工商银行：加快迈向国际化目标

回首旧岁，中国金融业尤其是银行业的“稳健体魄、创新身姿、转型风采”令人印象深刻。 随着新资本监管标准的实施和利率市场化的推进，银行业机遇与挑战并存。如何调整盈利结构、转变经营模式，如何优化信贷结构、支持实体经济，如何强化客户管理、提升服务水平，都是银行业在愈加激烈的市场竞争下需要思考和解决的问题。     

愿得常如此 年年物候新

“共欢新故岁，迎送一宵中。” 站在新旧交汇的节点上回首过去一年来所走过的路，我们由衷地发现，中国的金融业创造了一路的辉煌和惊喜。     

记忆：因光荣与梦想驰骋

新的一年,新的一页已经翻开,不期然,中国的金融业已经站在了一个历史的新台阶上。回首既往,改革开放趋向深化,为中国金融业的发展装上了加速引擎,以前所未有的速度奔跑在改革之路上,“一行三会”、商业银行股份制改革、汇率改革、股权分置改革……诸多关键词勾勒出中国金融业的巨变,住这些关键词的背后,令我们记忆深刻的是那些推动金融业走上光荣之路、完成梦想的人,     

对拓展商业银行业务的几点想法

中国金融业与世界金融业融合的趋势不可逆转，而且愈来愈快，因此我国商业银行必须加速自我完善和创新。这不仅仅是指制度、管理的创新，还包括业务的创新。     

后WTO时代中国商业银行的金融产品创新

2006年12月11日，我国加入世贸组织5年过渡时期结束，中国金融业与外国金融业在中国大陆的竞争全面展开。中国金融业要能在这场竞争中立于不败之地的关键是自主的、持久的金融创新。而在自主创新中，最重要的是金融产品的自主创新。本文试图对中国“入世”过渡时期结束后金融产品创新问题发表看法。     

回眸与展望:中国商业银行发展思考

改革开放二十年，中国社会经济发生了翻天覆地的变化。同样，作为现代经济核心的金融业也发生了巨大变化，尤其是商业银行的改革与发展更为引入注目。我们不妨回首一下中国商业银行的发展历程，从中探寻中国商业银行发展的新思路。蓦然回首：中国商业银行百花园姹紫嫣红从...     

深化银行业金融创新

党的十七大报告明确提出要提高自主创新能力，建设创新型国家，把增强自主创新能力贯彻到现代化建设的各个方面。对于中国的金融业而言，如何想方设法提高创新能力，借以提升核心竞争力，提高市场占有率同样重要。近几年来，中国金融业的决策者们在带领广大干部员工积极开展探索金融创新的同时，对创新的理念、意义及创新过程中的思考，形成了自己独到的观点及理论，成为金融业的宝贵财富。为此，本刊精选了银监会主席刘明康曾发表的有关金融创新的观点及言论进行刊登，希望这些理论能对中国金融业的创新发展带来有益的启迪。     

天津金融业：六十年跨越式发展

今年是新中国成立六十周年。也是天津金融业不断发展壮大的六十年。回首六十年天津金融业走过的历程．既经历了计划经济时期的曲折发展，又在改革开放中快速崛起，更迎来了滨海新区开发开放历史性机遇。新中国成立六十年，是天津金融事业不断创新、发展、完善的六十年，     

盘点2007

2007年中国的金融业走过了具有历史性的一年。金融市场对外全面开放,让中资金融机构承受了巨大的竞争压力;但全面开放的市场也成就了中国金融机构的快速成长。在这样一个充满机遇与挑战的年份里,中国金融业创下了前所未有的辉煌。无论是银行业、证券业还是保险业都取得了令人瞩目的成就。在踏进新的一年时,让我们回首2007年属于中国金融业的那份荣耀,让我们用一组俗语作为关键词,记录2007年金融业呈现给我们的那段历程。     

盘点2007——银行业：经历“起承转合”

2007年中国的金融业走过了具有历史性的一年。金融市场对外全面开放,让中资金融机构承受了巨大的竞争压力;但全面开放的市场也成就了中国金融机构的快速成长。 在这样一个充满机遇与挑战的年份里,中国金融业创下了前所未有的辉煌。无论是银行业、证券业还是保险业都取得了令人瞩目的成就。在踏进新的一年时,让我们回首2007年属于中国金融业的那份荣耀,让我们用一组俗语作为关键词,记录2007年金融业呈现给我们的那段历程。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.