Tailoring but not targeting: a critical analysis of “the Meth Project” aimed at Hispanic youth

• This paper examines the Meth Project, a social marketing campaign that enlists violence and fear to persuade Anglo and Hispanic youth in the USA to avoid methamphetamines. Violent and graphic media spots, although perhaps initially effective for facilitating message acceptance, may be counterproductive for long‐term campaign objectives. We draw on Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model to conceptualize how fear, risk, and behavior drive health‐related behaviors. Merely translating the Anglo spots into Spanish is an insufficient strategy to reach Hispanic youth because it targets rather than tailors its message. Significant findings of content analyses show that public service announcements in Spanish, unexpectedly, underscore recovering users' concern for violating norms with schools, employers, and law enforcement (secondary groups), whereas the Anglo spots show users more upset for disappointing family, friends, and loved ones (primary groups). Culturally appropriate Latino spots should tailor their messages to the values of familism, collectivism, simpatía, personalismo, and respeto, which have implications for reaching Hispanic audiences in other social marketing contexts.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ECB tapering: beware of global consequences

• ? The ECB's scaling back of its QE programme in 2018 could be more disruptive to global financial markets than the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet unwinding. ECB bond purchases led Eurozone private investors to inject a massive amount of funds into global debt markets over the last few years. As the ECB reduces its stimulus, Eurozone investors will gradually pare back the build‐up of their foreign debt exposures. The full unwinding of ECB QE will see investors rebalance toward domestic debt securities .
• ? We expect Eurozone investors to continue injecting funds into global debt markets as the ECB proceeds to wind down its QE, but they will do so at a much slower pace. Based on our projections, European purchases of foreign debt securities this year will total €200 billion – down by half from the average €400 billion over the last three years. Such a large reduction raises the risk of disruption in some markets.
• ? How did we get here? Spillovers from the ECB's QE were much more pronounced than during Fed's. European private investors that sold bonds to the ECB during its QE programme faced a commensurate shortage of domestic debt assets. In contrast to the US experience, ECB buying far exceeded new domestic issuance, inducing private investors to sharply increase purchases of overseas debt securities.
• ? Ultimately, we expect European investors to seek to restore the share of domestic debt securities in their portfolios to a level in line with the historical norm, after the proportion of their domestic debt holdings fell by 7pp since the programme began. The rebalancing is likely to start in earnest once the ECB stops buying (and eventually starts selling) securities. As a result, the global debt issuance boom is likely to lose steam, given the extent to which it has relied on the support of European investors.

     

Major liquidity drain may fuel bond market vulnerabilities

• ? It is plausible that cross‐border bond purchases will average
  • ? It is plausible that cross‐border bond purchases will average $0.5trn in 2018 and 2019, a dramatic fall from $1.2trn in 2017, driven mainly by reductions in European and US purchases. This will exacerbate upward pressure on bond yields over and above those associated with traditional macroeconomic drivers. The US bond market (and the dollar) are particularly vulnerable .
  • ? This article is part of a long‐term research project, whose intricate analysis of global fixed income flows has revealed strong implications for global bond valuations that could be inconsistent with consensus expectations for the global economy.
  • ? The termination of net purchases under the ECB's asset purchase programme (APP) will have important implications for global bond markets, which may be larger than those associated with the end of the Fed's QE programme. The unwind will prompt a reversal in European investors' aggressive rotation of portfolios from domestic to foreign fixed income securities and other asset classes. This could reduce cross‐border purchases by European investors by €200bn per year.
  • ? US investors are also expected to buy fewer foreign bonds as they are likely to have to absorb an increase in the supply of domestic bonds because of (i) a larger fiscal deficit; (ii) the Fed's portfolio unwinding; (iii) corporate sector liquidation of holdings abroad; and (iv) greater financial sector issuance tied to household re‐leveraging.
  • ? Emerging markets' (EM) purchases of foreign bonds are expected to continue to be subdued in the short‐term after recent steep declines. Our baseline view is that, on the back of the return of capital flows into emerging markets, EM purchases of advanced market securities will bounce back but not by enough to offset the retrenchment of American and European investors. However, the risks to the downside are considerable given shifting global policy developments.
       

Regional voices talk theatre: audience development for the performing arts

• Audience development is somewhat of a ‘buzz word’ within the Australian performing arts sector at present. However, rather than actually engaging with audiences and with non‐attenders to discover how to best serve the community, most of the performing arts organisations approach audience development from a product‐centred viewpoint.
• In direct contrast to this, the Talking Theatre project (2004–2006) was implemented in regional Queensland and in the Northern Territory in Australia as an audience development initiative focused on the consumer. The project sought to assist performing arts centres (PACs) to better engage with their local communities and to build new audiences for the future. In particular, the research aimed to understand non‐attenders, their reasons for non‐attendance and their reactions to a range of live performances they experienced under study conditions.
• The Talking Theatre project provided the vehicle for introduction, communication and relationship building to occur to assist in attitudinal and behavioural change. The non‐attenders enjoyed their experiences at the PACs and have begun attending performances outside of study conditions. Limited awareness of the performing arts' relevance to their lives combined with a lack of positive peer influence to attend, were the chief deterrents to attendance for the participants in the study.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An examination of factors impacting athlete alumni donations to their alma mater: a case study of a U.S. university

• It has been suggested that athlete alumni do not give as generously as they could to their alma maters. Athlete alumni may feel they have given enough to their schools by playing sports, and they may feel greater loyalty to their former sports teams than their alma maters. Drawing on social exchange theory, this study investigated whether such attitudes among athlete alumni at a U.S. university were related to lifetime donations. Results indicate:
  • the quality of alumni's athletic experience and the perception that they have already given to their school by playing sports are predictive of giving amount.
  • similar to the general alumni donor, the variables of age, income, and geography were also found to be related to giving level.
• Universities and colleges may need to develop specialized marketing communications programs to mitigate athlete alumni's perceptions of not needing to donate because they competed for their school. Implications for universities and other nonprofit organizations are offered.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prices Revisited: Their Effects on Industrial Structure

In January 1986, Spain became a member of the European Economic Community (now the European Union). This had two major effects on the Spanish economy: first, the introduction of a new tax, i. e. value-added tax; second, the variation of foreign trade taxes. The new situation produced considerable changes throughout the Spanish economy, but the main effect was on the country's industrial structure. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to verify how Spain's industrial production system was affected by these two facts, in view of price variations induced by the circumstances mentioned. We present the analysis at the regional level.     

Canada‐style trade deal most likely Brexit scenario

• ? All options for the Brexit endgame remain on the table. A free‐trade agreement (FTA) along the lines of the EU's deal with Canada looks like the most likely outcome. The two sides will also need to reach agreements on customs and regulations, with the latter involving the UK compromising on maintaining a high degree of regulatory alignment, to provide a permanent fudge on the Irish border issue. But there is still a sizeable risk of a “no deal” outcome .
• ? We expect a transitional deal to be agreed relatively quickly. The UK has suggested it would prefer a bespoke arrangement, but the EU is unlikely to offer such an option. We expect the UK to remain bound by EU rules during the transition, with the transitional period ending on 31 December 2020.
• ? If the two sides continue to pursue the preferred option of a FTA, it is unlikely to be completed by the end of the transition period. We expect the EU to reject the UK's request for a comprehensive agreement including services and insist on a Canada‐style deal. The Irish border issue means that customs and regulatory agreements would need to accompany such a deal. We place a 40% chance on this outcome.
• ? The question of regulatory alignment and the time required to negotiate a detailed FTA could spin the talks off in one of two opposing directions. If the prime minister is unable to get her party to agree to maintain a high degree of regulatory alignment, the talks could break down. If this occurs, we think it's very unlikely that the UK would honour the phase‐one agreement to maintain regulatory alignment, and we see a 30% chance that the UK walks away from the talks, resulting in a “cliff‐edge” Brexit in 2019.
• ? If the UK accepts the need to maintain regulatory alignment with the EU, it could conclude that joining the EEA and participating in the single market are better than lengthy FTA negotiations, resulting in an inferior deal. But the need to respect the four freedoms means this remains a relatively low probability outcome (20%). Wth Parliament seemingly committed to Brexit, remaining in the EU looks unlikely (10%).

     

Getting the picture: programme awareness amongst film festival customers

• This study explores how film festival customers become aware of a festival programme compared to general release films. The purpose of this research is to understand the decision-making process in the context of cultural offerings consumption, and the role that customer relationship marketing (CRM) plays. An in-depth interview was conducted with the marketing manager of the festival and three focus groups were conducted amongst infrequent, mid-range and frequent attendees. Findings show that customers value and desire direct communication and that as attendance frequency increases the range of information sources used decreases. The implications for CRM are that greater use should be made of virtual and physical direct communication and that there are opportunities for targeting communications.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coming soon to a live theater near you: performing arts trailers as paratexts

• Dramatic changes in technology present not‐for‐profit performing arts organizations with both opportunities and challenges for engaging and attracting audiences. With its emphasis on deep engagement with a select group of users, the Internet “long tail” presents a natural application for this sector; however, performing arts groups must grapple with developing the most optimal web‐based content for their particular organizational needs. This paper analyzes the use of web‐based video offerings used currently by professional symphony orchestras in the United States and Canada. One third of observed websites included video of some kind (including a wide‐array of content), while roughly half of that number focused on promoting concerts scheduled for the future. An even smaller number have embraced the practice of presenting performing arts previews (after the longstanding tradition within the film industry) as a purposeful kind of paratext, including representational elements of the work, the performers, and the overall concert context. A conceptual frame of video types is presented and discussed, with particular attention to the preview format. The research on film previews as an analogous vehicle is evaluated including the tradition of telling the incomplete story, while also promoting the movie. The research on paratexts in relation to books, theatre programs, and film trailers is reviewed and the case is made for web‐based performing arts previews as an emergent genre within the paratext conceptual frame. Specific video examples currently in use illustrate theory and concepts presented in the paper.

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weathering the storm: best practices for nonprofits in crisis

• Nonprofit organizations are as susceptible to crisis as any organization as exemplified by Livestrong's attempts to outlive Lance Armstrong's downfall and Planned Parenthood (PP) overcoming Susan G. Komen for the Cure's (SGK) policy to defund organizations under investigation. The public battles held on social media during crises such as these have forced organizations onto new battlegrounds. Supporters for each of these nonprofits proudly shared their thoughts via tweets (e.g. #IstandwithPP) and status updates, as the organizations raced to control the situation. PP had tweeted SGK's policy change creating a bevy of support while sending SGK into a reversal that is still costing racers. Surveys were distributed following Armstrong's performance-enhancing drug use confession and SGK's funding policy announcement to determine attitudes toward giving after organizational crisis. The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) was used to assess the strength of attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control on the intent to donate to these organizations. The use of TPB expands nonprofit marketing horizons by helping better understand stakeholder intentions and their causes. On the basis of the findings, best practices for nonprofits handling crisis were identified. In particular, organizations need to know their target audiences, know what will make supporters remain, look at crises as opportunities for renewal, be honest, and apologize when appropriate.

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Branding HIV/AIDS communication: the social marketing campaigns of MTV and Viacom

• Based on an ethnographic study of the production and reception of HIV/AIDS public service campaigns by MTV and Viacom, this paper examines the role of branding in HIV/AIDS education promotion. A main premise of the paper is that audiences for HIV/AIDS social marketing campaigns are now less addressed in terms of the classic HIV/AIDS prevention categories of ‘general public’ and ‘risk groups’ and are increasingly viewed as ‘market segments’ implicated in the campaigns in relation to the techniques of branding. Drawing on examples from research conducted amongst audiences in the North of England, the findings highlight the differing audience understandings of the branded consumer objects and icons of HIV awareness. Using a cultural materialist perspective, concerned with the relationship between the campaigns and social relations, this paper examines the process of corporate-sponsored HIV/AIDS campaigns. The findings underscore how social marketing campaigns are increasingly being related to as branded media objects and icons, closely tied to people's material experience and understandings of the aesthetics framing these branded objects and icons. The paper argues that identification and engagement with the campaigns is most evident amongst participants who shared the consumer values and the marketing discourses used by marketing managers and producers of the public service announcements.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Publications Received

• eLeadership—Proven Techniques for Creating an Environment of Speed and Flexibility in the Digital Economy
• The Flexible Workplace—A Sourcebook of Information and Research
• Achieving Success Through Social Capital
• New Challenges for European Human Resource Management
• A Future for the Excluded—Job Creation & Income Generation by the Poor
• Organizational Stress—A Review and Critique of Theory, Research, and Applications
• Anatomising Embodiment & Organisation Theory
• The Contingency Theory of Organizations
• Retaining Valued Employees
• The Time Management Workshop—A Trainer's Guide
• Becoming Dynamic—Creating and Sustaining the Dynamic Organisation
• International Management Behavior
• The Human Face of Corporate Governance
• Person‐Centered Leadership—An American Approach to Participatory Management
• Training in the Workplace
• Human Resource Management—Perspectives for the New Era
• Stalking,Harassment,and Murder in the Workplace—Guidelines for Protection and Prevention
• The Challenge of Front‐Line Management—Flattened Organizations in the New Economy
• Winning the Talent Wars—How to Manage and Compete in the High‐Tech, High‐Speed, Knowledge‐Based, Superfluid Economy
• Mediation in the Workplace—A Guide for Training, Practice, and Administration

     

Transforming Transformers into Militainment: Interrogating the DoD‐Hollywood Complex

This article examines how the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and Hollywood collaborated to manufacture the blockbuster films Transformers (T) and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (TRF) to sell in global markets and to sell a positive image of DoD personnel, policy, technology, and practice to the world. T and TRF are global militainment films made by the “DoD‐Hollywood complex” to make money in markets and put the U.S. military before the world in a positive light. To show how, the article's first section defines the “DoD‐Hollywood complex,” presents a brief 20^th‐century history of its formation, and describes the current DoD institutions, policies, and practices that fuse DoD publicity agencies to Hollywood filmmakers. The second section highlights how DoD assisted T and TRF's production and contemplates why Hollywood solicited DoD support. The third section shows how T and TRF put DoD in a positive light. The conclusion addresses some of the consequences of T and TRF with regard to democratic theory. By showing T and TRF to be global militainment commodities, this article interrogates the nexus of “reel” and “real” U.S. military power and sheds light on how DoD interacts with Hollywood studios to influence how it gets screened by entertainment media and seen by global spectators.     

Assessing the social impact of charitable organizations—four alternative approaches

• There is increased societal pressure on charities to improve performance. The questions that they must ask are: (1) Who is our audience? (2) What evaluation measures are important to the organization? and (3) What evaluation measures are best for the organization? There are a number of different approaches available for assessing performance, ranging from social accounting to more informal qualitative assessments of whether the organization's mission is being achieved. This paper draws on the industry and academic discussion of evaluations of nonprofit organizations to develop a four‐category typology of alternative approaches for audiences. It then identifies the benefits and limitations of each. The goal is to identify the steps that charities should use to determine which approach is most suited to their specific circumstances. It is proposed that a collaborative development of evaluation criteria, of whichever type, may be most appropriate as will draw together the experiences and resources of multiple parties, and may have broader appeal than evaluations proposed by individual nonprofits.

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Too [blank] to fail! The partial solution to the euro crisis

• In this article, I reflect on the darkest days of the Eurocrisis. Between 2010 and 2012 one half‐baked policy initiative after another provided no more than a temporary respite. Every action had been some weighted average of the optimal and the agreeable. The consistent crisis‐related irony was that the more Germany complained, the bigger the potential bill got, as capital fled from stricken economies, further fuelling fears of euro exit.
• The solution was stumbled upon mostly by accident. Eventually it dawned on markets that the exit bill was so big that northern Europe could no longer afford to pull the plug.
• Once the Greek elections were out of the way in mid‐2012, the Eurocrisis turned into a get rich quick moral hazard festival for asset managers, even as unemployment still soared in Europe.
• Everything became too something to fail. Spain and Italy were too big to fail; Spanish regions were too politically connected to fail; senior bondholders of distressed European banks were too systemic to fail; Ireland and Portugal were too virtuous to fail. And given the disastrous social consequences that would have been faced by Greece, it was simply too disgraceful for Europe to let Greece fail.
• In July 2012 Mario Draghi delivered his iconic and extremely helpful “whatever it takes” statement. But to me it was a symptom of the change in tides, rather than being the source of improvement in itself.
• The problem with moral hazard trades collectively is that they depended upon someone being willing to pick up the bill because it is in the collective interest to do so. In mid‐2012, it appeared like Cyprus was too unfair and geopolitically sensitive to fail (given ties with Russia). And as Greece showed in January 2015, the scope for political brinksmanship and crisis‐resurgence is not necessarily eliminated.

     

Peripheries well able to cope with wider bond spreads

• While a four‐year golden period for many peripheral Eurozone governments of rising GDP growth and falling global bond yields may be coming to an end, we doubt that we will see a sharp widening of Eurozone bond spreads in 2017.
• Although higher yields are clearly not positive news for heavily indebted peripheral governments, our view is that the pace of increase in risk‐free long‐term yields will be fairly gradual this year – we expect ten‐year Bund yields to climb to just 0.6% or so by the end of 2017. Such a development is unlikely to prompt markets to demand far higher compensation for the higher risk associated with holding peripheral debt.
• Indeed, both the Italian and Spanish governments should be able to borrow at long maturities and at rates comfortably below their average rate on their outstanding stock of debt of 3% or so, throughout this year and probably beyond, even if spreads rise.
• Meanwhile, a key factor behind the rise in bond yields – the prospect of higher inflation – will have some positive effects. Higher inflation will erode the real value of outstanding debt and make it easier for intra‐Eurozone imbalances to be resolved. At the margin, a steeper yield curve will also help to boost banks' profits on lending.
• Finally, although populists support has grown, the risk of populist governments taking power in the periphery are fairly low. Italy and Spain may hold early elections, but it is not a given that elections will be held this year. And in the event of an election, we do not attach a high chance to the election of populist parties in either economy.
• Overall, while 2017 may be a bumpy one for spreads, particularly in Italy, we see only a modest widening from their current levels, reflecting improvements in the debt sustainability positions of the peripheral governments. But even these modest gains will mean Bunds would still outperform Italian and Spanish government bonds over the next year on a total returns basis.

     

A Labour win would be a roll of the dice for the economy

• ? “It depends”, the classic economist's answer, is apt in assessing the economic outcome of a Labour government. Looser fiscal policy and shifting income from capital to labour could be GDP positive. But a loss of faith in Labour's commitment to Bank of England independence could offset those gains in a mix of lost confidence, spiking interest rates and currency depreciation .
• ? We attach a 20% probability to a general election being held within the next year. The Government's precarious parliamentary position leaves it vulnerable to rebellions, particularly in passing Brexit‐related legislation. But the Fixed‐term Parliaments Act makes it difficult to force a new election, even if the Government is complicit.
• ? In the event of an election in the near term, Labour would require a significant swing in support to gain a majority. Opinion polls show little evidence of this happening, so we put the chances of a majority Labour government at no more than 10%. But the odds of either a Labour‐led coalition or minority government are around 50%.
• ? The consequences of Labour's plans for sterling are ambiguous. A looser fiscal stance should prompt the MPC to tighten monetary policy more aggressively, boosting the pound. But the Party's approach to the Bank could have the opposite effect. A rise in gilt yields is a safer prediction. But with more than half of the gilt stock held by the public sector and “captive” buyers, the scope for a major sell‐off is limited.
• ? The experience of the EU referendum suggests that a Labour victory is unlikely to cause a sudden collapse in confidence. But the drag on profitability from Labour's policies and an activist approach to foreign takeovers could cut FDI inflows, which may be bad for productivity, though it would imply a more competitive pound.
• ? Our modelling suggests that a looser fiscal stance could boost the level of GDP by 2% above our baseline view after three years, if Labour sustains market confidence. But in a “bad” Labour scenario, with central bank independence compromised, the hit to confidence, market rates and sterling would offset the gains from looser fiscal policy.

     

Excessive,optimal, and insufficient fundraising among the Nonprofit Times 100

• Using a six-factor model of donations, we estimate the effect on net donations; i.e., donations less fundraising expenditures, of a one percent marginal increase in fundraising expenditures, for each sample nonprofit organization (NPO) from the Nonprofit Times 100 from 2000 to 2002. No prior study of U.S. NPOs estimates the effect of fundraising expense on net donations. We then use these estimates and what we argue is the correct benchmark, the ratio of fundraising expense to donations, to provide evidence, for each NPO, on whether the NPO's level of fundraising is ‘excessive,’ ‘optimal,’ or ‘insufficient,’ relative to the level that maximizes net donations. All prior studies using log-log models use what we suggest is an incorrect benchmark for evaluating NPO fundraising behavior.
• The estimated effect of a 1% increase in fundraising on net donations varies widely across NPOs in our sample—from an increase in net donations of 0.18% of gross donations to a decrease of 0.66% of gross donations. Of the 76 Nonprofit Times 100 NPOs with usable data in 2002, we estimate that 24 engaged in ‘excessive’ fundraising, 18 engaged in ‘insufficient’ fundraising, and 34 did not engage in ‘excessive’ or ‘insufficient’ fundraising; i.e., we could not reject the null hypothesis of ‘optimal’ levels of fundraising.

Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DECISION-MAKING IN CONDITIONS OF EXTREME UNCERTAINTY

In the last few years management has been forced to take decisions in conditions of extreme uncertainty. One consequence of this has been an increase in the use of formal methods of analysis in major decision problems. This paper describes some observations on how companies were handling decision-making under uncertainty, made during a S.S.R.C. sponsored research project on the influence of computer methods in planning and decision-making, viz.

• 1 Managers were consciously handling uncertainty by evaluating their major decisions in the light of several possible alternative forecasts.
• 2 Statistical decision theory was not used because, though in theory it was ideally suited for this situation, in practice management had the following objections to the use of this technique: (a) It assumed an accuracy of subjective probability estimates which was unrealistic in real life. (b) It required the use of artificial criteria of choice which were totally unacceptable to senior management. (c) It over-simplified the decision-making process.
• 3 In the thirty-two companies visited, management was using a systems analysis approach to decision-making involving the use of decision trees to structure the decision. Thereafter, instead of carrying out a probalistic analysis, a full evaluation to determine the quantitative and qualitative results would be carried out for each feasible path though the tree. This would be followed by an iterative elimination process.
• 4 Management were also endeavouring to cope with uncertainty by being more adaptive and flexible in their decision-making and are developing contingency or ‘fall-back’ strategies. Plans were not looked on as rigid blue-prints, but more as loosely linked frameworks of decision trees with the actual path through the decision tree dependent on future events.

     

Missing a strategic marketing trick? The use of online social networks by UK charities

• This paper explores the use of online social networks in the charity sector. Twelve major UK charities from a range of sectors and three digital marketing agencies were selected to provide rich interview data on the current adoption of online social networks by UK charities. The empirical findings illustrate the diverse drivers in adopting online social networks including regaining control of a brand, external pressures and gaining new audiences. Levels of usage differed significantly and the resistors consistently cited were the lack of skills and resources. The strategic marketing implications for the development of online social networks are also outlined for the UK charity market. The value provided by this paper stems from exploring the organisational perspective rather than the consumer experience of contributing to social networks, within a context which is often overlooked, the charity sector.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.