Hedge Fund Regulation and Misreported Returns

This paper introduces a cross‐country law and finance analysis of the misreporting behaviour in the hedge fund industry in terms of smoothing returns so that a fund consistently generates positive returns. We find strong evidence that international differences in hedge fund regulation are significantly associated with the propensity of fund managers to misreport monthly returns. We find a positive association between wrappers and misreporting, particularly for funds that do not have a lockup provision. Also, we find some evidence that misreporting is less common among funds in jurisdictions with minimum capitalisation requirements and restrictions on the location of key service providers. We assess the robustness of our finds to a number of specifications, including, different specifications of misreporting bin widths, subsets of the data by fund type, as well as specifications controlling for collinearity and selection effects and other robustness checks. We show misreporting significantly affects capital allocation, and calculate the wealth transfer effects of misreporting and relate this wealth transfer to differences in hedge fund regulation.     

Regulatory induced performance persistence: Evidence from hedge funds

This paper tests the idea that financial regulation can impact performance persistence in the context of the hedge fund industry in 48 countries over the years 1994–2008. The data show evidence of three types of regulation influencing performance persistence: (1) minimum capital restrictions, which restrict lower quality funds and hence increase the likelihood of performance persistence, (2) restrictions on location of key service providers, which restrict human capital choices and hence tend to mitigate performance persistence, and (3) distribution channels, which make fund performance more opaque, decrease the likelihood of performance persistence. We do not find evidence that distribution channels, that promote fund presence to institutional investors, enhance performance persistence. Finally, we show differences in the effect of regulation on persistence by fund quartile ranking.     

Seasonality in Fund Performance: An Examination of the Portfolio Holdings and Trades of Investment Managers

Abstract:  This study examines the extent to which seasonal variation arises across calendar months in the performance of active Australian equity managers. While it is well documented that there is seasonality in equity market returns, it is unknown whether calendar month variation in managed fund performance exists. Employing a unique database of monthly stock holdings, we find evidence consistent with systematic variation in the risk-adjusted performance of active investment managers over the calendar year. Specifically, we find fund performance is higher in the months when corporate earnings are announced. We also document that the performance of fund managers is lower in the months preceding the tax year-end. Finally, we report evidence that investment manager performance is greater than normal in December, possibly due to both window dressing and the Christmas holiday effect. These findings have important implications for investors attempting to exploit anomalies in fund returns by timing their entry and exit points from active equity funds.     

The 52-week high,momentum, and predicting mutual fund returns

George and Hwang (J Finance 59:2145–2176, 2004) have shown that the 52-week high share price carries significant predictive ability for individual stock returns, dominating other common momentum-based trading strategies. Based upon their results and other methods, this paper examines and compares the performance of three momentum trading strategies for mutual funds, including an analogous 1-year high measure for the net asset value of mutual fund shares. Strategies based on prior extreme returns and on fund exposure to stock return momentum are also examined. Results show that all three measures have significant, independent, predictive ability for fund returns. Further, each produces a distinctive pattern in momentum profits, whether measured in raw or risk-adjusted returns, with profits from momentum loading being the least transitory. Nearness to the 1-year high and recent extreme returns are significant predictors of fund monthly cash flows, whereas fund momentum loading is not.     

Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry

This paper presents evidence on the relation between hedge fund returns and restrictions imposed by funds that limit the liquidity of fund investors. The excess returns of funds with lockup restrictions are approximately 4–7% per year higher than those of nonlockup funds. The average alpha of all funds is negative or insignificant after controlling for lockups and other share restrictions. Also, a negative relation is found between share restrictions and the liquidity of the fund's portfolio. This suggests that share restrictions allow funds to efficiently manage illiquid assets, and these benefits are captured by investors as a share illiquidity premium.     

Performance Chasing,Fund Flows and Fund Size in Real Estate Mutual Funds

Real estate mutual funds have grown dramatically in number, size, scope and assets under management over the last 15 years, but little assessment is evident. The present study addresses this limitation. Better prior period performance is associated with greater shares of fund inflows for a period. Returns, however, are negatively associated with increased fund flows and fund size. Investors chase past performance limiting fund managers’ ability to optimize investments. Under normal market conditions, but departing from typical mutual fund performance, real estate mutual fund returns generally exceed relevant benchmarks on a before expenses basis and match benchmark returns after expenses. The ability to meet and exceed benchmark returns, however, does not hold during the financial crisis period. Overall, more established funds are shown to have higher returns while fund turnover is not a determinant of returns.     

Fund manager conviction and investment performance

This paper examines the role conviction plays in asset management and its relationship with investment returns. We measure the strength of fund manager conviction through a fund's Active Share, i.e., the extent to which an investment portfolio differs from its benchmark index. First, we show fund manager conviction increases following both superior and, surprisingly, inferior past performance, and more so among solo-managed than team-managed funds. Second, and more importantly, we find an inverse-U relationship between conviction and subsequent performance. High levels of conviction proxied by high Active Share are associated with lower future returns and greater fund risk. Our study also illustrates an asymmetric investor reaction to fund manager conviction in the form of higher (lower) fund inflows rewarding good performance by high (low) conviction managers, but no pronounced penalties for poor performance, ceteris paribus.     

The effect of investor service costs on mutual fund performance

We examine the effect of investor service costs on mutual fund performance. Benchmarking passive funds against ETFs managed by the same fund company with the same investment objectives, we show that passive funds on average underperform ETFs by 42 bps in annualized net returns, of which about 90% can be attributed to investor service costs. Further benchmarking active funds against passive funds, we show that active funds on average outperform passive funds by 31 bps in annualized gross returns. However, the higher expense ratios charged by active funds lead to about 28 bps of underperformance in annualized net fund returns.     

Performance Manipulation and Fund Flow: Evidence from China

In this paper, we assess the relation between fund flow and fund returns in China's open-ended fund industry. Analyzing quarterly data from the period January 2005-December 2012, we construct a simultaneous equation model that captures the endogeneity of current and past returns and flows and find that contemporaneous returns have a key role in determining fund flows. We then estimate the fund performance "manipulation degree" to further investigate the performance manipulation effect on fund flows. We find that manipulated funds can attract an additional flow of money and that, notably, individual rather than institutional investors are more likely to be deceived by manipulative behavior.     

Hedge fund liquidity and performance: Evidence from the financial crisis

We investigate how share restrictions affect hedge fund performance in crisis and non-crisis periods. Consistent with prior research, we find that in the pre-crisis period more illiquid funds generate a share illiquidity premium compensating investors for limited liquidity. In the crisis period, this share illiquidity premium turns into an illiquidity discount. Hedge funds with more stringent share restrictions invest more heavily in illiquid assets. While share restrictions enable funds to manage illiquid assets effectively in the pre-crisis period, they seem insufficient to ensure effective management of illiquid portfolios in the crisis. In a crisis period, funds holding illiquid portfolios experience lower returns and alphas, also when share restrictions are controlled for. Funds with an asset–liability mismatch perform particularly poorly and experience the strongest outflows. Share restrictions are also a proxy for incentives as investors cannot immediately withdraw their money after poor performance. We show that higher incentive fees can offset the share illiquidity discount in the crisis period.     

Higher risk,lower returns: What hedge fund investors really earn

The returns of hedge fund investors depend not only on the returns of the funds they hold but also on the timing and magnitude of their capital flows in and out of these funds. We use dollar-weighted returns (a form of Internal Rate of Return (IRR)) to assess the properties of actual investor returns on hedge funds and compare them to buy-and-hold fund returns. Our main finding is that annualized dollar-weighted returns are on the magnitude of 3% to 7% lower than corresponding buy-and-hold fund returns. Using factor models of risk and the estimated dollar-weighted performance gap, we find that the real alpha of hedge fund investors is close to zero. In absolute terms, dollar-weighted returns are reliably lower than the return on the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index, and are only marginally higher than the risk-free rate as of the end of 2008. The combined impression from these results is that the return experience of hedge fund investors is much worse than previously thought.     

Improving the Health of Healthcare Companies

The healthcare sector has been extremely effective in improving human health while at the same time delivering outstanding returns to shareholders, at least on average. But averages can hide a lot of poor performance, and careful examination of the sector shows a sizable disparity between the long‐run productivity and value added of the top companies and the rest. To better understand the reasons for this disparity, the authors undertook a comprehensive study of how differences in capital deployment strategies, financial policies, and measures of corporate operating performance such as sales growth and return on capital are associated with returns to shareholders. Perhaps the most striking finding is the strong positive correlation in the healthcare industry between higher rates of reinvestment, especially in the form of spending on R&D and acquisitions, and stock price performance. And given the importance of such reinvestment, it is not surprising that maintaining financial flexibility by paying down net debt and otherwise limiting corporate leverage—and even issuing significant equity—are all associated with higher stock returns. When it comes to operating performance, moreover, it's not enough just to be good; it takes growth and improvement in cash flow and earnings to drive share prices higher. Measures of changes in performance such as increases in EBIT and ROIC, and high rates of growth in sales, all show consistently strong and positive relationships with stock returns while measures of levels of performance, especially EBIT margins and EBITDA margins, demonstrate relationships that are weak and in some cases even negative. Last, and consistent with the findings reported above, despite often vocal investor demands to pay dividends and buy back shares, in the case of healthcare as a whole such distributions have a clearly inverse relationship with share price performance. That is to say, the larger the payouts to shareholders, the lower the shareholder returns.     

Luck versus Skill in the Cross‐Section of Mutual Fund Returns

The aggregate portfolio of actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds is close to the market portfolio, but the high costs of active management show up intact as lower returns to investors. Bootstrap simulations suggest that few funds produce benchmark‐adjusted expected returns sufficient to cover their costs. If we add back the costs in fund expense ratios, there is evidence of inferior and superior performance (nonzero true α) in the extreme tails of the cross‐section of mutual fund α estimates.     

The Value and Risk of Defined Contribution Pension Schemes: International Evidence

We use historical data on investment returns and labor income from 16 countries to quantify the value and risk of defined contribution pension plans, building frequency distributions of pension fund and pension replacement ratios for each country. We show that pension risk is substantial and find that pension fund ratios are lower and less variable than when the correlation between wage growth and investment returns is ignored, typically halving the median pension fund ratio. We also show that an all‐equity fund is the dominant investment strategy across all countries, although sometimes a life‐cycle strategy insures against downside risk.     

Size and investment performance: a research note

This article examines the performance of actively managed Australian equity funds and the extent to which both fund size and manager size are related to risk-adjusted returns. Larger investment managers, by definition, engage in higher trade volume. The literature documents that transaction costs and trade difficulty increase with trade size, given difficulties associated with 'large' trades and their potential market impact on security prices. Therefore, ceteris paribus , large orders are consistent with lower levels of efficiency in trade execution and higher transaction costs. While larger investment managers may experience material disadvantages relative to their smaller counterparts, the Australian literature to date has largely ignored the issues of asset size and the long run performance of investment offerings. This article, employing returns and fund size data that control for survivorship bias, documents that while large retail active equity funds earn higher risk-adjusted returns (after expenses) than small funds, the difference in mean performance is not significantly different. In the institutional sphere, the study also finds no statistically significant performance differences (net of expenses) between funds on the basis of portfolio size. These findings suggest the hypothesis that performance declines with fund size is not supported empirically.     

Yet another look at mutual fund tournaments

We revisit the empirical evidence on the tournament hypothesis for the behavior of mutual fund managers provided by Busse [J. Financ. Quant. Anal. 36 (2001) 53]. First, we give analytical expressions for the biases arising in volatility estimates (based on both daily and monthly data) due to first-order autocorrelation effects in daily fund returns. These calculations show that tests of the tournament hypothesis based on monthly data are more robust to autocorrelation effects than tests based on daily data. Second, to address the impact of cross-correlated fund returns on these tests, we provide explicit conditions under which the tests proposed in the literature have appropriate size properties.     

A Portfolio's Country Exposure Management: The Case of Latin American Mutual Funds

This study empirically examines the forecasting ability and performance of Latin American fund managers by evaluating changes in portfolio country exposure. It employs a methodology based on attribution returns. An attribution return is defined as the difference between the actual monthly fund return and the return that would have been generated by the previous month portfolio's country exposure. The study finds three major results. In the aggregate, Latin American fund managers demonstrate forecasting ability as evidenced by a positive and statistically significant attribution return. The fund managers outperform a regional benchmark when measured with Jensen's alpha, and the attribution return is positively correlated with alpha. Attribution returns are mostly negative during periods of financial instability in the region.     

Convertible Bond Arbitrage: Risk and Return

Abstract:  This paper specifies a simulated convertible bond arbitrage portfolio to characterise the risks in convertible bond arbitrage. For comparison the risk profile of convertible bond arbitrage hedge fund indices at both monthly and daily frequencies is also examined. Results indicate that convertible bond arbitrage is positively related to default and term structure risk factors. These risk factors are augmented with the simulated convertible bond arbitrage portfolio, mimicking a passive investment in convertible bond arbitrage, to assess the risk and return of individual hedge funds. We provide estimates of the performance of two hedge fund indices (an equally weighted and value weighted index) and a sample of convertible bond arbitrage hedge funds using a factor model methodology. Lagged and contemporaneous observations of the risk factors are specified, controlling for illiquidity in the securities held by funds. Our results cover two time periods. Initially we find evidence of abnormal risk adjusted returns in the individual hedge fund data and the equally weighted hedge fund index and no evidence of abnormal risk adjusted returns in the value weighted hedge fund index. When we examine performance during the credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 we find evidence of negative abnormal returns amongst individual hedge funds and the hedge fund indices.     

The Empirical Distribution of UK and US Stock Returns

There is now substantial evidence that daily equity returns are not normally distributed but instead display significant leptokurtosis and, in many cases, skewness. Considerable effort has been made in order to capture these empirical characteristics using a range of ad hoc statistical distributions. In this paper, we investigate the distribution of daily, weekly and monthly equity returns in the UK and US using two very flexible families of distributions that have been recently introduced: the exponential generalised beta (EGB) and the skewed generalised- t (SGT). These distributions permit very diverse levels of skewness and kurtosis and, between them, nest many of the distributions previously considered in the literature. Both the EGB and the SGT provide a very substantial improvement over the normal distribution in both markets. Moreover, for daily returns, we strongly reject the restrictions on the EGB and SGT implied by most of the distributions that are commonly used for modelling equity returns, including the student- t , the power exponential and the logistic distributions. Instead, our preferred distributions for daily returns are the generalised- t for the US and the skewed- t for the UK, both of which are members of the SGT family. For weekly returns, our preferred distributions are the student- t for the UK and the skewed- t for the US, while for monthly returns, our preferred distributions are the EBR12 for the UK and the logistic for the US. We consider the implications of our findings for the implementation of value-at-risk, a risk management methodology that rests heavily on the distributional characteristics of returns.     

Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamicmutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyzewhether managers with market-timing ability can be identifiedex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary leastsquares (OLS) timing models produce false positives (nonzeroalphas) at too high a rate with either daily or monthly data.In contrast, the Kalman filter model produces them at approximatelythe correct rate with monthly data; (ii) In monthly data, thoughthe OLS models fail to detect any timing among fund managers,the Kalman filter does; (iii) The alpha and beta forecasts fromthe Kalman model are more accurate than those from the OLS timingmodels; (iv) The Kalman filter model tracks most fund alphasand betas better than OLS models that employ macroeconomic variablesin addition to fund returns.