&D expenditures. In addition, firms with high information diversity measure and change in subsequent investment exhibit a better subsequent return performance than firms with low diversity and change in investment. This is consistent with the proposition that investor information serves as useful feedback for managers in the IPO market.JEL Classification: G32     

The Nature and Persistence of Initial Public Offering Aftermarket Returns Predictability

This paper examines the predictability of monthly aftermarket returns of initial public offerings during the first six years of trading. Predictability is tested under the null hypothesis of random walk using a Markov chain analysis. The evidence shows that excess returns of IPOs (adjusted for the return on the equally weighted NASDAQ index) demonstrate non-random walk behavior through the first five years of trading and random walk behavior in the sixth year. This is accompanied by predictability of monthly excess returns conditioned on the two previous months' excess returns. A trading strategy is offered to capitalize on the predictability patterns. Implementing the trading strategy is not possible due to institutional barriers, providing additional explanation for why IPOs do not reach their intrinsic values for extended periods of time.     

Information content of IPO grading

In the year 2007, Indian capital market regulator-SEBI, introduced a unique certification mechanism for IPOs whereby all IPOs have to undergo mandatory quality grading by independent rating agencies. In this paper we argue that such objective, independent and exogenous certifying mechanism provides a better opportunity to test the well established certification hypothesis, especially in the context of emerging markets with institutional voids. Using a sample of 163 Indian IPOs we test the efficacy of IPO grading mechanism. We find, grading decreases IPO underpricing and positively influences demand of retail investors. Grading reduces secondary market risk and improves liquidity. However, grading does not affect long run performance of the IPOs. IPO grading successfully capture firm size, business group affiliation and firm’s quality of corporate governance. Our findings imply that, in emerging markets, regulator’s role to signal the quality of an IPO contributes towards the market welfare.     

Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns

There is substantial evidence of short‐term stock price continuation, which the prior literature often attributes to investor behavioral biases such as underreaction to new information. This paper investigates the role of information uncertainty in price continuation anomalies and cross‐sectional variations in stock returns. If short‐term price continuation is due to investor behavioral biases, we should observe greater price drift when there is greater information uncertainty. As a result, greater information uncertainty should produce relatively higher expected returns following good news and relatively lower expected returns following bad news. My evidence supports this hypothesis.     

Information Uncertainty and Expected Returns

This study examines the role of information uncertainty (IU) in predicting cross-sectional stock returns. We define IU in terms of “value ambiguity,” or the precision with which firm value can be estimated by knowledgeable investors at reasonable cost. Using several different proxies for IU, we show that (1) on average, high-IU firms earn lower future returns (the “mean” effect), and (2) price and earnings momentum effects are much stronger among high-IU firms (the “interaction” effect). These findings are consistent with analytical models in which high IU exacerbates investor overconfidence and limits rational arbitrage.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

基于模糊信息处理的高校选课系统构建

目前,高校普遍开发和使用选修课网络系统,该软件的性能对高校学分制具有非常重要的意义.在本文中,建立了高校选修课网络系统的一个模糊数学模型,采用模糊信息处理技术,使得选课结果科学合理.     

IPO价值信息传递与投资银行金融认证

本文遵循金融认证理论的研究路径,构建了IPO价值信息的传递与投资银行金融认证的理论模型,实证结果表明:(1)首发市盈率与投资银行的综合竞争力正相关,即综合竞争能力越强的投资银行,其承销的IPO发行市盈率越高.另外,综合竞争能力越强的投资银行,其承销IPO募集资金用途发生变更的企业比例、上市后违规企业的比例以及曾被ST的公司比例均相对较低.(2)新股抑价程度与投资银行的认证成本负相关,但缺乏统计显著性.(3)新股抑价与中签率负相关,与IPO风险测度正相关;新股抑价与投资银行类型的负相关缺乏显著性.(4)IPO中签率与投行认证信息因子、发行价格信息因子的关系缺乏统计显著性;中签率与投资银行的声誉信息因子显著正相关.本文最后提出了相关建议.     

Analyst Following and Equity Offerings Subsequent to Initial Public Offerings

Analyst forecast information is collected for firms following their IPOs and is used in an examination of subsequent seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Consistent with information asymmetry arguments, the analysis indicates that a larger percentage of firms conducting SEOs within three years of the IPO are covered by financial analysts than those without SEOs, and that analyst coverage is a significant predictor of subsequent SEOs. In addition, the results indicate that long-term earnings growth forecasts are larger for firms with subsequent SEOs, but growth forecasts decline significantly following the SEOs. Further, SEO abnormal returns exhibit a significant negative relationship with earnings growth forecasts. These results are consistent with windows of opportunity arguments since they suggest that SEOs are timed to coincide with the peak of earnings growth expectations, but that market participants compensate by reacting more negatively to offerings by firms with high growth forecasts.     

The Timing and Subsequent Performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

Companies that have listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange by means of a public offering between 1980 and 1991 have subsequently performed poorly. This long run post issue performance is remarkably consistent with the South African evidence for seasoned rights issuing companies and the international evidence for both initial public offerings (IPOs) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Over the four years post issue, the newly listed companies earned an average return of 18.0% as opposed to 81.5% for a size-matched sample of seasoned companies. This study adds to the increasing body of international evidence suggesting the IPO under performance 'puzzle' referred to by Ibbotson (1975), Loughran and Ritter (1995) and Spiess and Affleck-Graves (1995) is not simply sample or country specific.