The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short‐run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.     

The International Effects of China’s Growth,Trade and Education Booms

China’s international trade flows have increased by 500 per cent since 1992, far outstripping GDP growth. Likewise tertiary education enrolments have increased by 300 per cent. We simulate these changes using a multi‐sector growth model of the Chinese and USA economies. A decade of trade biased growth in China is found to raise USA GDP by approximately 3–4.5 percentage points and has a large impact on the demand for tertiary education in China. Despite these positive effects of growth, the results suggest that the expansion of China’s education sector per se has practically no long‐run impact on the USA economy.     

Designing EU–US Atlantic Monetary Relations: Exchange Rate Variability and Labour Markets

The variability of the euro seems to have a statistically significant and economically small, but non‐negligible, impact on labour markets in Euroland. Unemployment tends to increase and employment growth tends to fall whenever the effective exchange rate of the euro or the bilateral euro/dollar exchange rate becomes more variable. In the US a similar effect seems to be operating, but it is statistically less strong, especially concerning employment growth, which seems largely insulated from exchange rate variability. These results fit the general observation that US labour markets are more flexible and that the euro area is considerably more open than the US (exports of goods and services amount to close to 18 per cent of Euroland GDP versus only about 11 per cent for the US).     

Why India Lags Behind China and How It Can Bridge the Gap

Though India has been growing at six per cent annually since the late 1980s, it trails behind China, which has been growing at ten per cent per annum since 1981. The single most important factor explaining this difference is the relatively poor performance of Indian industry. Whereas the share of industry in China's GDP rose from 42 per cent in 1991 to 51 per cent in 2001, it remained virtually stagnant in India. By contrast, services grew rapidly in India, expanding from 42 per cent in 1991 to 48 per cent in 2001. With the information technology sector less than two per cent of the GDP, services growth was largely in the informal sector. Approximately 77 per cent of India's workers live in rural areas. To bring a large chunk of this workforce into the modern sector, India must achieve a much higher growth in the traditional, unskilled‐labour‐intensive industry. Growth in the information technology sector gives India an extra lever but cannot be the main engine of transformation. Therefore, the right approach is to walk on two legs: traditional labour‐intensive industry and the modern IT industry. Both legs need strengthening through further reforms. The paper suggests four specific reforms, three for industry and one for IT, necessary to achieve the transformation to a modern economy.     

Monetary policy in developing countries: lessons from Kenya

We estimate and then simulate a model of Kenyan economic development from 1965 to 1997 with two objectives in mind. The first is to demonstrate the degree of volatility of cyclical shocks that developing countries experience and to calculate the domestic nominal adjustments required by these shocks under both irrevocably fixed and free exchange rates.A comparison of these counterfactual nominal adjustments identifies the short-run implications for an economy of the choice of exchange rate regime. The second objective is to provide an estimate of the consequences for the economic development of Kenya of the lack of a coherent monetary order (excessive domestic credit expansion and overvalued exchange rate) throughout most of the period since 1965.A neoclassical convergence growth model based on Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) is employed and calibrated to represent the long-run growth path of real GDP in Kenya. A short-run four-sector CGE model is constructed that allows for cyclical movements of real GDP about the convergence growth path. The cyclical model focuses on the adjustment of the relative price of non-traded goods that is required to ensure short-run equilibrium in the non-traded goods sector. Given that terms of trade shocks dominated the macro environment of Kenya over the sample period, we find that a free exchange rate regime would have insulated the economy to a greater degree than an irrevocably fixed regime. In the growth decomposition exercise, we estimate that the two largest (and negative) influences on Kenyan economic growth were the decline in the external terms of trade from 100 in 1965 to an average of 79.5 over the 32-year time period, and the overvalued Kenyan shilling represented by a premium on the parallel market for foreign exchange. Overall, we estimate that the overvalued exchange rate reduced economic growth by an average of 0.47 per cent per annum over the 32 years.     

Productivity Versus Employment: Quantifying the Economic Effects of an EU–Japan Free Trade Agreement

The European Union and Japan recently entered into negotiations over a bilateral free trade agreement intended to stimulate growth and create wealth. Since customs duties are already low, the success of the liberalisation process hinges on the elimination of non‐tariff barriers. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on two possible liberalisation scenarios: a less ambitious liberalisation and a comprehensive liberalisation. In contrast to classic studies, our paper builds on the modern trade literature, accounting for the dominance of intra‐industry trade in both economies and the existence of heterogeneous firms. Furthermore, we model a search‐and‐matching labour market, allowing us to quantify employment effects of trade liberalisation. We find that a comprehensive liberalisation increases Japanese GDP by 0.86 per cent, whereas the EU experiences only an additional 0.21 per cent of real GDP growth. Most of the growth in real GDP is due to firms' efficiency gains, whereas unemployment is reduced by only a small amount. Other world regions experience small reductions of GDP due to trade diversion effects.     

Five Major New Goals in 1 lth Five-Year Plan, Per Capita GDP Double

On the new goals in the 11th Five-Year Plan as average annual GDP growth rate of 7.5%,double the per capita GDP tan 2000,new incrase of usban employment and transfer of rural laor reaches 4.5 million respectively.     

Science and Technology Take-off in China?: Sources of Rising R&D Intensity

China's ratio of research and development (R&D) spending to its gross domestic product (GDP) more than doubled from 0.6 per cent in 1996 to 1.4 per cent in 2005. This study documents the pattern of science and technology (S & T) take-off, characterized by an abrupt increase in the R&D to GDP ratio. This abrupt increase, observed in many of the now Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, typically drives R&D intensity from below 1 per cent to the range of 2–3 per cent. The question addressed in this work is whether China has begun a similar S & T take-off. The study reviews several conditions identified in the endogenous growth literature that drives R&D intensification and notes their emergence in China during the past decade. It also speculates why China's R&D intensification appears to be starting at such a low level of income per capita.     

External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surrounding macroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady‐state priors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variance decomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most important factors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 per cent of the variance in Colombian GDP growth respectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out‐of‐sample, can also be used to analyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we show that the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growth would be non‐negligible but that the decline still would be mild by historical standards.     

中国股市、银行与经济增长

通过利用经济增长指标、股市指标和金融发展水平指标,对中国股市、银行业和宏观经济数据进行实证研究发现:我国银行业发展水平和贷款率指标,对于人均实际的GDP增长具有一定的正向推动关系,而且成交额比率与人均实际GDP的增长和储蓄存款存在着反向作用。从而得出的结论是,我国银行业的发展水平对宏观经济的影响要远远强于股市的影响作用。     

China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?1

China is criticised for keeping its dollar exchange rate fairly stable when it has a large trade (saving) surplus. This criticism is misplaced in two ways. First, no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. Second, since 1995, the stable yuan/dollar rate has anchored China’s price level and facilitated counter cyclical fiscal policies that have smoothed its high real GDP growth at a remarkable 9 to 11 per cent per year. With its now greater GDP, China displaces Japan as the largest economy in East Asia – but with a much stronger stabilising influence on East Asian neighbours from its higher economic growth and more stable dollar exchange rate. Now, an ever larger China is an essential stabiliser for the world economy – as exemplified by its prompt and effective fiscal response to the global credit crunch of 2008–09. However, cumulating financial distortions – in China and the United States – threaten to undermine China’s growth and its stabilising influence on the rest of the world.     

Determinants of advertising expenditures: aggregate and cross-media evidence

Advertising expenditures account for 1 per cent of developed country GDP, having grown at an average real rate of 5 per cent p.a. over the 1980s. Trends in New Zealand have been similar to trends overseas. Hence analysis of the determinants of advertising in New Zealand should assist understanding of the determinants of advertising expenditures in other developed countries. We discuss changes in NZ's advertising industry and use a multi-equation co-integration framework to model the determinants of NZ advertising expenditure, both in total and across different media. We find that expenditure on advertising in all media is strongly pro-cyclical, that the allocation of expenditures depends on circulation patterns, and that press and magazines are complementary media and are substitutes for TV advertising.     

振兴东北前后哈尔滨市下辖县经济发展差异分析

选取人口、GDP与人均GDP三个指标,运用标准差(S)、变异系数(V)、泰尔指数(T)对振兴东北前后哈尔滨市下辖县市的经济发展差异进行定量分析,认为振兴东北前(2000年—2002年)哈尔滨市下辖县间经济差异呈扩大趋势,振兴东北后(2003年—2005年)差异呈缩小趋势。以GDP平均增长率与人均GDP平均值为指标,分析振兴东北前后经济发展差异类型的变化,认为振兴东北后发达高增长型与欠发达低增长型的县减少,而欠发达高增长型与发达低增长型的县增多。     

和谐社会的经济标准

本文认为,和谐社会的经济标准必须从效率和公平两个方面来考虑,具体可分解为人均GDP、经济增长率、恩格尔系数、失业率、人均周工作时间、行业集中度、劳动力流动成本、负外部性、吉尼系数、歧视指数、贫困人口比例和通货膨胀率等12个指标。文章提出,我国建立和谐社会的重点,应该放在提高人均GDP、收入的合理分配、反贫困、环境治理和保护、减少生产要素在行业以及地区间的流动障碍等方面。     

Financial repression and debt liquidation in the USA and the euro area

Rising debt levels have caused a revival of financial repression in the euro area and the USA. The Federal Reserve directly represses US bond yields and assists in financing the state budget, resulting in an overall liquidation effect from falling bond yields of about three per cent of total government revenues and one per cent of GDP in 2011. In the euro area, the ongoing actions to contain the European debt crisis have also repressed interest rates, easing debt-servicing costs in all European countries and reducing the interest rate payments for the German government by about one to two per cent of total government revenues. This article argues that a slight rise in infl ation could even liquidate German debt.     

Trade Policy Issues in a Small African Economy: The Trade Policy Review of The Gambia 2004

The Gambia displays many of the classic characteristics of a small open economy, with the vulnerabilities that implies. The sum of its imports and exports are around 100 per cent of GDP, with a limited number of export commodities and a wide variety of imports, including some key staple foods. The Trade Policy Review of The Gambia 2004 provides a very helpful review and assessment of current trade patterns and policies. The latter rely predominantly on import and export taxes. While quite substantial trade reform measures have been implemented recently, these have led to only a very small reduction in the average tariff rate, and trade policy displays a substantial anti‐export bias. Other important issues highlighted by the Trade Policy Review include serious capacity constraints relating to trade policy, and a failure to discuss connections between trade policy and growth and poverty reduction – again common characteristics of many small economies.     

Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative

In this paper I develop a model to investigate the connection between debt relief and current account sustainability. This model can be used as a key input in assessing whether a HIPC country's real exchange rate is ‘overvalued,’ and will thus need to go through devaluation. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest external debt to GDP ratios: almost 300 per cent. Nicaragua is the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere (after Haiti), and for the last decade has relied very heavily on foreign assistance and aid. Moreover, in the last few years Nicaragua has run extremely large current account deficits in excess of 37 per cent of GDP during 1997‐2001 largely financed by grants, donations and migrant remittances.     

How Income and Crowding Effects Influence the World Market for French Wines

Wine prices rose rapidly between 2001 and 2011 but have now stagnated. The growth phase could be explained by the increased demand from emerging markets, while the subsequent stagnation may result from the crowding effect caused by the entry of numerous new varieties onto the wine market. The generalised model of ideal variety proposed by Hummels and Lugovskyy combines these two elements, and focusing on French exporters, we find partial support for this explanation at the world level. A 1 per cent increase in GDP per capita (income effect) generated an increase in price of 1.13 per cent between 2001 and 2011. In contrast, a 1 per cent increase in market size (competition effect) reduced prices by 1.10 per cent over the same period. This paper goes further into the analysis of these effects by considering wine exports according to the mode of transport used and indirectly evaluates economies of scale when wine is exported by land, sea or air (via a gravity equation). Economies of scale are observed for transport by plane and ship but not for road. A 10 per cent increase in the value of wine exported by road (plane) leads to a rise (reduction) in transport costs of 0.5 per cent (19 per cent).     

员工组织承诺水平变迁的横断历史元分析：2004~2014

为考察我国企业员工组织承诺水平随年代变迁的趋势特点及其社会影响因素，运用横断历史元分析方法，文章对2004~2014年间采用Allen和Meyer等人“组织承诺量表”的174篇研究报告共61266名企业员工进行分析。结果发现：（1）员工的情感承诺和规范承诺均值与年代正相关显著，持续承诺均值与年代相关不显著。（2）11年间员工情感承诺和规范承诺水平逐渐上升，金融危机后情感承诺水平上升显著。（3）5年前及当年的城镇化率、人均GDP和高校毕业生数量与情感承诺正相关显著，当年的CPI、GDP增长率和城镇失业率与之负相关显著；5年前的CPI、城镇化率、人均GDP、城镇失业率和高校毕业生数量与规范承诺正相关显著，当年的城镇化率、人均GDP与之正相关显著，GDP增长率与之负相关显著；当年的GDP增长率与持续承诺负相关显著。结果表明上述指标是影响员工组织承诺的重要社会因素。     

Impact of Trade on Canada's Employment,Skill and Wage Structure

Using newly constructed data for 88 Canadian industries (including primary, manufacturing and services), for 15 years (1992–2007), we analyse the impact of trade and technological change on labour demand, skill structure, wage premiums and welfare in Canada. Results show that export growth has no impact, whereas import growth reduces employment growth. But contrary to popular belief, Canada's job loss due to imports has been very small, only about 6,000 persons annually. China's negative impacts are more pronounced in industries where the share of information and communication technology (ICT) capital is rising fast and among low R&D intensive industries. In terms of skill change, ICT use and real exchange rate appreciation are biased towards high skill workers. Imports from the United States and China are skill‐neutral, whereas imports from Mexico are skill‐upgrading. Overall, neither export nor import growth has an impact on the wage rate. However, had there been no imports from China, the annual wage growth rate of high skill manufacturing workers would have been 0.6 per cent higher. Between 1992 and 2007, there was an annual net gain from the rise in imports at about 0.4 per cent of GDP, in addition to the gains obtained from 1992 import levels vis‐à‐vis autarky.