Ratio Analysis and Equity Valuation: From Research to Practice

Financial statement analysis has traditionally been seen as part of thefundamental analysis required for equity valuation. But the analysis has typicallybeen ad hoc. Drawing on recent research on accounting-based valuation, this paperoutlines a financial statement analysis for use in equity valuation. Standardprofitability analysis is incorporated, and extended, and is complemented with ananalysis of growth. An analysis of operating activities is distinguished from theanalysis of financing activities. The perspective is one of forecasting payoffs to equities. So financial statement analysis is presented as a matter of pro formaanalysis of the future, with forecasted ratios viewed as building blocks offorecasts of payoffs. The analysis of current financial statements is then seen asa matter of identifying current ratios as predictors of the future ratios thatdetermine equity payoffs. The financial statement analysis is hierarchical, withratios lower in the ordering identified as finer information about those higher up.To provide historical benchmarks for forecasting, typical values for ratios aredocumented for the period 1963–1999, along with their cross-sectionalvariation and correlation. And, again with a view to forecasting, the time seriesbehavior of many of the ratios is also described and their typical long-run,steady-state levels are documented.     

Analysts Earnings Forecasts and the Roles of Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation

This study examines the effect of the degree of association between current earnings and expected future earnings on the relative importance of earnings and book value for explaining equity price. Consensus analysts forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings are used to proxy for expected future earnings and are compared to reported current earnings to measure the degree of the association. We find that the value-relevance of current earnings negatively correlates with the extent to which consensus analysts forecasts deviate from current earnings. We also find that the incremental explanatory power of book value for equity price positively correlates with this measure. These results remain robust after controlling for factors known to be affecting the value-relevance of earnings such as negative earnings and the earnings-to-book ratio. Our results also show that this analysts' forecast-based measure of `earnings persistence' dominates historical earnings variance in explaining cross-sectional variations in the value-relevance of earnings and book value.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

Future Stock Performance of Oil and Gas Firms Conditional on the Imputed Value of Reserves

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Harris and Ohlson (1990) provide evidence suggesting market inefficiencies in the pricing of oil and gas firms in the 1979–1984 period. This...     

Security Choice, Information Effects and Firm Characteristics: A Factor Analytic Approach

Abstract:   We examine the marginal choice between debt and equity securities using a factor analytic approach. This data reduction property eliminates the need to select the one best variable to proxy for a particular theoretical construct. Our results reinforce numerous existing findings using traditional methods and suggest both static tradeoff and asymmetric information based considerations are relevant in determining security choice. Two new results are presented related to the accounting liquidity of the firm. First, the preference for equity is increasing with liquidity as suggested by the window of opportunity hypothesis. Secondly, the market response to equity issuance announcements is inversely related to the liquidity of the firm. Profitability and growth measures support Jensen's (1986) agency cost of free cash flow as a potential explanation for the second finding.     

Conservatism, Growth and the Role of Accounting Numbers in the Fundamental Analysis Process

I evaluate the effects of conservative accounting for research and development (R&D) and past growth in R&D on: (1) the relation between aggregate earnings (deflated by price) and contemporaneous stock return, and (2) the association between estimates of value derived from the residual income valuation model (i.e., RIV estimates) and equity market value. I show that the conservative treatment of R&D affects the earnings/return relation only for firms that experience high growth in R&D during the return interval of interest. I also demonstrate that the effect of conservative accounting for R&D on the association between RIV estimates and equity market values is increasing in past growth in R&D.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

A Finite Difference Approach to the Valuation of Path Dependent Life Insurance Liabilities

This paper sets up a model for the valuation of traditional participating life insurance policies. These claims are characterized by their explicit interest rate guarantees and by various embedded option elements, such as bonus and surrender options. Owing to the structure of these contracts, the theory of contingent claims pricing is a particularly well-suited framework for the analysis of their valuation.The eventual benefits (or pay-offs) from the contracts considered crucially depend on the history of returns on the insurance company's assets during the contract period. This path-dependence prohibits the derivation of closed-form valuation formulas but we demonstrate that the dimensionality of the problem can be reduced to allow for the development and implementation of a finite difference algorithm for fast and accurate numerical evaluation of the contracts. We also demonstrate how the fundamental financial model can be extended to allow for mortality risk and we provide a wide range of numerical pricing results.     

Stock Market Valuation, Profitability and R&D Spending of the Firm: The Effect of Technology Mergers and Acquisitions

Abstract:  In this paper, we investigate whether a firm can enhance the effect of its R&D spending on its current market value and future profitability through technology-oriented M&As. On the basis of an analysis of 1,879 M&As, we find that when a technology firm acquires another technology firm, the magnitude of the stock price response to the R&D spending of an acquirer increases by 107% in the year of the M&A. In contrast, we find no such increase in the stock price response to the R&D spending of a non-technology acquirer. We also find that technology acquirers are more successful in converting their R&D spending into positive future profitability than non-technology acquirers. Our results are robust for different alternative specifications of our model and when various firm differences are controlled for.     

Relative Value Relevance of the Successful Efforts and Full Cost Accounting Methods in the Oil and Gas Industry

This paper examines the value relevance of two alternative accounting methods for exploration and development (E&D) expenditures for oil and gas firms. I find that full cost (FC) accounting data is more value-relevant than successful efforts (SE) accounting data. Further analysis reveals that the smooth earnings provided by the FC method contributes to the higher value relevance of the FC method. This study concludes that a policy of full capitalization of expenditures with uncertain future economic benefits better summarizes information relevant to investors relative to a policy of partial capitalization.     

A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts' Forecast Bias, Analyst Following, and Institutional Ownership

In this paper we use a simultaneous equations model to examine the relationship between analysts' forecasts, analyst following, and institutions' investment decisions. Estimates of our three equation model using US data indicate that higher institutional demand leads to greater optimism among analysts and lower analyst following. At the same time, institutional demand increases with increasing optimism in analysts' forecasts but decreases with analyst following. We also investigate firm characteristics as determinants of analysts' and institutions' decisions. Empirical estimates of the effects of these characteristics indicate that agency‐driven behavioral considerations are significant.     

A Comparative Analysis of Auditor, Manager and Financial Analyst Interpretations of SFAS 5 Disclosure Guidelines

This study examines empirically whether financial analysts (users), as well as managers (preparers) and external auditors ascribe different interpretations to the SFAS 5 disclosure criteria. We find: (1) financial analysts are, on average, more conservative than managers and auditors in their numerical interpretations of both the 'remote' and 'probable' verbal phrases; (2) managers and auditors share very similar numerical interpretations of these verbal phrases; (3) audit partners' numerical interpretations of the 'remote' region are between those of managers and users, whereas audit managers align their numerical interpretations with those of managers. One danger is that preparers of financial statements may omit loss contingency information that users consider valuable.     

现代金融分析：范围、路线和范式转换

文章讨论了现代金融分析领域所涉及的基本问题和研究范围,识别金融分析同货币分析的区别和联系,现代金融分析发展的思想起源以及随着这种思想路线的发展而形成新古典主义金融分析。并对现代金融学的理论框架进行评估,分析了行为金融学兴起的价值理论基础。其目的是对“现代金融学”教学和研究的理论框架、历史演变,以及变革发展的趋势作一个概括,从而为我国21世纪的条件下的金融学理论体系重建提供一个历史的参照。     

Oil prices and accounting profits of oil and gas companies

This paper investigates the relationship between commodity prices of crude oil, capital structure, firm size and accounting measures of firm performance using a sample of oil and gas firms from 1990 to 2008. We employ estimates based on panel least squares, a fixed effects model and a random effects model. We also use generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Blundell and Bond (1998, 2000). Our findings show that crude oil prices positively and significantly impact the performance of oil and gas firms in North America using accounting measures of performance. The recent financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 negatively influenced oil prices and the financial performance of oil and gas firms. On the other hand, the earlier global crises (Asian financial crisis and 9/11) did not have a significant impact on the return on equity of oil and gas companies. Our primary contribution to the literature is a comprehensive and econometric analysis of the relation between commodity prices and accounting measures of performance oil and gas companies.     

On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises

Abstract:  This study extends Ertimur et al. (2003) and Jegadeesh and Livnat (2006a) by providing a contextual framework for the information content of revenue and earnings surprises. I find that the influence of earnings surprises (revenue surprises) on stock returns is lower (higher) in R&D intensive companies. Also, market reaction to earnings surprises is lower in the fourth quarter, and to revenue surprises it is higher in industries with oligopolistic competition. A comprehensive analysis indicates that, in contrast to previous studies for the full sample, in several contexts market reaction to earnings surprises is not higher than to revenue surprises.     

我国石油、天然气行业税费制度探析

本文首先介绍了我国石油、天然气行业的相关税费制度,归纳了国外石油税制的经验。在此基础上,对我国石油、天然气税费制度中存在的问题进行了分析,并对完善我国石油、天然气行业的税费制度提出了若干政策建议。     

A Re-examination of the Case for Accounting Separately for the Debt and Equity Features of Convertible Debt

The case for accounting separately for the debt and equity features of a convertible bond is based on two main assumptions: convertible debt can be decomposed into two, or more, fundamental financial instruments, and a convertible bond has the same economic substance as a bond with a detachable warrant. These assumptions are re-examined in this paper where it is shown that it is generally not possible to decompose a convertible bond into fundamental financial instruments, nor is it possible to form a package of a bond and a detachable warrant that replicates the character of the convertible bond.     

A Fundamental Approach to Estimating Economies of Scale and Scope of Financial Products: The Case of Mutual Funds

We propose a Fundamental approach to estimate the economies of scale and scope for financial institutions offering multi-product lines. We first estimate pure economies of scale from its fundamental definition, which is the marginal cost reduction that is to be achieved by single product firms of increasing size that offer the same product. Similarly, we estimate the economies of scope from its fundamental definition, as the marginal cost reduction achieved by the addition of a new product line. Operationally, we compare the cost of operating a say, 3 product-line financial institution with the cost of operating a portfolios of companies that are synthetically created from a control sample of financial institutions offering fewer, such as 2 and 1 similar product lines. When this approach is applied to mutual funds data, we find economies of scale for some fund type. The evidence on marginal cost economies due to increasing scope is rather weak. The results have practical implications for potential organizers and current management of investment companies.     

内蒙古自治区财经类毕业生就业现状及对策

本文结合内蒙古财经学院毕业生的就业情况,深入地研究了目前财经类专业大学毕业生的就业形势,详细地分析了财经类专业毕业生就业的优势、不利因素和需求等,针对这样的现状提出了可以帮助财经类专业毕业生增强就业实力的对策办法。希望能够为财经类专业毕业生理清思路,同时也能为学校和自治区教育主管部门缓解大学生就业压力的工作献上一份绵薄之力。     

Herding behaviour and volatility clustering in financial markets

We propose a financial market model in which speculators follow a linear mix of technical and fundamental trading rules to determine their orders. Volatility clustering arises in our model due to speculators’ herding behaviour. In case of heightened uncertainty, speculators observe other speculators’ actions more closely. Since speculators’ trading behaviour then becomes less heterogeneous, the market maker faces a less balanced excess demand and consequently adjusts prices more strongly. Estimating our model using the method of simulated moments reveals that it is able to explain a number of stylized facts of financial markets quite well. Various robustness checks with respect to the model setup reveal that our results are quite stable.     

The Value Relevance of Oil and Gas Disclosures: An Assessment of the Market's Perception of Firms' Effort and Ability to Discover Reserves

The purpose of this study is to determine whether supplemental reserve disclosures contain value-relevant information by examining the extent to which they convey information regarding firms' effort and ability to discover reserves. Using Ohlson's (1995) model as a framework, two hypotheses were developed and tested. The empirical results indicate that both effort and ability to discover reserves are significant in explaining the market value of full cost firms. However, only effort is significant (marginally) in explaining the market value of successful efforts firms.