看美国如何调查住房空置率

今年4月份以来,我国各级政府针对房地产市场的可能过热趋势,再次出台趋紧调控政策,但房地产价格似乎仍然存在上升之势。社会舆论纷纷认为,炒作、空置在一定程度上导致了房地产市场虚热。住房＂空置率＂再次成为各界关注的焦点。     

楼市调控下的商业地产融资模式

2010年以来,楼市调控政策密集出台,在住宅市场降温的同时,商业地产却迎来另外一番景象。而商业地产的融资模式也在悄然发生革命性的变化,其中房地产投资信托基金（REITs）、私募基金、商业抵押担保证券（CMBS）等新型融资模式备受关注。     

住房空置率研究

正伴随着房地产开发和城镇化的高歌猛进,"空城"、"鬼城"不断出现,大量空置的住房不仅造成了巨大的资源浪费,也为房地产市场的正常发展埋下祸根。西南财经大学甘犁教授于2014年6月10日发布了《城镇家庭住房空置率及住房市     

浅论对住房抵押贷款保险的认识

众所周知,购买住房消费是金额巨大且手续及为复杂的商品交易。对于相当大的一部分家庭来说,购买商品住房,仍然严重存在着资金不足的问题。住房抵押贷款的出现为房地产市场的发展注入了极大的活力,却无疑加大了贷款银行的风险。住房抵押贷款保险的出台使银行、房地产公司、保险公司和购房者均实现了"多赢",为推动房地产业的和谐发展作出了巨大的贡献。     

休闲

国家计委、国家统计局公布了对35个大中城市房地产市场的调查结果,三季度房地产销售势头较好,房地产价格继续上涨。与去年同期相比,三季度房屋价格上涨4%,涨幅比第二季度扩大1.2个百分点。东、中部地区的宁波、南昌、青岛、杭州和上海等地房屋销售价格涨幅分别达到19.2%、9.5%、8.7%、8.4%和7.9%。西部地区的兰州、银川、西宁等城市分别上涨4.6%、4.8%和3.2%。经济适用房的销售价格也上涨1.2%。住房空置率攀高业界人士观点不一房价在升高,意味着住房供不应求。但不久前,中房指数也公布了一组住房的数字却在表明,商品房空置率在增加。在这组…     

美国次级住房抵押贷款市场的危机及启示

一、美国的次级住房抵押贷款市场危机回顾从2000年到2005年，经过5年房地产火热牛市，美国家庭自有住宅比例达到历史最高纪录。2005年下半年开始．房地产市场开始缩水，房价迅速下跌。2006年三季度起，逾期超过30目没有偿还贷款的比例达到4．6％，次级抵押贷款的违约率则高达12．6％，违约率在过去12个月里增加了25％，美国抵押银行家协会追踪的全美抵押贷款超过4600万件。2007年2月．二十多家发放次级抵堋件敦的公司呆丌棚桕官布神产.[第一段]     

个人住房抵押贷款风险分析与防范

个人住房抵押贷款属于消费信用的方式之一,其主要作用在于可在一定程度上缓和消费者有限的购买力,发挥住房消费对生产的促进作用.但由于个人住房抵押贷款业务的特点:贷款笔数多,贷款周期长,还款方式特殊,因而许多因素都会给个人住房抵押贷款造成影响,带来风险,甚至可能引发金融震荡,如70年代英国的德比银行事件,80年代美国住房抵押公司风波,90年代日本的住房金融案件以及1997年开始的东南亚金融危机的发生,均与房地产金融风险紧密相关.     

2008:中国产能过剩继续显现

2008年,中国经济将呈现三个主要趋势:第一,全年的实际GDP增长率将于六年来首次低于10%。由于信贷扩张带动投资增长,上半年的经济增长仍将保持强劲的势头。但是,受出口增长减速的影响,经济增长会在下半年明显减缓。中国的出口企业现已开     

我国城镇居民住房不平等状况及变动趋势

本文基于"中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)"数据对中国城镇居民住房不平等状况及变动趋势进行了测度。研究发现:总体上,我国住房价值不平等程度较高且呈增加趋势,而住房面积不平等程度相对较低,且在逐渐下降;住房不平等程度会随着收入层次的降低而显著增加,不同收入层次的居民住房不平等组内差距较大,且呈增大趋势,但组间差距仍显著存在。本文建议,政府应当加大住房价格调控力度,加快建立健全房地产税法和住房保障制度,促进住房资产的合理分配。     

房地产泡沫的成因、评估与防范

房地产泡沫是指房地产由于过度投机而产生虚假的需求从而使房地产的价格虚高。房地产泡沫形成原因是银行信贷的非理性扩张、土地的稀缺性、结构性矛盾等因素。房价收入比、空置率和租售比等指标是对房地产泡沫进行评估分析的重要指标。要加大金融监管力度,规范住房金融业务;强化土地资源管理,规范土地市场;合理调整房地产的供给结构,大规模地推出经济适用房和廉租房,防止房地产泡沫的发生。     

浅论影响我国房地产市场的因素及因素的影响

本文主要通过分析影响我国房地产市场继续上扬的因素,包括我国宏观经济将持续保持良好势头、城市化水平的迅速提高、人民币仍处于升值通道中等;以及促使房地产市场回归理性的因素,包括加息、加大保障性住房的供给力度、提高房贷首付、房地产开发及土地储备贷款受到严格管控、开征物业税等;并且具体分析了它们是如何影响市场的,并最终得出结论。     

Mortgage default in an estimated model of the U.S. housing market

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981–2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off.     

Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach

It is a well-known fact that the housing market, with its associated mortgage securities, plays a crucial role in modern economies. The recent crisis of 2007, triggered by the U.S. real estate bubble, confirms this key role and suggests the importance of regulating mortgage lending. This paper investigates these issues by designing a housing market with a linked mortgage lending instrument in the Eurace agent-based model. Our results show that the presence of a housing market in the model has relevant macroeconomic implications, driven mainly by the additional amount of endogenous money injected into the economy by new mortgages. This additional money generally helps to support and stabilize aggregated demand, thus improving the main economic indicators. However, if the regulation of mortgage lending is too lax, involving an increase in the debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI), then the additional supply of mortgages no longer enhances macroeconomic performance, and the stability of the economic system is undermined. Based on a number of recent discussions, a regulation of stock control that targets households’ net wealth (a stock), rather than income (a flow) is designed and analyzed. The results show that regulation of stock control can be combined effectively with DSTI to increase the stability of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Interestingly, the regulation based on stock control also directly affects mortgage distribution among households, avoiding excessive concentration. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that the use of a mild flow control regulation, coupled with a stricter stock control measure, fosters sustainable growth and eases first-time buyers access to the housing market, encouraging homeownership.

     

Renter Mobility and Multifamily Mortgage Default Risk

Renter mobility is a major concern for the performance of multifamily mortgages. If enough new renters are not found to replace those that move, vacancy rates can quickly escalate to where cash flows are negative and property mortgages are in jeopardy. In this study we examine how differences in renter mobility patterns by property type can affect mortgage credit risk within submarkets of an MSA. We expand the default model developed by Goldberg and Capone (2000) to use unique distributions of rental unit turnover and vacancy durations for large and small multifamily rental properties. Monte Carlo simulations then show how credit risk on multifamily mortgages is affected if owners of small properties are able to keep tenants longer than owners of larger properties can. The model can be used to explore other potential intra-MSA differences in property market dynamics.     

秦虹:未来十年房地产随城市化重质减速

未来十年中国政府主动调整经济增长速度,有意识地控制货币发行总量,城市化进展的速度会有所下降。中国没有了房改扩张市场的制度安排,以及大量建设保障性住房分流市场需求,所以未来十年中国房地产企业有空间、会增长,但是增速会放慢,开发企业需要适应政策和市场变化,积极的自我调整和转型。     

浅析个人住房公积金贷款现状及其风险管理

随着房地产市场的升温,房地产商品需求的逐渐增大,房贷规模随之增大,个人住房公积金贷款作为国家政策性住房金融的主体倍受青昧。受市场环境影响,公积金贷款的风险也在增强,文章从公积金贷款的现状出发,分析公积金贷款的风险．并提出有效的控制措施。     

城区特征对房贷的影响

城区特征通过多种途径影响商业银行住房抵押贷款决策.商业银行可以根据城区特征判断一个城区的住房抵押贷款违约风险,进而确定对该城区的最低首付款比例或拒贷率.通过分析国外城区特征对商业银行住房抵押贷款决策的影响机制,联系我国实际情况,指出我国商业银行根据城区特征进行住房抵押贷款决策具有合理性,建议商业银行密切关注城区住房价格波动率,并建议政府限制中低收入城区商业银行的数量.     

论我国商业银行的房贷风险

央行的房贷加息最大的受益者恐怕就是商业银行了，由于房地产贷款大多有房地产资产作为抵押，而且迄今为止房地产信贷的违约率非常低，因此商业银行大都把房地产信贷视为优良的贷款品种，并且都在不遗余力地扩大房地产信贷业务。     

Canada's Housing Bubble Story: Mortgage Securitization,the State,and the Global Financial Crisis

Canada's experience during and after the financial crisis appears to distinguish it from its international peers. Canadian real estate sales and values experienced record increases since the global financial crisis emerged in 2008, rather than declines, and Canada did not witness any bank failures. The dominant trope concerning Canada's financial and housing markets is that they are sound, prudent, appropriately regulated and ‘boring but effective’. It is widely assumed that Canadian banks did not need, nor receive, a ‘bailout’, that mortgage lending standards remained high, and that the securitization of mortgages was not widespread. The truth, however, does not accord with this mainstream view. In fact, the Canadian financial and housing markets reveal marked similarities with their international peers. Canada's banks needed, and received, a substantial ‘bailout’, while federal policies before and after the financial crisis resulted in the massive growth of mortgage securitization and record household indebtedness. This article documents the growth of Canada's housing bubble, the history of mortgage securitization, and of government policies implemented before and after the crisis. Instead of making the Canadian financial and housing sectors more resilient and sustainable, the outcomes of state responses are best understood as regressively redistributive.     

The Distribution of Multifamily Mortgage Originations: What We Know and Why We Care

Three policy-relevant questions about multifamily mortgage originations (MFOs) are addressed. First, what is the annual volume of MFOs? This analysis highlights differences and problems among three publicly available multifamily lending surveys; the 1993 volume is estimated at $30 billion. Second, what is the size distribution of multifamily mortgages? Using kernel density estimation, variation in this distribution among central cities and suburbs, underserved areas, and lender type is examined. Third, what are the primary determinants of the variation in multifamily lending? A relatively simple regression model is estimated to shed light on the variables most highly correlated with multifamily lending. Tract income relative to MSA median income and minority concentrations are shown to be highly correlated with lending volume, but the largest source of variation is the number of multifamily rental units in the tract.