Investor type trading behavior and trade performance: Evidence from the Thai stock market

This paper examines the trading behavior and decomposes the trading performance of foreign, individual and institutional investors as well as proprietary traders in a dynamic emerging stock market, the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Foreign investors follow a positive feedback, momentum strategy and are good short term market timers but have poor security selection performance in poor markets, thus suggesting that they have a macro (market timing) but not a micro (security selection) informational advantage relative to local investors. Institutions and proprietary traders have poor security selection trading performance. Individuals display herding behavior and have fairly good security selection performance, but individual investors appear to compensate proprietary traders for the provision of short term liquidity by proprietary traders, so individuals' security selection gains are canceled out by market timing losses.     

International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets

This paper examines the information transmission between Japan and the US by using the Tokyo Euroyen and Chicago Eurodollar futures. These two interest rate futures markets provide a better understanding of international information transmission than stock markets, which have been shown to exhibit nonsynchronous trading and market segmentation. The results show that traders in Tokyo (Chicago) use information that is revealed overnight in Chicago (Tokyo). The bivariate EGARCH-t model provides no evidence of volatility spillovers in either direction, suggesting that the opening price rapidly reflects foreign information. The overall results support the hypothesis that the domestic market efficiently adjusts to foreign news. The results are also broadly consistent with the covered interest arbitrage effects.     

Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets

This paper studies volatility, risk premia and the persistence of volatility in six emerging stock markets before and after the 1987 stock market crash. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of the GARCH in the mean model (GARCH-M) and monthly data from Argentina, Greece, India, Mexico, Thailand, and Zimbabwe between January of 1976 and August of 1994. Results indicate changes in the ARCH parameter, risk premia and persistence of volatility before and after the 1987 crash. But these noted changes are not uniform and depend upon the individual markets. Factors other than the 1987 crash may also be responsible for the changes.     

Credit supply and corporate capital structure: Evidence from Japan

In this paper we examine how financial constraints, especially fluctuations in the supply of credit, affect the capital structure of 1537 publicly listed Japanese firms from 1980 to 2007, in a data set with 33,000 observations. It is one of the first studies to do so and is inspired by the recent studies of Leary (2009) and Faulkender and Petersen (2006). Japan was selected due to the extreme credit supply fluctuations observed during the last 30 years. It thus offers an ideal natural experiment to test the impact of credit supply on corporate capital structure. In particular, in our panel data study we investigated the impact of the asset bubble in the 1980s and the credit crunch of the late 1990s on corporate capital structure decisions. The results of this paper show, among other findings, that financial policy decisions are indeed influenced by monetary conditions and the supply of credit. In particular, smaller sized firms face financial constraints, especially during economic downturns.     

What determines market development?: Lessons from Latin American derivatives markets with an emphasis on Chile

There is considerable heterogeneity in the development of derivatives markets in different countries. The question is: why? This paper addresses this question in the context of major derivatives markets in Latin America. The largest derivatives exchanges in Latin America are located in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. In addition, over-the-counter (OTC) markets exist in Chile and Peru. Excluding Peru, Chile's derivatives market is to date the least developed. We show that this is due to regulatory constrains and illiquidity. Domestic transactions are OTC, and consist mostly of exchange rate forwards. Recent changes in the Central Bank of Chile's exchange rate policy have not had a considerable impact on the aggregate trading volume of forwards. However, amendments made to the Law of Capital Markets in 2001 bring the possibility of having a more developed derivatives market in the future.     

The accuracy of the tick test: Evidence from the Australian stock exchange

In the absence of information regarding whether a trade is buyer or seller initiated, many researchers have employed the ‘tick’ rule as a proxy. These researchers have been supported in their endeavours by the work of Lee and Ready (1991) which suggests that the tick rule is 90% accurate. Unfortunately, the difficulty of securing data on this issue has made Lee and Ready's paper somewhat unique in that there have been few attempts to confirm their result in US markets and no attempts in other markets. The purpose of this work is to test the robustness of their result in the Australian securities market. Using cleaner intra-day data we mimic the Lee and Ready study to cast some doubt upon the robustness of their findings in different markets. Our results suggest an overall accuracy of approximately 74% as opposed to Lee and Ready's 90%. However, accuracy in excess of 90% is documented when zero ticks are excluded. Further analysis provides evidence that a volatile or trending market will decrease the accuracy of the tick rule. It is also demonstrated that the tick rule is less likely to accurately classify seller initiated trades and small buyer initiated trades.     

Acquisitions and CEO power: Evidence from French networks

During mergers and acquisitions, the CEOs of the acquiring firms are likely to cancel the deal if the market does not react favorably to its announcement. Using a sample of French acquisition announcements during the period from 2000 to 2005, this paper studies the conditions in which CEOs are more willing to listen to investors. Furthermore, according to the strong networks developed through French elite schools' alumni and board ties, the well-connected CEOs are more likely to complete any deal in spite of a negative market reaction to acquisition announcements.     

The risk in hedge fund strategies: Theory and evidence from long/short equity hedge funds

Theory suggests that long/short equity hedge funds' returns come from directional as well as spread bets on the stock market. Empirical analysis finds persistent net exposures to the spread between small vs large cap stocks in addition to the overall market. Together, these factors account for more than 80% of return variation. Additional factors are price momentum and market activity. Combining two major branches of hedge fund research, our model is the first that explicitly incorporates the effect of funding (stock loan) on alpha. Using a comprehensive dataset compiled from three major database sources, we find that among the three thousand plus hedge funds with similar style classification, less than 20% of long/short equity hedge funds delivered significant, persistent, stable positive non-factor related returns. Consistent with the predictions of the Berk and Green (2004) model we find alpha producing funds decays to “beta-only” over time. However, we do not find evidence of a negative effect of fund size on managers' ability to deliver alpha. Finally, we show that non-factor related returns, or alpha, are positively correlated to market activity and negatively correlated to aggregate short interest. In contrast, equity mutual funds and long-bias equity hedge funds have no significant, persistent, non-factor related return. Expressed differently, L/S equity hedge funds, as the name suggests, do benefit from shorting. Besides differences in risk taking behavior, this is a key feature distinguishing L/S funds from long-bias funds.     

Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European (CE) currencies and the EUR/USD foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the CE foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech and, prior to the recent turbulent economic events, Polish currencies, we find no significant spillovers running from the EUR/USD to the CE foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold–Yilmaz volatility spillover index and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.     

A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading

This study identifies a factor that leads to a bias in estimating the probability of informed trading (PIN), a widely-used microstructure measure. It is shown that, along with the numerical maximization of the likelihood function for PIN, the floating-point exception (i.e., overflow or underflow) may eliminate feasible solutions to the actual parameters in the optimization problem. Approximately 44% of PIN estimates for recent stock market data may have been subject to a downward bias that is more pronounced for active stocks than for inactive stocks. This study develops a remedy to mitigate the resulting bias.     

Exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets

This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange rate change on stock returns in the Asian emerging markets. The asymmetric exchange exposure framework and real exchange rates are used in this paper to capture the different exposures between currency appreciation and depreciation and the high inflation effect in the emerging markets. My empirical results show that there did exist extensive exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets from 1997 to 2010. Moreover, foreign exchange exposure became more significant or greater during the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global crisis periods, despite the frequent central banks’ interventions during these periods. The greater exchange exposure during the crisis periods can be attributable to net exporters or firms with dollar assets, implying that firms can reduce exchange exposures by decreasing their export ratio or dollar assets holding during times of crisis.     

Stock market trading activity and returns around milestones

We study the relation between daily stock market trading activity and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (DJIA) movement around millenary milestones—numbers that end in three zeros. We find aggregate turnover to be 5% lower when the DJIA level is less than 1% away from the nearest milestone. The effect emerges as the DJIA approaches a milestone from below, and is stronger for first-time milestones compared to subsequent passages. The aggregate price impact is large, such that daily stock returns show a negative abnormal performance of − 10 basis points. Our findings suggest that millenary milestones of the DJIA play a role in some investors' decision making.     

In- and out-of-sample specification analysis of spot rate models: Further evidence for the period 1982–2008

We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of our empirical analysis are used to carry out a “horse-race” comparing discrete and continuous models across multiple sample periods, forecast horizons, and evaluation intervals. Our evaluation involves comparing models during two distinct historical periods, as well as across our entire weekly sample of Eurodollar deposit rates from 1982 to 2008. Interestingly, when our entire sample of data is used to estimate competing models, the “best” performer in terms of distributional “fit” as well as predictive density accuracy, both in-sample and out-of-sample, is the three factor Chen (Chen, 1996) model examined by Andersen, Benzoni and Lund (2004). Just as interestingly, a logistic type discrete smooth transition autoregression (STAR) model is preferred to the “best” continuous model (i.e. the one factor Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR: 1985) model) when comparing predictive accuracy for the “Stable 1990s” period that we examine. Moreover, an analogous result holds for the “Post 1990s” period that we examine, where the STAR model is preferred to a two factor stochastic mean model. Thus, when the STAR model is parameterized using only data corresponding to a particular sub-sample, it outperforms the “best” continuous alternative during that period. However, when models are estimated using the entire dataset, the continuous CHEN model is preferred, regardless of the variety of model specification (selection) test that is carried out. Given that it is very difficult to ascertain the particular future regime that will ensue when constructing ex ante predictions, thus, the CHEN model is our overall “winning” model, regardless of sample period.     

The role of trading intensity estimating the implicit bid–ask spread and determining transitory effects

In this paper, we investigate the information content of trading intensity applying the Madhavan, Richardson and Roomans (1997) structural model to express trading intensity as trading momentum in duration and volume. Using both transactions and intraday data from the Helsinki Stock Exchange Limit Order Bookmarket, we find that momentum in duration and volume enhances the information effect. We reach this conclusion based on the parametric effect determined by the sign and the magnitude of the coefficients associated with the trading intensity variables, the trading effect determined by the ratio of transitory effects to permanent effects, and the economic effect determined by the size of the implicit bid–ask spread. While we find that the implicit bid–ask spread and transitory effects are decreasing toward the end of the trading day in consistency with information models in the literature, there is a surge of trades at the market close, most probably due to information uncertainty at market opening in New York.     

Dividend signaling under economic adversity: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

The signaling or information content hypothesis is amongst the most prominent theories attempting to explain dividend policy decisions. However, no research has, to date, examined the information content of dividends in conjunction with generalized economic adversity. With the majority of the western economies facing the tough reality of the economic recession since late 2007–early 2008, we focus on the possibility of asymmetrical dividend signaling effects between periods of stability and economic adversity. Using data from the London Stock Exchange (LSE), where earnings and dividend news are released simultaneously, we test the dividend signaling hypothesis and the interaction of earnings and dividends under both steady and adverse economic conditions. We document positive and significant average abnormal stock price returns around the dividend/earnings announcements. We also find a significant interaction between economic conditions and the information content of dividends. After testing the dividend signaling hypothesis under both stable and recessionary economic conditions we find that dividends have less information content than earnings in periods of growth and stability, but more in periods of economic adversity.     

Market risk model selection and medium-term risk with limited data: Application to ocean tanker freight markets

The estimation of medium-term market risk dictated by limited data availability, is a challenging issue of concern amongst academics and practitioners. This paper addresses the issue by exploiting the concepts of volatility and quantile scaling in order to determine the best method for extrapolating medium-term risk forecasts from high frequency data. Additionally, market risk model selection is investigated for a new dataset on ocean tanker freight rates, which refer to the income of the capital good — tanker vessels. Certain idiosyncrasies inherent in the very competitive shipping freight rate markets, such as excessive volatility, cyclicality of returns and the medium-term investment horizons – found in few other markets – make these issues challenging. Findings indicate that medium-term risk exposures can be estimated accurately by using an empirical scaling law which outperforms the conventional scaling laws of the square and tail index root of time. Regarding the market risk model selection for short-term investment horizons, findings contradict most studies on conventional financial assets: interestingly, freight rate market risk quantification favors simpler specifications, such as the GARCH and the historical simulation models.     

Strategic trading by index funds and liquidity provision around S&P 500 index additions

We examine the trades of index funds and other institutions around S&P 500 index additions. We find index funds begin rebalancing their portfolios with the announcement of composition changes and do not fully establish their positions until weeks after the effective date. Trading away from the effective date is more prevalent for stocks with lower levels of liquidity and among large index funds, which is consistent with index funds accepting higher tracking error in order to reduce the price impact of their trades. Small and mid-cap funds provide liquidity to index funds around additions, and added stocks with a greater proportion of these natural liquidity providers experience lower inclusion returns.     

Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry

This paper examines the relation between commodity futures trading and the real side contracting behavior of firms dealing in the commodity. I argue that futures serve as a flexible form of physical contracting and should be examined in the context of the firm's contracting activities, and not strictly in the context of its financial activities. Data from an oil refining company are used to empirically study this relation. The results are consistent with a contracting view of futures use and appear inconsistent with implications of hedging theories.     

Trading frequency and asset pricing on the London Stock Exchange: Evidence from a new price impact ratio

This study proposes a new price impact ratio as an alternative to the widely used Amihud’s (2002) Return-to-Volume ratio. We demonstrate that the new price impact ratio, which is deemed Return-to-Turnover ratio, has a number of appealing features. Using daily data from all stocks listed on the London Stock Exchange over the period 1991–2008, we provide overwhelming evidence that this ratio, while being unequivocal to construct and interpret, is also free of a size bias. More importantly, it encapsulates the stocks’ cross-sectional variability in trading frequency, a relatively neglected but possibly important determinant of stock returns given the recently observed trends in financial markets. Overall, our findings argue against the conventional wisdom that there is a simple direct link between trading costs and stock returns by strongly suggesting that it is the compound effect of trading frequency and transaction costs that matters for asset pricing, not each aspect in isolation.     

Locals, foreigners, and multi-market trading of equities: Intraday evidence from Thailand

We study stock market orders and trades in a developing country, Thailand, where foreign ownership limits partially segment local and foreign investors into two distinct markets. Some foreigners forgo voting rights and distributions to trade on the “local board”, while some locals forgo such benefits and pay a price premium to trade on the “foreign board”. Regardless of nationality, these cross-market traders typically submit orders when liquidity is high, fill orders at relatively beneficial prices, exploit patterns in stock prices across markets, display profitable holding-period returns, and enhance price discovery. This suggests that skilled, informed trading that affects market quality does not depend on trader nationality.