German trade performance in times of slumping euro area markets

While the global financial crisis had a strong impact on economic activity in Germany, the impact of the euro area crisis on economic activity in Germany has so far been relatively mild. Trade flows by region reveal that German firms have recently redirected their exports towards the remaining growth spots of the world economy, in particular to Asia??s emerging economies. However, a continued crisis in the euro area is likely to put a considerable dent in German exports. While market forces have already triggered the rebalancing of intra-European trade flows, German exporters may play a helpful role in this process if firms in distressed countries circumvent high entry costs by integrating themselves into the global value chains of German exporters.     

Cuba,the centrally planned cigar,and its rivals

Cuba has a long‐standing reputation for producing premium cigars. Despite the inefficiencies of central planning, Cuba continues to command a dominant global market share in this product outside the United States, whose trade embargo forbids Cuban imports. Cuba's main rivals in premium cigars include the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Honduras, which dominate the US market but have a smaller presence elsewhere. All premium cigar exporters face important global demographic and policy changes that will alter the competitive landscape. Public anti‐smoking measures have diminished cigar demand in Europe and other industrialised areas, reinforcing a market growth shift towards emerging markets, especially China. Cuba's strengths in branding, reputation and third‐world ties give it an advantage in developing the high end of these new markets. However, the rigidities of Cuba's economic system make it difficult to increase or adjust premium cigar output and exports in response to new market opportunities. Cost‐efficient competition from its Caribbean rivals allows them to respond to consumer preferences for new cigar blends and lower‐priced brands. The paper concludes by assessing the need for economic reforms and foreign investment in Cuban cigar production that will be necessary for it to maintain or improve its export performance.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

A dynamic analysis of the impacts of export taxes: The case of Argentinean soy and beef markets

Argentina plays an important role in the global soy market as one of the world's leading exporters of soy products. In an effort to shift its agricultural sector's focus to value‐added exports and to raise revenue, Argentina's government has maintained a regime of differential export taxes on soy products. In addition to soy products, Argentina is a major producer, consumer and exporter of beef. However, over the last decade it has relinquished much of its world market share as its beef exports have fallen because the government has periodically imposed a ban on exports of beef along with maintaining an export tax. As the soy and livestock sectors are inextricably linked, owing to both industries’ intensive land use and the utilisation of soymeal as a feed supplement for cattle, trade policies in one sector have pronounced cross‐sectoral impacts. This study develops a theoretical model of these different sectors and trade policies, incorporating the dynamic decisions of cattle stock management. The model is calibrated to real‐world data on the Argentinean economy, and the impacts of trade liberalisation are quantified. Key results show modelling the various intersectoral linkages and the dynamic implications of cattle stock is essential for obtaining accurate estimates.     

“包”打天下

2011年1—7月，中国箱包加工贸易出口合同额增长有所放缓，除2月、6月实现同比增长外，其余各月同比均为负增长。其中，4月加工贸易签单额创下最低值。当月出口订单仅为1．21亿美元，比去年同期下降了60．51％。6月创下7个月来的最高值，实现了2．18亿美元的合同签约量，同比增长14．58％。     

重创后的复苏——世界贸易2009年回顾及2010年展望

根据世界贸易组织(WTO)秘书处最近公布的世界贸易报告概要,由于受世界金融危机和经济衰退的影响,2009年,世界贸易总量经历了70多年来最大的下降,实际降幅达到12.2%,名义降幅则更是高达23%。而2010年世界贸易则有望实际增长9.5%,其中,发达国家的商品出口可能增长7.5%,发展中国家可能增长11%。2009年,中国商品出口尽管也遭遇-16%挫折,但首次取代德国成为世界最大出口国,而进口则独一无二地没有下降,甚至实际上还有小幅增长,中国在世界商品和商业服务的进出口地位均有所上升。不过,世界贸易要真正实现恢复性增长,不仅有赖于世界经济的恢复性增长,还需要借助于WTO多边贸易体制有效抵制贸易保护主义的压力。     

危机“余孽未消”,贸易增长将放缓——世界贸易2010年回顾及2011年展望

根据世界贸易组织(WTO)秘书处最近公布的世界贸易报告概要,世界贸易在经历了2009年高达12.2%的实际降幅(为70多年来最大之降幅)之后,却迎来了2010年高达14.5%的恢复性实际增长,又一举创下多边贸易体制自1950年开始贸易统计以来的最大增幅。对于2011年的世界贸易,WTO预测其增长将放慢至温和但更正常的6.5%,但由于世界金融危机和经济衰退的影响余孽未消,加上近期中东和北非等世界重要石油产区的动荡局势以及东日本大地震的影响,其增长前景尚有诸多不确定性,因此,如总干事拉米所言,"维稳"应成为今年的关键词。2010年,中国依然保持世界商品出口第一和进口第二的位置,并在世界商业服务的进出口中的地位均又有所上升。     

Propagation of changes in demand through international trade: A case study of China

China’s economy, the second largest in the world, is undergoing a fundamental transition. Its transition from a strong focus on investment and exports towards a larger share of consumption could have important ramifications for China’s trading partners. Using China as a case study, this paper deploys a sectoral input–output (IO) analysis to take into account higher‐round spillovers from a reduction of import demand or a shift in the composition of the Chinese economy. This approach demonstrates strong indirect effects that exceed by far the initial shock from direct trade links, reflecting China’s integration into a closely knit global value chain. The result suggests that the ongoing transition in China will have important effects on the global economy.     

Australian Meat Industry

Abstract

Australian exports of meat account for about 46 per cent of the total Australian production of meat, and 19 per cent of total world exports of meat. About 52 and 33 per cent of Australian meat exports are sold on Asian and the American markets, respectively. However, Australia is highly restricted in its access to world meat markets by the impact of export subsidies and other trade barriers. The economic and political problems including rigid import controls are barriers to maintaining export sales on some of Australia's traditional Asian markets. The improvement in tariff barriers in Asia, the Americas and other emerging markets is expected to provide improved market access and opportunities for Australian meat. Higher processing and transportation costs beyond the farm gate also contribute to Australia's less competitiveness on world export markets. Australia should, therefore, implement appropriate measures to increase productivity, improve cost efficiency beyond the farm gate and undertake market research and promotion in order to be more competitive in the long run and to capture a sizeable market share from its major global competitors.     

美国次贷危机对新疆出口贸易的影响

美国次贷危机不仅引发了全球金融市场的剧烈动荡和流动性匮乏,更波及到众多国家的对外贸易发展。作为世界上最大的消费市场,美国次贷危机导致本国经济低迷,在很大程度上对中国出I：1产生了负面影响,对于新疆出口贸易短期内影响微弱,但从长期看将会阻碍新疆出口增长。因此应大力推进新疆地产品出口,实现多元化市场战略以降低次贷危机所带来的负面影响。     

技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响研究——基于中美贸易引力模型的实证分析

技术性贸易壁垒与出口之间的关系一直都是学术界关注的重点,但目前学术界对二者之间的具体影响机制尚未形成统一认知。利用2001年~2016年中国电子行业对美国出口额的时间序列数据,通过理论推导与拓展贸易引力模型,研究了美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响。结果表明:实行传统关税壁垒,美国会比中国损失更多的出口利益,从而使得美国放弃关税壁垒而选择技术性贸易壁垒;技术性贸易壁垒对出口呈现正"U"型影响。研究结果还显示:美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口呈倒"U"型影响,这是因为美国技术性贸易壁垒强度会因中国技术创新数量与出口的增加而产生"壁垒强度突变";同时,美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国技术创新数量呈正"U"型影响。根据研究结论,提出了相关政策建议。     

How Do the Asian Economies Compete With Japan in the US Market? Is China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach

We apply a trilateral trade approach to examine how Japanese exports and investment to China, or seven other Asian economies, affect Chinese, or the seven Asian economies', exports to the US market. The results suggest that while Chinese and Japanese exports are directly competitive in US markets, Chinese exports to the US are supported partly by Japanese exports to China. The positive correlation between Japanese exports to China and Chinese exports to the US is explained by vertical trade between Japanese multinationals and their affiliates in China. Indonesian and Philippine exports are also competing with Japanese exports in US markets, though the extent of the competition is much higher for China than for these countries.     

Deutschlands Exportüberschuss auf dem Weg zu neuen Höchstständen — eine Projektion bis 2017

The economic and fi nancial crisis in 2009 triggered a stronger collapse in German exports compared to imports, with the high external surplus falling considerably. By now, global trade has recovered. The authors have calculated trends in German foreign trade, using a gravitation model. Based on IMF forecasts of global economic performance, the projections show that Germany’s export surplus looks set to reach new highs in the medium term.     

从出口大国走向出口强国--1980-2002年全球出口国别格局变化与中国的地位分析

本文以全球出口国别格局的变化为背景,分析20年来中国与美、日、欧等发达国家的双边贸易关系走势,指出中国在已成为出口大国的新形势下,需要以大国的心态来处理国际贸易事务,逐步改变多年来形成的一些习惯思维,调整一些因特定环境出台的刺激政策,以解决长期积累的一些结构性问题,为从出口大国走向出口强国打好基础.     

International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters

We provide a novel set of stylized facts on firms engaging in international trade in services, using unique data on firm-level exports and imports from the world's second largest services exporter, the United Kingdom (UK). We show that only a fraction of UK firms engage in international trade in services, that trade participation varies widely across industries and that service traders are different from non-traders in terms of size, productivity and other firm characteristics. We also provide detailed evidence on the trading patterns of service exporters and importers, such as the number of markets served, the value of exports and imports per market and the share of individual markets in overall sales. We interpret these facts in the light of existing theories of international trade in services and goods. Our results demonstrate that firm-level heterogeneity is a key feature of services trade. Also, we find many similarities between services and goods trade at the firm level and conclude that existing heterogeneous firm models for goods trade will be a good starting point for explaining trade in services as well.     

中国和美国服务业出口竞争力比较分析

本文在界定服务业出口竞争力评价体系的基础上,对中、美两国服务业出口竞争力进行了4个方面的比较分析。通过比较两国服务业净出口额、服务业出口国际市场占有率、服务业贸易竞争优势指数和服务贸易显性比较优势指数4个指标得出:美国在技术密集型的服务业上有极强的出口竞争力,而中国在技术密集型服务业上具有显性比较劣势,并且中国在传统服务业运输和旅游业上的出口竞争力在逐渐减弱,但是中国技术密集型服务业的出口竞争力在增强。最后,本文借助波特的"钻石模型"对中国和美国服务业出口竞争力进行了进一步分析并提出了相应的对策建议。     

Exports,firm size,and firm dynamics

This paper explores the relationships between exports, firm size, and firm dynamics. It is based on a unique longitudinal data set collected at the establishment level, covering some 7000 manufacturing German firms. We present stylized facts on exports and firm size, showing that the probability that a firm is an exporter increases with firm size; however, there are many successful exporters among small firms, and non-exporters among larger firms, too, while most of the exports are from the top size groups of firms. An econometric study shows a picture that is consistent with theoretical considerations: The impact of firm size on exports is positive but decreasing, while human capital intensity, domestic market share, and advanced technology all have a positive influence on the export performance of a firm. Firm growth and export performance are positively related, as is expected from a model of a price-discriminating monopolist.     

Globalization and female labor force participation: The role of trading partners

This paper uses industrial level data from 21 developing and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2013, to analyze the impact of globalization, in particular, trade orientation of industries onto female employment share. The fractional probit estimation reveals that taking cumulative measures of export and import share often camouflages the impact of trade on female employment. The disintegration of export and import share according to their trading partners reveals that exports and imports from the developed world alone contribute to higher female employment. Moreover, it is the low-tech exports to developed countries and high-tech imports from developed countries which results in an increase in female employment. These findings call for the strengthening of trade ties with the developed world, especially when it comes to promoting low-tech exports and high-tech imports. Our results also reveal that the trading links with the developed world can further enhance female employment if developing country possesses a greater pool of educated female labor force.     

The optimal tax on antebellum US cotton exports

The US produced about 80% of the world’s cotton in the decades prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the US possess in the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for US cotton exports and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that the export demand elasticity for US cotton was about −1.7 and that the optimal export tax of about 50% would have raised US welfare by about $10 million, about 0.3% of US GDP or about 1% of the South’s GDP.     

Administrative trade barrier: An empirical analysis of exporting Hollywood movies to China

Movies are among the US’s most successful exports, and China is by far the largest market. China welcomes high-quality US movies in order to grow its own theatrical market while also diligently protecting locally produced movies. China uses a movie import quota system to limit the number of foreign movies, half of which are delayed beyond the US release date by four or more weeks. We empirically study the Chinese government’s import decisions by developing a movie market demand model that integrates two models on concurrent and delayed releases where we consider release timing as an implicit trade barrier. We find that China tends to import US movies that are likely to expand the market demand but limits them from concurrent release when the potential cannibalization effect on local movies is high. Delayed releases of US movies are strongly associated with weaker box-office performance in China, making control of release schedule another vehicle that China leverages in import decisions.