Social marketing with challenging target groups: smoking cessation in prisons in England and Wales

• Smoking levels among prisoners are much higher than amongst the UK population as a whole. Our research focuses on the development and implementation of a pilot smoking cessation project:
  • Using a social marketing process combined with the Health Behaviour Model, 159 participants, drawn from four prisons, undertook a smoking cessation programme.
  • Data was collected using a case study approach, with a variety of research methods: primarily depth individual and mini‐group qualitative interviews, but also document analysis and observation.
  • The findings draw on prisoners' perspectives in the context of the marketing mix in elements of the strategy design, implementation and evaluation.
  • The discussion identifies the need to maintain a consumer perspective, feeding into the marketing mix, and to identify and promote aspects of mutually beneficial exchange over and above basic health and monetary costs.
• The positive outcomes and insights gained show that using a social marketing strategy, as part of a smoking cessation programme, has important policy and practice implications. Lessons could be applied to other health issues and in similar settings such as forensic mental health.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Are we entering another global ‘soft patch’?

• Global growth has tended to hit ‘soft patches’ at the start of recent years and some indicators are again pointing in that direction at present.
• In the US, we expect GDP growth at around 2% annualised in Q1 based on recent indicators which have included subdued jobs growth and some slowdown in housing.
• Meanwhile, the latest readings for the export orders components of key manufacturing surveys – which are good predictors of world trade growth – suggest some pullback after a modest upturn in the final months of 2013. Trade growth remains especially subdued in Asia, including Japan and China.
• The crisis in Ukraine also poses some downside risks, should it escalate further – in particular the danger of a sharp rise in European gas prices which could harm the still fragile Eurozone economy.
• Overall, we regard most of these factors as temporary and continue to forecast a strengthening global economy over the coming 18 months. US data at the start of this year have been partly dampened by climatic factors, while underlying domestic demand growth in Japan remains robust and the Eurozone outlook has continued to improve slowly.
• As a result, our world GDP growth forecasts are little changed from last month, at 2.8% for 2014 and 3.2% for 2015.
• This forecast is partly underpinned by a renewed pickup in world trade. But there are some risks to this assumption, including the possibility that emerging market countries will have to rapidly improve their current account positions due to the more restrictive external financing conditions associated with US tapering.
• Such an adjustment could put a significant dent in our forecast for world trade growth. For ten large emergers, shifting current account balances to our estimates of their sustainable levels would mean an adjustment of around US$280 billion – around 40% of the increment to world trade that we forecast for 2014.

     

Artists' attitudes to marketing: a cross-cultural perspective

• Although the music industry is dominated by a few global players, the vast majority of musical performances are by nonprofit organisations, self-employed musicians or small and medium enterprises (SMEs). But, while a great deal has been written about the marketing of music—distribution, branding, audience development, etc.—comparatively little is known about the attitudes of musicians themselves to marketing, despite the fact their role as both product and producer is so central to the musical experience.
• The research sets out to gain an understanding of this neglected topic by undertaking a cross-cultural analysis of musicians from two different cultures: it compares the attitudes of artists in a mature, post-industrial economy (UK) with those in a post-communist, emerging democracy (Poland). The research finds that society, culture and the economic environment appear to shape attitudes far less than art itself. Across both cultures the research discovers at best an ambivalence towards marketing, and at worst a general antipathy towards the whole notion of art-as-business.
• The implications of these findings, if replicated across other countries, other musical genres and across the arts as a whole, could be worrying. Historically, the arts have been dominated by nonprofit organisations funded at least in part by public and private subsidies, funds which are being substantially eroded in both mature economies and in developing nations. The challenge for nonprofits and SMEs in the arts, then, is about achieving some sort of engagement with business and marketing, without losing their artistic integrity in the process.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soaring corporate debt is a risk to global growth

• ▀ Corporate borrowing is accelerating as a result of the coronavirus crisis. In part, this is a healthy development as firms look to ride out a period of low or even zero sales. But it also brings potential risks to growth, especially in the longer term, including via lengthy balance sheet restructuring that hurts investment and productivity growth.
• ▀ In the advanced economies, we estimate the aggregate corporate debt/GDP ratio could rise as much as 10ppts in 2020, to 95% of GDP - well above the 2009 peak. Debt service ratios may also rise into risky territory despite low interest rates. Risks look especially elevated in France and Canada.
• ▀ Evidence for both advanced and emerging economies suggests high corporate debt levels can damage growth. Highly indebted firms tend to invest less in both the near and medium terms, and some estimates suggest the rise in aggregate debt this year could cut GDP growth by up to 0.2% per year.
• ▀ The coronavirus crisis may also crystallise some pre-existing risks in corporate debt. Despite government assistance, defaults by low-rated firms have started to rise and commercial real estate prices are falling.
• ▀ Sectoral concentrations of risk may also be intensified and new ones created in industries hit hard by the virus like energy and consumer discretionary sectors.
• ▀ Emerging market corporate debt is also on the rise - sharply in some cases. In some economies, this mostly reflects exchange rate effects. But negative balance sheet effects of this kind are also a risk to growth.

     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: World growth cut as financial woes persist

• This month sees our world GDP forecast for 2016 cut to 2.3%, from 2.6% previously. Our new forecast implies this year will be the weakest for the world economy since 2009.
• Our 2016 growth forecast was over 3% in mid‐2015. But the economic backdrop has worsened markedly since, with steep drops in stock markets, slumping commodities and widening credit spreads.
• We flagged the risks from the financial market sell‐off last month and conditions have improved little since. Worse, there are some signs that weakness in the real economy may be broadening.
• This month's global downgrade partly reflects familiar factors such as worsening emerging markets: we now expect even deeper recessions in Brazil and Russia.
• The US forecast has also been downgraded again, to 2% from 2.4% last month. This in part reflects a soft Q4 GDP reading, one worrying detail of which was a weaker performance by consumer spending.
• Signs of a slowdown in services were also visible in the PMI surveys for January in the US and Eurozone. Partly as a result, our Eurozone growth forecast has been cut this month to 1.6% from 1.8%.
• With world industry already stagnant, signs of weakness spreading to services are unwelcome. We are particularly concerned that the financial market slump will create a negative global credit and confidence shock.
• Another concern is that the collapse in world stock prices is starting to have ‘negative wealth effects’. For most consumers, wealth effects are more likely to be generated by house price moves. In this respect, there is some room for optimism – house prices are still growing in most of the main economies.
• But housing is weakening in some emerging countries and world house and stock prices have tended to move together since 2007.
• Pressures on policymakers to act remain strong and are increasingly focused on using negative interest rates – as in Japan and Sweden in the last month.

     

Why deflation may be a bigger risk than inflation

• ▀ Concerns about high inflation in the medium term are in our view overdone. In fact, we think the bigger risk is some economies sliding into deflation, due to the coronavirus pandemic's long-lasting negative impact on demand, which will intensify existing global disinflationary trends.
• ▀ We do not think the recent acceleration of monetary growth will lead to rapid inflation, despite the strong historic relationship between the two. The current monetary growth is taking place in extremely unusual circumstances, which may alter the usual link with inflation, and may also be temporary.
• ▀ Meanwhile, most market-based measures of deflation risk have risen recently – in some cases to historic highs. Some household surveys point to slightly higher inflation, but this may reflect short-term volatility in prices for key goods.
• ▀ A slide into deflation would have a variety of negative consequences, including feeding back into private saving, weakening growth, and potentially raising debt sustainability issues in some economies.

     

Enhancing occupational health and safety in young workers: the role of social marketing

• Young workers (age 15–24) suffer work‐related injury at a much higher rate than older workers, yet research on the role and effectiveness of social marketing to influence and improve workplace safety is limited.
• A review of the relevant literature reveals that significant gaps exist in terms of effectively using social marketing to reduce young worker injury rates.
• A comprehensive, multi‐faceted social marketing approach is required to address young worker safety.
• Directing more attention toward the practice of social marketing can enhance the effectiveness of campaigns to reduce workplace injuries.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The global bond sell‐off – why and where next?

• The rise in global bond yields since mid‐April has taken markets by surprise. Our analysis suggests that, on balance, some upward correction in yields was justified – especially in the Eurozone. For the US, the evidence is more mixed.
• A variety of explanations have been advanced to explain the bond sell‐off including Eurozone reflation/inflation, looming US rate hikes and associated uncertainty, liquidity and other technical factors, Chinese reflation and a simple reversal of yields overshooting to the downside.
• Some of these explanations are more convincing than others: in our view there is some modest evidence for increased uncertainty and liquidity effects but we also think bonds have corrected from overbought levels, especially in the Eurozone.
• Using some econometric models of bond yields suggests that the recent upward correction of German yields was probably justified; markets had pushed yields too low earlier in 2015. Indeed, the model implies a further ‘corrective’ rise in yields is possible.
• For the US, different models give slightly different results – a variant of the well‐known Shiller‐Modigliani model suggests yields should still be below 2%. However, a broader error‐correction model including factors such as fiscal variables and foreign flows into US bonds suggests the recent rise in yields was broadly justified.

     

What some recent research tells us about planned giving (legacy marketing) in North America

• The transformation of fundraising from an ‘emerging profession’ to a ‘true profession’ is contingent on the continual development of a formal body of knowledge based on theory and research. To further that goal, this paper, written from a Canadian perspective, reviews current and recent research studies in both Canada and the USA, focusing specifically on the areas of legacy marketing and bequest gifts.
• The aim of this paper is two-fold: first, to bring forward ‘established knowledge’ in this relatively new and burgeoning area of fundraising; and second, to draw attention to areas where there is a knowledge gap, thereby laying the groundwork for further research and progress in this area.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What managers need to know about knowledge-based pay

KBP is an innovative compensation approach wiyh some important advantages for both workers and management. It is growing in use, but there is still not much information available to guide managers who want to use it. Our research suggests that each KBP implementation is idiosyncratic. At CARCO, each of the several plants using KBP designed its own KBP plan. They had very little information upon which they could draw. Likewise, at CONCO the plant manager and other key executives set out the philosophy and structure of KBP with very little guidance, except some discussion with one manager who had some experience with it. At this time, each application of KBP must be individually worked out with respect to such issues as the method of evaluation for pay advancement, the levels at which pay increases ought to be granted, and ways to provide opportunities for skill advancement. There are other areas that we need to know more about:

• •⊎ Under what conditions should an organizationwide or job-circle KBP approach be implemented?
• •⊎ How does the relationship between the range of skills and the range of pay affect performance and satisfaction?
• •⊎ When job circles are used, what guides should be used for grouping jobs into KBP classes?
• •⊎ How does the size of an organization and the range of task variety relate to KBP plans?
• •⊎ How do organizational and pay system differences affect practices such as rotation and participation?

KBP is an interesting and potentially useful approach to compensation. We have suggested some approaches to these issues in this article, but we all need to know more about it.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Forecasts steady but near‐term signals mixed

• Our world growth forecasts are steady this month, at 2.3% for 2016 and 2.7% for 2017.
• One factor behind the more stable outlook is the rally in financial markets since mid‐February. This rally appears to have been the result of a number of factors including a more dovish Fed and an improvement in some near‐term economic indicators.
• The implied 12‐month ahead Fed funds rate dropped around 0.5% from its January peak to mid-February and remains around 0.35% lower now. So the Fed still apparently has the capacity to boost markets with changes in communication policy.
• The Citigroup economic surprise indicators have also improved over recent weeks, especially for emerging markets where the indicator is back in positive territory. The G10 index nevertheless remains clearly negative.
• Other economic signals are mixed. The latest reading of OE's world trade indicator (based on survey evidence for March) suggests a modest improvement, although again the indicator continues to signal weak world trade growth.
• Meanwhile, there have been some warnings of potentially softer labour market conditions. Though payrolls gains have remained solid, a weighted sum of the employment subindices of the US ISM surveys has dropped sharply over recent months. A similar index for the Eurozone is more positive, although it has also softened from its late‐2015 peaks.
• These mixed signals suggest limited likelihood of near‐term upgrades to the world growth outlook and overall we maintain our view from last month that risks look skewed to the downside – so that further monetary policy stimulus remains a possibility.
• This assessment appears to be shared, to some extent at least, by global bond markets. US 10‐year yields have dropped back to only 1.7% since mid‐March (only 0.1% above their February lows), with German yields at just 0.1% and Japanese yields at ‐ 0.1%. So the ‘great squeeze’ on G7 bond yields is still continuing.

     

A long dollar fall: likelihood and consequences

• ? The dollar has tended to move in long swings over the last forty years, raising the risk that the recent decline could extend considerably further. This is not our base case, but risks do look skewed towards additional dollar weakness. Our modelling work suggests that a large further dollar slide would have significant effects on the pattern of world growth – the US and some emerging markets would gain, with other advanced economies the main losers.
• ? There have been several large multi‐year swings in the dollar over the last four decades. We identify seven such episodes since 1971 including three long declines averaging 31%, the last being in 2002‐08. Since 2017 the dollar has fallen 10%, implying a possible further considerable drop.
• ? Our dollar strength indicator, which covers a range of economic variables associated with dollar moves in the past, does not currently point to a re‐run of the dollar weakness of the 2000s. But we do expect some further near‐term dollar losses and risks to our baseline forecast look skewed to the downside, especially given the emergence of large twin deficits in the US.
• ? Should a further large dollar slump nevertheless occur, our modelling suggests large effects on the pattern of world growth. The main gainers would be commodity‐producing emerging markets (EM) benefitting from improved terms of trade, positive balance sheet and external liquidity effects and scope to ease local interest rates. Rising US yields would erode some of these gains in later years.
• ? The main initial losers would be advanced economies outside the US which would lose competitiveness. In the case of the Eurozone and Japan, undershoots of inflation targets would be likely. There could also be some other negative consequences such as stoking protectionism and creating financial bubbles in some EMs.

     

DECISION-MAKING IN CONDITIONS OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTY

In the last few years management has been forced to take decisions in conditions of extreme uncertainty. One consequence of this has been an increase in the use of formal methods of analysis in major decision problems. This paper describes some observations on how companies were handling decision-making under uncertainty, made during a S.S.R.C. sponsored research project on the influence of computer methods in planning and decision-making, viz.

• 1 Managers were consciously handling uncertainty by evaluating their major decisions in the light of several possible alternative forecasts.
• 2 Statistical decision theory was not used because, though in theory it was ideally suited for this situation, in practice management had the following objections to the use of this technique: (a) It assumed an accuracy of subjective probability estimates which was unrealistic in real life. (b) It required the use of artificial criteria of choice which were totally unacceptable to senior management. (c) It over-simplified the decision-making process.
• 3 In the thirty-two companies visited, management was using a systems analysis approach to decision-making involving the use of decision trees to structure the decision. Thereafter, instead of carrying out a probalistic analysis, a full evaluation to determine the quantitative and qualitative results would be carried out for each feasible path though the tree. This would be followed by an iterative elimination process.
• 4 Management were also endeavouring to cope with uncertainty by being more adaptive and flexible in their decision-making and are developing contingency or ‘fall-back’ strategies. Plans were not looked on as rigid blue-prints, but more as loosely linked frameworks of decision trees with the actual path through the decision tree dependent on future events.

     

Segmenting nonprofit stakeholders to enable successful relationship marketing: a review

• When establishing relationships with stakeholders, nonprofit organizations must define appropriate target groups to allocate resources purposively. This paper explicates that link by reviewing the literature on nonprofit stakeholder segmentation and by discussing whether stakeholder segmentation is perceived as a prerequisite of successful relationship marketing by nonprofit researchers.
• We develop two conceptual dimensions of nonprofit stakeholder segmentation: the stakeholders segmented and the segmentation criteria used. A systematic database and journal search yielded 53 papers, categorized according to these two dimensions. The studies are described briefly, and the relevance of the relationship marketing concept is examined and discussed. Several research gaps emerge from this review, leading to propositions for further research.

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How and why small to medium size enterprises (SMEs) engage with their communities: an Australian study

• While many studies address corporate philanthropy and corporate community involvement, limited work has been conducted internationally in small to medium businesses and even less has been elucidated about the Australian small business landscape.
• This article reports findings from qualitative research investigating giving to community causes by 52 small to medium size enterprises (SMEs) across Australia.
• Three key questions addressed in this article are: (1) why SMEs engage with community (2) how they engage with community and (3) obstacles they perceive in giving.
• Our findings suggest that SMEs have a preference to avoid cash gifts, prefer to support local causes and would benefit from the development of best practice giving guidelines and templates.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluations of branding alliances between non‐profit and commercial brand partners: the transfer of affect

• There is growing interest in the trend towards co‐branding alliances between non‐profit and commercial entities,which are undertaken by these organisations to transfer associations and affect between each brand partner. Certainly, it makes sense that commercial entities want to gain more from their brands and that non‐profits want secured funding, however, in the same way that the joining of two brands can be beneficial, it can also bring with it major risks when the brand alliance is not well received and evaluations of the alliance are not favourable.
• This research supports the notion that both commercial entities and non‐profit organisations can benefit from a branding alliance, however, an understanding of how these brand alliances are evaluated is important. This research investigates evaluations of brand alliances and the resulting spillover effects for original brand partners that result from brand alliances.
• This research provides empirical support relating to reactions to brand alliances between a non‐profit organisation and a commercial business in terms of how original brand attitudes, familiarity of original brands and perceived brand fit impact on evaluations. While collaboration is important and has potential benefits for each partner—they rest on partner selection and fit between alliance partners. Managerial implications and future research directions are also provided.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: Global stimulus reinforced by ECB QE

• The ECB announced a QE programme in January involving buying some €60 billion of assets per month, of which around €40 billion are likely to be government bonds.
• As a result, despite the end of QE in the US, major central banks' ‘non‐standard’ policy support (asset purchases plus loans to banks) is set to be higher in 2015–16 than last year, supporting world growth.
• Moreover, major central banks' purchases of government bonds will by 2016 be close to the net issuance of bonds by governments – indirectly, full ‘monetisation’ of fiscal deficits is arriving.
• This prospect is likely to have been partly behind the further compression of bond yields this year, which remarkably has seen German 10‐year yields trade below those of Japan in recent weeks. And largescale bond purchases are likely to prevent any sharp uptick in yields over the next year at least.
• Other policy settings are also becoming more positive for global growth. We estimate that fiscal policy will be broadly neutral in the US and Eurozone this year – and also in Japan after the postponement of the second consumption tax rise. On top of this, the collapse in oil prices since mid‐2014 can be seen as equivalent to a substantial ‘tax cut’ for consumers in the major economies.
• Meanwhile, a stronger dollar will restrain US exports modestly, but the flipside will be an improved export outlook for the likes of Japan and the Eurozone. We now expect the euro to decline to near‐parity with the dollar by end‐2015 (from 1.13 now) while the yen/$ rate reaches 127 (from 119).
• The main drag to global growth continues to be the sluggish performance of the main emerging markets. Brazil is set to stagnate again this year while Chinese growth still seems to be slowing and there are serious problems in some oil exporters – both Russia and Venezuela are forecast to see GDP fall 6%. But there are some brighter spots – including an improved picture in India.

     

Why avoiding ‘Japanification’ could be a massive task

• ? 'Japanification risk’ is back on the agenda in the context of a slowing world economy. Japan's struggle to drag its economy out of an entrenched deflationary cycle offers a cautionary tale for other economies such as the eurozone, demonstrating the enormity of the policy effort needed.
• ? Low inflation and low growth in Japan are linked to demographic and monetary factors, against which Japan has intensified policy efforts since 2011–12. Japan can claim some success in boosting workforce participation but productivity growth has stalled while monetary policy efforts have delivered limited gains.
• ? The eurozone has avoided some of the early policy errors made by Japan and taken a number of steps to tackle ‘Japanification’ risks. But productivity growth has flagged even more than Japan's in the 1990s, and parts of the eurozone still risk sliding into deflation if the global downturn worsens.
• ? The eurozone's policy options to fight ‘Japanification', particularly at the individual country level, are more limited than was the case in Japan. Further ‘heavy lifting’ by the ECB would be required – implying downside risks for the euro and bond yields staying low, if not compressing further.

     

Will the Bank of England turn dovish?

• ? Short of a sharp slowdown in the economy and/or inflation expectations, or a no‐deal Brexit, we think that the Bank of England is unlikely to follow recent moves by the Fed and ECB in signalling cuts to interest rates.
• ? Admittedly, the BoE's guidance on rate rises has gone awry before. And the UK has some commonalities with the US and eurozone, including declining core inflation and continued job creation without inflationary consequences.
• ? But growth projections paint the UK in a relatively favourable light, while stable inflation expectations and a relaxation of fiscal austerity offer two more reasons for the BoE to plough its own, more hawkish, furrow.

     

Critical social marketing – The impact of alcohol marketing on youth drinking: Qualitative findings

• This paper presents findings from exploratory qualitative research as part of a critical social marketing study examining the impact of alcohol marketing communications on youth drinking. The findings from stakeholder interviews (regulators and marketers) suggest that some alcohol marketing might target young people, and that marketers are cognisant of growing concern at alcohol issues, including control of alcohol marketing. Focus groups with young people (aged 13–15 years) revealed a sophisticated level of awareness of, and involvement in, alcohol marketing across several channels. It was found that some marketing activities featured content that could appeal to young people and appeared to influence their, well‐developed, brand attitudes. The research demonstrates the utility of taking a critical social marketing approach when examining the impact of alcohol marketing. The implications of these findings for research, regulation and policy around alcohol marketing are also examined. The contribution that studies such as this make to the debate around marketing principles and practice, and to social marketing, is also discussed.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.