The adjustment mechanism in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the adjustment mechanism in the euro area prior to the crisis. Results show that the real exchange rate adjusted to redress cyclical divergences and that after monetary unification, real exchange rate dynamics became less reactive to country-specific shocks but also less persistent. Regulations affecting price and wage nominal flexibility and employment protection play a role in the adjustment mechanism. Indicators of product and labour regulations appear to matter for both the reaction of price competitiveness to cyclical divergences and for the inertia of competitiveness indicators.     

The Nordic Model of Economic Development and Welfare: Recent Developments and Future Prospects

The stylised evidence from the Welfare State Sustainability (WSS) ratios points to a decrease in the future sustainability of public welfare spending in the Nordic countries.     

重庆两江新区:未来西部经济起飞的发动机

在重庆的规划中,两江新区发展的产业模式将实现5+3的战略性创新布局,即"壮大既有汽车摩托车、装备制造、电子信息、仪器仪表等优势产业,实施5+3战略性布局:轨道交通、电力装备、新能源汽车、国防军工、电子信息等五大战略性产业布局,以及国家级研发总部、重大科研成果转化基地、灾备及数据中心等三大战略性创新功能布局。"新"、"高"、"活"是两江新区产业定位的三大原则。     

Determinants of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area

Euro area inflation has been rising strongly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, giving rise to concerns that there could be second-round effects, with higher inflation leading to higher inflation expectations, which in turn lead to higher inflation. This could result in more persistent rises in inflation.

     

Reflections on the Euro Area Fiscal Stance

Avoiding the mistakes of the past, when the good times were not used to build buffers, will be crucial to avoid countries again being forced to engage in a pro-cyclical fiscal tightening in the next downturn.     

Preparations for the Euro by U.K. SMEs with Trading Links with the Euro Currency Area

This paper examines euro preparations by U.K. SMEs with trading links with the euro currency area. It suggests, notwithstanding the U.K.'s decision not to join the euro in the first wave, that SMEs with euro area trade links are particularly likely to have had to make some adjustments for the introduction of the euro. The paper assesses this level of preparation and seeks to understand if it is contingent upon the characteristics of the business, its geographic location, its business orientation and the type of trade link (e.g. importer/exporter). The paper finds, contrary to previous research, that business characteristics, geographic location and business orientation are, on the whole, of limited value in explaining euro preparation. What, instead, seems more significant is the type of link with the euro area: importers, exporters and those with subsidiary businesses in the euro area appear more likely to have made preparations for the euro than U.K. SMEs that are part of a euro supply-chain or are a subsidiary of a euro area business.     

Problems of measuring money supply in the Euro Area

With just a few weeks left to go before responsibility for monetary policy is transferred from the EMU member countries to the European Central Bank, there is still no standardised concept for measuring a euro area money supply which could serve as a statistical basis for a money-supply oriented monetary policy strategy. Which problems remain to be solved?     

The Transition to the Euro: Some Perspectives from Economic Psychology

The reactions of EU consumers to the arrival of the euro are likely to be far more complex than people's typical pragmatic and expedient adaptations to everyday economic change. This article discusses the major problems and psychological issues that are likely to arise in domains where the euro can be expected to have a major impact. More specifically, the domains considered include the following: the symbolic meanings of money; learning, remembering and information- processing; judgement and decision-making; expectations, concerns, and beliefs of EU citizens (consumers); and, propaganda, communication and attitude change. The article concludes with a number of tentative policy recommendations.     

中国经济增长原因初探

改革开放2 0多年来,中国经济增长异常迅速,中国的经济增长问题成为世界经济学界的热门话题,国内外学者的关于中国经济增长问题的综述,为我们提供了观察的视角,为我国经济的进一步稳定发展提供了很好的参考     

Inflation Developments in the Euro Area Since the Onset of the Pandemic

There is hope that the Russian war on Ukraine could expedite the energy transition in Europe leading to a new and more environmentally sustainable steady state.

     

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟。在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异。完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高。同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉。     

中国未来不同生育水平下的经济增长后果比较研究

对中国未来90年不同生育水平下的经济增长后果进行了人口-经济动态模拟.在生育水平过低导致劳动力减少过快、人口老龄化过重、劳动负担加重的情况下,将使经济增长大大放缓;而较高的生育水平下,虽然经济增长速度略快,但是人均GDP增长速度慢于中方案生育水平下的经济增长,并且人均GDP水平也具有较大差异.完善当前生育政策,使生育水平稳定在1.9-2.0之间,如此人口在本世纪缓慢地减少也将有利于我国的经济增长和人均生活水平的提高.同时,在低生育水平下,依靠劳动增加和资本积累的粗放型经济增长将不复存在,经济发展方式转变是必然选择,技术创新、技术进步将是未来经济增长首要源泉.     

2018年俄罗斯经济社会发展展望

2018年将是俄罗斯经济社会发展中极为关键的一年。在刚刚过去的一年中,俄罗斯经济在西方国家加大制裁的严峻背景下砥砺前行,出现了缓慢复苏。2018年俄罗斯经济社会面临全球经济风险带来的挑战、特朗普减税的负面效应、西方国家经济制裁的压力以及自身经济短板带来的风险。不过其发展也有诸多有利因素,包括中俄关系迎来新的发展机遇;俄罗斯具备较强抗风险能力;俄罗斯处理国际关系技巧高超。展望俄罗斯经济社会发展仍面临较严峻的形势,加大引进外国对俄直接投资和减少资本外流是最为关键的因素。受军事对抗和经济制裁等多重因素共同作用,2018年俄罗斯经济可能出现微弱增长,甚至重现负增长局面;社会形势基本可以保持稳定局面,但仍需继续改善民生和投资环境,扭转人口下降局面成为重要课题。     

Economic Prospects in Hungary: The Rise of The Private Sector

After introducing many market-oriented reforms during the 1980s, Hungary was in a good position to move rapidly towards a market-type economy after 1989. Because of trade shocks and restraint on domestic demand, Hungary suffered similar falls in output to other countries in eastern Europe. But it encouraged start-ups of new firms, welcomed foreign investment and undertook an active programme of privatisation. After some initial experience with uncontrolled privatisation, the State Property Agency was set up to supervise the process. At first it operated in a very centralised way, but more recently it has seen the need to operate in a decentralised manner. To manage those firms which will remain in state hands for some years, the State Assets Management Company was recently established. Overall, the combination of new start-ups and privatisation of state-owned firms is rapidly creating a more dynamic economy, which should soon start to grow out of the present recession.     

经济成长、金融结构变革与证券公司的未来发展

进入21世纪以来,中国经济的快速增长对经济生活的方方面面都产生了深刻的影响,也为中国资本市场带来了新的历史转折期和重要机遇期。作为资本市场上金融服务主要提供者的证券公司,迎来了新的发展机遇。然而在中国,什么样的证券公司能在激烈的竞争中发展壮大?什么样的证券公司拥有未来?本文认为,有三点至关重要:第一,对中国经济未来发展趋势和特点要有系统分析;第二,对中国金融结构的演变规律和方向要有准确把握;第三,要具有自身独特的核心竞争力。本文对这三个方面的内容进行系统研究,并提出了一些见解。     

External Asymmetries in the Euro Area and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment

Soon after the introduction of the common currency, a divide emerged between two groups in the Euro area: one comprised of the North European countries achieving external surpluses and the other of the South European countries with large external deficits. This paper shows that different patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows across the Euro area countries contributed to this divergence. Our theoretical framework shows that if the economy is relatively capital‐intensive in the production of traded (non‐traded) output, FDI will be channelled in greater proportions to the traded (non‐traded) sector, thus improving (deteriorating) the trade balance. Focusing on ten Euro area countries over the period 1980 to 2009, we establish a positive (negative) long‐run effect of FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South). In the North, the positive effect stems from the traded sector FDI inflows that were significantly higher in comparison with the South, both before and after the EMU. In contrast, in the South, the increased FDI inflows in the post‐EMU era were dominated by investments in the non‐traded sector. When industry‐level data are employed, a positive (negative) long‐run effect of manufacturing (non‐manufacturing) FDI inflows on the trade balance in the North (South) is further established.     

论当前我国经济运行中的"缩长病"及其医治

本文针对当前我国经济运行中存在的突出问题,提出了一个新的概念--"缩长".作者在分析和阐述"缩长病"及其主要"病灶"基础上,论证和说明了当前我国经济增长过度依赖扩张性财政政策支撑和物价的持续下降现象,并不是"流动性陷阱"所致,而是大调整过程尚未结束、宏观经济政策选择与操作未能依据经济现实做出相机抉择的结果.据此,作者提出,要医治"缩长病",不仅需要扩张性财政政策继续有所作为,而且需要更加积极的货币政策的有效配合.