Valuation of a Developmental Drug as a Real Option

Valuing a capital investment as a real option (or series of options) has advantages over standard DCF valuation when the investment creates the future flexibility to delay, abandon, or expand an element of the project based on the resolution of a major source of uncertainty. The uncertainty is generally dealt with using a “volatility” term that aims to reflect the variability in the future value of the underlying asset. But there are certain situations in which the uncertainty has a second dimension. For example, drugs in development can be abandoned either because of bad technical outcomes (the drug doesn't work) or unfavorable resolutions of market risk (though the drug works, its market potential turns out to be too limited). In an article published earlier in this journal, the authors illustrated the valuation of an early‐stage pharma R&D investment using a real options approach in which the market and technical risks were folded together into the volatility parameter. In this article, the authors explain why they have concluded that this is an incorrect approach and then show how to handle market and technical risk as two separate dimensions of risk in valuing an R&D program. The potential use of this technique extends beyond pharma and biotech R&D to any situation in which the outcome of an important uncertainty is independent of the resolution of market risk associated with the underlying asset.     

Valuing the Option to Purchase an Asset at a Proportional Discount

I analyze the value of a nonstandard call option that allows the holder to purchase an underlying asset at a discount proportional to the asset's market price. Several applications for this type of option exist, including its use in employee compensation contracts. I derive the value of this option for a dividend-paying asset and for an option whose exercise price reflects a time-varying discount factor. The derived value incorporates the optimal time at which the option should be exercised. One application of this option relates to a residential real estate program in China.     

Euro Membership as a Real Option Trigger: An Empirical Study of EU15 Manufacturing Firms

This article summarizes the authors' study of manufacturing firms in the 15 countries that made up the EU prior to its 2004 expansion. The study's main finding is that the introduction of the Euro has made companies based in one of the 12 countries that opted to adopt the Euro more inclined than firms based in one of the three non‐adopters (the U.K., Sweden, and Denmark) to exercise various forms of real options such as establishing alliances or partnerships, entering new markets, switching suppliers, or otherwise expanding within the Euro‐area. The study also shows that smaller, more profitable but financially constrained companies are particularly likely to exercise such real options triggered by the introduction of the Euro.     

Pursuing Value Through Liquidity in IPOs: Underpricing,Share Retention,Lockup, and Trading Volume Relationships

We argue that in an initial public offering (IPO), pre-IPO owners make decisions regarding underpricing, share retention, and share lockup simultaneously and optimally to maximize aftermarket liquidity. We predict that underpricing fosters higher trading volume in both the short run and the long run. Also, liquidity is negatively related to the proportion of shares retained by pre-IPO owners, ceteris paribus, so IPO underpricing should be positively related to the proportion of shares retained, as an offset. We document evidence consistent with these predictions. In addition, we find that, for IPOs with a lockup restriction, underpricing is more substantial and the positive relation between share retention and underpricing is much stronger. We also find that the relationship between underpricing and trading volume is stronger for IPOs with lockup. IPOs with lockup have higher trading volume, and a significant portion of this difference is associated with the effect of underpricing.JEL Classification: G10, G14, G24     

Computing a Multivariate Normal Integral for Valuing Compound Real Options

We extend the Geske (1979) model to a multivariate normal integral for the valuation of a compound real option. We compared the computing speeds and errors of three numerical integration methods, namely, Drezner's improved Gauss quadrature method, Monte Carlo method and Lattice method, together with appropriate critical value finding methods. It is found that secant method for finding critical values combined with Lattice method and run by Fortran took merely one second, Monte Carlo method 120 seconds. It is also found that the real option decreases with interest rate, not necessarily positively correlated with volatility , a result different from that anticipated under financial option theory. This is mainly because the underlying of real option is a non-traded asset, which brings dividend-like yield into the formula of compound real options. Dividend-like yield rises with the multiplication of correlation coefficient and . High indicates the poor diversification advantage of the new investment project in relation to the existing market portfolio, and the value of real call option decreases with . Conversely, when is low, the proposed project provides better diversification advantage and the real call option rises with . Irrespective of the value of , when interest rate increases, the value of real call option drops, especially when is high, the value of the project is dominated by interest rate.     

Liquidity and Liquidation: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study provides evidence that highly leveraged owner-managed properties liquidated assets during the commercial real estate decline of the late 1980s, and that this provided buying opportunities for better capitalized buyers. The analysis documents significant financial distress costs for highly leveraged firms during an industry-wide downturn and shows that these costs are particularly large for owner-managed firms.     

上市房企流动性风险显著增加-2014年上市房企中报分析

上市房企资产负债率创历史新高,非龙头企业债务负担形势严峻
　　名义资产负债率远超警戒线。2014年二季度末,开发类房企整体资产负债率达到76.4%,创历史新高,并远超70%的警戒线。其中,招保万金（招商地产、保利地产、万科A、金地集团）4家龙头房企的资产负债率远高于整体水平,达到77.4%,较2013年自身的平均水平有所降低;其他房企的资产负债率为75.6%,再创历史新高（见图1）。     

Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity

We develop a dynamic model of a limit order market populatedby strategic liquidity traders of varying impatience. In equilibrium,patient traders tend to submit limit orders, whereas impatienttraders submit market orders. Two variables are the key determinantsof the limit order book dynamics in equilibrium: the proportionof patient traders and the order arrival rate. We offer severaltestable implications for various market quality measures suchas spread, trading frequency, market resiliency, and time toexecution for limit orders. Finally, we show the effect of imposinga minimal price variation on these measures.     

Information Asymmetry and Corporate Liquidity Management: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

We examine the impact of information asymmetry on a firm??s choice between cash and credit lines for corporate liquidity management using a panel data set from real estate investment trusts (REITs). Information asymmetry, as measured by analyst forecast error and dispersion, is negatively related to the use of lines of credit. Specifically, firms with more severe information asymmetry are less likely to have access to bank credit lines. Concurrently, more transparent firms are more likely to utilize bank credit lines as opposed to cash for liquidity management. The results are robust to alternative information asymmetry proxies and specifications. These findings suggest that information asymmetry plays an important role in corporate liquidity management.     

Liquidity as a choice variable: a lesson from the Japanese government bond market

In Japan, almost identical government bonds can trade at largeprice differentials. Motivated by this phenomenon, we examinethe issue of the value of liquidity in markets for risklesssecurities. We develop a model of an issuer of bonds, a marketmaker, and heterogeneous investors trading in an incompletemarket. We show not only that divergent prices for similar securitiescan be sustained in a rational expectations equilibrium butalso that this divergence may be optimal from the perspectiveof the issuer. Price segmentation is possible because agentshave a desire to trade, but short-sale restrictions limit theirtrading strategies and prevent them from forcing bond pricesto be equal. Restricting the form of market making to excludeprice competition and unregulated profit maximization is alsonecessary to sustain price segmentation. The optimality of segmentationfrom the issuer's standpoint arises because of the issuer'sability to charge for the liquidity services provided to theinvestors.     

The Distributional Efficiency of Alternative Regulatory Regimes: A Real Option Approach

This paper studies the effects of regulatory constraints on firm's irreversible investment decisions. The RPI–x rule is compared to a profit sharing rule, which increases the x factor in case profits go beyond a given level.When the firm has an option to delay investment, these rules have the same impact on investment choices. As profit sharing has a greater ability to extract rents, however, it is more efficient than the RPI–x rule.     

Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications

We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.

沉淀成本与企业风险投资:一个实物期权方法

由于企业在投资过程中面临着沉淀成本、不确定性和可延期性,所以不能简单地依据新古典投资理论进行决策,只能依靠实物期权方法.这样,我们发现产权理论、委托代理等手段都是着眼于要素市场沉淀成本管理的重要制度安排.但这些还不够,还需要考虑产品市场的定价构成原则,其根本目的在于补偿沉淀成本及其期权价值,从而将产品定价机制与要素非市场治理结构有机结合起来.     

Liquidity: Considerations of a Portfolio Manager

This paper examines liquidity and how it affects the behavior of portfolio managers, who account for a significant portion of trading in many assets. We define an asset to be perfectly liquid if a portfolio manager can trade the quantity she desires when she desires at a price not worse than the uninformed expected value. A portfolio manager is limited by both what she needs to attain and the ease with which she can attain it, making her sensitive to three dimensions of liquidity: price, timing, and quantity. Deviations from perfect liquidity in any of these dimensions impose shadow costs on the portfolio manager. By focusing on the trade-off between sacrificing on price and quantity instead of the canonical price-time trade-off, the model yields several novel empirical implications. Understanding a portfolio manager's liquidity considerations provides important insights into the liquidity of many assets and asset classes.     

Real money balances as a productive input: Further evidence

Using a translog production function and data from the United States private sector over the period 1929–1972, this paper clarifies the theoretical debate which has occured on whether real money balances are an original factor input or a catalyst with a role similar to technological innovation. Real money balances are found to be an important factor input that cannot be treated as separable from the primary factor inputs capital and labor. Furthermore, the results indicate that real money balances are substitutes for capital but complements with labor while capital and labor are, in a relative sense complements.     

Fiscal Requirements for Dynamic and Real Determinacies in Economies with Private Provision of Liquidity: A Monetarist Assessment

We study the impact of fiscal policies on the inherent links between inflation, unemployment, and asset prices in an environment where firms provide liquidity and the central bank follows a constant money growth rate rule. Firms, other than hiring workers, also supply private assets that are not only useful as a store of value but also as collateral. When firms are not taxed and public debt is scarce, the economy is non-Ricardian so that real indeterminacies can be observed. Moreover, labor market characteristics do not affect the demand for government liabilities. However, when agents face public and private asset scarcity, labor market conditions then impact asset prices and inflation. We further show that irrespective of the type of asset scarcity agents face, when firms are taxed non-ad valorem, not only the level of tax revenues but also its composition matter for real allocations. Moreover, we show that labor market conditions directly affect the dynamics of all government liabilities and inflation.     

清算价格测算与流动性风险评价——以中国建设银行为例

市场冲击和银行财务状况共同决定贷款清算价格。市场冲击也是引发流动性风险的一个重要外因,其随机特征使以清算价格为基础的贷款测算比现行以会计核算为基础的短期流动性缺口管理更适合市场冲击测试。2013年末中国建设银行流动性缺口尽管为负,但是贷款清算折扣很小,流动性管理具有效率性。积极推进信贷资产证券化是流动性风险管理中控制清算折扣的一条有效途径。     

Option pricing with quadratic volatility: a revisit

This paper considers the pricing of European options on assets that follow a stochastic differential equation with a quadratic volatility term. We correct several errors in the existing literature, extend the pricing formulas to arbitrary root configurations, and list alternative representations of option pricing formulas to improve computational performance. Our exposition is based entirely on probabilistic arguments, adding a fresh perspective and new intuition to the existing PDE-dominated literature on the subject. Our main tools are martingale methods and shifts of probability measures; the fact that the underlying process is typically a strict local martingale is carefully considered throughout the paper.     

分业经营:我国流动牲过剩原因的一种新视角

本文从分业经营的金融体制这一角度探讨了我国流动性过剩的原因.首先分析了分业经营体制通过何种渠道造成了流动性过剩,然后对改革我国目前的分业经营体制,循序渐进的使分业经营的金融体制向混业经营过渡提出了建议.     

Option Value to Waiting Created by a Control Problem

We study a principal-agent model in which there is an option to defer a capital project approval decision. A control (incentive) problem makes the option to wait valuable when it would not have been valuable otherwise. Deferring the project approval decision has both a cost and a benefit. The cost of waiting is that the agent's uncertainty regarding future project cost realizations cannot be exploited. However, by delaying the first project's approval decision, the principal can condition its approval on the agent's cost report of the second project. Such conditioning can be valuable in the provision of incentives because of a diversification effect.