资本市场融资条件与产品市场竞争双重约束下的中国上市公司融资行为研究

本文通过数据分析详细刻画了中国上市公司融资行为和资本结构的特征,发现中国上市公司融资行为与G-7国家实践和西方经典公司金融理论的预期截然相反.为了有效解释这一背离现象,论文以西方公司金融学的最新进展为基础,结合中国资本市场融资条件和产品市场竞争的实际状况,对中国上市公司融资行为给出了新的分析框架.论文最后针对如何规范资本市场融资秩序提出了建议.     

Do cash stockpiles fuel cash acquisitions?

U.S. firms currently hold a $2 trillion cash stockpile. We examine if cash stockpiles fuel cash acquisitions by studying the method of payment decision for cash-rich firms. Surprisingly, cash-rich firms are 23% less likely to make cash bids than stock bids, relative to firms that are not cash rich. We examine several potential explanations related to omitted variable bias and endogeneity and the result remains. More specifically, the results are robust to explanations related to agency, financial constraints, tax-related explanations, equity overvaluation, and capital structure. Our evidence implies that the link between cash stockpiles and cash acquisitions is not obvious.     

Initial public offering prospectus forecast errors and mandatory explanations: evidence from New Zealand

This paper examines management forecast errors in initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses of New Zealand firms and subsequent management explanations for earnings forecast errors in recent years. New Zealand has several unique features and recent changes that are worthy of research, including the requirement for management to make forecasts; a requirement to explain differences between forecast and actual; and a recent change that provides the voluntary opportunity to obtain a negative assurance opinion on forecasts. Using hand-collected IPO data between 1998 and 2014, we find that firms that include a negative assurance opinion on the prospective financial information in the prospectus have more accurate earnings and cash flow forecasts. We investigate the subsequent explanations for forecast errors, which are mandated by a financial reporting standard. We show that management tends to attribute negative and large forecast errors to external causes rather than their own actions. Our findings have implications for regulators and investors in New Zealand and other settings.     

Explaining Financial Results

CROSBY III automatically constructs explanations for financial results. The key elements of the program are (1) a body of raw financial data to be explained, (2) an extensible knowledge base of financial relations expressed as algebraic constraints, (3) a selection of possible explanatory variables and information about the relative likelihoods of individual hypotheses, (4) an algorithm for generating consistent, adequate, plausible and parsimonious interpretations of the data, (5) a facility for explaining how a particular interpretation supports the data and (6) a facility for explaining why one interpretation is preferred over another. This paper focuses on facilites (5) and (6). CROSBY III is an implemented but undeployed prototype that has been tested on historical data and financial models of a small high-technology company along with its closest competitors, on more than ten divisions of a large company and on a collection of large banks.     

Trust and Financial Reporting Quality

Using unique survey data from Great Place to Work® Institute, we investigate the association of intraorganizational trust (i.e., employees’ trust in management) with three aspects of financial reporting: accruals quality, misstatements, and internal control quality. We find that trust is associated with better accrual quality, lower likelihood of financial statement misstatements, and lower likelihood of internal control material weakness disclosures. However, these effects are not uniform across all companies. Consistent with trust improving financial reporting quality through improved information production and information sharing, we find that trust is significantly associated with financial reporting quality in relatively decentralized firms, but not in firms that are relatively centralized. Our results are robust to several analyses that attempt to control for potential alternative explanations.     

商业银行金融创新与系统性风险

本文利用2007—2018年间我国商业银行金融创新财务数据和基于尾部依赖度量的系统性风险,分析了商业银行金融创新对系统性风险的影响。结果显示:第一,我国商业银行金融创新在经济上行时期会降低系统性风险,在经济下行时期会增加系统性风险;第二,按照不同类型商业银行金融创新来看,在经济下行时期,商业银行衍生金融负债业务、理财及代理业务创新会增加系统性风险,而衍生金融资产业务和信贷业务创新会降低系统性风险。本文对实证结果提供了可能的经济学解释,并基于实证结果及原因,进一步提出了相应的监管措施和政策建议。     

How Prepared was Australia for International Financial Reporting Standards? The Case of Listed Firms

We measure the preparedness of listed firms for international financial reporting standards (IFRS) by changes in explanations from Australian GAAP to IFRS between the half-year and annual accounts. About one-third of sample firms changed their explanations for earnings, cashflows or equity by averages of about −7%, 67% and 3% respectively. Most changes are less than 5% for earnings and equity, and tax is the item most commonly revised. More profitable firms and firms with more reconciling items are most likely to change an explanation. In a telephone survey of chief financial officers, 70% revealed that the change followed an incorrect application of an accounting rule in the half-year accounts.     

Are modern financial systems shaped by state antiquity?

We demonstrate that existing differences in financial development between countries can be explained by the cumulative variations in their levels of state experience since 1 AD. This dimension of early historical development has not been considered so far in studies that analyze the determinants of financial development. The estimation allows for all major theories established in the literature as possible explanations for the disparity of financial development across the globe. Significance of state antiquity is robust to the use of alternative indicators of financial development, the consideration of different lengths and periods of statehood, and controlling for a range of variables or country characteristics. Our results highlight the important role of statehood in propelling financial system development, and thus provide some support to the view that historically determined differences in the early-start developmental advantage provide the basis for explaining the fundamental sources of variations in financial development between countries today.     

Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets

After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, interest in nonlinear dynamics, especially deterministic chaotic dynamics, has increased in both the financial press and the academic literature. This has come about because the frequency of large moves in stock markets is greater than would be expected under a normal distribution. There are a number of possible explanations. A popular one is that the stock market is governed by chaotic dynamics. What exactly is chaos and how is it related to nonlinear dynamics? How does one detect chaos? Is there chaos in financial markets? Are there other explanations of the movements of financial prices other than chaos? The purpose of this paper is to explore these issues.     

Price/Book Value Ratios and Equity Returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: Empirical Evidence of an Anomalous Regularity

This study examines the relationship between accounting data and financial market data for securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We document, for the first time for a non-U.S. market, a significant price to book value ratio effect; i.e., Japanese equities with low price to book value ratios earn higher returns than those with high price to book value ratios, and this price to book value effect is stronger in January and June and for smaller firms. One implication of the international pervasiveness of these empirical regularities is that explanations for these effects that are based on unique institutional or accounting procedures are unlikely to be sufficient.     

The paradox of interest rates of the Greenback Era: A reexamination

The two leading explanations for the counterintuitive behavior of interest rates during the Greenback Era (1862-1878) - the resumption expectations model of Calomiris (1988) and the capital flow argument of Friedman and Schwartz (1963) - are inconsistent with each other in terms of their treatment of financial arbitrage. A methodology to identify unexploited arbitrage opportunities in financial data is proposed. Observable returns strongly suggest that the money market of the Greenback Era did not systematically admit arbitrage, except possibly around the times of the Gold Corner of 1869 and the Panic of 1873, which implies that Calomiris provides a more plausible explanation.     

Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows

The paper provides empirical evidence that strategic complementarities among investors generate fragility in financial markets. Analyzing mutual fund data, we find that, consistent with a theoretical model, funds with illiquid assets (where complementarities are stronger) exhibit stronger sensitivity of outflows to bad past performance than funds with liquid assets. We also find that this pattern disappears in funds where the shareholder base is composed mostly of large investors. We present further evidence that these results are not attributable to alternative explanations based on the informativeness of past performance or on clientele effects. We analyze the implications for funds’ performance and policies.     

Brand perception,cash flow stability,and financial policy

This paper demonstrates that intangible assets play an important role in financial policy. Using a proprietary database of consumer brand evaluation, I show that positive consumer attitude toward a firm's products alleviates financial frictions and provides additional net debt capacity, as measured by higher leverage and lower cash holdings. Brand perception affects financial policy through reducing overall firm riskiness, as strong consumer evaluations translate into lower future cash flow volatility as well as higher credit ratings for potentially volatile firms. The impact of brand is stronger among small firms, contradicting a number of reverse causality and omitted variables explanations.     

Information demand during the COVID-19 pandemic

We investigate the demand for financial information during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Google search data for individual stocks, we show that the Abnormal Google Search Volume Index declined significantly between March and June of 2020. We find a similar effect around earnings announcements dates, which confirms that the demand for financial information by retail investors declined during the pandemic. Our results are indicative of potentially important consequences for information diffusion, price discovery and market efficiency under extreme uncertainty. We discuss possible explanations for these results.     

Abnormal stock returns associated with media disclosures of ‘subject to’ qualified audit opinions

This paper contains evidence of a significant negative stock price reaction to media disclosures of ‘subject to’ qualified audit opinions. Disclosures of qualifications in the financial news media (the Wall Street Journal and the Broad Tape) are rare relative to the frequency of audit qualifications. Other studies do not detect an impact of qualified opinions on stock prices. None of the explanations for the difference in the results between this study and prior studies is consistent with the data. We are unable to draw strong inferences because we cannot identify the selection process that produces the sample of media disclosures.     

Evidence on the effect of bond covenants and management compensation contracts on the choice of accounting techniques: The case of the depreciation switch-back

Provisions of bond indenture agreements and management compensation contracts are examined to derive testable implications concerning management's incentives to choose among alternative accounting techniques. The hypotheses are subjected to empirical examination by investigating the voluntary change from accelerated to straight-line depreciation for financial reporting purposes only. The methodology utilized incorporates an expectations model of accounting earnings in an attempt to separate out of the effects of earnings announcements from accounting change announcements which are often concurrent. The evidence from both price and non-price data is not consistent with the general hypothesis that bond covenants and management compensation contracts are important determinants of the decision to change depreciation techniques. Five potential explanations for the results are offered.     

Principles of Financial Regulation: A Dynamic Portfolio Approach

Economists seeking explanations for the global financial crisisof 1997–99 are reaching consensus that a major factorwas weak financial institutions, which resulted in part frominadequate government regulations. At the same time many developingcountries are struggling with an overregulated financial system—onethat stifles innovation and the flow of credit to new entrepreneursand that can stunt the growth of well-established firms. Inparticular, too many countries are relying excessively on capitaladequacy standards, which are inefficient and sometimes counterproductive.The author argues that financial systems can be reformed successfullyusing a "dynamic portfolio approach" aimed at managing the incentivesand constraints that affect not only financial institutions'exposure to risk but also their ability to cope with it. Thearticle sets out general principles of financial regulationand shows how the dynamic portfolio approach can help countriesdeal with the special problems that arise during the transitionto a more liberalized economy as well as those that arise indealing with a financial crisis similar to the 1997 crisis inEast Asia.      

The Disciplinary Role of Financial Statements: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions of Privately Held Targets

This study examines whether requiring the disclosure of audited financial statements disciplines managers’ mergers and acquisitions (M&As) decisions. When an M&A transaction meets certain disclosure thresholds, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires the public acquirer to disclose the target's audited financial statements after the merger is completed. Using hand‐collected data, I find that the disclosure of private targets’ financial statements is associated with better acquisition decisions. Furthermore, I find that this disciplining effect of disclosure is more pronounced when monitoring by outside capital providers is more difficult and costly, and when other disciplining mechanisms are weaker. Finally, these findings are robust to several alternative explanations, such as monitoring from blockholders and voluntary disclosures. In sum, the evidence suggests that the ex post mandatory disclosure of private targets’ accounting information disciplines managers’ acquisition decisions and improves acquisition efficiency.     

Market Transparency and the Accounting Regime

We model the interaction of financial market transparency and different accounting regimes. This paper provides a theoretical rationale for the recently proposed shift in accounting standards from historic cost accounting to marking to market. The paper shows that marking to market can provide investors with an early warning mechanism while historical cost gives management a “veil” under which they can potentially mask a firm's true economic performance. The model provides new explanations for several empirical findings and has some novel implications. We show that greater opacity in financial markets leads to more frequent and more severe crashes in asset prices (under a historic‐cost‐accounting regime). Moreover, our model indicates that historic cost accounting can make the financial market more rather than less volatile, which runs counter to conventional wisdom. The mechanism shown in the model also sheds light on the cause of many financial scandals in recent years.