Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments

Using a new technique, and weekly data for 25 countries from1994 to 1998, we analyze the relationship between institutionalcross-border portfolio flows, and domestic and foreign equityreturns. In emerging markets, institutional flows forecast statisticallyindistinguishable movements in country closed-end fund NAV returnsand price returns. In contrast, closed-end fund flows forecastprice returns, but not NAV returns. Furthermore, institutionalflows display trend-following (trend-reversing) behavior inresponse to symmetric (asymmetric) movements in NAV and pricereturns. The results suggest that institutional cross-borderflows are linked to fundamentals, while closed-end fund flowsare a source of price pressure in the short run.     

Why Does Performance Persistence Vary Among Closed-End Funds?

This study extends the research on closed-end fund performance persistence by investigating whether the persistence of both net asset value (NAV) and market price returns of U.S. registered closed-end funds is related to various fund characteristics. The sample consists of 505 closed-end funds, which are investigated over the period from January 1976 to December 1996. The analysis tests whether persistence is related to the fund characteristics size, goal, management fees, turnover, fund family membership, fund experience, and the exchange on which a fund is traded. The results vary across holding periods used to calculate persistence but are similar with respect to the NAV and market price returns. Funds with lower expense ratios and funds traded on the NYSE show more persistence of strong NAV and market price performance.     

Overreaction diamonds: precursors and aftershocks for significant price changes

Overreactions and other behavioral effects in stock prices can best be examined by adjusting for the changes in fundamentals. We perform this by subtracting the relative price changes in the net asset value (NAV) from that of market price (MP) daily for 134 406 data points of closed-end funds trading in US markets. We examine the days before and after a significant rise or fall in price deviation and MP return and find evidence of overreaction in the days after the change. Prior to a spike in deviation we find a gradual two- or three-day decline (and analogously in the other direction). Overall, there is a characteristic diamond pattern, revealing a symmetry in deviations before and after the significant change. Much of the statistical significance and the patterns disappear when the subtraction of NAV return is eliminated, suggesting that the frequent changes in fundamentals mask behavioral effects. A second study subdivides the data depending on whether the NAV or market price is responsible for the spike in the relative difference. In a majority of spikes, it is the change in market price rather than NAV that is dominant. Among those spikes for which there is little or no change in NAV, the results are similar to the overall study. Furthermore, the upward spikes are preceded by one or two days of declining market price while NAV rises slightly or is relatively unchanged. This suggests that a cause of the spike may be due to over-positioning of traders in the opposite direction in anticipation.     

Payout policies and closed-end fund discounts: Signaling, agency costs, and the role of institutional investors

The adoption of a managed distribution policy or plan (MDP) by closed-end funds appears effective in dramatically reducing, even eliminating, fund discounts. We investigate two possible explanations: the signaling explanation proposed in the literature, that the MDP serves as a positive signal of future fund performance, and an alternative explanation based on agency costs. Our results indicate that signaling is, at best, only part of the explanation and that the evidence is generally more consistent with the agency cost hypothesis. For funds adopting aggressive payout targets of 10% (median target) and above, discounts tend to disappear, though there is no discernible improvement in NAV performance. Consistent with the agency cost hypothesis, it is often pressure from institutions/large shareholders that leads to the adoption of aggressive payout policies. Moreover, aggressive-MDPs are associated with a decrease in fund size and managerial fees. Suggestive of their activist role in MDP adoptions and/or informed trading, institutions – especially ones that are Value oriented – tend to build-up their holdings in a fund prior to the adoption of an aggressive-MDP, and liquidate their positions once the price rises.     

‘Open-ending’ closed-end funds

Open-ending a closed-end fund forces the price of the fund's shares to their net asset value. Open-ending behavior is shown to correspond in predictable ways to the incentive to open-end and to potential resistance to open-ending. Moreover, closed-end fund share prices begin to generate statistically significant positive abnormal returns well in advance of the formal announcement of the open-ending. Although a small part of the total abnormal return is not entirely exhausted until after the announcement, such market price performance is broadly consistent with a semi-strong form efficient market.     

Closed-End Funds: A Survey

This survey reviews the evolving literature on closed-end fund discounts. Many studies have attempted to explain the existence and the behavior of the discount to net asset value, emphasizing biases in the calculation of NAV, agency costs, tax-timing options and market segmentation. None has been able to provide a full explanation. As a result, some researchers have found it necessary to resort to models of limited rationality. This gives rise to potential opportunities for exploiting the discount. We summarize the findings from over 70 studies of closed-end funds, and present directions for future research.     

Short sale restrictions,differences of opinion,and single-country,closed-end fund discount

The purpose of this paper is to study the closed-end fund discount in Miller's (1977) framework. Miller's theory states that in the simultaneous presence of (1) short sale restrictions and (2) dispersion of investors' opinions, securities become overvalued. We show that discounts of single-country, closed-end funds are related to Miller's two conditions. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that neither dispersion of investor opinion nor short sale restrictions alone are positively related to the discount. However, when both conditions exist simultaneously, fund discounts increase.     

On the Perils of Financial Intermediaries Setting Security Prices: The Mutual Fund Wild Card Option

Economic distortions can arise when financial claims trade at prices set by an intermediary rather than direct negotiation between principals. We demonstrate the problem in a specific context, the exchange of open-end mutual fund shares. Mutual funds typically set fund share price (NAV) using an algorithm that fails to account for nonsynchronous trading in the fund's underlying securities. This results in predictable changes in NAV, which lead to exploitable trading opportunities. A modification to the pricing algorithm that corrects for nonsynchronous trading eliminates much of the predictability. However, there are many other potential sources of distortion when intermediaries set prices.     

Why do closed-end country funds trade at enormous premiums during currency crises?

We investigate the response of US traded country fund premiums to currency crises in related foreign (local) markets. Our analysis includes 25 currency crises over the past decade involving 18 funds investing in 12 emerging markets, and 7 funds investing in 6 developed markets. We find that fund premiums and the volatility of the premiums increase dramatically in response to a currency crisis, both for emerging and developed markets funds, and that these effects dissipate slowly over time. Our results show that country fund shares and net asset values (NAVs) have differential risk exposures and that these differences are exacerbated during a crisis. While the NAV returns show sensitivity to changes in the local market index, share returns are sensitive to changes in both local and world market indices. Therefore, in response to a currency crisis, when local stock markets decrease in value, fund NAVs react more strongly than their share prices which have a strong global component. We also show that the high premiums observed during currency crises are not due to the reluctance of investors to trade and realize losses.     

An empirical analysis of Mexican and US closed-end mutual fund IPOs

We examine 135 Mexican closed-end fund IPOs and 370 Mexican non-fund IPOs that issued between 1994 and 2003 along with 217 contemporaneous US fund IPOs and document three primary results. First, we find that Mexican IPOs in the aggregate experience no significant underpricing, unlike their US IPO counterparts. Both Mexican and US IPOs experience significantly negative long-run performance. Second, Mexican closed-end fund IPOs experience positive long-run performance, significantly better than Mexican non-fund IPOs which experience negative long-run performance. Unlike Mexican fund IPOs, US fund IPOs experience negative long-run performance. Third, we find that both Mexican and US debt-backed closed-end fund IPOs significantly outperform equity-backed closed-end IPOs. In Mexico, debt-backed funds experience positive abnormal returns, compared to negative abnormal returns for Mexican equity-backed funds, US debt-backed funds, and US equity-backed funds.     

Evidence on the Mean-Reverting Tendencies of Closed-End Fund Discounts

Closed‐end fund (CEF) discounts vary widely over time due to changes in share price, net asset value (NAV), or both. Prior studies suggest discounts are mean‐reverting. We examine the mean‐reversion issue by employing cointegration procedures. Specifically, we identify bond and equity CEFs that exhibit stationary time‐series properties and find statistically significant error correction terms that quantify the speed of mean reversion. The results indicate that mean reversion is caused by changes in both share price and NAVs. However, CEFs can only provide excess returns when the discount narrows due to share price increases.     

Stock Returns and Volatility under Market Segmentation: The Case of Chinese A and B Shares

In most countries where firms list separate shares for trading by foreign and domestic investors, the prices of the foreign shares tend to be higher. In China, the reverse tends to be true. In this paper, we would like to focus on the information content in lagged premiums of Chinese A over B traded shares. The lagged premiums are found to have certain predictive power over the future returns and volatility of both A and B shares, with some interesting patterns. Specifically, an increase in the premium ratio of A shares will be followed by a rise in the return of A shares and a fall in the return of B shares. It is found that both of the investors in Chinese A- and B-share markets reveal positive feedback trading behavior. Moreover, the liquidity and information availability will affect the magnitude of such behavior especially in B-share markets. By using multivariate GARCH model, it is also demonstrated that the unexpected changes in the premium ratio of A-share price over B-share price contribute to the return volatility of both A shares and B shares. These patterns may provide foundations for the development of pricing models for equity shares under market segmentation.     

The information content of closed-end country fund discounts

This paper examines whether premiums and discounts on closed-end country mutual funds (CECFs) contain useful information about future returns. We find that higher CECF premiums are associated both with higher future returns on the relevant foreign market index and with higher future NAV returns after controlling for the foreign market return. CECFs trading at large discounts are not necessarily bargains, because their future NAV performance can be expected to be relatively poor.     

INVESTMENT TRUST DISCOUNTS AND ABNORMAL RETURNS: UK EVIDENCE

Attempts to explain the apparent anomaly of the discount to Net Asset Value of investment trust (or closed-end fund) shares have had little success. The present study of UK monthly data finds that investment trust shares selected on the basis of high (low) discounts tend to experience high (low) abnormal returns in the year following selection, which implies mean reversion in the discounts and hence market inefficiency. Furthermore, evidence is presented that the Net Asset Value and the price of investment trust shares are cointegrated, which implies the existence of profitable trading rules based on the identification of Error Correction Mechanisms.     

How Informative Is Floating NAV When Securities Trade Infrequently?

We examine if a floating net asset value (NAV) increases the transparency of risk for investors. Using closed‐income fixed income funds we find little evidence that a floating NAV helps investors better understand the value and risk of a fund when a fund's assets trade infrequently. This potentially informs the debate regarding the adoption of a floating NAV in the money market industry. Our results suggest that it is unlikely that the benefits of floating NAV will outweigh the costs.     

Risk characteristics of closed-end stock fund IPOs

We examine 34 closed-end stock fund initial public offerings (IPOs) during the period of January 1, 1986, through June 30, 1987. We find that the funds have low systematic risk during their first trading months, especially the initial month. We also observe that the funds' beta risk tends to increase as the funds season in aftermarket trading. This pattern is in sharp contrast to new issues by nonfinancial corporations, which have very high initial betas that decline over time.     

INVESTOR TAX-TRADING OPPORTUNITIES AND DISCOUNTS ON CLOSED-END MUTUAL FUNDS

Discounts on closed-end mutual funds are a puzzle to financial economists, because arbitrage activities should eliminate discounts in a perfect capital market. In this paper I develop a model that explains discounts, using Merton's option pricing theorem. By holding shares of a closed-end mutual fund, investors lose valuable tax-trading opportunities associated with the constituent securities of the closed-end mutual fund's portfolio. However, investors can take advantage of all tax-trading opportunities by directly holding the closed-end mutual fund's portfolio. I also show that both variances of individual securities and correlations among securities in the portfolio are important factors in determining the magnitude of discounts.     

Closed-End Fund Discounts with Informed Ownership Differential

We develop a multiasset trading model to examine the closed-end fund discount. The model shows that the discount can arise if the quality of private information in the underlying assets is sufficiently better than in the fund. The model also indicates that a discount (premium) can arise if the excessive volatility of the fund dominates (is dominated by) the fund's diversification benefit. Moreover, the model predicts a negative relation between the discount and the institutional ownership differential, as arbitrageurs prefer funds with large discounts. Using a sample of U.S. equity closed-end funds, we test these predictions and find supporting evidence. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D82, G10, G12, G14.     

Pricing of national index funds

This article investigates the pricing behavior of national index funds (NIFs). Under barriers to capital flows in an otherwise perfect capital market, the familiar result of zero premium/discount obtains. The more realistic assumption of imperfect cross-border arbitrage suggests that in a two country setting the NIFs will sell at a premium. In a multicountry framework, the investment barriers will result in NIFs generally trading at a premium, although theoretically one cannot rule out a discount from net asset value (NAV). A simple test supports the proposition that under investment barriers, NIFs should trade at a premium to NAV after controlling for the average domestic closed-end fund discount.     

Outsourcing accounting information systems: Evidence from closed-end mutual fund families

This study examines the factors associated with the decision of closed-end funds to outsource their accounting information systems. Using data from 2010 and 2011, we find that the outsourcing decision is made by groups of funds with common service providers (called “fund families”), rather than by individual funds. Our results indicate that fund families containing a larger number of funds and older fund families are less likely to outsource their accounting functions. These types of fund families may have greater internal economies of scale, diminishing the potential cost savings from outsourcing. We also find that fund families with more good-faith-valued assets are less likely to outsource accounting information systems than those with more market-valued assets. Valuing these good-faith-valued assets is both an important investment-management process and a key accounting task, reducing the need to outsource accounting to focus managers on their core competency. This study is of potential importance to investors and regulators in evaluating closed-end funds' decisions on outsourcing accounting functions.