亚洲发展中国家经济增长前景有所改善

据亚洲开发银行(简称:亚行)最新发布的一份报告称,由于今年第一季度的出口需求高于预期,2017年亚洲发展中国家的经济增长前景有所改善. 在《2017年亚洲发展展望》的补充报告中,亚行将2017年亚太地区的增长预期从此前的5.7％上调至5.9％,并将2018年的增长预期从5.7％上调至5.8％.2018年增长率的上调幅度较小,反映出亚行对出口推动力的可持续性持谨慎态度.     

影响亚洲发展中国家的增长前景

根据亚洲开发银行（简称：亚行）发布的《亚洲发展展望补充》（ADOS）数据显示,欧洲日益恶化的金融及银行业危机和美国经济的疲软复苏正在对亚洲发展中国家的增长前景产生重压。     

论偿债能力评估

金融资产管理公司受国务院委托集中时间和力量,利用特殊手段集中处理商业银行多年累积的不良资产,在处置过程中主要运用债权(务)重组的手段实施折扣变现,而确定重组的依据是债务人的偿债能力.本文对如何进行偿债能力评估,评估结论如何表述,使用时应注意的问题作了一些探索.     

主权债务问题:全球同此凉热

为应对2008年国际金融危机对自身经济造成的冲击,大部分国家和地区都推出了积极的财政政策和宽松的货币政策,以抑制经济下滑。然而,这些政策虽然在一定程度上稳定了经济金融形势,抑制了危机的扩散和蔓延,却为自身财政增加了不少负担,各国和地区普遍呈现出财政支出增加、财政赤字显现、政府债务规模放大等现象,为主权债务问题爆发埋下了隐患。不仅在"欧猪五国"2009年末,由标普、穆迪、惠誉三大     

家庭债务危机困扰韩国

随着韩国家庭贷款额的迅速增长,巨额家庭债务及其造成的信用卡坏帐多、不良信用者激增等问题已经引起韩国社会的普遍关注,成为影响韩国金融信誉并制约经济增长的直接因素,因 而成了韩国政府急待解决的头等经济难题     

Valuation of the Debt Tax Shield

In this study, we use cross–sectional regressions to estimate the value of the debt tax shield. Recognizing that debt is correlated with the value of operations along nontax dimensions, we estimate reverse regressions in which we regress future profitability on firm value and debt rather than regressing firm value on debt and profitability. Reversing the regressions mitigates bias and facilitates the use of market information to control for differences in risk and expected growth. Our estimated value for the debt tax shield is approximately 40 percent (10 percent) of debt balances (firm value), net of the personal tax disadvantage of debt.     

财政风险与国债结构管理--从国债再融资角度的分析

国债风险是财政风险中的核心内容，控制风险的思路不能囿于国债总量的控制，还要注重国债结构管理所能发挥的作用。本文从国再融资资风险的角度，分析了国债结构管理在防范财政风险中的作用，并对我国国债现状进行了实证分析。最后，笔者提出，为降低我国财政风险，目前应该增加长期债券比例，形成一个均衡的债务期限。     

基于私人部门债务通缩视角的欧债危机成因新解

2007年以来欧债危机的爆发有两大基础:一是上世纪七八十年代以来欧美金融市场的自由化、证券化,以及随之而来的银行加杠杆;二是1990年代以来,主要发达国家私人部门的负债水平迅速攀升.这两大变化是欧债危机的重要背景.以美国次贷危机为触发点,欧洲银行业爆发了流动性危机,私人部门随之发生了长周期的债务通缩.为了对抗通缩螺旋,政府通过救赎银行承担起了债务,进而导致主权债务危机浮出水面.因此,私人部门的债务通缩在这一演变过程中起到了关键作用且决定了危机的走向.     

Debt Relief: Implications of Secondary Market Discounts and Debt Overhangs

An efficient rescheduling of the debt must take into accountthe market value of the debt. I argue here that the appropriateapproach is not to write down the debt to its value on the secondarymarket, but to scale the flows of payments on the debt. Thekey to an efficient rescheduling is to offer debt relief reflectingthe market discount, where the relief is contingent upon thecountry's adjustment effort (rather than setting repayment terms"once and for all" as in the Brady plan). I propose, as an example,that stabilization or adjustment programs under the aegis ofthe International Monetary Fund or the World Bank could includeprovisions allowing debt servicing or repurchase for a set durationat the secondary market rate. This would both reflect and provideincentives to increase a country's ability to repay.     

Strategic Debt Service

When firms experience financial distress, equity holders may act strategically, forcing concessions from debtholders and paying less than the originally-contracted interest payments. This article incorporates strategic debt service in a standard, continuous time asset pricing model, developing simple closed-form expressions for debt and equity values. We find that strategic debt service can account for a substantial proportion of the premium on risky corporate debt. We analyze the efficiency implications of strategic debt service, showing that it can eliminate both direct bankruptcy costs and agency costs of debt.     

政府管债技术论

政府的债务问题属于经济增长与发展中的问题,对债务进行管理,需要从经济增长与发展的大环境角度出发。经济的持续稳定增长,再加上有良好的财政状况,政府的债务不一定就对政府造成财政负担。     

Financial Reporting Quality,Debt Maturity,and the Cost of Debt: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the influence of different financing channels—bond issuance or bank loans—as well as debt maturity and the quality of financial reporting on the cost of debt in China. The authors find that conservative accounting is an important characteristic of high-quality financial reporting that can reduce the cost of longer maturity debt such as bank loans and bonds. Even state-owned enterprises, which have fewer financial constraints than non-state-owned enterprises, benefit from accounting conservatism's ability to reduce financial costs. Moreover, the findings indicate that bond investors are concerned about the issuer's fundamentals, while banks are more likely to focus on the operation and bankruptcy risk of borrowers.     

债务危机离中国有多远——中国对外债务可持续性状况评估

短期外债占比偏高被视为中国金融安全的一个重大威胁.随着国际金融危机不断蔓延深化,受全球金融去杠杆化影响,2008年四季度中国外债规模骤然由升转降,短期外债占比急剧回落,使中国对外债务的可持续性面临巨大挑战.本文分析认为,充裕的流动性和特殊的债务结构为中国外债的可持续性提供了保障,中国近期无债务危机之忧.