金融监管体系演进轨迹:国际经验及启示

金融监管主要有统一监管、分业监管、不完全统一监管三种模式。发达国家和新兴市场国家都特别注重健全和完善本国金融监管体系,并依据经济社会发展的需求,对金融监管体系进行适应性变革。从长远看,中国应当走金融统一监管或综合监管之路,变分业监管为统一监管,建立统一监管、分工协作、伞形管理的金融监管体系。加强宏观金融审慎监管、理顺协调沟通机制、处理好金融创新与金融监管的关系、保护金融消费者和投资者的权益、加强国际合作是全球金融监管体系的改革趋向。     

国际资本流动态势变化与新兴市场国家金融稳定

在新兴市场国家融入金融全球化过程中,进出入新兴市场国家国际资本流动规模不断激增,其波动性也越来越强,这使得国际资本流动对新兴市场国家金融稳定产生的冲击也越来越大,而且发达国家非常规货币政策对新兴市场国家的溢出效应也日益凸显。大规模国际资本流入新兴市场国家后,国际金融形势、市场预期等因素变化会使得国际资本流入突然停止并逆转流出,这在金融溢出效应和共同贷款者效应作用下,会对新兴市场国家金融稳定产生极大冲击。中国应采取多种措施积极应对,提升国际资本流动管理的有效性,审慎开放资本账户,积极深化与新兴市场国家的金融合作,努力维护中国和新兴市场的金融稳定。     

外资银行进入与东道国银行体系的效率改进--新兴市场国家的截面数据分析

20世纪90年代以来,外资银行在新兴市场国家银行体系中的重要性不断提高。外资银行的进入能否改善东道国银行体系的效率是学界非常关注的问题。鉴于此,本文专门针对新兴市场国家的经验情况展开分析,认为外资银行对东道国银行体系效率的改善有赖于有效竞争的环境,并受到一定的约束条件和传导路径的限制。东道国金融发展的深度、金融监管的水平、外资银行的数量及经营管理水平等都会对其银行体系效率的改进产生重要影响。通过截面数据分析,本文提出了新兴市场国家在外资银行大举进入的情况下,如何改进本国银行体系效率的相关政策主张。     

金融发展、金融结构与制造业服务化——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

在系统分析制造业服务化影响因素的基础上,基于2000年至2014年跨国行业层面样本数据考察了金融发展、金融结构对一国制造业服务化水平的影响。结果发现:金融发展水平的提高能够推动一国制造业服务化转型,但这种推动作用呈现出先上升后下降的倒"U"型特征;与市场主导型相比,银行主导型的金融结构更有利于制造业服务化转型;金融发展对制造业服务化的推动作用在中低收入水平的国家中更为明显,在高收入水平的国家中不显著;金融发展仅对一国基于国内服务投入的制造业服务化有推动作用,对基于国外服务投入的制造业服务化有"挤出作用"。政策含义是:为了实现中国制造业服务化转型,应进一步加强金融监管、强化金融服务实体经济的能力,推动中小银行发展的步伐。     

金融发展对国际收支的影响:基于政府治理的视角

近年来的全球失衡突出表现在美国持续收支逆差和新兴市场国家以及石油输出国持续顺差之间的矛盾,但是传统理论无法完全解释这一失衡现象。基于金融全球化加深的事实,我们重点考察金融发展是否加剧了国际收支失衡。我们将金融发展对国际收支失衡的影响按照传导机制的思路进行解释,并利用1994～2004年81个国家的数据进行了全球范围的实证研究,我们发现,这种传导机制的作用是非常显著的,并且这种显著性受制于各国的政府治理发展状况,所以传导作用因国而异,在发达国家、东亚新兴市场以及其他发展中国家的影响不同。因此,单个国家(如中国)并不是导致当前失衡的主要原因,失衡的中国责任论是不成立的。     

国际金融发展新格局下的中国金融监管改革战略研究

全球金融危机爆发以来,国际经济金融格局发生了深刻的变化,新的国际金融监管框架正在逐步确立。为此,中国应如何应对国际金融发展格局的变化,顺应国际金融监管的改革趋势,加快实施中国金融监管改革战略,建立和完善金融全球化背景下的国内金融监管框架,强化金融监管的国际协调与合作,为中国"开放型经济"发展提供金融安全保障,成为了极其重要的现实问题。本研究从考察危机后国际资本流动的格局变化与国际金融市场的发展动态入手,全面分析中国金融监管改革面临的机遇与挑战,并在此基础上提出了中国金融监管改革的战略构想。     

国际金融发展新格局下的中国金融监管改革战略研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

全球金融危机爆发以来,国际经济金融格局发生了深刻的变化,新的国际金融监管框架正在逐步确立。为此,中国应如何应对国际金融发展格局的变化,顺应国际金融监管的改革趋势,加快实施中国金融监管改革战略,建立和完善金融全球化背景下的国内金融监管框架,强化金融监管的国际协调与合作,为中国"开放型经济"发展提供金融安全保障,成为了极其重要的现实问题。本研究从考察危机后国际资本流动的格局变化与国际金融市场的发展动态入手,全面分析中国金融监管改革面临的机遇与挑战,并在此基础上提出了中国金融监管改革的战略构想。     

新兴市场国家(地区)的资本项目开放与金融脆弱

开放资本项目后,由于制度环境的缺陷以及制度质量提高的渐进性,新兴市场国家(地区)容易惠上过度借贷综合症,宏观经济也易出现过度波动,导致了金融脆弱性的增加、甚至金融危机的发生。鉴于资本项目开放后金融脆弱性增加,新兴市场国家(地区)在开放资本项目时必须保持资本项目开放度与本国制度质量提高的平衡。     

中国互联网金融的繁荣与危机

<正>互联网金融作为一个新兴事物,在世界主要国家都出现了落地形式。但是无论是从发展的规模还是从业务种类来看,中国的互联网金融所呈现出的行业性繁荣景象是其他国家都没有的,特别是互联网金融的发源地美国,其互联网金融的发展也难与中国相比。这背后的原因是什么?这种繁荣是否能够延续?一、为什么中国互联网金融发展如此迅猛——多重套利空间存在中国互联网金融发展如此迅猛,既有我国互联网金融企业机制灵活的内部原因,更有外部市场环境和政策环境造成的外部原     

中国转轨时期民营金融机构的发展困境：一个理论视角

本文从中国金融改革的初始条件出发，分析民营金融机构发展陷入困境的内在逻辑。指出在国有金融占据垄断地位、缺乏利率形成的市场基础而不存在真正的金融市场价格、对金融行业的准入采取行政审批制以及金融监管缺乏市场基础的初始条件下，国家自上而下推行的金融边际改革没有内生解，民营金融机构良性发展缺乏必需的制环境。     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

金融发展不平衡与全球贸易失衡——基于跨时贸易模型的研究

本文从全球金融发展不平衡的视角研究全球贸易失衡,建立一个流动性约束的跨时贸易模型,证明了金融发展差异、消费者跨期消费能力与贸易余额之间的关系。通过选取86个国家1990～2009年的面板数据实证研究发现,金融市场规模、金融市场活力等金融发展指标与贸易余额有着显著的负相关关系。全球贸易失衡问题的解决必须从根本上缩小各国金融发展的差异,发展新兴市场国家的本土金融市场,改变美国在全球金融体系中的主导和支配地位,构建多元化的国际金融体系。     

国内外金融危机预警模型述评

随着全球化进程的加快,金融市场逐渐成为各国经济运行的核心。金融体系本身的特殊性,其既给各国经济发展带来了机遇的同时也伴随了大量的风险。世界范围内接连不断的金融危机暴露出金融风险的严重紧迫性和金融危机的破坏性,尤其在发展中国家和新兴市场国家这一问题更加突出。因此,构建有效的金融危机预警体系,筛选恰当的预警指标,能够相对准确的预报警情,确定危机来源,判断危机大小就显得迫切重要。在此对国内外流行的金融危机预警方法的基本原理、模型的发展和缺陷进行梳理和对比分析,为我国金融危机预警研究工作提供参考。     

External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers

The external balance sheets of many emerging market countries are distinguished by their holdings of assets primarily in the form of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, while their liabilities are predominantly equity, either foreign direct investment or portfolio equity. We investigate the claim that this composition served as a buffer for the emerging markets during the global financial crisis of 2008–09. We use data from a sample of 67 emerging market and advanced economies, and several indicators of the crisis are utilized: GDP growth rates in 2008–09, the occurrence of bank crises and the use of IMF credit. Our results show that those countries that issued FDI liabilities had higher growth rates, fewer bank crises and were less likely to borrow from the IMF. Countries with debt liabilities, on the other hand, had more bank crises and were more likely to use IMF credit. We conclude that the “long debt, short equity” (hold debt assets, issue equity liabilities) strategy of emerging markets did mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis.     

金融危机对新兴市场国家贸易影响的动态效应研究

在经济全球化的大背景下,金融危机严重影响部分国家甚至全球的经济运行。作为目前全球增长的最大贡献力量,以出口导向为主要特征的新兴市场国家,面临金融危机时常表现出高频性和脆弱性。文章通过引力模型的实证分析得出：危机爆发年中,货币贬值都对进口和出口产生消极影响,且对进口的影响程度大于出口;危机爆发接下来的两年期间,货币贬值促进出口增长,进口依然下降。另外,金融危机对国际贸易的冲击反应表明：总体上,危机期间,进口不断下降,而对出口的影响轨迹在1980-1995年间呈＂U＂型,在1996-2007年间表现为短期即刻下降,而后迅速上升,第二年后恢复并超过危机前正常水平。     

Cross‐border Mergers and Acquisitions and Financial Development: Evidence from Emerging Asia

This paper examines the relationship between cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and financial development in emerging Asian economies. Bilateral cross‐border M&A data for nine emerging Asian economies covering 2000–2009 are analyzed with a sample selection model and a panel data model. The estimation results show that although the banking sector still plays a crucial role in facilitating cross‐border M&A, the role of equity markets has increased in importance because, in addition to cash, the issuance of common stock and the exchange of stocks have become popular forms of payment for M&A deals. Because of the relatively thin market, the primary corporate bond market plays a limited role in supporting cross‐border M&A, which is in contrast to the primary public bond market. However, for the secondary market, the corporate bond market is more effective in facilitating cross‐border M&A. The results also show that financial development in terms of stock and bond markets in their home countries tends to become more important when the target firms reside in more developed countries. In addition to financial development, the paper shows that most cross‐border M&A are invested in technology‐related and resource‐based industries while cheap labor industries are relatively less attractive.     

我国对新兴市场的出口潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型

通过构建贸易引力模型来测算我国对其他新兴市场国家和发展中国家的出口潜力,认为我国应当积极拓展对其贸易不足的国家。通过对进口国家的政局和市场因素,以及国内的政策、商品和企业等5个方面分析,分别从政府部门、金融保险机构和企业等部门寻求措施来拓展新兴市场和发展中国家市场。     

The value of institutions for financial markets: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets view election years negatively.     

Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices

This paper argues that, in analyzing the choice of exchange rate regimes in developing and transition countries in the present global economic context, it is essential to distinguish between those countries with substantial involvement in international financial markets and those where involvement is limited. For developing countries with important linkages to modern global capital markets, an important lesson of the recent crises in emerging market countries is that the requirements for sustaining pegged exchange rate regimes have become significantly more demanding. For many emerging market countries, therefore, regimes that allow substantial actual exchange rate flexibility are probably desirable. If supported by the requisite policy discipline and institutional structures, however, hard currency pegs may also be appropriate for some of these countries. Beyond the emerging markets countries, for many developing countries with less linkage to global capital markets, traditionalexchange rate pegs and intermediate regimes are more viable and retain important advantages. J. Japan. Int. Econ., March 2001, 15(1), pp. 68–101. Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 20431. Copyright 2001 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F31, F33, F41.