EXPLAINING RISING INEQUALITY: SKILL‐BIASED TECHNICAL CHANGE AND NORTH–SOUTH TRADE*

Abstract We review the ‘skill‐biased technological change (SBTC) versus North–South trade (NST)’ debate in order to explain widening wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. The traditional explanations based on exogenous SBTC and on the North–South Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson approach, as well as the early estimates that diagnosed a clear prevalence of the former, are firstly exposed and discussed. A presentation is then made of the recent theoretical literature that endogenizes SBTC, introduces new channels of impacts from NST, and combines both explanations. Finally, the current estimates show that (i) both explanations are relevant, (ii) their impacts differ according to industries and countries, (iii) outsourcing is the main vector of impact from NST and (iv) SBTC and NST interact.     

FAIR TRADE IS COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AND UNFAIR: REJOINDER

This is a rejoinder to a criticism of Henderson (2008 ) by Alastair Smith. Our conclusion is that Henderson's basic case, although nicked around the edges by developments since the original was written, still stands. Moreover, we point out that Smith's criticism of Henderson's point that Fair Trade could help kill the banana actually supports Henderson's case. Finally, Smith's proposed 'trade, not aid' solution does not contradict Henderson (2008 ). Refusing to buy Fair Trade coffee and other products and, instead, buying quality coffee and other products would not reduce trade, as Smith seems to imply.     

INTRA-FIRM TRADE

Abstract. The study analyses intra-firm trade, that is the estimated one-third of world trade which is transacted between affiliated parties. As firms realize the increasing potential for integrating their operations throughout the world, they are contributing to significant shifts in the patterns of interntional trade and industrial development. As emphasized here, international trade is inextricably linked to the growing and substantial share of transactions between affiliated parties conveyed through multinational enterprises.     

THE EURO'S TRADE EFFECT: A META‐ANALYSIS

Many studies have estimated the trade effect of the euro, but their results vary greatly. This meta‐analysis collects 3323 estimates of the euro effect along with 28 characteristics of estimation design from almost 60 studies and quantitatively examines the literature. The results show evidence of publication bias, but they also suggest that the bias decreases over time. After correcting for the bias, the meta‐analysis shows that the literature is consistent with an effect ranging between 2% and 6%. The results from Bayesian model averaging, which takes into account model uncertainty, show that the differences among estimates are systematically driven by data sources, data structure, control variables, and estimation techniques. The mean reported estimate of the euro's trade effect conditional on best‐practice approach is 3%, but is not statistically different from zero.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN MINING PRODUCTS

Abstract The increase in mineral price volatility since 1970 and worries about the impact of rapidly growing mineral exports on the economic growth of developing countries have created recent interest in mineral trade flows and policies. This paper provides a review of current thinking on the economics of international trade in mining products. Despite mining products’ importance in early formulations of trade theory, there have been relatively few studies that have specifically examined mining product trade flows. The limited evidence that exists supports the idea that factor endowment differences explain much mining product trade. There is some apparent South–South and intra‐industry trade in mining products, but we find no need to resort to the ‘new trade theory’ to explain this. Given worries of substandard growth and development in mining‐based economies, trade policies have been used to try to accelerate the movement towards resource‐based manufacturing. In the light of recent evidence that mining product exporters have not suffered in the long‐run from mining activity, these policies are likely to have been unwarranted. Nevertheless, there is some evidence that the more closed mining economies have had faster growth than the open mining economies, reflecting correction of a political economy trap that causes open mining economies to under‐invest in education.     

BRIDGING TRADE THEORY AND LABOUR ECONOMETRICS: THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION*

Abstract This paper surveys current theoretical and empirical research on international migration with a particular emphasis on the links between trade theory and labour empirics.     

THE SPANISH EXTERNAL SECTOR: A POLICY OF TRADE OPENNESS

This paper describes the process of trade liberalisation experienced by the Spanish economy between 1960 and 2000. The path towards liberalisation involved progressive reductions of quantitative restrictions, which were replaced by border taxes. Over the period external openness grew, although along an irregular path.     

TRADE PROTECTIONISM IN AUSTRALIA: ITS GROWTH AND DISMANTLING

Protection from import competition was a defining feature of the birth of the Australian federation in 1901. For the next 70 years, the extent of protection grew, and broadened from mainly tariffs to also involving import licencing after World War II. There was a one-off 25% across-the-board cut in tariffs in 1973 and some dismantling of agricultural subsidies, but that was followed by the re-imposition of import quotas for the most-protected manufactured goods. Then in the mid-1980s, a new reformist government began a long process of dismantling all protection as part of an overall economic reform program that also involved de-regulation, privatization and moving to a flexible exchange rate. The rewards included three decades of faster economic growth and an unprecedented rise in Australians’ living standards. This paper provides a history of economic thought on the pros and cons of protectionism for the small, distant, natural resource-rich Australian economy and a survey of the literature on the extent, effects and political economy reasons behind the growth of Australian protection and its eventual dismantling.     

NEOCLASSICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO TRADE POLICIES

Abstract. This paper starts with a review of the literature on 'neoclassical'political economy and then goes on to apply this perspective to the issue of trade liberalization. In this connection, the paper critically discusses various political economy models which have been advanced to explain patterns of trade policies in both developed and developing countries and assesses them in light of recent empirical evidence. The paper also makes a brief review of the empirical planning studies which estimate the gains from trade liberalization.     

EMBODIED CARBON IN TRADE: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

This paper critically reviews the literature on embodied carbon in trade and evaluates our present empirical understanding of these flows. A careful comparison of quantitative results from this literature exposes significant inconsistencies. For instance, estimates for emission embodied in world trade in 2004 range between 4.4 Gt and 6.2 Gt CO2, the difference corresponding to around half of Europe's annual emissions. A few consistent themes do nevertheless emerge from the literature. Most importantly, emissions in trade constitute a large and growing share of global emissions. Uncertainty about country‐level embodied emissions remains large, however, which presents severe limitations for the practical application of embodied carbon principles in climate policy.     

TRADE POLICY AND PROTECTIONISM IN ARGENTINA

Protectionism can take many different forms. In some cases, strong export performance can mislead observers assessing the trade policy of a country. Such is the case with regard to Argentina, where the strong showing in exports is not the result of a strategy of export‐led economic growth, but rather reflects a complex strategy of government intervention and isolation from international markets in general.     

WILLIAM HUSKISSON AND THE RHETORIC OF FREE TRADE

The British economy was wedded to protectionism at the turn of the nineteenth century, and the disruptive impact of the Napoleonic Wars served to bolster the case for duties on foreign imports. Notwithstanding this unpropitious climate, major strides were taken in the march towards freer trade in the 1820s. This article underlines William Huskisson's significance in this transition, ascribing particular importance to the manner in which he presented his economic reforms and, relatedly, his intellectual legacy in the decades after his death.     

TOP-DOWN SUPPORT FOR BOTTOM-UP TRADE LIBERALISATION

The old days of multilateral trade rounds are over. Mercantilist bargaining is doing more harm than good. The World Trade Organization (WTO) should adapt to the new realities by promoting liberal ideas and facilitating sound policy-making at domestic level. In particular, the trade policy reviews written by the WTO Secretariat should become more compelling arguments for trade liberalisation.     

FROM THE CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS TO EMPIRICISTS: A REVIEW OF THE TERMS OF TRADE CONTROVERSY

Contrary to the classical position, the works of Prebisch and Singer in the middle of the last century launched the controversial hypothesis of a long-term decline in the terms of trade of primary products vis-á-vis manufactured goods and a corresponding decline in the terms of trade of developing countries vis-á-vis advanced ones. The present study traces the origin and evolution of the hypothesis and reviews the related statistical debate. It also reviews the theoretical support for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. It is an exercise in the history of economic thought to trace how the controversies surrounding the terms of trade have evolved over time, specifically noting that, with the development of the field of econometrics, the central thesis of the argument got lost somewhere in the realm of hi-tech statistical debates.     

EVALUATING THE CRITICISMS OF FAIR TRADE1

This article critically examines some of the most common arguments used to support the view that Fair Trade should be rejected by consumers and businesses seeking to socialise their economic decisions. Overall the paper finds that the majority of such criticisms lack evidential rigour and sophisticated theory but instead rely on a high degree of rhetorical aptitude. While this does not naturally lead to the position that Fair Trade is necessarily beneficial, the conclusion reflects on a substantial amount of positive evidence to suggest that Fair Trade should not be abandoned by consumers or businesses.     

PROCESSING TRADE BIASES THE MEASUREMENT OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN CHINA

Vertical specialization (VS) is often measured by the import contents of the exports, using an input–output (I–O) framework. Half of China's exports are processing exports, which largely depend on imported intermediate inputs and tie up upstream as well as downstream trade partners. Thus, one would expect to find strong VS for China. Using the ‘ordinary’ I–O tables, however, this is not the case. Because the production of processing exports is only a small part of total production, the average input structure in the I–O table hides the typical features of processing exports. Using adapted, tripartite I–O tables (for 2002 and 2007) in which the processing exports have been singled out, indeed reveals the expected strong VS in China.     

THE CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM: MOVING BEYOND UNI‐ AND BIVARIATE ANALYSIS

A body of work using the continuous wavelet transform has been growing. We provide a self‐contained summary on its most relevant theoretical results, describe how such transforms can be implemented in practice, and generalize the concept of simple coherency to partial wavelet coherency and multiple wavelet coherency, moving beyond bivariate analysis. We also describe a family of wavelets, which emerges as an alternative to the popular Morlet wavelet, the generalized Morse wavelets. A user‐friendly toolbox, with examples, is attached to this paper.     

TRADE,MERCANTILISM AND NATION‐BUILDING

Most treatments of protectionism by economists try to account for the departure on a case‐by‐case basis. However, protectionism is often an element in a systematic political economy. This was developed by authors such as List, and persists today. Debating it requires normative as well as analytical arguments in a political economy approach.     

ASSESSING THE OLYMPIC GAMES: THE ECONOMIC IMPACT AND BEYOND

This study reviews the literature on the evaluation of the Olympic Games, within the broader framework of their significance as cultural assets and opportunities for endogenous growth and sustainable development of the host city. The study reviews the main approaches to the economic assessment of the Games, from the point of view of the underlying economic concepts and methodologies, as well as of the empirical results obtained. It focuses on the effects that are measured and on those, which even though important, are generally neglected. The methodologies utilized for the quantitative assessments of the Games are reviewed with special emphasis on impact and cost–benefit analysis, both on ex ante and ex post basis. The studies surveyed are analysed from the point of view of different sets of effects on the host city, and for a limited number of cases, on the host country. While the major focus is on hosting the Summer Olympics, some attention is also paid to the bidding cities, the Winter Olympics and the Paralympics. The general findings appear to be controversial with some hints of positive overall effects, but also with a well‐documented tendency to exaggerate the benefits and underestimate the costs of holding the Games in the ex ante versus the ex post studies. The survey finally suggests that ex post cross‐country econometric studies tend to catch sizable differential and persistent benefits ignored by individual studies, especially on macroeconomic and trade variables.