Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy

We introduce a new approach to estimate asymmetric Taylor reaction functions where asymmetries depend crucially on the state of the economy which is in the Taylor rule framework the combination of inflation and output deviations. Thus we categorize the sample into four subsamples which correspond to all possible combinations concerning inflation and output deviations. Moreover we introduce a quadratic term of inflation and the output gap in the estimation equation for each state in order to capture possible non-linearities within each state. The approach is tested using data for the ECB because the ECB has communicated an explicit inflation target.     

Does money help predict inflation? An empirical assessment for Central Europe

This paper investigates the predictive ability of money for future inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. We construct monetary indicators similar to those the European Central Bank regularly uses for monetary analysis. We find in-sample evidence that money matters for future inflation at the policy horizons that central banks typically focus on, but our pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that money does not in general improve the inflation forecasts vis-à-vis some benchmark models such as the autoregressive process. Since at least some models containing money improve the inflation forecasts in certain periods, we argue that money still serves as a useful cross-check for monetary policy analysis.     

Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model

This paper employs smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to investigate the nonlinear effect of monetary policy on stock returns. The change in the Federal funds rate is used as an endogenous measure of monetary policy, and the growth rate of industrial production is also considered in the model. Our results show that the relationship between the monetary policy and excess returns on stock prices is positive and nonlinear. A decrease in the Federal funds rate causes a larger increase in excess returns if excess stock returns are located in the extreme low excess returns regime.     

Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications

This study looks at the characteristics and determinants of booms and busts in housing prices for a sample of eighteen industrialised countries over the period 1980–2007. From an historical perspective, we find that recent housing booms have been amongst the longest in the past four decades. Estimates of a Multinomial Probit model suggest that domestic credit and interest rates have a significant influence on the probability of booms and busts occurring. Moreover, international liquidity plays a significant role for the occurrence of housing booms and—in conjunction with banking crises—for busts. We also find that the deregulation of financial markets has strongly magnified the impact of the domestic financial sector on the occurrence of booms.     

Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985–2003

Monetary policy reaction functions are estimated for the UK over three periods – 1985–90, 1992–97 and 1997–2003 – in order to disentangle two effects: the switch from an emphasis on exchange rate stabilization to inflation targeting, and the introduction of instrument-independence in 1997. The external factors considered include US as well as German interest rates, and this leads to the identification of 'domestic' and 'international' models of the reaction function. The results suggest that it is the changes in the institutional arrangements rather than those in the targeting regime which have been decisive in the development of policy in this period.     

Financial reforms and money demand: Evidence from 20 developing countries

The effects of financial reforms on money demand (M1) are analysed with estimates for two sets of sub-samples and two break dates for twenty developing Asian and African countries. In all cases, the magnitude of income elasticity does not change significantly when compared with sub-samples and whole sample periods. Using CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, we find that the demand for money functions in our selected countries are temporally stable and therefore the respective monetary authorities may target money supply as the conduct of monetary policy.     

P-star in times of crisis – Forecasting inflation for the euro area

In this paper we present three empirically testable versions of the common p-star model and evaluate their forecasting performance using conventional techniques. We try to answer the question if the p-star approach is preferable to achieve a reliable short-run inflation forecast and with regard to the latter we incur the need for a stable demand for money function. Our findings indicate the recurrence of the relevance of the monetary pillar of the ECB's two-pillar framework. In addition, we check for the effects of the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 on the forecasting performance, using two sub-sample periods, one excluding and one including the latter, and analyze the impact of the applied filter technique to compute the required equilibrium values.     

Taxation in an economy with private provision of public goods

This paper analyses the effects of taxation and subsidies in an economy with private provision of a public good. It is shown that in a situation where all individuals contribute, taxation affects the equilibrium allocation if and only if at least one individual's voluntary contribution to the public good has an impact on the aggregate tax payments of the others. We then consider linear nonneutral tax-subsidy schemes and analyse efficiency and uniqueness of the resulting Nash equilibria. We show that an efficient Nash equilibrium, where all individuals contribute, will in general not be unique, and establish a non-uniformity property which a tax-subsidy scheme must fulfil in order to induce a unique interior equilibrium that is efficient. Throughout the paper it is assumed that individuals fully understand and take into account the government's budget constraint. Received: 3 November 1997 / Accepted: 23 March 1999     

Exchange rate regime choice and currency crises

Exchange rate regime choice is not exogenous, but it depends on the structural, political and financial features of countries. However, it is often the case that the regime actually pursued and the one that is imposed by country features do not match one to one. The existing empirical crisis models do not take fully into account the regime in which the crisis unfolded. The aim of this paper is to incorporate the appropriateness of the regime choice into the standard currency crisis model. The results show that the odds of crisis increase significantly in countries which have chosen regimes inconsistently.     

The graph of Lindahl correspondence as the unique von Neumann-Morgenstern abstract stable set

In this paper, we consider a continuum economy with a finite number of types of agent, and several private and public goods. The main result of the paper is that the graph of the equal-treatment Lindahl equilibria mapping is the unique abstract stable set with respect to the dominance relation in economies with crowding effects introduced by Vasil'ev et al. in 1995. The external stability of this mapping implies that, for any equal-treatment allocation x in , that is not a Lindahl equilibrium, there exists a subeconomy of such that one of its equal-treatment Lindahl allocations blocks x. This result is a counterpart of the theorem of Mas-Colell for Aumann's atomless market with private goods.     

Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement

This paper describes the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, residential investment, credit, interest rates, and real activity in advanced economies during the past 25 years. Stylized facts and regularities are uncovered using a dynamic generalized factor model and spectral techniques. House price cycles are found to lead credit and real activity over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. Although global factors are important, the US business cycle, housing cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the US credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.