A framework for journal assessment: The case of the Journal of Banking & Finance

We propose a citation-based framework for the assessment of journal influence and demonstrate its application with the Journal of Banking and Finance. The framework assesses the current position of the journal, its trends and the reasons behind the trends. The Journal of Banking and Finance is found to be one of the leading journals in the field of finance and its influence is increasing. In fact, it appears to be part of a group of leading journals that is separating itself from the other journals that are generally regarded as peers. Finally, the Journal of Banking and Finance is found to be the only leading finance journal with a high concentration of banking articles, making it a primary outlet for influential articles in this area.     

Access to financing and firm growth

Why do some firms grow faster than others? Although various observed and unobserved aspects of firms have been suggested as potential drivers of firm heterogeneity, economists disagree sharply on the role of financial structure in influencing firm growth. In this paper, I use a sample of quoted and unquoted firms to show that the effect of financial structure on firm growth is statistically significant and quantitatively important. In the presence of external financing constraints, firms rely more on internal funds to finance growth, but the effect of internal financing on firm growth decreases with an increase in the firm’s access to an external bank credit facility. As the external financing constraint is alleviated, the firm relies less on internal funds and switches to external financing as the primary source of financing for its growth. This pattern of transition between internal and external financing is particularly pronounced in small unquoted firms (conditional on their survival). These results suggest a real effect of financial structure on growth via the channel of an external financing constraint.     

IPO underwriting and subsequent lending

This study investigates the relation between IPO underwriting and subsequent lending. We find that when a bank underwrites a firm’s IPO, the bank is more likely to provide the issuer with future loans at a lower cost, compared to banks without an IPO underwriting relationship. The evidence also suggests that the underwriting banks share information surplus with the IPO firms in the post-IPO loans, supporting the cost-saving hypothesis. Overall, the evidence for the relation between prior IPO underwriting and subsequent lending supports the notion that firms can derive value from investment bank relationships.     

Finance is good for the poor but it depends where you live

I examine whether or not the incomes of the poor systematically grow with average incomes, and whether financial development enhances the incomes of the poorest quintile. Following the methodology of Dollar and Kraay (2002), I find, once extending Dollar and Kraay’s data, their findings are robust to the Lucas critique and economic growth is important for poverty reduction universally. However, in comparison to other authors’ work I show financial development aids the incomes of the poor in certain regions, whilst it may be detrimental in others. This proposes evidence against a “one size fits all” model adding a further contribution to the literature on financial development and poverty.     

Japan’s banking crisis: An event-study perspective

We calculate abnormal stock returns for Japanese non-financial companies around major events associated with the banking crisis (1995–2000), and find that not all companies were equally sensitive to the malaise of the banking sector: the most affected were small, leveraged, low-tech companies with low credit ratings and low market to book ratios. This is consistent with “credit crunch” theories (companies with limited access to financial markets are sensitive to changes in bank lending) and with claims that innovation is rarely financed by bank debt. We do not find much evidence on the alleged misallocation of loans to support ailing bank clients.     

Value and capacity of tax shields: An analysis of the slicing approach

Correctly valuing tax shields has been a challenge in corporate valuation. A recent study by Liu (2009) introduces the slicing approach to separating the tax shield into the earned and unearned parts. Liu also shows that the MM results are wrong, and claims that the slicing approach has finally resolved the issue of pricing tax shields, thereby bringing closure to the topic. However, through careful analysis, we refute Liu’s main claims and restore the MM results. There are still open questions and the topic is not completely resolved as claimed in Liu (2009).     

Optionality and Daily Dynamics of Convenience Yield Behavior: An Empirical Analysis

In this article I empirically examine the daily convenience yield behavior for six commodity markets (crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, wheat, corn, and copper). The results illustrate that convenience yield behavior can be statistically explained within an option pricing framework. However, because one of the assumptions of the standard call option formula is not fully satisfied by the observed convenience yield series, an alternative option—exchange option—may be more appropriate for modeling the daily convenience yield behavior. Furthermore, I empirically test two hypotheses on convenience yield behavior. The results confirm the assertion that the convenience yield is increasing in marginal production costs. In addition, the findings offer limited support for the hypothesis that the convenience yield is decreasing in the serial autocorrelation of spot prices. The observed switch in the sign of regression coefficients as the order of autocorrelation increases is attributed to the probable presence of mean reversion in these markets.     

Bouncing out of the banking system: An empirical analysis of involuntary bank account closures

Using a new database, we document the determinants of involuntary consumer bank account closures. During 2001–2005, approximately 30 million debit accounts were involuntarily closed for excessive overdrafting. We focus on multiple factors to explain this phenomenon: household economics and financial decision-making ability, social capital, bank policies, and the alternative financial services sector. Involuntary closures are more frequent in US counties with a larger fraction of single mothers, lower education levels, lower wealth, and higher unemployment. Closures are higher in communities with high property crime rates and low electoral participation. Bank policies have an independent relation to closures, with counties having more competitive banking markets and more multi-market banks experiencing higher closure rates; bank structure also seems to affect the speed at which banks adjust their policies to changes in household income. Finally, using both national data and a state-level shift in regulation, we find evidence that access to payday lending leads to higher rates of involuntary account closure.     

Funding liquidity and equity liquidity in the subprime crisis period: Evidence from the ETF market

Using index and financial exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this study explores the relation between funding liquidity and equity liquidity during the subprime crisis period. Our empirical results show that a higher degree of funding illiquidity leads to an increase in bid–ask spread and a reduction in both market depth and net buying imbalance. Such findings indicate that an increase in funding liquidity can improve equity liquidity, with a stronger effect for the financial ETFs than for the index ETFs. Our study provides a better overall understanding of the effect of the liquidity–supplier funding constraint during the subprime crisis period.     

The effect of conference calls on equity incentives: An empirical investigation

Conference calls have become increasingly common in recent years, yet there is little empirical evidence regarding the effect of conference calls on executive compensation. In this study, we examine the effect of voluntary disclosures on equity incentives. We hypothesize that voluntary disclosures, as measured by conference calls, affect executive compensation contracts. Using a dataset of 6263 firm-year observations from both conference call and non-conference call firms, our results are consistent with the argument that the board of directors substitutes voluntary disclosures for more costly corporate governance mechanisms. Alternatively, in firms where CEOs have less equity incentives, the owners demand more voluntary disclosures. The results of this study should be of great importance to executives and capital market participants internationally, such as investors and analysts, since we provide evidence that conference calls affect incentive based compensation contracts, which were shown in prior studies to be value relevant.     

Chaebol-affiliated analysts: Conflicts of interest and market responses

Some Korean business groups, or chaebols, have a large stake in securities firms that issue analysts’ reports on their member companies. This structure is unique in that industrial companies and securities firms are affiliated and operate within the same group. We investigate the informational content of earnings forecasts, stock recommendations and target prices made by the chaebol-affiliated analysts, using data collected between 2000 and 2008. The chaebol analysts tend to make more optimistic earnings forecasts for the member companies. The mean EPS forecast error (5.36%) of the affiliated analysts for the same chaebol company are significantly larger than that (3.23%) of other chaebol and independent analysts. The chaebol analysts also assign better recommendations by almost one level and set target prices 2.5% higher to the member companies after controlling for company and analyst characteristics. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that chaebol analysts’ reports are biased by conflicts of interest. Stock market reactions do not differ in response to announcements of stock recommendations issued by affiliated vs. non-affiliated analysts. This suggests that capital markets do not recognize the conflicts of interest inherent in chaebol analysts’ reports.     

Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

We build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases in producers' hedging demand or speculators' capital constraints increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures. These in turn affect producers' equilibrium hedging and supply decision inducing a link between a financial friction in the futures market and the commodity spot prices. Consistent with the model, measures of producers' propensity to hedge forecasts futures returns and spot prices in oil and gas market data from 1979 to 2010. The component of the commodity futures risk premium associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage generate limits to hedging by producers, and affect equilibrium commodity supply and prices.     

International diversification: An extreme value approach

International diversification has costs and benefits, depending on the degree of asset dependence. We study international diversification with two dependence measures: correlations and extreme dependence. We discover that dependence has typically increased over time, and document mixed evidence on heavy tails in individual countries. Moreover, we uncover three additional findings related to dependence. First, the timing of downside risk differs depending on the region. Surprisingly, recent Latin American returns exhibit little downside risk. Second, Latin America exhibits a great deal of correlation complexity. Third, according to the empirical results, correlation does not vary with returns, but extreme dependence does vary monotonically with regional returns. Our results are consistent with a tradeoff between international diversification and systemic risk. They also suggest international limits to diversification, and that international investors demand some compensation for joint downside risk during extreme events.     

Financial distress and corporate risk management: Theory and evidence

This paper extends the current theoretical models of corporate risk-management in the presence of financial distress costs and tests the model's predictions using a comprehensive data set. I show that the shareholders optimally engage in ex-post (i.e., after the debt issuance) risk-management activities even without a pre-commitment to do so. The model predicts a positive (negative) relation between leverage and hedging for moderately (highly) leveraged firms. Consistent with the theory, empirically I find a non-monotonic relation between leverage and hedging. Further, the effect of leverage on hedging is higher for firms in highly concentrated industries.     

A case study of short-sale constraints and limits to arbitrage

This paper uses a unique data set of trades in a unique pair of securities that enables the precise identification of individual broker activity and the trade direction of that activity. We find direct evidence that the imposition (removal) of short-sale constraints limits (generates) trading activity consistent with brokers exploiting apparent mispricing.     

Affiliated firms and financial support: Evidence from Indian business groups

We investigate the functioning of internal capital markets in Indian Business Groups. We document that intragroup loans are an important means of transferring cash across group firms and are typically used to support financially weaker firms. Evidence suggests that an important reason for providing support may be to avoid default by a group firm and consequent negative spillovers to the rest of the group. Consistent with such spillovers, the first bankruptcy in a group is followed by significant drops in external financing, investments and profits of other firms in the group and an increase in their bankruptcy probability.     

Mapping global money laundering trends: Lessons from the pace setters

This paper uses an exploratory data analysis tool to map countries according to key factors—internet penetration rates, brain drain, efficiency of legal system, and effective tax and financial systems on the incidence of money laundering. Pace setters and laggards in the pervasiveness of money laundering for 88 countries will be identified. The results indicate that pace setters have high development of internet adoption, low incidence of brain drain, sound legal, tax and financial systems, and low incidence of money laundering. From the study, key policy initiatives adopted by pace-setter countries to reduce money laundering activities were examined.     

Information transfers and learning in financial markets: Evidence from short selling around insider sales

We document significant increases in short positions on days when company insiders sell their firms’ shares. Short selling increases before insider sales are publicly reported and often before insiders finish selling. Furthermore, the magnitude of short selling activity is consistent with short sellers’ knowledge of the insider’s rank (e.g., CEO, CFO, or a lower-ranked manager) and with knowledge of the unobservable size of the insider’s trading position. We show that short sellers’ superior timing is consistent with (i) monitoring of order flow and (ii) obtaining price-relevant information from brokerages that execute insider sales. Some of our results extend to insider purchases.     

Market discipline, financial crisis and regulatory changes: Evidence from Indonesian banks

Following the 1997/1998 financial crisis, Indonesian banks experienced major regulatory changes, including the adoption of the blanket guarantee scheme (BGS) in 1998, a limited guarantee (LG) in 2005, and changes in capital regulation in 1998 and 2001. We examine the impact of these regulatory changes on market discipline during the period 1995-2009. The price of deposits is used to measure market discipline in a dynamic panel data methodology on a sample of 104 commercial banks. We find a weakening of market discipline following the introduction of the BGS. The result is consistent with the deposit insurance scheme being credible in the lower capital requirement environment. The adoption of LG in a recovering economy also mitigates the role of market discipline. However, market discipline is more pronounced in listed banks than unlisted banks and in foreign banks than domestic banks. These results have important implications for banking regulation and supervision, particularly during a crisis period.     

Determinants of corporate cash policy: Insights from private firms

We provide one of the first large sample comparisons of cash policies in public and private U.S. firms. We first show that despite higher financing frictions, private firms hold, on average, about half as much cash as public firms do. By examining the drivers of cash policies for each group, we are able to attribute the difference to the much higher agency costs in public firms. By combining evidence from across public and private firms as well as within public firms across different qualities of governance, we are able to reconcile existing mixed evidence on the effects of agency problems on cash policies. Specifically, agency problems affect not only the target level of cash, but also how managers react to cash in excess of the target.