Our fans in the north: the demand for British Rugby League

This paper reports the results of estimating a single equation model of an attendance function for British Rugby League over the seasons 1982/83 to 1990/91. The data are panel data covering virtually every team which played in the two division league over the nine year time period. Diagnostic tests indicate that the appropriate model is a semilog random effects model, where the dependent variable is league attendance weighted by population. The major results are as follows: there are significant positive relationships between league attendance and various measures of team success (although the direction of causality is moot), team quality (as proxied by the two divisions) and the economic quality of team location (as proxied by the unemployment rate); but there is no discernible relationship between league attendance and either success in nonleague trophy competitions or measures of exceptional player quality.     

Uncertainty of outcome versus reputation: Empirical evidence for the First German Football Division

This paper deals with the determinants of match attendance in the German premier football league. We analyse uncertainty measures of match outcome as well as uncertainty of championship outcome. Furthermore, we incorporate supporter clubs, reputation, performance measures and weather effects as explanatory variables. Due to the limited capacity of the stadiums, observations on attendance are right censored in our sample. While other authors use the ordinary least squares estimator, which is inconsistent in this framework, we take this restriction implicitly in consideration by using a Tobit model. In conclusion, we show that reputation and goodwill are more important for attendance levels than the thrill of outcome uncertainty.¹ First version received: September 1999/Final version received: January 2001     

Impact of league restructuring on team sport attendances: the case of rugby league

An econometric analysis of attendances at Rugby Footbal League matches, in England, over the period 1966–1990 is presented. The major finding is that the move from one to two leagues, in 1973, had a substantial impact on attendances. Teams in the upper league experienced greater attendances ceteris paribuswhilst those in the lower league had reduced attendances.     

DO SOCCER ASSOCIATIONS REALLY SPEND ON A GOOD THING? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON HETEROGENEITY IN THE CONSUMER RESPONSE TO MATCH UNCERTAINTY OF OUTCOME

The purpose of this study is to analyze whether previous results describing the effect of uncertainty of outcome on match attendance in team sports have been driven by heterogeneity in fan demand. We apply censored quantile regression methods and place particular emphasis on the relationship between match uncertainty and attendance demand, as previous results are highly ambiguous. This is more surprising, as each season association and league officials continue to spend millions on enhancing this uncertainty. We also control for season ticket holders, who are unlikely to be influenced by match specificities. Based on data from German soccer, our results indicate that fan demand shows heterogeneity across quantiles and that increasing match uncertainty of outcome exclusively benefits teams who already face strong attendance demand. ( JEL D12, C14, C24, L83)     

The demand for football: Some evidence on outcome uncertainty

This paper analyses the determinants of match attendances in the English Football League using an improved measure of match outcome uncertainty based on the probability of home team success. Explicit allowance is made for the level of core support as well as the potential non-linearities associated with home team success. The report results are striking and generally robust across all four divisions of the English Football League.     

The Impacts of Promotions/Marketing, Scheduling, and Economic Factors on Total Gross Revenues for Minor League Baseball Teams

The purpose of this empirical study is to identify the key marketing and scheduling determinants of game attendance at minor league baseball games. Identification of such marketing and scheduling factors can provide the management of minor league teams in similar environments with information to more efficiently pursue the goal of game attendance maximization. To ensure greater comparability of data between teams and hence relevance of results, this study focuses upon a single grouping of teams, the Carolina League, and a single minor league baseball season, 2006. The Carolina League consists of eight teams serving eight metropolitan areas: Lynchburg City, VA; Winston-Salem, NC; Wilmington, DE; Salem City, VA; Myrtle Beach, SC; Prince William County, VA; Lenoir City, NC; and Frederick County, MD.     

Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer

This paper examines the relationship between financial inequality, competitive balance and attendance at English professional league soccer. It shows that while financial inequality among the clubs has increased, competitive balance has remained relatively stable and match attendance appears unrelated to competitive balance. A clearer test of the relationship is suggested by comparison with FA Cup matches. Because income inequality is primarily driven by inter- rather than intra-divisional inequality, the FA Cup has been a much more unbalanced competition than the divisional championships. Attendance at FA Cup matches relative to the corresponding league matches has fallen over the last twenty years.     

The demand for standing and seated viewing accommodation in the English Football League

Using match attendance data collected from a postal survey of Football League clubs, separate demand equations are estimated for standing and seated viewing accommodation. Some significant differences between attendance patterns for the two types of accommodation are identified: current form, the championship significance of the match and a geographical distance variable are found to be important determinants of standing attendance, while the club's historical record is of particular importance for seated attendance. The paper also discusses the implications of the results in view of the current moves towards the conversion of stadia to all-seated accommodation.     

Supporter Influence on Club Governance in a Sports League; a “Utility Maximization” Model

The article formalizes a seminal suggestion of Sloane ( 1971 ), studying a sports league in which club objectives are multi‐argument utility functions defined over profits, win percentages and fan (=supporter) welfare, thus combining the three objectives that have been addressed separately in previous models. Particular focus is on the consequences of increasing the utility weight on fan welfare, to capture the recent increasing supporter involvement in club governance in UK football. Positive consequences are unambiguously higher attendances, with more nuanced affects on ticket prices and player expenditure. A normative consequence is that positive profits for club owners indicate social sub‐optimality.     

Fan welfare maximization as a club objective in a professional sports league

Motivated by aspects of European soccer club governance (members' clubs supporters' trusts), a first formal analysis of fan welfare maximization as a club objective in a sports league is provided, with comparisons to objectives studied previously (profit and win maximization). Positive comparisons focus on team qualities, ticket prices, attendances and the impact of capacity crowds; empirically observed ticket black markets and inelastic pricing are consistent only with fan welfare maximization. Normatively, social welfare (aggregate league surplus) is well-served by a league of fan welfare maximizers, or sometimes win maximizers, but not profit maximizers; leagues should not normally make profits.     

The extent to which unbalanced schedules cause distortions in sports league tables

The Australian Football League (AFL) has operated its fixture on the basis of an unbalanced schedule since the league expanded from 12 to 14 teams in 1987. This system contains a number of factors (some random) determining the set of bilateral combinations of teams that play each other on an extra occasion during the course of the season, not least of all maximising attendances. While the status quo may be unavoidable to some extent (it is also a bone of contention to many fans), its implications for within-season measures of competitive balance are nonetheless obvious. This is because of the potential for biases being created in the end-of-season league table as a result of the unbalanced schedule. This paper uses a modified model to correct for this inherent bias over the seasons 1997–2008, and the results are discussed in detail. The model is also generalisable to many unbalanced schedule designs observed in professional sports leagues worldwide.     

The Demand for Australian Rules Football*

Declining attendances at Australian Rules football games organized by the VFL recently have become the focus of much concern. An econometric analysis of the demand for football is presented, using annual average attendance data for the years 1950–86. It is found that increases in admission prices had a significant negative effect on demand, and increases in real income a positive impact. Amongst other variables of importance in explaining demand are lagged attendance and uncertainty of outcome. Elasticities of demand are calculated and it is shown how they might be used to predict attendance under different pricing scenarios.     

STADIUM CONSTRUCTION AND MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL ATTENDANCE

The established literature shows that new stadium construction for major league baseball (MLB) teams can increase attendance, but there are limited studies at the minor league level. We use a data set encompassing all A, AA, and AAA minor league baseball teams from 1992 to 2006 to estimate the impact of stadium construction on minor league attendance. This data set includes almost 200 teams, over half of which constructed a new stadium during the 15‐year observation period. Over a 10‐year period our results show that new stadiums increase attendance by 1.2 million fans at the AAA level, 0.4 million at the AA and high A level, and 0.2 million at short season low A. A cost benefit analysis suggests that increased ticket sales do not offset the stadium costs, in line with previous works on MLB. (JEL H0, L83)     

A case for complements? Location and attendance in Major League Soccer

As Major League Soccer (MLS) continues to award expansion franchises throughout North America, the league must be considerate of how new clubs may impact attendance levels at nearby clubs. Regardless of whether new MLS clubs are awarded to cities with strong North American Soccer League histories, league officials must be mindful of the effect that geographically close competitors can have on attendance. Perhaps stemming from the limited number of clubs in competition, MLS teams currently appear to operate as strategic complements to one another, increasing season-long attendance as teams locate closer to one another.     

Predicting season ticket holder loyalty using geographical information

Season ticket holders (STHs) are an integral part of the sporting product. Interestingly, and contrary to the persistent interest in analysing the determinants of stadium attendances, sports economists have so far largely refrained from exploring the potential determinants of STH loyalty as expressed through regular stadium attendances. In this article, we address this notable shortcoming by exploring the potential determinants of STH stadium attendance demand. In particular, we examine the yet under-researched role of increasing opportunity costs resulting from larger home-stadium distances in STH stadium attendance demand. Our results suggest that STHs’ geographical location plays an important role in predicting STH stadium attendance demand. More specifically, we observe an unexpected, nonlinear distance–attendance relationship, indicating that behaviourally loyal STHs live either exceptionally close or far away from the stadium.     

The demand for cricket: the case of the John Player League

Multiple regression analysis is used to estimate attendance functions (1976 and 1977) for the John Player League, one of the one-day competitions in English top-class cricket. Likely determinants of attendance are grouped according to whether they are economic, locational, team performance, player attraction, seasonal and residual preference factors. The results suggest implications for the management of the game in respect of pricing strategy, scheduling, the structure of competition, player qualification rules, payment scales and television policy.     

The influence of demand and supply side pressures on the quantity and quality of inventive activity

This article arguments the literature on the demand for professional team sports by estimating a demand function for attendance at home matches in the Malaysian Semi-Pro Football League (MSPFL) between 1989 and 1991. A single-equation demand (attendance) function based on a pooled cross-section and time-series panel data set of 399 games is estimated by ordinary least squares, a fixed effects dummy variable covariance model and an error components model. Our findings confirm the importance of market size and championship prospects for the home team (but not the visiting team), as well as divisional status and ‘star’ players. The first match of the season and derby matches also increased attendance.     

Fighting as a profit maximizing strategy in the National Hockey League: more evidence

This article estimates the effect of fighting in hockey games on attendance in the National Hockey League (NHL) over the 1997–1998 through 2009–2010 seasons. After estimating a system of equations developed from a model of a profit-maximizing club owner, it was found that fighting had a small negative effect on attendance implying that encouraging fighting on the ice is not a profit-maximizing strategy. The results are quite robust when incorporating capacity constraints on attendance and exogenous ticket pricing. Other factors that determine club performance and market size were found to significantly affect attendance. The empirical results also suggest that NHL club owners are maximizing profit.     

Evidence on the rationality of expectations in the British manufacturing sector

Empirical support is shown for the propositionthat sports fans prefer the composition of their home team to remain the same from season to season. Controlling for price, income, population, team quality, league, year, the stadium effects, the regression results indicate that for each percentage point increase in the turnover of the composition of the team, attendance will fall by about 0.7%. The implications of this heretofore ignored tendency are briefly discussed.     

Reputation and the league standing effect: the case of a split season in minor league baseball

Split season league design resets standings at the midpoint of the season, thus allowing for two periods in which a team can potentially achieve success in a single season. This context allows us to test both the reputation of the first half winner and the league standing effect on demand. Examination of game-level data from the 2010 Southern League reveals fans are unaffected by measures of both team quality and league standing in the second half of the season. On the other hand, the first half winners saw an 11% increase in attendance as a percent of stadium capacity, suggesting that in the second half of the season winners matter more than winning.