Unemployment Risk, Labour Force Participation and Savings

This paper analyses labour force participation and precautionary savings in the presence of risks of being fired or failing to secure a job offer when out of the labour market. We use a finite horizon framework with two employment states and a stage utility function which is CARA in consumption but non-separable in leisure. The results are that there is precautionary labour force participation: employment risk lowers the reservation wage; generally it also reduces consumption. However due to the non-separability assumption, precautionary savings, as usually defined, may not be positive. We characterize the reservation wage and contrast the results with those in which the stage utility is additive in leisure and consumption. We extend the analysis to study the effects of cyclical variation in employment risk, of stochastic future wage rates, and of adding a third employment state of search.     

Duration-Specific Unemployment Outflow Rates and Labour Market Programs

A matching function approach is used to investigate the macroeconomic effects of labour market program (LMP) commencements on unemployment outflows in Australia using unpublished data that classify commencements and outflows by duration of unemployment. The results indicate that LMPs have had significant effects on outflows from long-term unemployment. However, the net impact of programs on these outflows suggests that the substitution and displacement effects associated with programs are high. These results are consistent with recent microeconomic research into the effects of LMP participation on individual transitions out of unemployment.     

Labour Market Policies and Long-term Unemployment in a Flow Model of the Australian Labour Market

This paper develops a general equilibrium job matching model, which is used to assess the impact of active labour market policies, reductions in unemployment benefits and reductions in worker bargaining power on long-term unemployment and other key macro variables. The model is calibrated using Australian data. Simulation experiments are conducted through impulse response analysis. The simulations suggest that active labour market programs (ALMPs) targeted at the long-term unemployed have a small net impact and produce adverse spillover effects on short-term unemployment. Reducing the level of unemployment benefits relative to wages and worker bargaining power have more substantial effects on total and long-term unemployment and none of the spillover effects of ALMPs.     

Family Income and Wealth,Youth Unemployment and Active Labour Market Policies

This paper studies some features of unemployment in Italy using cross section individual micro data. Since unemployment is particularly harsh with respect to youths, interest is focused on 15-29-year-old youngsters. The analysis is carried out using standard logit models and the results show that personal and family characteristics play an essential role in shaping youth activity and unemployment rates of short and long duration, together with product market conditions and labour market features. In particular, the income effect seems relevant for participation decisions, while the family wealth helps in reducing youth unemployment. Various policy instruments might be able to reduce youth unemployment, especially if these instruments are targeted through means-testing on family income and wealth and through a proper distinction between the first job seekers and the strictly unemployed.     

Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms

In this paper I highlight the importance of incorporating the institutional features of local labour markets into the analysis of trade reforms. A trade reform is often deemed beneficial because the elimination of trade barriers allows labour to reallocate towards those sectors in the economy in which the country has a comparative advantage. The amount and speed of the reallocation, however, and the post-reform behaviour of output, productivity and welfare, will depend on how regulated the labour market is. First, I document that high firing costs slow down the intersectoral reallocation of labour after a trade reform. Second, in order to isolate the effect of firing costs on labour reallocation, output and welfare after a trade reform, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model. I find that if a country does not liberalize its labour market at the outset of its trade reform, the intersectoral reallocation of workers will be 30% slower, and as much as 30% of the gains in real output and labour productivity in the years following the trade reform will be lost. From a policy standpoint, the message is that while trade reforms are desirable, they need to be complemented by labour market reforms in order to be fully successful.     

Employment, The Labour Force and Unemployment in Australia: A Disagregegated Approach

This article presents statistical analysis of the distributional aspects of labour market developments in the Australian economy from 1966 to 1985. The focus is on the adjustment of the labour force to changes in employment opportunities. Two sets of data for selected age/sex/marital groups are utilised in the analysis: regressions to test for differences in the sensitivity of labour force participation to employment opportunities and a series of tables documenting population adjusted changes in employment and the labour force. The aggregate relationship between employment changes and labour force changes (and hence changes in unemployment) is explained by the disaggregated data.     

Immigrant Unemployment in the First Year of Australian Labour Market Activity*

Analysis of data from a 1983 Manpower Programs Survey shows that the relatively high unemployment rates experienced by overseas-born labour market entrants are reasonably widespread across immigrant groups. One exception is refugees, who are more likely to be unemployed than non-refugees. Consistent with prior research, additional years of education are associated with only modest reductions in the unemployment rates of immigrants. However, immigrants are able to reduce their predicted unemployment rates considerably by obtaining information on Australian job opportunities prior to migrating.     

Countercyclical markups and news-driven business cycles

The standard one-sector real business cycle model is unable to generate expectations-driven fluctuations. The addition of countercyclical markups and modest investment adjustment costs offers an easy fix to this conundrum. The simulated model replicates the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations.     

Unemployment Responses to 'Skill-biased' Technology Shocks: the Role of Labour Market Policy

Do skill-biased shocks that increase the spread of labour productivities, interacting with different policy regimes, explain the rise in unemployment in Europe relative to the United States in the 1980s and 1990s? The hypothesis is an implication of a version of the Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) model of equilibrium unemployment which allows for worker heterogeneity. A calibrated version of the model implies that a similar unemployment increase would have occurred in the United States over this period, given changes in relative productivity by education implied by observed wage changes, had unemployment compensation and employment protection policies been at European levels.     

Excess Worker Reallocation

Workers face a trade-off between macroeconomic and individual incentives to work in different occupations/industries; namely, between search frictions and personal comparative advantages. Workers endowed with heterogeneous multi-dimensional skills search for jobs that require different skill combinations. In equilibrium, specialized individuals contact few, selected types of vacancies, where they are likely to be hired; those with weak comparative advantages are seldom chosen among competing applicants, thus seek any job type. In a tight labour market, comparative advantages dominate waiting costs: offsetting labour mobility across industries/occupations—Excess Worker Reallocation—is lower and matches are more successful, consistently with direct and indirect evidence.     

Labour Market Inefficiency and Frictional Unemployment in Australia and its States: A Stochastic Frontier Approach

This paper provides estimates of labour market inefficiency and the frictional unemployment rate for Australia and its States over the period January 1978 to December 1997. These estimates are derived from parametric statistical models of employment growth in which technical inefficiencies are accounted for. The mean estimate of the (technically efficient) frictional unemployment rate for Australia over the sample period is S3 per cent of the labour force. Technical inefficiency in the labour market matching process is significant and contributes around 13 per cent to the mean steady-state (naturaľ) unemployment rate. Investigation of the factors explaining the levels of inefficiency suggests that inefficiencies vary countercyclical, are related to which political party is in power and the time of year and that only Western Australia and Queensland have exhibited a significant decline in inefficiency over the period.     

A Characterization of Australian Unemployment Compensation: An Analysis of Labour Market Adjustment*

This paper uses a labour contracting framework to analyze the microeconomics of the Australian unemployment compensation system. We find that employers adjust labour inputs by using layoffs rather than shortened workweeks or work-sharing during economic recessions. Increases in government benefits tend to reinforce this result Countervailing influences are shown to be the severity of the income test applying to benefits eligibility and the Family Allowance Supplement in its role as supplementing the income of low-income families.     

Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies

The growing literature on macroprudential regulation focuses on how a combination of monetary and macroprudential policies can boost macroeconomic and financial stability. We contribute to this literature by developing a DSGE model that assesses the effectiveness of countercyclical capital regulation in small open economies, in monetary unions or with exchange rate pegs, where policymakers do not have full control over traditional stabilisation instruments such as nominal interest and exchange rates. In such economies, macroprudential policy could potentially play an even more relevant role in mitigating the adverse effects of macro-financial feedback loops. To validate the model’s ability to replicate the stylised facts of financial crises, we calibrate using data for the Irish economy, the scene of a recent housing crash. Our results demonstrate that the pro-active use of countercyclical capital regulation – in the form of Basel III-type rules – can help attenuate boom-bust cycles driven by over-optimistic expectations. We also find that more aggressive action by regulators during the release phase can bolster the economy’s ability to absorb a negative shock.     

Countercyclical pricing: A consumer heterogeneity explanation

We show that a seasonal good could be priced countercyclically due to the heterogeneous seasonal shifts in consumer valuations. We provide empirical support for our explanation based on two product categories (canned soup and tuna) studied in the literature.     

Countercyclical taxes in a monopolistically competitive environment

In the context of a neoclassical growth model with monopolistic competition, this paper studies the stabilizing effects of countercyclical tax policy when the income tax rate has an additional role of financing government budget deficits. Consistent with the conventional wisdom, countercyclical taxes generally reduce aggregate volatility, unless the fiscal response to debt accumulation is weak. The presence of monopoly power enhances these effects. Even when automatic stabilizers successfully stabilize business cycle fluctuations, countercyclical taxes are welfare inferior, due to reduced precautionary saving motives. While, if the fiscal response to debt is weak and countercyclical tax policy destabilizing, the increased precautionary saving motive is not welfare enhancing as the asset accumulated is government debt rather than capital. These results are generally robust. Nominal inertia may, however, dominate the precautionary saving mechanism.     

Reallocation and learning over the business cycle

This paper shows how cyclical aggregate shocks can stimulate structural reallocation activities, which in turn amplify the effect of the shock. It analyses the informational aspects of restructuring activities and their interplay with aggregate shocks. A model is developed in which production units are uncertain about the value of staying in the market and learn about it over time in a Bayesian fashion. In addition to their own private assessment, they can also learn from observing other units’ decisions. Given that adjusting is costly, each unit has an incentive to delay action and wait for other players to act in order to make a better informed decision. If delay is more costly in a downturn, a negative aggregate shock can break the inertia and induce the most pessimistic agents to exit. The information released by such actions will induce more action, thus generating a burst in restructuring activities that reinforces the initial effect of the aggregate shock. This process of information accumulation and revelation offers both a powerful amplification mechanism of relatively modest aggregate shocks and a potential explanation of why restructuring tends to be concentrated in recessions.     

Unemployment and indeterminacy

Using an efficiency-wage model, we examine the relationship between indeterminacy and unemployment insurance. It is shown that the less unemployment insurance is, the more likely equilibrium is to be indeterminate. Equilibrium can be indeterminate even without externalities or increasing returns, which makes a sharp contrast to the recent literature on indeterminacy. Our result is based on the fact that the no-shirking condition with marginal utility of wealth kept constant is downward sloping when income insurance is not perfect.     

Reallocation of an infinitely divisible good

Summary. We consider the problem of reallocating the total initial endowments of an infinitely divisible commodity among agents with single-peaked preferences. With the uniform reallocation rule we propose a solution which satisfies many appealing properties, describing the effect of population and endowment variations on the outcome. The central properties which are studied in this context are population monotonicity, bilateral consistency, (endowment) monotonicity and (endowment) strategy-proofness. Furthermore, the uniform reallocation rule is Pareto optimal and satisfies several equity conditions, e.g., equal-treatment and envy-freeness. We study the trade-off between properties concerning variation and properties concerning equity. Furthermore, we provide several characterizations of the uniform reallocation rule based on these properties. Received: August 29, 1995; revised version June 26, 1996     

Land and Urban Unemployment

This paper re–examines the effects of expansion of land itself on unemployment and welfare in the mobile–capital Harris–Todaro model with land in agriculture. We show the possibility of immiserization and the harmful effects on employment contrary to the conventional results.