Perspektiven zum Bürgergeld

Wirtschaftsdienst - The Hartz IV labour market reform in 2005 triggered a substantial reduction in unemployment in Germany. At the same time, it reduced social welfare for the long-term unemployed...     

Folgen der Hartz-Reformen für die Beschäftigung

After the Hartz reforms of 2003–2005, unemployment in Germany has gone down significantly. Using a structural evaluation, it is shown that the contribution of the Hartz IV reform to this decrease was extremely modest. Hartz IV explains less than 0.1 percentage point of the decline in the observed unemployment rate. A substantial degree of influence, to the contrary, is attributed to the preceding Hartz III reform. Thus, the reduction of unemployment compensation could have been generally avoided.     

Hartz IV: The Solution to the Unemployment Problems in the Eurozone?

The Hartz IV reforms are consistently regarded as a successful German model for the reduction of structural unemployment. Is it therefore appropriate to advise other member states of the European monetary union to carry out similar reforms? This paper strongly disagrees, arguing that the reduction in unemployment in Germany since 2005 is mainly due to cyclical factors and to the petering out of the negative employment effects caused by the economic transformation after German unification.     

Structural Reforms and Labour‐market Outcomes: International Panel‐data Evidence

This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro‐level labour‐market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labour force participation rates. Together, these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labour market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, to our knowledge, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross‐country macro‐level on labour‐market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labour‐market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country's structural reform year, we run fixed‐effects ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labour‐market outcomes. Overall, the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labour. Redistributive effects in favour of workers, along the lines of the Stolper‐Samuelson effect, may be at work.     

Something unforeseeable happened? Natural rate theory and economic crisis

“Natural rate theory” — the application of the efficient market hypothesis to labour markets — has guided economic policy since the 1970s and laid the foundations for the design of major European institutions in the 1990s. Unfettered markets were declared to be stable, and consequently public policies and regulations were regarded as distortions. This led to a division of labour in which central banks were responsible only for price stability, governments for labour market reforms and unions for low wages. The European discussion focused almost exclusively on labour market reforms to reduce unemployment. Against the background of the recent dramatic drop in economic activity, this paper confronts natural rate theory with actual economic trends and argues that the predictions of the theory hardly fit the facts.     

Aus Hartz IV wird Bürgergeld — nur alter Wein in neuen Schläuchen?

In this article, we discuss reform elements of “Hartz IV”. This includes, on the one hand, merging unemployment benefits with housing benefits and the additional child benefits (Kinderzuschlag) and, on the other hand, reducing disincentives which prevent the recipients from earning higher incomes. Employment incentives can be improved if the effective marginal transfer withdrawal rate is reduced and, at the same time, the preferential treatment of “mini jobs” is reduced. In addition, the eligibility criteria should be simplified. This could reduce the rate of non-takeup and thus hidden poverty. One criticism of such a reform of Hartz IV is that it would increase the number of transfer recipients. However, this is not an economically sensible outcome in a reform effort. What is important is the disposable income of transfer recipients affected and that the design of the transfer withdrawal does not create lock-in effects.

     

Hartz IV: die Lösung für die Probleme in der Währungsunion?

The Hartz reforms are often regarded as the therapy which turned the so called “sick man of Europe” into a global superstar. But this diagnosis was wrong. The strength of the German economy was overshadowed by the negative effects of reunification. The decline in unemployment can partly be attributed to the end of the transformation in East Germany. It also reflects the negative cyclical situation in 2005. This analysis is in line with the finding that compared e.g. with Italy and Greece, German unemployment assistance is still very generous. Thus, for the member states of the Eurozone Hartz IV is not a promising strategy. This could be different should wage moderation be cosnidered. However, if member states practice it simultaneously, this will lead to deflation. This calls for higher wage increases in Germany and a more symmetric adjustment.     

EMU and Labour Market Reform: Needs,Incentives and Realisations

Despite improving labour market conditions in recent years, a number of EMU countries still suffer from high and persistent unemployment. It could therefore be expected that labour market reform would be given a prominent position on the political agenda. The new constraints associated with the common monetary policy only increase the pressure for reform. Relying on the introduction of the single currency as a trigger for labour market reform may be a risky strategy. EMU generates a complex set of re‐optimising strategies of the players on the labour market, which makes it difficult to get a clear idea what impact it will have on labour market reform. Evaluation of recent reform measures does not make one confident either. The empirical analysis confirms to some extent the idea that countries with higher unemployment rates have carried out more labour market reform. This finding holds, however, only for countries that do not belong to EMU. EMU countries have on average carried out no more reform than countries outside EMU and any link between the initial unemployment level and the labour market reform indicators seems to lack. It may become apparent that more reform is needed once the macroeconomic environment becomes more unfavourable.     

Trade Unions and the National Training Reform Agenda in Australia, 1983—1996

From its election in 1983 to its defeat in 1996, the Labor Government in Australia initiated major reforms to the vocational education and training (VET) system. Here the author examines these reforms from the perspective of ‘skilled-oriented unionism’—a strategy explicitly followed by unions in Australia. While much progress was achieved, particularly at national and industry levels, enterprise-based reform lagged behind, reflecting the relative strengths and weaknesses of union organisation. In addition, union conflict and uncertainty over the appropriate labour market orientation for VET adversely affected the reform agenda.     

Ökonomische Wurzeln des Populismus

Increasing populism in developed Western countries such as Germany can be traced to various causes, including economic ones. In these countries, advancing globalisation and technological progress lead to labour market and income effects that have had a negative impact on certain groups of people (wage reduction, increase in the risk of unemployment). The fear of such developments — whether justified or unfounded — results in the desire for political decisions that push back the catalysts of these economic developments. Therefore, international trade with low-wage countries and labour saving technological progress in particular often breed populist parties.     

Can labour market institutions mitigate the China syndrome? Evidence from regional labour markets in Europe

This paper investigates how labour market regulations alter the adverse impact of rising import competition from China in European local labour markets between 1997 and 2006. The paper constructs measures of regional exposure to Chinese imports based on previous literature and on regional labour market frictions exploiting involuntary labour reallocations. Taking into account the endogeneity of import competition and its interaction with labour market regulations, the paper finds that regions more exposed to the rise of China have suffered from a reduction in manufacturing employment shares. This shock grows larger with regional labour market frictions; hence, it exacerbates the impact of trade shock on employment. Moreover, the paper finds that employment in public services, and not in construction or private services sector, absorbed the negative shock to the manufacturing sector. The unemployment rate, the labour force participation rate and wages in all sectors are unresponsive to import competition from China.     

Opening of China's Trade,Labour Market Reform and Impact on Rural Wages

Government policy in China supports urban wages at the expense of returns to farm labour. A model is developed to estimate how WTO accession and complementary labour market reform will influence factor returns in China. With WTO membership, a larger cut in manufacturing tariffs compared to agriculture will improve agriculture's terms of trade and will raise the agricultural wage. Complementary labour market reforms will further boost farm wages as labour exits agriculture in large numbers. We estimate that WTO membership and complementary labour market reforms will result in a decline in the agricultural labour force by about 25 per cent.     

HIRING STANDARDS AND LABOUR MARKET CLEARING

Consider a labour market with heterogeneous workers. When recruiting workers, firms set a hiring standard and make a wage offer. A more demanding hiring standard necessitates a better wage offer in order to attract enough qualified applicants. As a result, an efficiency wage effect is obtained. An equilibrium emerges which does not clear the labour market. The wage level depends on structural characteristics of labour supply, such as heterogeneity and mobility of the workers, but—in contrast to other efficiency‐wage models—not on the level of unemployment and is, thus, compatible with increasing unemployment as observed, e.g. in Germany.     

Supply-side strategic unemployment in small business

In this paper, the model which will be analysed is characterized by a labour market with (a) profitable vacancies, (b) unemployment, (c) excess labour supply, (d) limited mobility and divisibility of labour, and (e) competition on-the-job. The analysed setting is typical for a small-business economy. The analysis suggests that unemployment will be greater than equilibrium unemployment if present employees and potential entrants consider job assignments for this market under strategic perspectives.     

Unemployment governance,labour cost and earnings management: Evidence from China

This study investigates the effect of labour cost on earnings management based on the panel data of listed firms in China. We use the average wage of employees in firm level as the proxy for labour cost. Firms with rising labour cost become more likely to engage in negative earnings management to conceal profits or report losses. The effect becomes more significant in state-owned enterprises, labour-intensive enterprises, firms in high unemployment-rate regions and firms with political connections. Further research finds that, under the institutional background of Chinese unemployment governance, firms get more government subsidies and tax preferences and reduce the excessive employment through negative earnings management. To a certain extent, this weakens the policy effect of unemployment governance. Overall, our conclusions are meaningful to the reform of unemployment governance, the standardisation of earnings management behaviour, the improvement of the government subsidy policies and the improvement of the efficiency of public resource allocation.     

Germany’s stake in exchange rate stability

The position taken by politicians and important pressure groups in Germany concerning EMU will depend to a large extent on its labour market implications—and thus on the (perceived) impact of exchange rate variability on employment and unemployment. Most economists would assume this impact to be minor. The purpose of this paper is to show that this presumption might be wrong.     

Unionized Labour Market,Unemployment Allowances,Productive Public Expenditure And Endogenous Growth

An endogenous growth model with unionised labour market is developed to analyse the interaction between the tax financed productive public expenditure policy and the unemployment benefit policy. We consider both ‘Efficient Bargaining’ model and ‘Right to Manage’ model; and analyse properties of balanced growth rate maximising income tax policy as well as effects of unionisation. This growth rate maximising income tax rate exceeds the competitive output share of the public input in the presence of an unemployment benefit scheme. The growth effect of unionisation in the ‘Efficient Bargaining’ model and in the ‘Right to Manage’ model are different.     

The globalization of business in Latin America

New trade and exchange strategies, economic integration, political reforms, and privatization are driving Latin American firms to expand operations both within and outside the area. Additionally, multinational firms have stepped up operations, entered sectors previously dominated by state-owned enterprises, and restructured their management. Vast projects are upgrading transport, seaports, and airports. Communications and emerging patterns in consumer life styles are redefining markets. Sweeping change, plus the challenge of becoming internationally competitive, has burgeoned management training needs for both the business and public sectors. Yet in some countries the prospects for continued reform could be reversed by hardening social tensions and voter skepticism that free market policies will effectively reduce poverty and persistent unemployment.     

MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION AND SEARCH UNEMPLOYMENT

In this paper the monopolistic competition model of Dixit and Stiglitz for the goods market and the search unemployment model of Pissarides are combined. The Pissarides part loses its Walrasian goods market and the Dixit–Stiglitz part loses its Walrasian labour market. Pissarides’ results now depend on the degree of competition. In the Dixit–Stiglitz part the size and number of firms as well as aggregate output now depend on aggregate hiring costs, tightness and unemployment, while real wages are not fixed. Some partial results of comparative static properties of the original models survive. New results concerning the effects of changes in labour (goods) market parameters on goods markets (the labour market) variables are obtained and related to the literature on macroeconomic theory with endogenous unemployment and imperfect competition, empirical results and policy issues.     

Entrepreneurial Women and Men: Two Different Species?

The ability of the self-employed to create additional job opportunities is a fundamental concern given the huge increases in public resources targeted at new venture creation in the U.K. and other countries since 1979. This study initially concentrates on identifying differences in the personal and demographic characteristics of women and men in four potential labour market states, namely; unemployment; waged employment; single self-employment, and; job creating self-employment. It then goes on to consider labour market transitions over a four year period between 1991 and 1995. The key findings are firstly that women entrepreneurs are better educated than their male counterparts and secondly that flows into self-employment were considerably higher for men than women. Furthermore, proportionately, three times as many male self-employed in 1991 had gone on to become job creating self-employed by 1995.