Inflationsziel und Inflationsmessung in der Eurozone im Wandel

Wirtschaftsdienst - Viele Menschen im Euroraum haben zunehmend das Gefühl, dass der allgemeine Kaufkraftverlust des Geldes sehr viel höher ist als die offiziell gemessenen...     

Zur Kritik der Kapitalmarktunion

This article examines the European Commission’s proposal to establish a Capital Markets Union through facilitated marketbased financing, prominently cross border securitisation. However, facilitated securitisation might raise systemic risks through a deteriorated term transformation, imperfect risk transfer and excessive leverage. It might create a new liquidity glut completely separated from the needs of the real economy. In addition, this concept is contradictory to previous efforts to properly supervise, regulate and control the European financial markets. The essay favours a regulation and control approach combined with extensive EU reforms of the financial sector.     

Zur steuerlichen Bedeutung der Entfernungspauschale

Der Koalitionsvertrag der neuen Bundesregierung sieht vor, eine Pendlerpauschale nur noch ab einer Entfernung von 20 km zu gew?hren. Welche Bedeutung hatte die Entfernungspauschale bisher für die Steuerzahlungen von Arbeitnehmern? Welche Einkommensgruppen werden von der geplanten Kürzung besonders betroffen?     

Zur korrekten Erfassung der staatlichen Verschuldung

Die Haushaltsdefizite und die Staatsverschuldung haben in Deutschland ein hohes Niveau erreicht. Wird aber die staatliche Verschuldung überhaupt korrekt erfasst und bildet die Kameralistik die tatsächlichen Belastungen richtig ab? Lässt sich mit Hilfe der doppelten Buchführung mehr Klarheit gewinnen?     

Zur Rechtsberatung des Verbrauchers in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über Institutionen, Möglichkeiten und Schwachstellen der Rechtsberatung des Verbrauchers in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Rechtsberatung und allgemeine Beratung gehören zusammen. Sofern es nicht um Streitverfolgung geht, findet das Rechtsberatungsgesetz hier keine Anwendung. Angesichts der wachsenden Bedeutung der Rechtsberatung sollten alle Möglichkeiten zu ihrer Verbesserung ergriffen werden.

---

Legal counselling of consumers in the Federal Republic of Germany

This contribution surveys the institutions, strengths and weaknesses of consumer counselling in the F. R. G., especially legal counselling. It is maintained that no firm borderline should be drawn between legal counselling and general economic and buying guidance. The prevailing interpretation of the German law on legal counselling (Rechtsberatungsgesetz) is held to hinder the development of consumer counselling into an integrated system for advising consumers.

---

---

Armin Schoreit ist Regierungsdirektor im Bundesministerium der Justiz, D-5300 Bonn.     

Time to Change Budgetary Priorities in the Eurozone

Intereconomics - With the spectre of a recession looming in the eurozone (and elsewhere), the policy question arises as to how much leeway do the fiscal authorities in the eurozone have to follow...     

Quantitative Easing in the Eurozone: a One-Year Assessment

By pumping trillions of euros into the eurozone’s financial system, the ECB’s quantitative easing programme intends to indirectly alter the private sector’s borrowing and spending behaviour. After more than a year since its initial inception, a review of the programme’s impact reveals that policy makers should think twice before further expanding the programme–and could benefit from considering more direct ways of increasing spending in the real economy.     

Making Social Investment Happen for the Eurozone

Half a decade after the euro crisis, the European Union is in dire need of a growth strategy that is economically viable, politically legitimate and seen as socially fair. The United Kingdom’s fateful choice for Brexit has given new urgency to this imperative. While it is deplorable to lose a strong political force behind the internal market, Britain’s decision to leave the EU does create a window of opportunity for taking the Union’s “social market economy” ambitions, as laid down in Articles 2 and 3 of the Lisbon Treaty, more seriously than before.     

Zur Reform der Pflegeversicherung: Einstieg in ein nachhaltiges und wettbewerbliches System

Bundesgesundheitsminister R?sler hat für 2011 eine umfassende Pflegereform sowohl der Leistungsseite als auch der Einnahmenstruktur angekündigt. Die Autoren dieses Beitrags machen den Vorschlag, die umlagefinanzierte Pflegeversicherung um eine kapitalgedeckte S?ule zu erg?nzen.     

A modest proposal for resolving the Eurozone crisis

This paper presents three simple policies for overcoming the crisis that can be implemented immediately and require none of the moves such as national guarantees or fiscal transfers to which many Europeans are opposed, nor moves towards federation that entail Treaty changes, which electorates are most likely to reject. The logic behind these policy proposals is juxtaposed with the false dilemmas that currently impede clear thinking and immobilise Europe’s policymakers.     

Bank loan terms and conditions for Eurozone SMEs

The evolution of bank loan price and non-price terms and conditions (T&Cs) for the 2009–2011 period are investigated using firm-level survey data for a sample of Eurozone small and medium-sized enterprises. The raw firm responses, which are of a discrete nature denoting tightening or easing of the T&Cs, or no change at all, are modeled by a bivariate ordered probit model. According to the results obtained, there are sizeable differences between countries, with the protagonists of the sovereign debt crisis (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain) exhibiting predicted probabilities of tightening that are considerably above the Eurozone average. In addition, price T&Cs exhibit a substantial tightening over time. Finally, firms’ net interest expenses and profitability emerge as important determinants in explaining the cross-sectional variation in bank loan T&Cs that they face.     

The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies

In this work, we provide an analysis over the period 1999–2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and GDP in a group of small Euro-area economies. The group includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In order to characterise the macroeconomic outcomes of movements in oil prices, we adopt the structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. We find that under the European Monetary Union (EMU), oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries. Moreover, an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation. Thus, although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries, our main conclusion is that despite the structural changes experienced by the European economies in the last decades, oil prices still matter for these countries. In the light of these results, we also stress some important challenges for the conduct of monetary policy in the Euro area.     

Fiscal rule compliance,poverty and social exclusion in the Eurozone

This paper develops a simple model of the effects of fiscal adjustments on poverty. Our theory suggests that in richer countries the effects of fiscal adjustment are stronger the more complex is the poverty measure. By examining a panel of 16 EU countries in the period 2005–2015, the paper finds that structural public balance adjustments may harm the welfare of poorer individuals. The empirical estimation hinges on a comprehensive index of poverty and social exclusion, the AROPE index. The results suggest that rigid fiscal rules require specific alternative policies to sustain the welfare of poorer individuals during downturns.     

Current Account Adjustment in the Eurozone: Lessons From a Flexible Price Model

This paper discusses the desired size of the internal devaluation in the Eurozone for a scenario of current account adjustment induced by shifts in relative demand. Based on Obstfeld and Rogoff, I develop a four‐region model of the world economy consisting of the Eurozone‐core, Eurozone‐periphery, United States and Asia. In contrast to most of the existing literature, this model structure enables studying the impact of global current account adjustment on the rebalancing process in the Eurozone. In addition, the model allows for movements of factors of production between tradable and non‐tradable sectors. The results point to the important impact of sectoral reallocation and increases in Asian demand on the size of the internal devaluation as well as on the implied length of the adjustment period.     

Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

Decoupling and Contagion: The Special Case of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis

This paper demonstrates that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis constitutes a special case in the contagion literature with general implications. Perfectly correlated bond markets imply that contagion can only occur if there is a decoupling to lower correlation levels with increased idiosyncratic shocks leading to more severe but less systemic spillovers. This theoretical prediction is fully supported by the empirical analysis. We also show that dynamic coexceedance estimates provide a more robust and more general picture of contagion than correlation‐based tests. Coexceedances identify only one major incidence of contagion that affected five periphery Eurozone countries in May 2010 and coincided with flight to quality from the periphery to the core and the 2010 “flash crash” in US equity markets.     

Toxische Wissenschaft? — Zur Verantwortung der Ökonomen für die gegenwärtige Krise

Die Welt durchlebt die tiefste Depression seit den 1930er Jahren. Wieso war die Wirtschaftswissenschaft so schlecht auf dieses Ereignis vorbereitet? Welche Verantwortung muss die akademische Profession übernehmen und welche Konsequenzen muss eine wissenschaftliche Disziplin tragen, die scheinbar so weit neben der Realit?t liegt wie der ?konomische Mainstream gegenw?rtig?     

Market Integration Without Policy Integration: A Comparison of the Shortcomings of Mercosur and the Eurozone

ABSTRACT

The major problem of Mercosur has been the lack of any policy coordination, which has resulted in periodic crises among member countries. It was thought that the Eurozone parts of the European Union represented a more mature institution, because member countries were willing to waive sovereignty over a major policy instrument (monetary policy), while maintaining independence over fiscal policy. The result of this, however, has led to even greater distortions than had there been no macroeconomic coordination at all.