The Formation of Economic Policy: A Cognitive-Evolutionary Approach to Policy-Making

This essay proposes a cognitive-evolutionaryapproach to economic policy making where the entire process ofpolicy-formation and implementation is analyzed as a collectiveprocess of mobilization and problem-solving that extends fromthe individual level over the level of collective decision makingto the constitutional level. In the procedural view proposed,many issues or problems of economic policy are not fully solvedbecause of four main filters or barriers that filter out certainissues while letting others through. The main task for politicalentrepreneurs is to surmount these barriers. Important aspectsof the politico-economic process are cognitive processes of perceptionand interpretation by the individual; processes of interpretation,mobilization, and negotiation at the collective level; and evolutionarydynamics at the constitutional level.—This interdisciplinaryoriented approach provides a framework that suggests new categoriesfor analyzing policy-making in a systematic way by linking thebehavior and thinking of the individual with the ongoing politicalprocess at the collective and constitutional level, and leadsto conclusions for advising politicians.     

中国能源生产率增长中的结构变动——基于Shift-Share方法的分析

本文应用Shift-Share方法对近年来中国能源生产率变动状况在地区和产业层次上进行要素分解分析,研究表明,不管是在地区能源配置还是在部门能源配置中,效率因素始终是总体能效变动的决定性因素,结构因素作用较小。研究还发现,中国能源效率的变动受需求因素影响较大,这反映了国民经济运行中增长方式粗放等深层次矛盾。因此,针对中国能源经济发展的实际,应努力降低各产业部门的能源消耗强度,提高各部门特别是工业部门的技术创新能力,发展科技含量高、能耗小的新型产业,提高经济运行整体质量,立足长远目标,调整产业结构。     

A New Approach to Identifying Structural Development in Economic Systems: The Case of the Queensland Economy

Recently, some economists have come to view economic development as a process of ongoing structural change which has self-organisational features. What is required is evidence concerning the self-organisational character of economic development. In other words, is economic growth associated with growth in the complexity of its structure and with a parallel rise in organisational interdependence? An extended version of qualitative input-output analysis, termed Minimal Flow Analysis (MFA), is used in this paper to analyse the structural linkages and changes that have occurred in the Queensland economy over the last two decades. The MFA evidence confirms that there has been a steady increase in the complexity of the Queensland economy. Economic coordination has occurred, to an increasing extent, through market intermediation. From a self-organisational perspective, it is clear that the Queensland economy has followed a rapid and coherent developmental path, marked by the emergence of bonded structures in its core and increasing complexity on its periphery.     

Continuity and Change in Australian Economic Policy: The Social Welfare Services

Commonwealth social welfare programs can be divided into the social security system, for which the Commonwealth has constitutional responsibility, and programs of grants for services, which depend on Commonwealth exploitation of the Australian fiscal imbalance. Over the past decade federal enthusiasm for services has waxed and waned, resulting in considerable volatility of expenditure. Social security spending, on the other hand, has grown steadily. Until the end of full employment this growth was mainly due to real increases in social security rates and to the easing of entitlement conditions; since that time it has been largely due to demographic factors and to the increase in unemployment and associated increase in takeup rates. Both Liberal and Labor governments have adopted a more constrained attitude to social welfare expenditures since the end of full employment, but even so in most respects the Labor party has remained the more generous of the two.     

Aids: An Economic Approach to the Choice of Policies*

This paper presents a novel approach to the difficult problem of society choosing the optimal set of policy instruments to control the spread of AIDS. The economic approach emphasizes the determinants of agents' behaviour and the reciprocal nature of the market failure problem. The nature of the social objective function is discussed and an expected-utility-maximizing model of the behaviour of HIV-infectious agents is developed In the light of the agents' responses to government policies, some general principles relating to the ranking of instruments and their targeting of individual groups and of instrument variables are developed     

An Efficiency Approach to the Evaluation of Policy Changes

This paper describes an efficiency approach to the evaluation of policy changes. Rather than comparing the utility allocations that arise before and after a policy change is introduced, this approach evaluates a policy change by comparing it with other possible changes which might be made from the status quo. The main merit of the approach is that it is founded on the Pareto criterion rather than on a distributional value judgement. The paper provides a precise statement of the approach and applies it to a number of examples. Some objections to the approach are also anticipated and discussed.     

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach

This paper develops a Bayesian structural VAR model for Bangladesh in a small-open-economy context in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on various macroeconomic variables. To increase the precision of the model identification, we allow the macroeconomic variables of the model to interact simultaneously with each other. This paper finds that the liquidity effect and the exchange-rate effect of the monetary policy shock are realized immediately, while industrial production responds with a lag of over half a year, and the inflation rate responds with a lag of more than one year. I also find that monetary policy shocks are not the dominant source of industrial production fluctuations in Bangladesh.     

中国经济政策变革的经济学分析--比较静态帕累托模型

本结合中国经济改革的实践，从帕累托最优以及帕累托改进的视角观察中国经济改革。在分析的过程中，将经典帕螺托最优的条件加以改进，首先放宽“生产技术条件不变”的条件，阐述中国计划经济向市场经济转轨过程是生产的帕累托改进，继而放宽“个人效用量独立”的条件，认为“西部大开发”即是交换的帕累托改进。     

略论二元经济的实质与转化——基于信息和知识视角

二元经济是发展中国家在发展过程中最基本的经济特征.从信息和知识的角度看,任何经济系统、组织、个人都是信息和知识生产、收集、传递及利用的装置,二元经济形成的关键在于不同区域在信息和知识的生产、收集、传递及利用能力及效率上的差异.因此,二元经济如何发展和转换完全取决于该区域内与信息和知识利用相关能力的形成和发展.     

经济增长方式对经济结构变化的影响

在整个1990年代。中国经济增长明显存在着两个“替代效应”：一是“外资替代效应”,二是“弱质替代强质”现象。两个“替代效应”的存在说明我国经济增长方式有其特殊性,它对经济结构的变化有着深刻的影响。     

基于SVAR模型的货币政策对信贷规模的影响分析

货币政策的目标包括货币量目标和利率目标.在考察货币政策的信贷渠道机制上,本文对1999年1月-20l0年6月货币量和利率对信贷规模的影响进行分时段分析.SVAR模型的估计结果显示,货币总量的效果比利率的效果更加显著,加入货币总量后,对信贷规模变动情况的解释力提高,银行信贷对利率的敏感性呈现显著提升.因此,我国货币政策操作应逐渐依靠利率引导,淡出总量调控,从而规避总量调控带来的流动性过剩和通货膨胀等负效应.     

“平行推进”而不是“循序渐进”：关于体制转轨最优路径的理论与政策

最近一些年,南于亚洲金融危机和世界金融危机的爆发,在分析各国体制改革、金融发展的问题中,“循序渐进”（sequencing）这个概念开始频繁出现在经济讨论中。这对于纠正过去转轨政策讨论中的许多重大谬误,有积极的意义,因为那些在过去长期一味鼓吹“越快开放就越好”的国际组织的官员、跨国公司的经济学家以及许多西方学者,现在不得不承认他们以前不谈任何前提条件地鼓吹发展中国家或转轨经济要全面、迅速地开放市场,是荒谬的。由此引起的理论讨论,引导了人们去更多地关注体制转轨的路径问题或方式问题的研究。但在事实上,“循序渐进”这个概念仍具有误导性,因为它并不是一个确切地描述制度变革的现实与本质的概念,也不是一个有用的改革政策的分析工具。     

生态与经济互动关系分析对生态经济耦合评价模型的应用

近几年来,随着社会经济的飞速发展,人们对资源的需求量日益加大,却忽视了对生态环境的保护。过度开发及利用地球资源,最终导致自然资源濒临耗竭,严重破坏了地球生态环境,威胁到人类的生存与发展。因此,实现生态与经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。通过阐述生态与经济的辨证关系与理论,在此基础上分析了耦合评价模型,并将该模型应用于生态与经济互动关系的研究上,最后提出生态与经济可持续发展的建议,以期对今后的研究工作提供参考借鉴。     

试用投资者情绪理论解释中国封闭式基金的价格变动

封闭式基金的折价交易是国内外基金市场的普遍现象,而传统经济理论在解释封闭式基金折价现象方面的失败对"市场有效性假说"提出了质疑.当我们在界定了"噪声交易者风险"的内涵和简单介绍了DSSW模型之后,对中国封闭式基金折(溢)价做出了一个尝试性的解释.