The Effects of Inflation and Taxes on the Costs of Home Ownership

This article assesses the impact of inflation on the true economic costs of owning a home. Using the assumption that most pre-tax housing costs are roughly proportionate to house value, it is shown that inflation cuts housing costs substantially for homeowners with mortgages because capital gains income from house price inflation is untaxed but mortgage interest payments are fully deductible. The distribution of tax savings are estimated with national data and it is found that roughly half of all benefits go to families in the top one seventh of the income distribution.     

新传染病对老龄健康的影响

21世纪人类社会经历着人口老龄化和传染病威胁的双重考验.研究新传染病有助于个人、家庭和社会对新传染病的特点、传播方式和对老龄健康危害的认识.介绍了新传染病的定义、类型和特点,分别以SARS和HIV为例说明了新传染病对老龄健康的影响,提出了应建立有利于老龄健康的社会预警和应急系统.     

新传染病对老龄健康的影响

21世纪人类社会经历着人口老龄化和传染病威胁的双重考验.研究新传染病有助于个人、家庭和社会对新传染病的特点、传播方式和对老龄健康危害的认识.介绍了新传染病的定义、类型和特点,分别以SARS和HIV为例说明了新传染病对老龄健康的影响,提出了应建立有利于老龄健康的社会预警和应急系统.     

汇率水平与汇率波动对通货膨胀的影响研究

运用EGARCH模型求出人民币汇率波动的量度,在VAR模型的基础上,通过协整检验并主要运用脉冲响应等方法进行实证分析,结果发现:人民币升值主要是通过降低进口中间产品的价格来抑制通货膨胀,汇率变动的支出转换效应在中国并不显著,用人民币升值来抑制通货膨胀,效果有限;扩大人民币汇率波动区间有利于抑制通货膨胀;通货膨胀预期对通货膨胀具有显著的正向影响。     

The Changing Dynamics of Inflation

Inflation in the United States and elsewhere has become lower and more stable over the past two decades. It is likely that monetary policy has played an important role in this change in inflation dynamics by creating expectations of stability. This paper traces the evolution of the role of expectations in thinking about inflation, the supporting evidence over the past two decades, and role of central banks in influencing expectations. Increased global integration has magnified these effects. However, the importance of factors other than monetary policy implies that policymakers must consider a wide range of information before acting. Moreover, expectations of inflation stability cannot be taken for granted; and policymakers must be vigilant against complacency. JEL Classification E31, E58     

对目前通货膨胀现象的理论分析

本文通过对哈耶克有关文献的梳理,着重指出目前的通货膨胀是一种＂凯恩斯的通货膨胀＂,进而从理论上指出：凯恩斯通货膨胀是一种＂人为＂性质的通货膨胀,是一种忽视生产过程和结构的通货膨胀,是一种在经济和政治层面上将造成危害的通货膨胀。在国内外通货膨胀已存蔓延之势的情形下,批判凯恩斯通货膨胀将为中国制止通货膨胀从心理、政治和现实三个方面提供思想资源。     

我国综合性通货膨胀的预期与治理

本文以市场经济下的货币流通理论为指导,构建了我国自改革开放以来的通货膨胀模型,并采用计量经济学的一系列方法对模型进行了检验,实证结果表明:通货膨胀与消费、投资、财政赤字和制度转型等多个变量之间存在协整关系,但各变量对通货膨胀的贡献度具有明显差异,这为中央银行和政府部门采取差别性的宏观调控政策提供了有力依据。     

美联储货币政策对中国通货膨胀溢出效应的再审视

本文基于结构突变的非线性视角,采用2001年1月至2014年12月的月度数据,就美联储货币政策转向对我国通货膨胀溢出效应进行重新研究与审视.研究发现:(1)样本期内美联储货币政策的转向对我国通货膨胀确实存在且只存在一次结构突变的非线性溢出效应,这种效应发生时点并非传统文献认为的量化宽松货币政策实施时刻(2009年3月),而是滞后14个月的2010年5月;(2)美联储货币政策对我国通货膨胀的驱动因素也随着非线性结构突变的发生而出现了逆转,由2010年5月结构突变前的价格型变量“利率”为主导,转变为以数量型变量“货币供给”为主导的非常规货币政策溢出效应;(3)美联储量化宽松货币政策释放出的美元流动性泛滥会迅速通过国际贸易渠道、资本流动渠道和汇率渠道对我国物价指数产生直接或间接影响,助推我国通货膨胀指数在该阶段的快速上涨,呈现出典型的外部输入型特征.     

通货膨胀对传统历史成本会计的影响

通货膨胀已成为现代经济发展过程中不可避免的现象。在通货膨胀发生时,采用传统历史成本会计模式,既不能保证会计信息的真实可靠,也不能使货币和实物资本得到维护,无法维持生产经营能力。通过揭示通货膨胀给历史成本会计带来的影响,找出历史成本会计在通货膨胀环境下的种种缺陷,采用局部调整或全面调整的手段消除通胀的影响,可使会计信息的真实、相关得到保证。     

当前通货膨胀治理的长期性和复杂性

自2007年以来,我国居民消费价格总水平发生了比较明显的上涨,前些年需求拉动的结构型通货膨胀逐渐发展为成本推进的总量型通货膨胀。中国经济发展的特殊要求使我国在应对通货膨胀时面临两难困境。从需求方面看,影响我国价格总水平上涨的因素主要表现在固定资产投资仍然增长过快,银行流动性过剩和国际收支平衡等方面。从供给方面看,需求拉动的通货膨胀导致商品和生产要素价格变动,进而导致国民经济成本结构的变化,并逐渐转化为成本推进的总量型通货膨胀。另外,市场背景、增长背景和发展背景的长期变化所导致的生产成本的周期性变化也可能从供给方面加剧成本推进型通货膨胀。考虑到当前通货膨胀的长期性和复杂性,我国在治理通货膨胀中应重视固定资产投资适度增长问题和收入分配结构问题,渐进地推进能源等关键商品的市场化改革,为中国的可持续发展创造条件。     

通货膨胀对低收入群体的影响

通货膨胀对低收入群体造成的影响是财富水平被更多地稀释、利益分配更为不利、基本生活更为窘迫。富人和低收入人群的财富水平不仅表现在数量上的悬殊,同时也表现在结构上的差异。通货膨胀对高收入群体的影响,主要是货币贬值、购买力下降,不会对其生存构成威胁。但对低收入群体等弱势群体来说,通货膨胀无疑切断了他们生存的脉搏,生活的希望。     

The Effects of Economic Integration and Political Instability in Central America

We use stochastic frontier analysis to study the effects of political instability events and economic integration on technical efficiency. A set of industries in Central America are analyzed during a period of perceived lack of regional economic integration (1980s) and a period of renewed economic integration (early 1990s). Results show that economic integration has had a negative effect on technical efficiency during this period. The effect from political instability depends on the type of event, both at the industry and national level.     

Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms on SMEs’ Investment Decisions under the Particular Consideration of Inflation

Corporate tax reforms carried out in EU countries since 1980 entail lower statutory tax rates and reductions in generous tax depreciation provisions. Several countries including the UK have reduced tax rates for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). This study compares incentive effects of such reforms on the SMEs’ investment decisions adopting a simple present value model. Ceteris paribus, tax rates and depreciation rules vary in the model simulation, while the application of historical cost accounting method in inflationary phases leads to fictitious increases in nominal net present value. Apart from the construction of international ranking, country-specific patterns of reform effects are also illustrated. This paper was presented at the 61st Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) held in Jeju Island, Korea in 2005. The authors are grateful to discussants and participants at the conference. Special thanks to two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Responsibility for errors remains the authors’.     

The Great Inflation: Inflation,Inflationary Expectations,and the Phillips Cycle 1960–2002

Business Economics - Given the ongoing concern with controlling inflation, it is timely to take another look at the “Great Inflation” of 1966-1983 and to try to understand the process...     

国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀的影响——基于VAR的经验证据

文章的定性分析表明,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,而VAR经验分析表明,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的结论,这种影响在25%的显著性水平上,即使在滞后12期之后,也至多是微弱的.     

论中国通货膨胀下的货币政策有效性

在当今社会经济通货膨胀的状态下,中央银行首先应做的就是通过制定的货币政策抑制通货膨胀。本文通过对通货膨胀的现状及原因的分析,从而进一步探究中央银行制定的货币政策种类及其效应的积极性和局限性。     

当前通货膨胀下的货币政策选择

在当前通货膨胀压力下,中央银行利用公开市场业务、准备金率政策和窗口指导等措施进行紧缩,但并没有达到预期的效果.对于目前通货膨胀压力下的宏观经济政策研究,既要借鉴以往的治理经验,又要明确此次由投资过度引发的通货膨胀压力与以往的通货膨胀在成因和治理手段上都应有所不同,在相应的宏观经济政策制定和实施上都要有严格的针对性.     

通货膨胀中的地方政府金融行为分析

本文针对中国转型以来出现的宏观经济波动现象,结合传统的体制惯性效应及现存体制中政府的角色,建构了一个关于利益博弈型的通货膨胀模型来对地方政府的金融博弈行为进行分析.分析表明,现行政绩考核制度的诱致造成地方政府有更大的积极性对区域内的商业银行进行控制,以扩大本地区的投资规模,争夺更多的金融资源,而不会主动顾及其政策的溢出效应.地方政府之间的这种金融行为最终会导致全社会的经济运行维持在通货膨胀的X-无效率解点上.要走出这一博弈困境和避免通货膨胀周期性波动,不仅须依靠宏观调控,还须进一步深化体制改革和加快建立以市场化为主导的.投融资体制,在确保商业银行业务独立性的同时,更要以法律约束地方政府的金融行为.     

Political Rivalry Effects on Human Capital Accumulation and Inequality: A New Political Economy Approach

We propose an endogenous growth model with new political economy elements in order to (1) examine how political incentives affect economic allocations and (2) study the effects of political rivalry on human capital accumulation and income inequality. Focusing on two important policies affecting economic performance—fiscal policy and public investments in human capital accumulation—we find that different political incentives have distinct effects on policies and economic allocations. We also find that political rivalry increases income inequality and reduces economic growth and human capital accumulation through its negative impact on public investments in education, wages and individual learning choice.